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KIFS Trade Capital

Published on 22/02/2020 3:27:33 PM

Market Outlook Of 24 February 2020

Bank Nifty

Bank nifty witnessed a selling pressure for the week as index made a low of 30252 and managed to close below 31000 level. Technically, on higher time frame mainly on weekly price chart the price action formed a weak candle. The crucial support for bears will be placed near 30200 level in proximity of 40 day moving average while the first line of defense for bulls will be placed near 31530 level in proximity of 13 day moving average.

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KIFS Trade Capital

Published on 22/02/2020 3:26:53 PM

Market Outlook Of 24 February 2020

Nifty

Bears managed to erased first half gains to settle weeks last session on negative note, the key benchmark index declined by 32.60 points or 0.27% and settle above 12000 mark. Technically on weekly price chart the key benchmark index took support of 11900 level in proximity of 50% Fibonacci retracement, if bears continue to show strength and surpass 11900 level we may see further selloff towards 11850 level in upcoming week where resistance is place near 12150 level

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LKP Securities

Published on 20/02/2020 5:15:08 PM

Last trading day of week closes on lackluster note; Sensed slips over 150 points

Last trading day of the week closed on lackluster note, with the Sensex and the Nifty ending lower by around 150 and 50 points, respectively. The start of the session was on a cautious note, impacted by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das’ statement that the coronavirus outbreak will have a limited impact on India but the global GDP and trade will definitely get affected due to the large size of the Chinese economy. In afternoon deals, key benchmarks managed to keep their heads in green terrain for some duration, despite weak cues from the global markets.

But, in the last leg of the trade, losses got intensified over the street, amid Fitch Ratings’ report stating that with deceleration in growth and tight liquidity conditions, the country's financial institution sector may continue to face challenging operating environment. Traders overlooked a report that the CCEA approved a new central sector scheme ‘Formation and Promotion of Farmer Produce Organizations’ to form and promote 10,000 new FPOs in five years period from 2019-20 to 2023-24 with budgetary support of Rs 4,496 crore as part of its efforts to cut production cost and boost income of farming community.

On the global front, European markets were trading in red, as Germany's consumer confidence is set to ease slightly in March, as a modest gain in economic expectations were offset by moderate losses in income outlook and the propensity to buy. The forward-looking GfK consumer confidence index fell to 9.8 points for March from 9.9 in February.  Asian markets ended mixed, after Singapore wholesale trade declined in the fourth quarter. At current prices, domestic wholesale sales declined a seasonally adjusted 8.5 percent quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter, following a 0.2 percent fall in the previous quarter.

Back home, the automobile sector stocks ended higher, even after Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA) said that passenger vehicle (PV) retail sales in January declined 4.61 per cent to 2,90,879 units as compared to same month last year, hit by tepid response by end customers. Further, stocks related to the pharmaceutical industry remained in watch, as the Niti Aayog held a meeting with the captains of industry in the pharmaceutical sector to discuss the impact of disruption in supplies of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) following the coronavirus outbreak in China.

Finally, the BSE Sensex slipped 152.88 points or 0.37% to 41,170.12, while the CNX Nifty was down by 45.05 points or 0.37% to 12,080.85.

The BSE Sensex touched high and low of 41,399.93 and 41,134.31, respectively and there were 12 stocks advancing against 18 stocks declining on the index.

The broader indices ended in green; the BSE Mid cap index rose 0.40%, while Small cap index was up by 0.51%.

The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Metal up by 0.90%, Telecom up by 0.55%, PSU up by 0.47%, Bankex up by 0.39% and Power up by 0.34%, while Energy down by 0.95%, Oil & Gas down by 0.78%, IT down by 0.75%, Consumer Durables down by 0.68% and FMCG down by 0.59% were the top losing indices on BSE.

The top gainers on the Sensex were Indusind Bank up by 3.57%, Tata Steel up by 2.48%, SBI up by 2.31%, ONGC up by 1.13% and Power Grid up by 1.01%. On the flip side, Asian Paints down by 2.30%, Hindustan Unilever down by 1.85%, TCS down by 1.75%, Nestle down by 1.38% and Tech Mahindra down by 1.36% were the top losers.

