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Published on 17/01/2020 10:42:58 AM | Source: Kedia Commodity Ltd

Natural gas trading range for the day is 148.4-156.2 - Kedia Commodity

Posted in Commodities Reports| #Kedia Commodity Ltd #Commodity Tips

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Gold

Gold on MCX settled up 0.19% at 39686 as investors hoped the Sino-U.S. trade deal could herald warmer relations between the world's two biggest economies and help to revive global growth.  The much-awaited Phase 1 trade deal was signed by U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He on Wednesday, defusing an 18-month-long row that has roiled global markets. The Fed expressed confidence that borrowing costs are at the right level to sustain growth and lift inflation to healthier levels. Holdings of the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund SPDR Gold Trust rose 0.43% to 878.32 tonnes. A report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed a modest acceleration in the pace of growth in regional manufacturing activity in the month of January. The report said its general business conditions index edged up to 4.8 in January from a revised 3.3 in December, with a positive reading indicating growth in regional manufacturing activity. The U.S. and China officially signed an historic phase one trade deal on Wednesday in an effort to defuse the bitter trade dispute between the two economic superpowers. President Donald Trump signed the agreement along with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, Beijing's chief trade negotiator, in a ceremony at the White House. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.19% to settled at 11535 while prices up 75 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 39591 and below same could see a test of 39496 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 39778, a move above could see prices testing 39870.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 39496-39870.
* Gold remained supported as investors hoped the Sino-U.S. trade deal could herald warmer relations and help to revive global growth.
* The Fed expressed confidence that borrowing costs are at the right level to sustain growth and lift inflation to healthier levels.
* A report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed a modest acceleration in the pace of growth in regional manufacturing activity in the month of January.

 

Silver

Silver prices settled flat after the U.S. and China signed a historic trade deal. Tensions remained however, as Washington decided to keep duties on some $360 billion of Chinese goods. The U.S. economy expanded at a modest pace through the final six weeks of 2019 but uncertainty over U.S. trade policy continued to hurt firms, a survey conducted by the Federal Reserve said. "In many districts, tariffs and trade uncertainty continued to weigh on some businesses," the Fed said in its report, compiled from anecdotal evidence derived from business contacts across the country. U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He signed an initial trade deal at the White House earlier on Wednesday after 18 months of tit-for-tat tariffs between the world's two largest economies that has uprooted supply chains and slowed global growth. U.S. producer prices edged up in December as a rise in the cost of goods was offset by weakness in services, the latest indication of tame inflation pressures that could allow the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged this year. The report from the Labor Department came in the wake of data on Tuesday showing a small rise in consumer prices in December. Inflation has remained tame even as the unemployment rate has dropped to near a 50-year low and the longest economic expansion on record entered its 11th year. The U.S. central bank last month left interest rates steady and signaled monetary policy could remain on hold at least through this year after it reduced borrowing costs three times in 2019. Technically now Silver is getting support at 46197 and below same could see a test of 45973 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 46612, a move above could see prices testing 46803.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 45973-46803.
* Silver prices settled flat after the U.S. and China signed a historic trade deal.
* Tensions remained however, as Washington decided to keep duties on some $360 billion of Chinese goods.
* The U.S. economy expanded at a modest pace through the final six weeks of 2019 but uncertainty over U.S. trade policy continued to hurt firms, a survey conducted by the Federal Reserve said

 

