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Published on 31-12-2025 10:37 am

Nifty Bank : 59171

Technical Outlook

Day that was:

Bank Nifty ended the session on a positive note on back of mixed global cues settling at 59171, higher by 0.5%. In contrast, the Nifty PSU Bank index & Private Bank Index ended higher by 1.6 and 0.4% respectively.

Technical Outlook:

* From a technical standpoint, the daily price action on Bank Nifty formed is Bullish Engulfing candlestick, which is engulfing previous two days price action, reflecting positive momentum in short term.

* Over the past four weeks, the index has undergone a healthy retracement, and close above its 20-day EMA, and sustenance above earlier gap-up zone. This confluence reinforces the view that the broader uptrend remains intact.

* Index closed above previous session’s high of 59,140 levels , Going ahead follow through buying could trigger a fresh upswing towards 59,500. A decisive breakout above 59,500 would strengthen bullish momentum and open the door for a gradual retest of the all-time high near 60,100.

* Meanwhile, the Nifty PSU Bank index has witnessed faster retracement in Tuesday session as it has retraced last 4 sessions decline (8417-8255) in single day and closed above its 20-day EMA suggesting inherent strength in the index and buying demand at elevated support base .

* A decisive close above the two-month identical highs would confirm a resumption of the uptrend, paving the way for a move towards 8,650 in the coming weeks. Nifty Private Bank Index also relatively outperformed the benchmark gaining 0.4% and rebounded after taking support at 50-day EMA. Going ahead follow through strength above todays high would gradually lead index higher to challenge at 28900 levels

Intraday Rational:

Trend- Consolidation over past 4 weeks

Levels: Buy near 80% retracement level of its preceding up-move (59,065-60,674)

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Published on 31-12-2025 10:36 am

Nifty :25938

Technical Outlook

Day that was…

Equity benchmarks concluded the monthly expiry session on a flat note, with the Nifty settling at 25,938, amid subdued global cues. Market breadth remained negative, as reflected by an A/D ratio of 1:1.5, while broader markets underperformed, with the Nifty Midcap and Smallcap indices slipping 0.25% each. On the sectoral front, Metals, PSU Banks and Auto stocks outperformed, whereas IT, Realty and Oil & Gas emerged as the key laggards.

Technical Outlook:

* The index opened on a flat note and traded within 100 points range throughout the session. However, supportive efforts re-emerged near the rising trendline support in place since October 2025. Consequently, the daily price action formed a Doji candle with shadows on both sides, highlighting intraday indecision and a lack of directional conviction.

* Structurally, since past seven-weeks index has been consolidating within the broader range of 25700-26300, underscoring a phase of healthy consolidation following the recent upmove. To negate the ongoing downward move, a decisive close above the previous session’s high is required, which could set the stage for a gradual move towards the 26,300 mark in the coming week. Failure to do so may result in an extension of the corrective phase.

* Nevertheless, the downside appears cushioned, as the index has consistently defended its 50-day EMA over the past two months, which coincides with previous swing low near 25,700, reinforcing this zone as a key support base.

Our constructive bias is outlined on the basis of following observations:

1. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has decisively slipped below 98 after failing to sustain above 100, easing currency-led headwinds. This has fuelled a sharp up-move in base metals, with Copper scaling fresh (all-time highs on MCX), while Aluminum breaks out from a three-year base, signalling the start of a structural uptrend.

2. Historically, since 2017 there have been two such instances when VIX slipped below the 9 mark, and on both occasion the Nifty has formed cup & handle formation and witnessed a positive breakout. In the current scenario too India VIX has fell around 9, with a formation of cup & handle pattern in Nifty, mirroring a similar past rhythm.(as shown in graph)

3. On expected line, USD/INR has retreated from the upper band of rising wedge. Historically, there have been five instances where a retreat in USD/INR from the upper band of this wedge averaging a ~4% decline (with a maximum drawdown of ~7%) over a two-month period was followed by the Nifty delivering average gains of >10% over the subsequent two months.

Key Monitorable for the next week:

* US and India Tarde Deal

* FOMC minutes

Intraday Rational:

* Trend- consolidating within the 25,700-26,300 range for the past seven weeks, highlighting a phase of range-bound activity

* Levels: Buy near 80% retracement level of its preceding up-move (25975- 26440)

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Published on 31-12-2025 10:36 am

Copper is Heading Toward A Landmark Supply Crunch

* Market experts expect that the global copper market will post its largest shortfall in more than two decades in 2026, with a deficit of roughly 590,000 metric tons. By 2029, that gap is expected to balloon to nearly 1.1 million tons.

* This imbalance is unfolding as worldwide copper output is set to decline for the first time since 2020. Mining operations across the globe have been hit by significant disruptions, including technical and operational setbacks at several key production hubs, further tightening supply.

* Meanwhile, consumption is accelerating rapidly. Rising demand from artificial intelligence infrastructure and electric vehicle manufacturing is forecast to grow faster than the available supply.

* For years, copper producers have been unable to expand output quickly enough to match increasing usage. As a result, elevated copper prices appear poised to persist.

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Published on 31-12-2025 10:35 am

Market Outlook

The Nifty 50 index ended the session at 25,938, witnessing a range bound movement of nearly 100 points on the monthly expiry of the December series. On the technical perspective Index continued to remain in a consolidation phase. Derivatives data of next weekly expiry, shows fresh OI buildup at the 26,000 Call strike, indicating immediate resistance level, while Put OI buildup at 25,900 level, suggesting immediate support. A decisive breakout on either side of this range will be crucial to determining the next directional move for the index.

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Published on 31-12-2025 10:10 am

* The banking index regained positive momentum after four consecutive sessions of weakness.

* Despite opening on a subdued note, buying interest emerged early, leading to sustained strength through the session and a positive close.

* Barring Kotak Bank and IDFC First Bank, which saw mild profit booking, all major constituents traded firm, led by Canara Bank and Bank of Baroda.

* From a technical perspective, the index faces resistance near 59,800, while support is placed around 58,400.

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