Meanwhile, underlining the telecom crisis in India is not limited to adjusted gross revenue (AGR) related issues, Former Finance Secretary Subhash Chandra Garg has said the government should offer a one-time settlement scheme to the telecom companies to pay the principal due amount as per the AGR definition and waive the penal interest and penalties.

Subhash Chandra Garg also noted that the telecom business -- both voice and data -- is headed towards becoming a duopoly (Jio and Airtel) with the remaining two players, Vodafone Idea and BSNL-MTNL, hurtling towards eventual shutdown, which might as well be an abrupt collapse.

Former Finance Secretary also wondered whether the proposal of the government to put in billions of dollars (over Rs 70,000 crore) to revive BSNL-MTNL is advisable or not as the country is facing massive economic slowdown.

Meanwhile, the Supreme Court last week rejected a plea by telecom firms including Bharti Airtel and Vodafone Idea for extension in the payment schedule and asked them to deposit an estimated Rs 1.47 lakh crore in past dues for spectrum and licenses by March 17.

The CNX Nifty traded in a range of 12,152.00 and 12,071.45. There were 21 stocks advancing against 29 stocks declining on the index.

The top gainers on Nifty were Indusind Bank up by 3.40%, Zee Entertainment up by 3.29%, Tata Steel up by 2.37%, SBI up by 2.36% and Power Grid up by 1.25%. On the flip side, Cipla down by 2.41%, Asian Paints down by 2.12%, Hindustan Unilever down by 1.92%, TCS down by 1.79% and Tech Mahindra down by 1.60% were the top losers.

European markets were trading mostly in red; France’s CAC decreased 9.16 points or 0.15% to 6,102.08 and Germany’s DAX fell 25.49 points or 0.18% to 13,763.51, while UK’s FTSE 100 was up by 7.58 points or 0.1% to 7,464.60.

Asian markets ended mixed on Thursday as worries remained over the global economic impact from the corona virus outbreak. New cases in China slowed again with just 394 new cases from the previous day. Still, China has reported 74,576 total cases, with 2,118 deaths. Meanwhile, rise in corona virus cases in South Korea and Japan, offsetting hopes of further stimulus in China. Chinese stocks ended up after Chinese Central Bank (PBOC) cut its benchmark one-year loan prime rate by 10 basis points and the five-year loan prime rate by 5 basis points, as anticipated, adding to a slew of fiscal and monetary measures in recent weeks aimed at mitigating the economic damage. Further, Japanese stocks closed higher as a sharp sell-off in the yen helped lift exporters.

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LKP Securities

Published on 20/02/2020 1:32:08 PM

Bourses Turn Positive In Afternoon Deals

Indian equities erased all losses to turn positive in afternoon session, on account of buying in Healthcare, Metal and Auto stocks. The sentiments turned optimistic as the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) approved a new central sector scheme ‘Formation and Promotion of Farmer Produce Organizations (FPOs)’ to form and promote 10,000 new FPOs in five years period from 2019-20 to 2023-24 with budgetary support of Rs 4,496 crore as part of its efforts to cut production cost and boost income of farming community. Traders also took support from Food and Consumer Affairs Minister Ram Vilas Paswan’s statement that the government will frame rules and set up an authority to implement the new Consumer Protection Act by April 2020. The law seeks to revamp the process of administration and settlement of consumer disputes, with strict penalties, including jail term for adulteration and misleading ads by firms. However, weak trend in Asian markets coupled with depreciation in rupee value against the dollar, weighed on the sentiments. On the sectoral front, Pharma stocks remained in focus as the Niti Aayog held a meeting with the captains of industry in the pharmaceutical sector to discuss the impact of disruption in supplies of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) following the coronavirus outbreak in China.

On the global front, Asian markets were trading mostly in red, as virus cases rose in South Korea and Japan even as China added more stimulus via a rate cut to support its economy. Back home, the BSE Sensex is currently trading at 41363.54, up by 40.54 points or 0.10% after trading in a range of 41220.81 and 41399.93. There were 16 stocks advancing against 14 stocks declining on the index.

The broader indices were trading in green; the BSE Mid cap index rose 0.93%, while Small cap index was up by 0.81%.