Crude oil 

Crude oil on MCX settled up 1.59% at 4165 buoyed by the long-anticipated signing of an initial Sino-U.S. trade deal that sets the stage for a jump in Chinese purchases of American energy products, while U.S. crude inventories fell more than expected. Under the so-called Phase 1 deal to call a truce in a trade war between the world's two biggest economies, China committed to buying over $50 billion more of U.S. oil, liquefied natural gas and other energy products over two years. Official U.S. data showing a much bigger than expected drop in crude oil inventories, which also helped to underpin prices. Oil inventories fell by 2.5 million barrels, compared with analyst expectations of a drop of 500,000 barrels, according to data from the Energy Information Administration.  Gasoline stocks rose by 6.7 million barrels and distillate stocks were up by 8.2 million barrels, according to the EIA. Distillate stockpiles , which include diesel and heating oil, rose by 8.2 million barrels in the week to 147.2 million barrels, versus expectations for a 1.2 million-barrel rise, the EIA data showed. U.S. crude production also rose to a record 13 million barrels per day, the agency said. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -30.55% to settled at 8278 while prices up 65 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 4105 and below same could see a test of 4046 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4199, a move above could see prices testing 4234.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 4046-4234.
* Crude oil gained buoyed by the long-anticipated signing of an initial Sino-U.S. trade deal that sets the stage for a jump in Chinese purchases of American energy products
* Official U.S. data showing a much bigger than expected drop in crude oil inventories, which also helped to underpin prices.
* Oil inventories fell by 2.5 million barrels, compared with analyst expectations of a drop of 500,000 barrels, according to data

 

Natural gas

Natural gas on MCX settled up 0.66% at 152.3 on short covering amid smaller than usual weekly storage draw and midday forecasts for less weather. Meteorologists projected weather in the U.S. Lower 48 states would turn colder than normal, but a little warmer than forecast earlier, from Jan. 19-22 and Jan. 28-31. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities pulled 109 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended Jan. 10. Data provider Refinitiv projected average demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would jump to 133.1 bcfd next week from 113.7 bcfd this week. U.S. natural gas production and demand will decline in 2021 after hitting record highs this year, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO). EIA projected dry gas production will fall to 94.11 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2021 from a record 94.74 bcfd in 2020. The current all-time high is 92.03 bcfd in 2019. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.5% to settled at 27441 while prices up 1 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 150.4 and below same could see a test of 148.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 154.3, a move above could see prices testing 156.2.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 148.4-156.2.
* Natural gas gained on short covering amid smaller than usual weekly storage draw and midday forecasts for less weather.
* The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities pulled 109 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended Jan. 10.
* U.S. natural gas production and demand will decline in 2021 after hitting record highs this year, EIA said.

 

Copper

Copper on MCX settled down -0.66% at 452.25 on investors' doubt that the recently signed U.S.-China trade agreement would improve metals demand. Washington and Beijing signed a Phase 1 trade deal that will roll back some tariffs and boost Chinese purchases of U.S. products, defusing an 18-month row that has hurt global economic growth and metals demand. But investors are worried that the pact would not substantially boost metals demand as the deal left a number of sore spots unresolved, while demand has not improved significantly to support prices. New home prices in China's 70 major cities rose 6.6% in December from a year earlier, the slowest since July 2018, and down from November's 7.1% on-year increase. Copper inventories in LME-approved warehouses fell to a 10-month low of 128,050 tonnes, latest data showed. However, the discount between LME cash and three-month contract expanded to a more than three-month high of $34.50 a tonne, suggesting no nearby supply shortage. The Labor Department said its producer price index for final demand inched up by 0.1% in December after coming in unchanged in November. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.42% to settled at 4205 while prices down -3 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 450.1 and below same could see a test of 447.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 455.6, a move above could see prices testing 458.9.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 447.9-458.9.
* Copper prices fell on investors' doubt that the recently signed U.S.-China trade agreement would improve metals demand.
* Copper inventories in LME-approved warehouses fell to a 10-month low of 128,050 tonnes, latest data showed.
* However, the discount between LME cash and three-month contract expanded to a more than three-month high of $34.50 a tonne.

 

