Published on 20/03/2017 10:43:42 AM | Source: Kedia Commodity Ltd

Gold trading range for the day is 28336-28616. - Kedia Commodity

Posted in | #Kedia Commodity Ltd #Commodity Tips


Gold

Gold on MCX settled up 0.34% at 28509 as the U.S. Federal Reserve's cautious message on interest rates left the dollar around five-week lows, making bullion cheaper those holding other currencies. The Fed raised U.S. rates, as expected, but its earlier forecast of three rate increases this year remained unchanged, disappointing some investors who had hoped for hints of a possible fourth hike in 2017. Rate rises lead to higher bond yields, which increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion and tend to boost the dollar, in which gold is priced.

Investors were also looking ahead to the Group of 20 (G20) finance leaders' meeting in Germany this weekend, where any attempt by the Trump administration to pursue protectionist policies could fuel demand for gold as a safe-haven. Gold premiums rose in China this week as traders said supply of the precious metal was limited due to tightening import restrictions to stem currency outflows. Premiums climbed to over $20 an ounce against the international benchmark from $15-$17 last week.

China gold premiums surged to their highest in nearly three years late last year as traders saw Beijing's efforts to restrict import licences impacting supply. China permits only 13 banks, including three foreign lenders, to import gold, Shanghai Gold Exchange said. China's monthly net gold imports via main conduit Hong Kong plunged 38.3 percent in January. Dealers in India were charging a premium of up to $1.50 an ounce this week over official domestic prices. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.03% to settled at 4694, now Gold is getting support at 28422 and below same could see a test of 28336 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 28562, a move above could see prices testing 28616.

 

Trading Ideas:

*  Gold trading range for the day is 28336-28616.

*  Gold gained as the dollar plumbed to fresh five-week lows after the U.S. central bank's signal of a slower pace of rate increases this year disappointed dollar bulls.

*  The U.S. Federal Reserve delivered an interest rate increase as widely anticipated, but did not alter its earlier forecast for a total of three rate increases this year.

*  Rutte's victory was hailed across Europe by governments facing a rising wave of nationalism, denting gold's safe-haven appeal. 

 

Silver

Silver on MCX settled up 0.77% at 40909 as weakness in the U.S. dollar, following Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision, provided a runway for gains. The Fed on Wednesday lifted benchmark interest rates by a quarter-point as widely expected. The central bank’s statement and forecasts for future rate increases was seen as less aggressive than had been anticipated. Still, some market strategists see near-term headwinds for precious metals, especially since the bullish sentiment spurred by Trump’s proposals to juice the U.S. economy through fiscal-stimulus measures haven’t entirely vanished.

Although there are lingering concerns about Trump’s ability to implement his pro-business agenda, their enactment could cause the Fed to quicken its pace of rate increases. Meanwhile, mostly upbeat U.S. economic data heaped pressure on prices as manufacturing output and consumer sentiment data topped expectations while industrial production slowed in February. In a preliminary report, the University of Michigan said its consumer sentiment index rose to 97.6 in March from 95.7 the previous month while manufacturing output rose for a sixth straight month. Both consumer sentiment and manufacturing output topped expectations while U.S. industrial production was flat in February, compared to expectations for a 0.2% rise.

First-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits saw a modest decrease in the week ended March 11th, according to a report released by the Labor Department. The report said initial jobless claims edged down to 241,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 243,000. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.39% to settled at 13655 while prices up 311 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 40739 and below same could see a test of 40570 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 41013, a move above could see prices testing 41118.

 

Trading Ideas:

*  Silver trading range for the day is 40570-41118.

*  Silver prices gained as weakness in the U.S. dollar, following Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision, provided a runway for gains.

*  The Fed lifted benchmark interest rates by a quarter-point as widely expected.

*  Meanwhile, mostly upbeat U.S. economic data heaped pressure on prices as manufacturing output and consumer sentiment data topped expectations. 

 

Crude oil

Crude oil prices settled flat but speculators sharply cut long positions during last week's rout, on concerns that an OPEC production cut was failing to reduce a global supply overhang. The market failed to rebound after Saudi Arabia Minister Khalid al-Falih said the cuts by the OPEC and non-OPEC producers could be extended beyond June if oil stockpiles stayed above long-term averages. Saudi Arabia has cut output by more than its share under the November 2016 deal.