The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Healthcare up by 1.01%, Metal up by 0.98%, Basic Materials up by 0.84%, Auto up by 0.81% and Industrials up by 0.73%, while Consumer Durables down by 0.37%, Telecom down by 0.36%, Energy down by 0.34% and FMCG down by 0.25% were the top losing indices on BSE.

The top gainers on the Sensex were Indusind Bank up by 3.90%, Tata Steel up by 2.59%, ONGC up by 1.87%, SBI up by 1.86% and Sun Pharma up by 1.60%. On the flip side, Hindustan Unilever down by 1.49%, Asian Paints down by 1.43%, Nestle down by 0.99%, Bharti Airtel down by 0.86% and Titan Company down by 0.59% were the top losers.

Meanwhile, the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA), chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has approved a new central sector scheme ‘Formation and Promotion of Farmer Produce Organizations (FPOs)’ to form and promote 10,000 new FPOs in five years period from 2019-20 to 2023-24 with budgetary support of Rs 4,496 crore as part of its efforts to cut production cost and boost income of farming community.  Further, an amount of Rs 2,369 crore has been estimated for hand-holding of these FPOs during 2024-25 to 2027-28 period, taking the total size to Rs 6,865 crore.

The scheme also envisages a further committed liability of Rs 2,369 crore for 2024-25 to 2027-28 period towards hand-holding of each FPO for five years from its aggregation and formation, taking the total size to Rs 6,865 crore. There will be three implementing agencies to form and promote FPOs, namely Small Farmers Agri-business Consortium (SFAC), National Cooperative Development Corporation (NCDC) and National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD). States may also, if they desire, nominate their implementing agency in consultation with Union Agriculture Ministry. The scheme is likely to create 1.5 lakh jobs.

Small and marginal farmers do not have economic strength to apply production technology, services and marketing including value addition. Through formation of FPOs, farmers will have better collective strength for better access to quality input, technology, credit and better marketing access through economies of scale for better realization of income. Initially, the minimum number of members in FPO will be 300 in plain areas and 100 in North East and hilly areas. However, the minimum number of membership can be revised with approval of Union Agriculture Minister.

The CNX Nifty is currently trading at 12139.85, up by 13.95 points or 0.12% after trading in a range of 12092.80 and 12152.00. There were 29 stocks advancing against 21 stocks declining on the index.

The top gainers on Nifty were Indusind Bank up by 3.77%, Tata Steel up by 2.64%, Yes Bank up by 2.55%, Zee Entertainment up by 2.52% and ONGC up by 1.97%. On the flip side, Asian Paints down by 1.48%, Hindustan Unilever down by 1.42%, Cipla down by 1.15%, Nestle down by 1.10% and Indian Oil Corp. down by 1.01% were the top losers.

Asian markets were trading mostly in red; Hang Seng decreased 53.29 points or 0.19% to 27,602.52, Taiwan Weighted dropped 33.75 points or 0.29% to 11,725.09, KOSPI fell 14.84 points or 0.67% to 2,195.50 and Straits Times trembled 13.54 points or 0.42% to 3,200.17.

On the flip side, Jakarta Composite soared 7.92 points or 0.13% to 5,936.71, Shanghai Composite gained 43.39 points or 1.46% to 3,018.79 and Nikkei 225 surged 78.45 points or 0.34% to 23,479.15.

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Ventura Securities Ltd

Published on 20/02/2020 11:58:51 AM

We initiate a Long straddle for NIFTY Index at 12150. Expiry : 27 Feb 2020, Buy 1 lot NIFTY 12150 CE at 69, Buy 1 lot NIFTY 12150 PE at 76, Total Investment : 10875, Max gain : Unlimited, Max Loss ? 10875, BEP ? 12295 & 12005. VENTURA 

SMS subject to  Disclosures and Disclaimer goo.gl/8bCMyQ

ICICI Securities

Published on 20/02/2020 11:50:25 AM

Bank Nifty: Current leg of consolidation likely to continue with support pegged at 30500…

* The Bank Nifty traded in a broader range amid high volatility for the week where stocks like SBI and leaders from private banks performed well, which provided a cushion to the index. However, late selling in other private banks like Kotak Mahindra Bank, IndusInd Bank and HDFC Bank kept the index move in check