Zinc 

Zinc on MCX settled up 0.61% at 182.85 as dollar dropped as the US and China signed a deal that will roll back some tariffs and boost Chinese purchases of US goods and services, defusing an 18-month conflict between the world’s two largest economies. But the deal will leave in place 25% tariffs on a vast, $250 billion array of Chinese industrial goods and components used by US manufacturers, which is also seen as “fragile”. China’s new home prices rose 0.3% in December month-on-month, unchanged from the pace in November, calculated from official National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data. On an annual basis, average new home prices in China’s 70 major cities rose 6.6% in December, down from 7.1% in November, and the slowest year-on-year pace since July 2018. China has clamped down on property speculation since 2016 to stop home prices from overheating. But with the pace of economic growth slowing, policymakers are careful not to overly stifle the property market - a pillar of the broader economy. In Europe, the UK, France and Germany have all formally accused Iran of violating its 2015 nuclear deal, a move which could pave the way for a re-imposition of UN sanctions lifted as part of the agreement. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.37% to settled at 14740 while prices up 1.1 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 181.6 and below same could see a test of 180.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 184, a move above could see prices testing 185.1.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 180.3-185.1.
* Zinc prices gains as dollar dropped as the US and China signed a deal that will roll back some tariffs and boost Chinese purchases of US goods and services
* Fed's Beige Book: US economy continued to expand modestly through December
* China’s new home prices rose 0.3% in December month-on-month, unchanged from the pace in November, Reuters calculated from official National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data.
 

 

Nickel

Nickel on MCX settled down -3.27% at 1015.2 on profit booking after prices gained after the United States and China signed a deal to defuse their 18-month trade war. Indonesia had exported 3.04 million tonnes of nickel ore worth $118.6 million in December, data from the statistics agency showed. The volume of ore exports climbed from 1.62 million tonnes in the year-ago period, and rose from 2.7 million tonnes in November. Indonesia stopped exports of nickel ore this month as it speeds up efforts to process more of its natural resources at home. Lacklustre US producer inflation data weighed on market sentiment on Wednesday. US producer prices edged up in December as a rise in the cost of goods was offset by weakness in services, the Labor Department said. US producer price index (PPI) for final demand ticked up 0.1% last month after being unchanged in November. On a year-over-year basis, the PPI increased 1.3% after gaining 1.1% in November. In Europe, the UK, France and Germany have all formally accused Iran of violating its 2015 nuclear deal, a move which could pave the way for a re-imposition of UN sanctions lifted as part of the agreement. German full-year GDP (gross domestic product) growth figures showed that Europe’s largest economy grew by 0.6% in 2019, its weakest expansion rate for six years, as export-dependent manufacturers face ongoing headwinds from trade disputes and weak overseas demand. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.03% to settled at 1494 while prices down -34.3 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 998.9 and below same could see a test of 982.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1043.9, a move above could see prices testing 1072.6.

Trading Ideas:
* Nickel trading range for the day is 982.6-1072.6.
* Nickel dropped on profit booking after prices gained after the United States and China signed a deal to defuse their 18-month trade war.  
* Indonesia had exported 3.04 million tonnes of nickel ore worth $118.6 million in December, data from the statistics agency showed.
* Indonesia stopped exports of nickel ore this month as it speeds up efforts to process more of its natural resources at home.

 

Aluminium

Aluminium on MCX settled up 0.54% at 140.45 as the US dollar weakened on the signing of the US-China phase one trade deal and weaker-than-expected US producer inflation data.  Aluminium inventories in China rose this week, lifted by greater arrivals and broadly weakening consumption. Data showed that social inventories of primary aluminium across eight consumption areas in China, including SHFE warrants, increased 20,000 mt in the week ended January 16 to 630,000 mt. The stocks barely changed in the previous week, after registering an increase of 18,000 mt in the week ended January 2 that snapped a months-long inventory downtrend. Headline aluminium inventories in warehouses tracked by the ShFE hit their lowest in nearly two years in late December at 185,127 tonnes, an 81% drop from a record high of 993,207 tonnes in 2018. Stocks had since picked up to 193,899 tonnes on Friday, latest exchange data showed. Data showed that stocks of 6063 aluminium billet across five major consumption areas in China rose for the second consecutive week, by 13,200 mt from Thursday January 9 to stand at 66,400 mt as of Thursday January 16. Stocks increased 3,300 mt in the previous week. The UK, France and Germany have all formally accused Iran of violating its 2015 nuclear deal, a move which could pave the way for a re-imposition of UN sanctions lifted as part of the agreement. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.15% to settled at 3920 while prices up 0.75 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 139.9 and below same could see a test of 139.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 140.9, a move above could see prices testing 141.3.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 139.3-141.3.
* Aluminium gained as the US dollar weakened on the signing of the US-China phase one trade deal and weaker-than-expected US producer inflation data.  
* Aluminium inventories in China rose this week, lifted by greater arrivals and broadly weakening consumption.
* Headline aluminium inventories in warehouses tracked by the ShFE  hit their lowest in nearly two years in late December at 185,127 tonnes.