Investors weighed the impact of the first oil cut from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in eight years against rising U.S. shale oil output and high inventories. However, oil has not been able to reclaim the range that prevailed through most of 2017 before last week's rout. Instead of rebounding to $53 a barrel, U.S. crude has remained stuck around $49. The potential for increased U.S. production continues to build, as Baker Hughes weekly rig count data showed an increase of 14 drilling rigs in the United States. Futures positioning showed that last week's rout pushed many speculators to bail out of long positions.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission said that net long positions in the crude futures market fell by more than 86,000 contracts, the biggest one-week reduction on record. The data is current through Tuesday, and captures the entirety of last week's selloff. OPEC and non-OPEC members agreed last year to cut output by a combined 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first half of 2017. Technically now Crudeoil is getting support at 3179 and below same could see a test of 3162 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 3216, a move above could see prices testing 3236.

 

Trading Ideas:

*  Crudeoil trading range for the day is 3162-3236.

*  Crude oil prices settled flat but speculators sharply cut long positions during last week's rout.

*  The market failed to rebound after Saudi Arabia Minister Khalid al-Falih said the cuts by the OPEC and non-OPEC producers could be extended beyond June.

*  The potential for increased U.S. production continues to build, as weekly rig count data showed an increase of 14 drilling rigs in US. 

 

Naturalgas

Naturalgas on MCX settled up 0.68% at 193.3 as lingering cold weather continued to raise the prospect of greater demand. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that natural gas storage in the U.S. declined by 53 billion cubic feet in the week ended March 10, missing market expectations for a drop of 56 billion cubic feet. That compared with a withdrawal of 68 billion cubic feet in the preceding week, 1 billion a year earlier and a five-year average drop of 85 billion cubic feet. Total natural gas in storage currently stands at 2.242 trillion cubic feet, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, 9.5% lower than levels at this time a year ago but 17.6% above the five-year average for this time of year.

Prices of the heating fuel are down around 22% so far this year as forecasts for warm winter weather weighed on heating demand expectations. Based on data from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, this year’s extremely warm winter has pushed heating demand for natural gas to nearly 20% below average. Without significant demand for natural gas, inventories could stay near record levels and may even continue to pull prices even lower. Reports of robust additions to the oil and gas rig count were not enough to deter futures bulls.

According to data from Baker Hughes Inc. Oklahoma added 10 rigs to its weekly tally, while Texas only added four, Meanwhile, Canadian rigs are getting out of the patch before the roads turn to mud in the annual exodus known as spring breakup. Technically now Naturalgas is getting support at 190.2 and below same could see a test of 187.2 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 195, a move above could see prices testing 196.8.

 

Trading Ideas:

*  Naturalgas trading range for the day is 187.2-196.8.

*  Natural gas prices gained as lingering cold weather continued to raise the prospect of greater demand.

*  The U.S. EIA said in its weekly report that natural gas storage in the U.S. declined by 53 billion cubic feet in the week ended March 10.

*  Total natural gas in storage currently stands at 2.242 trillion cubic feet, according to the U.S. 

 

Copper

Copper on MCX settled up 0.77% at 390.75 and posted its biggest weekly gain since mid-February in response to a weak U.S. dollar and ongoing mine supply concerns. The dollar index is down around 1 percent in the week after the U.S. Federal Reserve signalled a slower pace of monetary tightening than expected. A weaker dollar boosts the buying power of non-U.S. investors. Striking workers at Chile's Escondida, the world's biggest copper mine, are blocking attempts by owner BHP Billiton to renew operations at a major port nearby as the stoppage enters its sixth week.

Fixed-asset investment in China, which consumes nearly half the world's copper, grew 8.9 percent in January and February from a year ago, largely due to strong property and infrastructure construction. In the U.S., factory output increased for a sixth straight month in February, as rising commodity prices boost demand for machinery and other equipment. China’s copper output rose 6.7 percent to 1.37 million tonnes for January-February. Goldman Sachs said fees to copper smelters in China were falling close to break-even costs of $50-$60 a tonne.

