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Published on 28/08/2020 10:50:22 AM | Source: Geojit Financial Services Ltd

Agri Picks Daily Technical Report 28 August 2020 - Geojit Financial

Posted in Commodities Reports| #Commodity Tips #Geojit Financial Services Ltd

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Spices

* Jeera September futures on NCDEX ended down on profit booking on Thursday. Rise in arrivals in the spot market weighed on as well.

* Exports of jeera were at 210,000 tn, up 16% from 180,300 tn in 2018-19 according to the Spices Board.

* According to the Spices Board, jeera production for the year 2019-20 is pegged at 540750 tonnes, down 21.8 per cent on yoy basis.

* According to the Spices Board, exports rose 27 per cent during Apr-Dec 2019 to 167000 compared to same period last year.

* Coriander September futures on NCDEX hit multi-month high on Thursday before trimming gains to end the session rather flat. Firm demand lend support.

* All spot markets in Rajasthan will be shut for a week from Tuesday in protest against the Centre's Ordinance on inter-state trade of farm produce. Kota, Baran and Ramganj are key coriander trading centres in the state.

* Coriander exports from India were up 3% on year at 50,250 tn in the last financial year according to the Spices Board.  Spices Board has forecast coriander production at 755,740 tn, up 25.9% on year due to a sharp rise in acreage.

* According to Spices Board of India data, coriander exports were at 36750 tonnes during Apr-Dec 2019, up by one per cent compared to same period last year.

* Choppy trades were witnessed in NCDEX turmeric September futures on Thursday.

* Concerned over the fall in area under turmeric, the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Commerce has recommended the government to take immediate measures like implementing minimum support price to encourage farmers.

* India exported 136,000 tn of turmeric in 2019-20, up 2% on year according to the Spices Board.

* Futures contract of turmeric expiring in April on National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange will be available for trade from Oct 1 now instead of Sep 1 earlier, the bourse said in a circular. Currently, futures contracts expiring in August, September, October and November are available for trading. The contract expiring in December will be available for trading from Monday and would continue to trade as per existing contract specifications.  Spices Board pegs 2019-20 turmeric crop at 938,955 tn, dn 2.2% YoY

* For the period Apr-Dec 2019, India exported 101,500 tn of turmeric, marginally up

 

Oilseed

* Mixed sentiments witnessed in the oilseed basket yesterday. MCX Aug CPO traded higher on back of firm demand in the spot market along with gains in BMD Malaysian palm oil prices. Sep Soy oil futures traded higher on firm demand ahead of festival season.

* NCDEX Sep Soybean settled down as traders refrained to buy at higher price levels. However, gains in U.S CBOT soybean prices cushioned major fall. While, Sep Mustard seed prices traded down as government increased mustard seed output during 2019-20 season. The government estimates mustard output at 9.1 mln tn against 8.7 mln tn the previous year.

* Soybean output is estimated at 11.2 mln tn in 2019-20 against 12.2 mln tn the previous year, according to the farm ministry's fourth advance estimate.

* The acreage under soybean across the country rose 6.8% on year to 11.9 mln ha as of Thursday, according to data from the farm ministry. The Union Cabinet approved a hike in minimum support price for 14 major kharif crops. MSP for soybean hiked by Rs.170 to 3880 from 3710 per 100 kg.  Soymeal exports plunged 34.2% on year to 50,000 tn in July, according SOPA. During Oct-Jul, India exported 608,000 tn soymeal as against 2.0 mln tn in the year-ago period.

* Crushing of mustard seeds by mills in the country surged 52.4% on year to 800,000 tn in July, according to Mustard Oil Producers Association of India.

* India's edible oil imports rose 13% on year to over 1.5 mln tn in July, according to SEA. For Nov-Jul, edible oil imports were at 9.6 mln tn, lower than 10.8 mln tn during the year-ago period. During July, there were no imports of RBD palmolein as compared with 264,718 tn a year ago. The imports of crude palm oil and crude palm kernel oil rose 50% on year in July. Imports of soyoil and sunflower oil were also 52% and 4% higher on year, respectively, in July. As on Aug 1, 765,000 tn edible oil were at ports and 770,000 tn in the pipeline.

* The US Department of Agriculture has pegged global oilseed production in 2020-21 at 610.4 mln tn, compared with its estimate of 577.2 mln tn for 2019-20, and 604.2 mln tn estimated in July, the agency said in its report for August. They pegged global soybean output around 33.0 mln tn higher on year at 370.4 mln tn. For Brazil, soybean output is seen rising by 5.0 mln tn to 131.0 mln tn.Production of the oilseed in the US, is also seen rising by around 24.0 mln tn to 120.4 mln tn. In Argentina, soybean output is expected to be 3.8 mln tn higher at 53.5 mln tn.