 

Mentha oil 

Mentha oil on MCX settled down by -0.89% at 1262.8 as demand in the spot market is also low, due to low arrivals from the big centers of Uttar Pradesh. Last year, farmers sowed more due to good prices. Mentha oil production during the year 2019-20 may increase by 30-40%. Pressure also seen after the Bihar state government has completely banned all types of pan masala. Currently, this ban has been imposed for 12 months. Prices also seen pressure earlier amid expectations of higher acreage under mint due to lucrative prices throughout last year. Export demand of oil in global market is likely to be improved due to recovery in currency which is supportive for prices. Mentha sowing may witness a huge jump this year because of high returns farmers experienced the whole of last year. Production of mentha oil is expected to rise to 48,000-50,000 tn from 33,000-35,000 tn last year. There were estimations of a 20-25% rise in sowing in 2019 versus last year. Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1409.50 per 1kg. Spot prices was down by Rs.-15.10/-.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.53% to settled at 731 while prices down -11.4 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1256.6 and below same could see a test of 1250.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1271.3, a move above could see prices testing 1279.9.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1250.5-1279.9.
* Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1409.50 per 1kg. Spot prices was down by Rs.-15.10/-.
* Mentha oil dropped as demand in the spot market is also low, due to low arrivals from the big centers of Uttar Pradesh.
* Pressure also seen after the Bihar state government has completely banned all types of pan masala.
* Mentha sowing may witness a huge jump this year because of high returns farmers experienced the whole of last year.
 

 

Soyabean​​​​​​​

Soyabean on NCDEX settled up by 0.29% at 4212 due to paucity of quality produce. Prices fell as the US production increased and heavy rain in Latin America (Brazil and Argentina), which weighed down on prices. The USDA said, that soybean production reached 3.56 billion bushels in the past year, rising by 8 million bushels above average, while inventories remained unchanged at 475 million bushels. Quality damage and yield loss has been reported for the new season crop due to the unseasonal and extended rainfall. Apart from quality, output is also expected to remain lower than its preliminary estimates. As per the data released by the Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA) in Oct 2019, Soybean production in the country is estimated at 89.94 Lakh tonnes in 2019-20, down 18% from last year owing to yield loss in key growing regions following heavy rains. USDA has lowered its 2019-20 projection for global Soybean production to 3365.60 Lakh tonnes in its November estimates compared with 3389.70 Lakh tonnes. The Brazilian government is revising soyabean supply and demand estimates for the 2018/2019 harvest, an official at the food supply and statistics agency Conab said. The revision is taking place after Brazilian exports of the oilseeds hit a higher-than-expected volume of 77.9 million tonnes in 2019. In December, Conab had forecast 2018/19 soyabean exports of 70 million tonnes. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped  -16 Rupees to 4350 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.88% to settled at 192860, now Soyabean is getting support at 4166 and below same could see a test of 4121 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4248, a move above could see prices testing 4285.

Trading Ideas:
* Soyabean trading range for the day is 4121-4285.
* Soyabean  prices gained due to paucity of quality produce.
* USDA said soybean production reached 3.56 billion bushels in the past year, rising by 8 million bushels above average
* NCDEX accredited warehouses soyabean stocks gained by 56 tonnes to 39252 tonnes.
* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped  -16 Rupees to 4350 Rupees per 100 kgs.

