Published on 10/06/2019 9:59:01 AM | Source: Angel Broking Pvt Ltd

Fundamental Outlook 10 June 2019 - INR, EUR, GBP by Angel Broking Pvt Ltd

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Indian rupee

Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.4 percent last week while the Dollar Index decreased by 0.67 percent. RBI decided to cut repo rate by 25 bps to 5.75 percent and also cited that estimated future GDP growth rate will be lower than earlier estimated. GDP data from India for quarter ending March came in at 5.8 percent. Manufacturing PMI from US came in at 52.1 against market expectations of 53 for May’19. US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on Tuesday the central bank will "act as appropriate" in response to risks posed by a trade war, remarks that may open the door to the possibility of a rate cut. Meanwhile, latest development on trade war front came with both countries blaming one another from backing out of the trade talks initially opted for. The increases in tariffs have come into place since 1st June 2019. According to IMF US China trade war to cost $455 billion in lost output. In the coming week, USDINR will be driven by CPI data from both US and India.

USDINR is expected to move lower in today’s session.



EURUSD appreciated by 0.9 percent last week while EURINR depreciated by 0.31 percent the same time frame.

As largely anticipated, the central bank kept rates unchanged and pushed forward guidance into H1 2020, signalling no rate moves until next year. Mr. Draghi remarked in the press conference that the central bank stands ready to act if conditions deteriorate, a remake of the “whatever it takes,” amid the risk and the uncertainties related to global trade and economic growth. EURINR in the coming week will be driven by CPI data from Germany and France.

EURINR is expected to trade higher in today’s session.



GBP increased against USD by 0.49 percent last week while GBPINR remained flat during the same time frame.

The US President Donald Trump’s British visit turned out to be less dramatic with no major furious statements from any side and only the praise of the relationship between the two economies. Additionally, the British Trade Secretary Liam Fox said that the UK wants more access to the US if it is to make a deal post-Brexit which is quite possible.In the coming week, movement in GBPINR will be driven by further update on Brexit and GDP data from UK.

GBPINR is expected to move sideways in today’s session


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