The LME stock inflow remains quite elevated. Over the four days since stock inflow totalled 141,625 tonnes, stocks have climbed a further 20,150 tonnes. As the second quarter nears, we are waiting to see if exchange stocks start to fall. Cancelled warrants on the LME stand at 159,200 tonnes, up from a low of 84,850 tonnes on February 23, so it does look as though the market could see a pick-up in outflow. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -13.53% to settled at 13589, now Copper is getting support at 387.4 and below same could see a test of 384.1 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 392.5, a move above could see prices testing 394.3.

 

Trading Ideas:

*  Copper trading range for the day is 384.1-394.3.

*  Copper rose and posted its biggest weekly gain since mid-February in response to a weak U.S. dollar and ongoing mine supply concerns.

*  Striking workers at BHP Billiton's Escondida copper mine in Chile, are blocking attempts by the company to renew operations at a key port nearby.

*  Goldman Sachs said fees to copper smelters in China were falling close to break-even costs of $50-$60 a tonne, at $60-$70 a tonne for now. 

 

Zinc

Zinc on MCX settled up 2.2% at 188.4 on expectations the closure and suspensions of big mines will create shortages. Net spec positioning in LME zinc deteriorated for a third week in a row over February 24-March 3, according to the latest LME COTR. This was mainly driven by a build-up of shorts and was reinforced by long liquidation. In the physical market, premiums continued to strengthen last week in the USA due to the strike at Noranda Income Fund’s zinc processing facility in Canada, which is tightening available supply.

In Asia, premiums were stable amid little buying interest but may weaken in the near term if availability eases in the USA, as evidenced by the pick-up in cancelled warrants in New Orleans. In Europe, premiums were steady amid ample availability. While refined zinc production was little changed (+0.1%) in 2016, refined demand rose 3.6%, thanks primarily to China (accounting for 48% of total demand). Demand there rose 8.6%; as well, in India (accounting for 5% of world demand), demand surged by 14%. Combined zinc inventories in Shanghai, Tianjin and Guangdong decreased 9,600 to 277,100 tonnes this past week.

Shanghai and Guangdong witnessed further declines. Stocks in Tianjin grew. TCs of domestic zinc concentrate (50%) were traded at 3,600-4,000 yuan per tonne (zinc content) this past week. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7.24% to settled at 6397 while prices up 4.05 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 185.5 and below same could see a test of 182.5 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 190, a move above could see prices testing 191.5.

 

Trading Ideas:

*  Zinc trading range for the day is 182.5-191.5.

*  Zinc gained on expectations the closure and suspensions of big mines will create shortages.

*  The ILZSG estimates that the refined zinc market was in a deficit of 286,000 tonnes in the whole of 2016 compared with a surplus of 189,000 tonnes in 2015.

*  Combined zinc inventories in Shanghai, Tianjin and Guangdong decreased 9,600 to 277,100 tonnes this past week. 

 

Nickel

Nickel on MCX settled up 0.78% at 671.9 as support seen as the Philippines has repeatedly indicated that it will slash output. A Philippine nickel ore producer plans to reopen two mines suspended for environmental violations while it awaits the outcome of an appeal, in a test of rules around the government's crackdown on the industry. The two mines were among 10 suspended last year during a months-long audit led by Environment Secretary Regina Lopez, who later ordered the closure of more than half of operating mines in the world's top nickel ore exporter.

The move angered the industry, which said the closure orders were baseless and urged lawmakers this month to reject the ministerial appointment of Lopez, a committed environmentalist, in favor of a more moderate replacement. Lopez has said affected companies can appeal their case with the environment agency or with President Rodrigo Duterte and operate while awaiting a decision. It's not clear if this applies to mines halted last year. Now traders are eyeing for fresh update from Indonesia which is expected to gradually set export quota and export timetable to further detail its new export ore policy.

Market expectations over ore supply shortages will change in March with progress of new export policy in Indonesia and end of monsoon season in the Philippines. Those suppliers have begun contacting with domestic ore traders from late February-early March. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.88% to settled at 23402 while prices up 5.2 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 666.7 and below same could see a test of 661.6 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 675.3, a move above could see prices testing 678.8.