 

Soyaoil ​​​​​​​

Ref.Soyaoil on NCDEX settled down by -2.07% at 889.2 on profit booking amid sufficient stocks in domestic market and weak demand in physical. The country’s oilmeal exports in December 2019 declined 79% to 67,562 tonne as compared to 324,927 tonne in the year-ago period, according to data released by the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA). The overall export of oilmeals during April-December 2019 stood at 1,802,434 tonne compared to 2,411,248 tonne in the year-ago period, a decline of 25%. This is mainly due to disparity in export of oilmeals, specifically soyabean meal because of the higher minimum support price (MSP) of beans which makes the domestic soyabean meal expensive in international market in comparison. The silver lining of the export is the sharp increase in the export of castor meal which jumped nearly 60% to 469,248 tonne from 292,511 tonne in the same period last year. According to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA), U.S. November soybean crush fell by 7.56 percent m-o-m to 164.909 million bushels from 178.397 million bushels in October 2019, below market expectation. Crush of soybean in Nov was lower by 1.23 percent y-o-y compared to Nov 2018 figure of 166.959 million bushels. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 910.85 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.27% to settled at 58525 while prices down -18.8 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 881 and below same could see a test of 874 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 902, a move above could see prices testing 916.

Trading Ideas:
* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 874-916.
* Ref soyoil ended with losses on profit booking amid sufficient stocks in domestic market and weak demand in physical.
* The country’s oilmeal exports in December 2019 declined 79% to 67,562 tonne as compared to 324,927 tonne in the year-ago period
* The overall export of oilmeals during April-December 2019 stood at 1,802,434 tonne compared to 2,411,248 tonne in the year-ago period
* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 910.85 Rupees per 10 kgs.
 

 

Crude palm Oil​​​​​​​

Crude palm Oil on MCX settled down by -1.97% at 798 as lower-than-expected exports dragged on prices, with traders worried India will place more curbs on shipments from Malaysia. Malaysia is talking to Indian government and trade officials in a bid to resolve concerns over New Delhi's new palm oil import restrictions. India, the world's biggest buyer of edible oils, last week placed curbs on imports of refined palm oil and has informally asked traders to stop importing all kinds of palm oil from Malaysia, the world's second biggest producer and exporter of the commodity after Indonesia. India was Malaysia's biggest buyer of palm oil in 2019, with 4.4 million tonnes of purchases. In 2020, purchases could fall below 1 million tonnes if relations don't improve. Malaysian palm oil exports for Jan. 1-15 rose between 3% and 5.8%, cargo surveyors Amspec Malaysia and Intertek Testing Services said. According to Malaysia Palm Oil Board (MPOB), Malaysia’s December palm oil stocks fell 10.99 percent to 20.07 lakh tons compared to 22.55 lakh tons in November 2019. Production of palm oil in Dec fell 13.27 percent to 13.34 lakh tons compared to 15.38 lakh tons in Nov 2019. Exports of palm oil in Dec fell 0.67 percent to 13.96 lakh tons compared to 14.06 lakh tons in Nov 2019. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.93% to settled at 3566 while prices down -16 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 786.3 and below same could see a test of 774.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 817.2, a move above could see prices testing 836.5.

Trading Ideas:
* CPO trading range for the day is 774.7-836.5.
* Crude palm oil dropped as lower-than-expected exports dragged on prices, with traders worried India will place more curbs on shipments from Malaysia.
* Malaysia is talking to Indian government and trade officials in a bid to resolve concerns over New Delhi's new palm oil import restrictions.
* Malaysian palm oil exports for Jan. 1-15 rose between 3% and 5.8%, cargo surveyors Amspec Malaysia and Intertek Testing Services said.
* Crude palm oil prices in the spot market dropped by 21.00 rupees and settled at 805.80 rupees.

 

Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed on NCDEX settled down by -1.5% at 4320 on hopes of higher acreage backed by favourable weather conditions.  Mustard seed sowing stood nearly 3 lakh hectare down, compared to last year in the corresponding period, at 50.71 lakh hectares, showed farm ministry data. NAFED had procured around 1.08 million tonnes mustard seed harvested in 2018-19 (Jul-Jun) under a price-support scheme. Out of total procurement, NAFED had procured 6.08 Lakh MT in Rajasthan, 2.51 lakh MT from Haryana ,1.82 lakh MT from Madhya Pradesh ,0.41 Lakh MT from Gujarat and 0.06 Lakh MT from UP. MOPA has estimated all India mustard output at 8.1 million MT in 2018-19 which is 6.89 per cent lower than the initial estimate of 8.7 million MT. However, government in his fourth advance estimate has reported 9.339 million MT for 2018-19 which is 6.13 per cent higher than the third advance estimate of 8.8 million MT. India’s mustard meal exports in the month of July 2019 were 93.837 thousand MT (provisional), higher against 71.064 thousand MT in May 2019. Total exports of rapeseed meal from April 2019 to July 2019 were 3.58 lakh MT which is 10.95 percent lower than 2018-19 exports of 4.02 lakh MT in the same time period. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -51.5 Rupees to end at 4437 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.82% to settled at 10330 while prices down -66 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 4273 and below same could see a test of 4226 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4385, a move above could see prices testing 4450.