* India's oilseed imports nearly doubled to 520,871 tn in 2019-20 (Apr-Mar), according to data from The Solvent Extractors' Association of India. During 2019-20, India imported 520,871 tn of oilseeds compared to 258,742 tn a year ago. Major oilseeds imports include soybean, sesame seed and cottonseed.

* India's mustard meal exports jumped 72% on year to 122,573 tn in June due to recovery in demand from major buyers, according to the data released by The Solvent Extractors' Association of India.

* Soybean Processors Association of India is expecting import of crude degummed soyoil to hit a record high of 500,000 tn in July due to a recovery in demand with the easing of lockdown norms, the association's President Davish Jain said. India's soymeal exports fell nearly 17% on year to 60,000 tn in June and around 71% lower on year at 573,000 tn during Oct-Jun, according to SOPA.

* India's oilmeal exports rose marginally on year to 229,230 tn in June due to recovery in demand from major buyers, according to the data released by SEA. However, the overall export of oilmeals during Apr-Jun fell 15% on year at 579,110 tn, the data showed. In June, soymeal exports slumped 9.4% on year to 56,638 tn, the association said. During Apr-Jun, South Korea purchased 182,136 tn of oilmeals compared to 280,429 tn during same period last year, while Vietnam bought 120,666 tn of oilmeals against to 106,898 tn. The US imported 45,308 tn of oilmeals compared to 50,605 tn a year ago, and Thailand purchased 65,188 tn of oilmeals against 74,338 tn a year ago from India.

* Mustard crop for 2019-20 (Jul-Jun) is pegged at 9.1 mln tn as against 9.3 mln tn produced a year ago, farm ministry data. Farmers across the country have sown mustard across 6.9 mln ha as of Thursday, down 0.4% on year, farm ministry data showed.

* According to Government 2nd advance estimate, castor production in 2019-20 is expected at 2.0 mln tn, up from the previous estimate of 1.7 mln tn. India's castor oil exports fell 6% on year to 38,199 tn in January, according to Solvent Extractors' Association of India's data. For Apr-Jan, exports were also down at 441,030 tn, compared with 472,192 tn during the year-ago period. In 2018-19 (Apr-Mar), India's castor oil exports slipped to 571,985 tn in 2018-19 from 651,326 tn in the previous year.

* Malaysia's crude palm oil output fell 4.1% on month to around 1.8 mln tn in July, according to Malaysian Palm Oil Board. Total palm oil stocks were down 10.6% at nearly 1.7 mln tn. Malaysia's palm oil exports in July rose 4.2% at around 1.8 mln tn, and its biodiesel exports jumped to 38,947 tn against 16,022 tn in June.

* Malaysia's palm oil exports were pegged 21% down on month to 925,083 tn during Aug 1-20, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said.

 

Cotton

* Govt cuts 2019-20 cotton output view to 35.5 mln bales vs 36.0 mln.

* Revenue of cotton yarn spinners is expected to decline 30-35% in 2020-21 (Apr-Mar) due to tepid domestic and export demand because of disruptions caused by COVID-19, research agency CRISIL said in a report.

* Farmers have sown cotton across 12.8 mln ha in the 2020-21 (Jul-Jun) season, up 3.4% from a year ago, as of Thursday, farm ministry showed. Area under the crop is slightly higher than the normal of 12.2 mln ha for the period, based on the average for the last five years, data showed.

* The Cotton Association of India has raised its estimates for exports for 2019-20 (Oct-Sep) to 5.0 mln bales (1 bale = 170 kg), from 4.7 mln bales projected in the previous month. Around 4.3 mln bales are estimated to have been shipped by end of July and shipment of further 700,000 bales is estimated to take place during August and September.The association has also revised upward its output estimate to 35.5 mln bales, against 33.6 mln bales estimated a month ago. Carryover stocks in the country for 2019-20 season are seen at 10.3 mln bales, higher from 5.6 mln bales projected in the previous month. Estimates for imports are seen at 1.6 mln bales, against 1.5 mln bales in the previous month. Domestic consumption is expected to be 25.0 mln bales, lower from 28.0 mln bales projected in the previous month.

* India's cotton exports are expected to touch 6.0 mln bales (1 bale = 170 kg) in the current marketing year 2019-20 (Oct-Sep) due to strong demand and lower domestic prices, which have made foreign sales economically viable, trade officials said.

* The US Department of Agriculture has scaled up its estimate for India's cotton output in 2020-21 (Aug-Jul) to 29.7 mln bales (1 US bale = 218 kg) from 28.5 mln bales projected the previous month.The agency, has lowered its estimate for India's cotton imports to 1.0 mln bales from 1.1 mln bales pegged a month ago. Exports are seen at 4.9 mln bales, as against 4.5 mln bales earlier. Consumption is seen at 22.5 mln bales, compared with the 23.0 mln bales estimated the previous month.As a result, the agency has raised its estimate for India's ending stocks for the year to 22.5 mln bales, as against 21.3 mln bales projected a month ago.