 

Trading Ideas:

*  Nickel trading range for the day is 661.6-678.8.

*  Nickel prices gained as support seen as the Philippines has repeatedly indicated that it will slash output.

*  A Philippine nickel ore producer plans to reopen two mines suspended for environmental violations while it awaits the outcome of an appeal.

*  Lopez has said affected companies can appeal their case with the environment agency or with President Rodrigo Duterte and operate while awaiting a decision. 

 

Aluminium

Aluminium prices gained support seen after Russian aluminium giant Rusal forecast demand growing by 5 percent this year. Support also seen after Russian aluminium giant Rusal forecast a global market deficit widening to 1.1 million tonnes. With aluminum premiums on the rise in the U.S. and Europe, and Japanese inventories falling amid growing demand, producers are upping the ante by charging the Pacific Rim a higher premium for the second quarter in a row.

According to a recent report from Reuters, three global aluminum producers offered buyers in Japan a premium of $135 per metric ton for shipments of the metal in Q2. China's plans to constrict production next winter and help improve air quality tightening supply by around 1.2 million tonnes, while an anti-dumping case in the United States is likely to curb exports of semi-manufactured shapes of metal. Also Rusal said it expects the aluminium market to remain in "good shape" in 2017, with demand growing by 5 percent and a global market deficit widening to 1.1 million tonnes.

Also Global aluminium supply will increase by 4.3 percent to 61.6 million tonnes, tempered by slower output growth in China, which is still seen up by 6 percent to 34.3 million tonnes. Yesterday prices also support from a declining US dollar as traders shrugged off the Federal Reserve’s decision to hike rates and instead focused on the fact that the Fed is unlikely to accelerate its pace of future rate hikes. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.83% to settled at 1817 while prices up 1.05 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 123.8 and below same could see a test of 122.7 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 125.5, a move above could see prices testing 126.1.

 

Trading Ideas:

*  Aluminium trading range for the day is 122.7-126.1.

*  Aluminium prices gained support seen after Russian aluminium giant Rusal forecast demand growing by 5 percent this year.

*  With aluminum premiums on the rise in the U.S. and Europe, and Japanese inventories falling amid growing demand.

*  Norsk Hydro CEO repeats 3-5 pct growth in aluminium demand in 2017.

 

Menthaoil

Menthaoil on MCX settled down -0.62% at 998.1 on fresh selling after the speculation that sowing activity had been inceresed in key production area. Mentha oil prices also dropped on account of muted demand from major consuming industries in the domestic spot market. Further, ample stocks position on higher supplies from major producing belts of Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh, too influenced mentha oil prices.

The weather looked good and everything seemed fine as of now as farmers are still under stress, as they have already suffered a lot because of demonetization. As cash is the primary mode of transaction in agriculture sector which contributes 15% to India’s total output. Earlier it was estimated that total area under Mentha planting will drop by 20% to 1.75 lakh ha for this season resulting into a proportionate fall in Mentha oil production this year. At Chandausi market total arrivals are at 20 Drums(1-drum-180kg), up by 15 Drums(1-drum-180kg) as compared to previous day. Mentha DMO is offered strong at Rs. 835 per Kg, higher by 1.21 per cent against previous trading day.

Mentha Flakes at Chandausi market is quoted firm at Rs. 1175 per Kg, higher by 0.86 per cent as against previous day. At Sambhal market total arrivals are at 80 Drums(1-drum=180kg), up by 10 Drums(1-drum=180kg) as compared to previous day. At Rampur market sources reported arrivals at 5 Drums(1-drum=180kg), down by 1 Drums(1-drum=180kg) as against previous day. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.07% to settled at 3128 while prices down -6.2 rupees, now Menthaoil is getting support at 992.8 and below same could see a test of 987.5 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 1006.1, a move above could see prices testing 1014.1.

 

Trading Ideas:

*  Menthaoil trading range for the day is 987.5-1014.1.

*  Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1147.00 per 1kg. Spot prices was down by Rs.-3.30/-.

*  Mentha oil dropped on fresh selling after the speculation that sowing activity had been inceresed in key production area.

*  Mentha oil prices also dropped on account of muted demand from major consuming industries in the domestic spot market.

