Published on 3/04/2017 11:24:53 AM | Source: GEPL Capital Ltd

The NIFTY now trades above all the three averages - GEPL

Posted in Market Outlook | #GEPLCapital Ltd #Market Outlook


Observations:

1. As on 31.3.2017, the NIFTY closed the week, the month as well as the financial year at an all-time closing HIGH of 9173.75, thereby giving a rise of 0.72% over the earlier week.

2. The long term moving averages stand as below: 50 DMA @ 8863, 100 DMA @ 8518, 200 DMA @ 8549. The NIFTY now trades above all the three averages, and the 100 DMA is now very close to a positive crossover above the 200 DMA.

3. The FII trend is indicating lightening of positions to the tune of 22%, yet most to do with the EXPIRY. FIIs have maintained their LONGS (+1.71 L vs 2.19 L a week earlier) contracts; same as on RETAIL side, which seems to have lost weight by around 37% in shorts with (-1.22 L vs –1.95 L a week earlier) contracts.

4. The INDIA VIX, seems to have ticked back a bit, mostly attributed to the new expiry. The index moved up to 12.42 vs 11.98 a week earlier.

 

Inference & Expectations:

*  On the weekly chart, Index once again took support on 9000 bullish gap and after matching lows with previous week candle around 9020 level bounced back to mark highest weekly close. Breadth Index remained positive with 938 advances against 698 declines on NSE.

*  Friday’s session also ended the month on a HIGH, as a close confirming the bullish swing breakout with a possible target in five digits in the new financial year.

*  In the very short term, a peg back of the daily charts, we maintain our bias that Index is consolidating in range 9000 – 9250 with a positive bias and any dip towards 9000 a buying opportunity.

*  In the intermediate sense, the upside may have possible extensions to the 9300-9500 mark, while on the lower side 8950 would be a level of premier importance.

*  Levels to watch on the upside 9227/9263/9304 (Extrapolated).

*  Levels to watch on the downside 9140/9101/9071.

 

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