* For the week, the OI rose marginally in the past two days whereas the index fell 500 points indicating short accumulation. Crude oil prices rose from the bottom on account of a pick-up in demand in China. If crude oil continues its northward journey, then the rupee may depreciate towards 71.8 levels. This will act as negative sentiment for the banking and financial space

* During the week, Put OI blocks were seen in 30500 strike along with declining IVs indicating major support. However, additions in 31200 and 31500 strike Calls are indicating a narrow trading range for the index

* The current price ratio of the Bank Nifty/Nifty has slipped towards 2.55 levels. The ratio has seen multiple support near 2.52 levels from where it had reverted earlier. We feel the Bank Nifty has a major support at 30500 and major selling can only be seen if the index manages to violate these levels on a closing basis

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ICICI Securities

Published on 20/02/2020 11:49:54 AM

Nifty consolidation may continue with support at 11950…

* After witnessing a sharp pullback from 11600, the Nifty consolidated above 12000 for the whole week. The resilient global equity markets have also supported the Indian markets from witnessing any major profit booking trend

* FII flows have remained volatile in equity markets but inflows are picking up in debt markets in this month. This is expected to keep yields lower. This should help banking stocks to recover after the recent consolidation

* The markets have remained quite stock specific with participation seen from consumption, pharma and IT stocks

* Volatility has come down sharply since last week. However, it has been reverting higher from lower support of 12%. This may continue the consolidation in the domestic markets

* Rupee resilience between 71 and 72 is likely to continue, which may also support equity markets from any deep profit booking trend. If the big outflow figures are not seen from FIIs, it may also lead to consolidation, going ahead

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HDFC Securities

Published on 20/02/2020 10:51:12 AM

BankNifty-Daily EOD (Spot/Cash):

SUPPORTS:

Technical Supports – 30600 – 30250.

RESISTANCES:

Technical Resistances – 30998 – 31400.

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HDFC Securities Limited (HSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000002475.

HDFC Securities

Published on 20/02/2020 10:50:38 AM

Nifty, BankNify-Support & Resistance HDFC Securities

SUPPORTS:

Technical Supports – 12030 – 11950.

RESISTANCES:

Technical Resistances – 12160 – 12220.

For Complete Report And Disclaimer Click Here- https://bit.ly/2SKFztI

HDFC Securities Limited (HSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000002475.

HDFC Securities

Published on 20/02/2020 10:47:41 AM

Markets headed higher irrenspective of opening  -  HDFC Securities

Our markets are headed higher, irrespective of how they behave in the opening session.

The reasons are simple:

1. Fed minutes of the last FOMC meeting indicate that the FOMC was pleasantly surprised with the strength of the U.S. economy.

2. Their worry about the Coronavirus impact on trade means that the Fed is likely to cut rates despite its resolve to hold rates, if the situation so warrants

3. China has already cut rates this morning.

4. China is taking all necessary steps to ensure that the bottlenecksin production are removed fast.

5. The number of new infections has fallen for the third day. The figures would haveenthused the markets more had they not tempered with methodology.

Technically, all important indices all have made an island reversal pattern on the daily charts. This gives us the confidence they should ultimately head higher, though the markets may open lower today.

China should be back in action in full flow within a fortnight, which should be good news for our raw material starved Pharma industry.

Plus the prolonged closure on account of the virus has meant that the world has seriously started looking at alternatives of China and India will benefit out of it.

Our markets are closed Friday, a section of the markets will feel jittery to carry forward positions over the long weekend, which makes our conviction even higher.

ABFRL, JK Cement, Shriram Transport, Symphony, Trent and Voltas are looking strong for the short term from our research coverage. Nippon Asset Management has zoomed to a new life highs. Other asset managers are also doing well. Insurance companies are getting their mojo back. Sugar has never been sweeter.

Govt mulls compulsory registration for paper imports

The government is considering making it mandatory for paper importers to register themselves before importing the commodity, a move aimed at keeping a tab on imports of the product, an official said. The consideration is on the lines of steel sector, where the government has made it mandatory for traders to register themselves with Steel Import Monitoring System to import 215 iron and steel products.

India imports different types of papers, including coated paper, paper boards, hand made papers, waste paper.

The paper industry has time and again expressed concerns about cheap imports and surge in inbound shipments.

This has a significant negative impact on coated paper manufacturing industry.

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HDFC Securities Limited (HSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000002475.