*  At Chandausi market total arrivals are at 20 Drums(1-drum-180kg), up by 15 Drums(1-drum-180kg) as compared to previous day. 

 

Soyabean

Soyabean prices settled flat as supplies have been steady due to lower prevailing prices and good demand. Soybean exports during Oct-Feb were estimated at 112,000 tonnes, compared with 80,186 tonnes in the year-ago period, as per SOPA press release. Soybean crushing has also dropped to 750,000 tons in February as compared to 900,000 tons in the same period a month ago. Arrivals during February fell to 650,000 tons as compared to 900,000 tons in January. China’s February soybean imports surged by 23% year-on-year to 5.54 million tonnes it is the highest volume since the year 2010, according to the figures released by the General Administration of Customs of China.

However, the imports are 28% lower from 7.66 million tonnes in January this year. China’s cumulative soybean imports for January and February 2017 stood at 13.19 million tonnes, up 30% (10.17 million tonnes) from the corresponding period last year. Higher global soybean supply outlook with a record crop expected in Brazil and reports of higher U.S. soybean acreage may keep prices under pressure. According to a survey of growers .U.S. farmers will expand their plantings of soybeans by 6.5 % to 88.8 million hectares in 2017 while scaling back on corn and wheat.

US soybean crushers crushed higher than the market expectations in January, third highest January crush on record, said National Oilseed Processors Association. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.9% to settled at 193110, now Soyabean is getting support at 2877 and below same could see a test of 2866 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 2903, a move above could see prices testing 2918.

 

Trading Ideas:

*  Soyabean trading range for the day is 2866-2918.

*  Soyabean prices settled flat as supplies have been steady due to lower prevailing prices and good demand.

*  Soybean exports during Oct-Feb were estimated at 112,000 tonnes, compared with 80,186 tonnes in the year-ago period, as per SOPA report.

*  NCDEX accredited warehouses soyabean stocks dropped by 2679 tonnes to 206691 tonnes. # At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean remains unchanged at 0 Rupees to 3012 Rupees per 100 kgs. -www.kediaadvisory.com

 

Ref.Soya oil

Ref.Soya oil on NCDEX settled up 1.41% at 645.25 tracking firmness in spot demand despite of higher supply in domestic market. Prices also seen supported on higher demand from crushers, who are not able to procure soybean in bulk quantities at lower level as farmers are reluctant to sell at that level. Demand of soymeal by poultry feed manufacturers have also revived due to increased sales of broiler chicken in retail market. Soybean output in India as well as well as in the United States and Brazil is expected to rise this year. According to data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA), India's edible oil imports rose 15.8% on year to 1.23 mt in February.

The government has cut the base import price of soyoil by $9 per tonnes for second half of March. The base import price of crude soyoil is now at $805 from $879 during Feb first half. India imported 17 per cent more vegetable oil in February 2017 at 1,270,443 tonnes, compared to 1,082,009 tonnes in the corresponding month last year.

However, so far in the current oil year (November to October), vegetable oil imports have declined by a modest 8 per cent to 4,680,451 tonnes (November 2016-February 2017 period) as against 5,098,400 tonnes in the corresponding period last year. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.94% to settled at 53100 while prices up 9 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 639 and below same could see a test of 633 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 649, a move above could see prices testing 653.

 

Trading Ideas:

*  Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 633-653.

*  Ref soyoil prices ended with gains tracking firmness in spot demand despite of higher supply in domestic market.

*  According to data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA), India's edible oil imports rose 15.8% on year to 1.23 mt in February.

*  India imported 17 per cent more vegetable oil in February 2017 at 1,270,443 tonnes.

*  At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 657.9 Rupees per 10 kgs. 

 

CPO

CPO on MCX settled up 0.34% at 532.7 supported by supply shortage worries from Malaysia. Palm oil output in Malaysia dropped by 1.43% to 1.25 million tons as compared to 1.27 million tons in January, data published by Malaysian Palm Oil Board showed. Closing stockpiles for month of February also dropped 5.32% to 1.45 million tons as compared to 1.54 million in January. Malaysia palm oil exports during Mar 1-15 fell by around 6% compared to a month earlier on subdued demand from China, India & Subcontinent and Middle East, data showed.