Trading Ideas:
* Rmseed trading range for the day is 4226-4450.
* Mustard seed prices ended with losses on hopes of higher acreage backed by favourable weather conditions.  
* Mustard seed sowing stood nearly 3 lakh hectare down, compared to last year in the corresponding period, at 50.71 lakh hectares
* NCDEX accredited warehouses mustard seed stocks gained by 249 tonnes to 6901 tonnes.
* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -51.5 Rupees to end at 4437 Rupees per 100 kg.

 

Turmeric

Turmeric on NCDEX settled down by -0.56% at 6376 due to continuous supply in the spot market as a result of increased mandi arrivals and expectation of higher production in the crop year 2019-20 amid weak demand. Turmeric supply reported higher in the spot market, as stockists were releasing their stocks. Sufficient carryover stocks and sluggish demand from domestic and overseas buyers weighed on prices. Sluggish demand from domestic stockists and expectations of higher crop in the current 2019-20 season also pressurized prices. As per the market feedback, the quality of Turmeric that is coming in the market right now is poor and from the old stock which led to the slowdown in demand. Demand remains weak in domestic as well as overseas market. On export front, India exported 0.75 Lakh tonnes in 2019-20 (April- October) a decrease of 13% from the same period of last year. India exported around 0.10 Lakh tonnes of Turmeric in October 2019 which is 16% less than 0.12 Lakh tonnes shipped in October 2018. In 2019-20 marketing year (Feb-Jan), total arrivals reported are up by 30% to around 5.4 Lakh tonne from 4.1 Lakh tonne reported same period last year In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6179.75 Rupees gained 29.75 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.18% to settled at 5630 while prices down -36 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6300 and below same could see a test of 6226 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6458, a move above could see prices testing 6542.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6226-6542.
* Turmeric dropped due to continuous supply in the spot market as a result of increased mandi arrivals.
* Pressure also seen amid expectation of higher production in the crop year 2019-20 amid weak demand.
* The quality of Turmeric that is coming in the market right now is poor and from the old stock which led to the slowdown in demand.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6179.75 Rupees gained 29.75 Rupees.

 

Jeera​​​​​​​

Jeera on NCDEX settled down by -0.3% at 15105 as the market is awaiting the crop numbers in anticipation of higher production. The weather is very supportive for jeera crop. The yield is going to be much better this year.  Favourable climatic conditions and improved water availability following good monsoon rains have brightened crop prospects. Jeera growers in Rajasthan and Gujarat are expecting about 25-30 per cent higher yield over last year.  Farmers point to a crop size of about 5 lakh tonnes as against about 4.1 lakh tonnes in the previous year. The yield is going to be much better this year. Farmers pointed out a marginal impact on the crop due to last month’s locust attack in southern Rajasthan and north Gujarat, primarily the jeera and coriander growing regions. As per the latest data from the Gujarat government on rabi sowing, there is a 36 per cent jump in area under jeera cultivation over last year. Jeera acreage as on January 6, 2020 was reported at 4.71 lakh hectares (3.45 lakh ha). Poor export prospects and lower prices, coupled with delayed sowing, are hurting jeera growers this rabi season. Rabi sowing for jeera was undertaken on 1,31,561 hectares in Gujarat, nearly 70,000 hectares down from 1,99,455 hectares reported around the same time last year. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -122.3 Rupees to end at 15939.45 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically now Jeera is getting support at 15025 and below same could see a test of 14945 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 15210, a move above could see prices testing 15315.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 14945-15315.
* Jeera prices dropped as the market is awaiting the crop numbers in anticipation of higher production.
* Favourable climatic conditions and improved water availability following good monsoon rains have brightened crop prospects.
* Jeera growers in Rajasthan and Gujarat are expecting about 25-30 per cent higher yield over last year.  
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -122.3 Rupees to end at 15939.45 Rupees per 100 kg.
 