* The USDA has scaled up its global cotton output estimate for 2020-21 (Aug-Jul) to 117.5 mln bales from 116.3 mln bales projected the previous month. World production is 1.3 mln bales higher. Global cotton consumption is seen at 113.1 mln bales, as against the 114.3 mln bales projected in the previous month. Global exports for 2020-21 are seen at 41.6 mln bales, compared with 41.8 mln bales estimated a month ago. Ending stocks are seen at 104.9 mln bales, as against 102.8 mln bales. The agency has also scaled up its estimate for cotton output in the US to 18.1 mln bales from 17.5 mln bales projected last month.

* The International Cotton Advisory Committee has scaled up its estimate for global consumption in 2020-21 (Aug-Jul) to 23.9 mln tn, compared with 23.3 mln tn projected in the previous month. They also revised upwards its estimate for global cotton exports for the ongoing season to 9.1 mln tn, compared with 8.6 mln tn projected in the previous month.Global production is seen at 24.8 mln tn, compared with 24.9 mln tn estimated in July. Ending stock is estimated at 22.9 mln tn against 24.0 mln tn projected a month ago.

* The UK-based Cotton Outlook has scaled down its estimate for global output of the fibre in 2020-21 (AugJul) to 24.4 mln tn from 24.6 mln tn projected last month, the agency said in its July report. The fall in production estimate is primarily attributed to a smaller crop in the US and African Franc zone. Global cotton consumption in 2020-21 is pegged at 23.5 mln tn, marginally lower than 23.6 mln tn projected a month ago owing to changes for Brazil and the US.Ending stocks of the fibre for 2020-21 to 858,000 tn, against 998,000 tn projected last month.

* The government has raised the support price of medium staple cotton by 260 rupees per 100 kg to 5,515 rupees, and that of long staple by 275 rupees to 5,825 rupees.

* Govt ups 2019-20 cotton output view to 36.05 mln bales vs 34.89 mln. USDA has pegged India's cotton acreage at 12.5 mln ha for the coming season, compared with 13.3 mln ha in 2019-20.

 

 

Other

* Chana September futures on NCDEX continued rising on Thursday, hitting its highest level in 20-months on robust festival demand.

* The government's scheme to offer free pulses during lockdown to migrant workers and public distribution system beneficiaries helped the National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation of India clear 1.5 mln tn carryover chana from 2018-19 (Jul-Jun) stock, the agency's Additional Managing Director S.K. Singh said.

* The Madhya Pradesh government has wrapped up procurement of mustard, chana and masur harvested in 2019-20 (Jul-Jun), an official with state government said. The state -run and Centre's nodal agencies collectively procured 706,314 tn chana from 263,000 farmers in Madhya Pradesh in 2020-21 rabi marketing season starting April. Of the total purchased pulses, 704,922 tn was accepted while the rest rejected, the official said.

* The National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation of India wrapped up chana procurement for 2020-21 (Apr-Mar) rabi marketing season by Jul 31, an official with the agency said. It procured 2.14 mln tn chana this year. Over 706,313 tn chana was procured from farmers in Madhya Pradesh, 128,000 tn in Andhra Pradesh, 102,000 tn in Karnataka, 615,666 tn in Rajasthan, 370,718 tn in Maharashtra, 123,766 tn in Gujarat, 48,000 tn in Telangana, 38,498 tn in Uttar Pradesh, and rest in Haryana, the official said.

* Both guarseed and guargum September futures on NCDEX ended down on Thursday

* According to the Rajasthan Agriculture Department, as of 18 Aug, guar has been sown across 2384700 hectares of land, up 79.5 per cent compared to the same period last year.

* Export of guar gum have fell in the month of Jun-20 by 16 percent compared to previous month. India exported around 14358 tonnes of guar gum at an average FoB of $ 1742 per tonne in the month of Jun-20 compared to 17085 tonnes in May-20 at an average FoB of $ 1360 per tonne. Of the total 2206 tonnes have been exported to Russia.

* Export of guar split have fell in the month of Jun-20. Exports in the month of Jun-20 are down by around 87% compared to previous month. India exported around 2240 tonnes of guar split in the month of Jun-20 at an average FoB of $ 916 per tonne compared to 17642 tonnes in May-20 at an average FoB of $ 1740 per tonne. Of the total quantity, around 2120 tonnes have been exported to China and 120 tonnes to US.

* Natural rubber in the Indian markets rose on Thursday on firm demand and supply crunch.

* The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries expects the global consumption of natural rubber to rise 2.6% on year in Aug-Oct on the back of stimulus measures the world over and improvement in economic activity in major consumers like the US and

 

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