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Published on 16-04-2024 11:04 am

Market Roundup

* The Indian rupee is expected to open lower following weaker Asian currencies and risk-off sentiments. The higher crude oil prices and foreign fund outflows could further weigh on the local rupee. On Monday, spot USDINR gained 4 paise to 83.45, another life high. The risk-averse sentiments and foreign fund outflows are pulling the greenback higher. In the near term, the pair has resistance at 83.50 and 83.70 while on the downside it may find support around 83. The bias remains favourable for the dollar amid haven demand and expectation of interest rates to remain higher for longer amid lingering worries over inflation.

* On the positive front, India’s trade deficit narrowed to an 11-month low in March as the nation reined in its import bill and a recovery in global demand helped keep exports steady. The gap between exports and imports stood at $15.6 billion in March.

* IMD forecast an above-normal monsoon this year, raising optimism that ample rains will spur crop output and economic growth and prompt the government to ease curbs on exports of wheat, rice and sugar. Precipitation during the June-September period is likely to be 106% of a long-term average of 87 centimeters, IMD said.

* India's wholesale price inflation quickened in March, led by an increase in vegetable prices. The wholesale price index (WPI) climbed 0.53% year-over-year in March, sharper than the 0.20% rise in February.

* The dollar rose to a five-month high amid higher Treasury yields after a strong retail sales report and haven-related demand on concerns Israel may retaliate against Iran.

* Asian stocks fell and the region’s currencies weakened against the dollar as China’s economic data further weighed on sentiment. China’s slew of economic data was mixed as growth beat expectations in the first quarter, bolstering expectations the government can hit its ambitious annual target. Gross domestic product increased 5.3% in the January-to-March period from a year earlier. The nation’s retail sales and industrial output numbers both fell short of estimates. Retail sales climbed 3.1%, missing an expected 4.8% gain. Industrial output rose 6.1% for the first quarter, compared to an estimate of 6.6% growth.

* Oil whipsawed on geopolitical angst. West Texas Intermediate crude reclaimed the $85 mark, after briefly falling below it, and gold climbed on fears of escalating tensions in the Middle East.

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Published on 16-04-2024 11:02 am

JPYINR

Observations

JPYINR trading range for the day is 53.97-54.85.

JPY dropped as strong US economic data dampened hopes for multiple interest rate cuts from Fed this year.

Japan's finance minister says he's watching FX moves closely

Japan's machinery orders rise sharply, may ease concerns about domestic demand

SELL JPYINR APR @ 54.3 SL 54.5 TGT 54.1-54.

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Published on 16-04-2024 11:01 am

GBPINR

Observation

GBPINR trading range for the day is 103.88-104.56.

GBP settled flat as geopolitical tensions improve the appeal for safe-haven assets.

UK’s employment and inflation data will influence speculation over BoE rate cuts.

The UK economy is on track to come out of a technical recession.

SELL GBPINR APR @ 104.3 SL 104.6 TGT 104-103.7.

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Published on 16-04-2024 11:00 am

USDINR

Observations

USDINR trading range for the day is 83.36-83.54.

Rupee remained in range as dollar sales by RBI helped curb the local unit's losses.

India's merchandise trade deficit in March stood at $15.6 billion

India's wholesale price index-based inflation accelerated to 0.53 per cent in March on an annual basis

BUY USDINR APR @ 83.4 SL 83.3 TGT 83.5-83.6.

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Published on 16-04-2024 10:58 am

Spot GBP/INR

* The pair opened weak but recovered during the day to end near its session highs; resistance to any attempted recovery lies near ~104.62

* 103.81 remains an important downside marker followed by 103.47, which is the midpoint of the range set by the October to December advance.

* Momentum on the four-hourly chart is oversold and recent price action suggests that the market is looking for a swing low to form, although a bullish trigger is still awaited.

* There is an 86% chance that the pair will trade between 103.56 and 104.80 in the next session.

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