 

Cotton

Cotton on MCX settled down by -0.35% at 19680 as demand is not improving in physical market amidst ample supplies. Robust sowing, supported by increased water availability following extended rains, has brightened the castor crop prospects in the largest growing States, Gujarat and Rajasthan. According to farmers and trade sources, the current crop condition appears good and the output is likely to cross 18 lakh tonnes, a likely record in at least the past seven years. In 2011-12, castor crop output was recorded at 16.2 lakh tonnes. Castor crop looks good at present and we believe that the crop size will be much higher than last year's. Farmers are estimating the crop to be between 17-19 lakh tonnes. Thanks to increased acreage and likely favourable climate, the crop will give a record output this year. Gujarat is the largest producer of the oilseed, which is used by multiple industries. At 7,40,484 hectares, the State saw a nearly 39 per cent jump in castor sowing for kharif 2019, as against 5,33,789 hectares in the previous year. Rajasthan has also witnessed about 20 per cent rise in castor sowing at 1,54,200 hectares, as against 1,28,300 hectares in the previous year. The Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA) estimated castor output for the year 2018-19 at about 9.35 lakh tonnes. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.36% to settled at 4545 while prices down -70 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 19600 and below same could see a test of 19510 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 19790, a move above could see prices testing 19890.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 19510-19890.
* Cotton prices dropped as cotton exports fall to nearly half on higher domestic prices during October-December 2019.
* India's cotton exports for the first three months of the season have tumbled to nearly half or by down about 45 per cent to 10 lakh bales
* The CAI data revealed that cotton shipments arrived at Indian ports till December 31, 2019 stood at 6.5 lakh bales, which was 3.53 lakh bales for the same period
* Cotton prices in spot market dropped by 220.00 rupees and settled at 19350.00 rupees. 
 

 

Chana

Chana on NCDEX settled down by -1.31% at 4287  amid higher availability of stock, higher  area coverage and weak demand. Farmers have covered 102.39 lakh ha against 94.28 lakh habits is higher by 7.91 percent. Chana area in Maharashtra is 62% up to 19.66 lakh ha, it 42% up in Rajasthan to 21.38 lakh ha. However, it is down by 6.62 5 to 27.35 lakh ha. Current sowing pace hints area to exceed 110 lakh ha this year. From stock point of view Nafed still has 16.4 lakh MT chana. Out of this 10 lakh MT has been reserved for supply to the state govt. MP has 13 lakh MT chana while Raj has 2.4 lakh MT. Nafed may start selling chana in both states from mid Jan. Area is likely to exceed 110 lakh ha and weather remains favourable. Agriculture Ministry data showed that area under Chana or Gram jumped 5.71% to 98.52 lh. However, there is still time for the fresh crops to arrive in the spot markets. The new chana crop has started arriving in Kalaburagi, a key market in Karnataka. However, the new crop has few takers as higher moisture content restricted demand from dal millers and domestic stockists.  Crop arrivals of the pulse were pegged at 100-150 bags (1 bag = 100 kg), compared with 50-60 bags from the same period a year ago , adding that arrivals will gain pace from last week of January. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.81% to settled at 21740 while prices down -57 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 4265 and below same could see a test of 4244 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4325, a move above could see prices testing 4364.

Trading Ideas:
* Chana trading range for the day is 4244-4364.
* Chana prices ended with losses amid higher availability of stock, higher  area coverage and weak demand.
* Farmers have covered 102.39 lakh ha against 94.28 lakh habits is higher by 7.91 percent.
* Chana area in Maharashtra is 62% up to 19.66 lakh ha, it 42% up in Rajasthan to 21.38 lakh ha.
* In Delhi spot market, chana gained  by 27.5 Rupees to end at 4377.5 Rupees per 100 kgs.

 

-www.kediaadvisory.com
 

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