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Published on 6/06/2020 3:26:30 PM | Source: Motilal Oswal Financial Securities Ltd

Buy Larsen and Toubro Infotech Ltd For Target Rs. 2060 - Motilal Oswal

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Healthy deal wins; Stable commentary

Continue to expect industry leading ‘growth’; Reiterate Buy

* Strong exit growth in FY20 coupled with healthy deal wins reiterates our confidence that L&T Infotech (LTI) could be one of the few outliers reporting revenue/earnings growth in FY21. The company’s twisted seasonality (better 2H) should also help it dodge the peak COVID-19 impact (expected over 1H) to an extent. Notwithstanding some price concessions, we expect net margins to remain close to the lower end of the normal year guidance band (14-15%). Top clients/BFSI performance is a key monitorable.

* We keep our estimates largely unchanged and expect LTI to be a key beneficiary of the accelerated digital adoption in the post COVID-19 world. Reiterate Buy

 

Better-than-expected and broad-based performance

* In 4QFY20, revenue (USD)/EBIT (INR)/PAT increased 16%/15%/13% YoY (v/s est. 14%/10%/2% YoY). For FY20, Revenue (USD) / EBIT (INR)/PAT increased by 13%/1%/0% YoY.

* Reported growth (4.7% QoQ, CC) was stronger than our expectations (3%). Further, growth was broad-based across geographies and verticals.  While RoW (18.1% QoQ, CC) growth was lumpy partly due to the low base, core geographies reported healthy growth despite the COVID-19 impact.

* Growth in the top-5 (-1% QoQ, CC)/Top-10 (2% QoQ, CC) accounts was weak due to the high base in Dec’19. Overall growth during Mar’20 was driven by (1) addition of new clients, and (2) mining/scaling up of small accounts.

* Adjusted for one-time donation to PM-CARES fund, EBIT margin improved 110bp QoQ. Major drivers were INR depreciation (50bp impact) and favorable calendar (50bp impact).

 

Key highlights from management commentary

* Even as management anticipates demand pressures, they remain optimistic on performance given the strong order book and deal pipeline. The company expects a revenue dip in Jun’20, in line with industry.

* Management hinted toward potential announcements of deal closures in Jun’20, despite some delays and deferrals being witnessed currently.

* Across verticals, Manufacturing, Automotive and Oil & Gas would be the most impacted, while CPG and Pharma are expected to outperform the company’s growth in the coming quarters.

* Within BFS – even as no impact is expected in the near future – rising defaults in banks could affect performance over 2HFY21.

* While pricing is expected to be largely stable, management has hinted at near-term challenges on account of client specific concessions.

 

Valuation view – industry leading growth to defend rich multiples

*  LTI’s recent client addition across buckets was the strongest and broadbased v/s comparable prior periods. It has recently added several marquee logos (e.g. Standard Chartered). Given its proven account mining capabilities, this should provide good headroom for incremental growth.

* Industry leading ‘growth’ plus prudent capital allocation should defend its rich multiples. Our fair valuation is 19x 1-year forward P/E, at 15% discount to TCS. Reiterate Buy.

 

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