Malaysia palm oil exports fell to 492,321 tons during Mar 1-15 compared to 520,962 tons for the same period a month ago, DowJones reported citing data from Intertek, a private surveyor. Malaysia's palm oil exports India during Mar 1-15 climbed by 17.60% to 76,100 tons as compared to 92,360 tons imported during Feb 1-15. Malaysia is still negotiating with Indonesia on standardising the export duty structure for crude palm oil (CPO). Malaysia hopes to work together with Indonesia on standardising the price structure, Minister of Plantation Industries and Commodities Datuk Seri Mah Siew Keong told.

He said Malaysia hoped to discuss the possibility of having a common tax structure with Indonesia so as not to be in conflict with the world’s palm oil trade,” he said. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.26% to settled at 3371 while prices up 1.8 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 529 and below same could see a test of 525.2 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 535, a move above could see prices testing 537.2.

 

Trading Ideas:

*  CPO trading range for the day is 525.2-537.2.

*  Crude palm oil prices gained supported by supply shortage worries from Malaysia.

*  Palm oil output in Malaysia dropped by 1.43% to 1.25 million tons as compared to 1.27 million tons in January.

*  Closing stockpiles for month of February also dropped 5.32% to 1.45 million tons as compared to 1.54 million in January.

Crude palm oil prices in spot market dropped by 0.90 rupees and settled at 542.40 rupees.

 

Rmseed

Rmseed on NCDEX settled up 1.09% at 3883 on higher demand from crushers in local mandis. However, sharp rally in the prices was capped by oversupply woes as mustard seed harvest has once again started as farmers has stopped it for last few days due to Holi festival affected supply in the spot markets, but now it is expected to gather momentum from next few days. Demand from crushers has improved on account of improving sales of mustard oil. Oil content in new mustard crop is good which is also attracting crushers to procure the commodity for their near term requirement. Demand for mustard oil has improved as traders anticipate that mustard oil is trading at attractive level.

As per traders as of now around 35-40% of the mustard crop has been harvested. On the other hand demand from crushers is as per requirement due to steady sales of mustard oil. Both crushers and stockiest are in wait and watch situation as how much the prices are likely to decline when arrivals hit mandies in full swing. India is expected to produce around 6.5-7 million tonnes (mt) of rape mustard seeds in 2016-17 as compared to 5.8 mt produced in 2015-16 due to higher acreage and improving productivity. The Ministry of Agriculture expects 8.5 mt of mustard seeds to be produced in the current rabi season against 6.8 mt a year ago, as per its 4th advanced estimates.

Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.58% to settled at 33600 while prices up 42 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 3846 and below same could see a test of 3810 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 3903, a move above could see prices testing 3924.

 

Trading Ideas:

*  Rmseed trading range for the day is 3810-3924.

*  Mustard seed prices ended with gains on higher demand from crushers in local mandis.

*  Demand from crushers has improved on account of improving sales of mustard oil.

*  India is expected to produce around 6.5-7 million tonnes (mt) of rape mustard seeds in 2016-17.

*  In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices remains unchanged at0 Rupees to end at 3767.5 Rupees per 100 kg. 

 

Turmeric

Turmeric on NCDEX settled down -1.9% at 6408 due to higher arrivals and lower demand. The demand for the new season turmeric in recent weeks is lower. In coming days, arrivals are expected to increase which could put pressure over prices. Prices may decline due to pressure of arrivals but improved domestic and export demand for the new turmeric may support prices. New crop arrivals have started in all the major producing centres of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Maharashtra, Odisha. Production in the ongoing season is expected to increase mainly on higher sowing area and favourable weather conditions in Maharashtra, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh etc. The turmeric arrivals in the country are higher at 81,876 tonnes during Mar 1-15 compared to 12,825 tonnes during previous month, as per the Agmarknet data.

On the export front, country exported about 82,115 tonnes during April-Dec period, up by 28% compared to last year exports of 64,105 tonnes, as per government data. Only thirty percent of the arrived turmeric was sold. At the Erode Turmeric Merchants Association Sales yard finger turmericsold at Rs. 5,509 to 9,101 a quintal. The Root variety sold at Rs. 5,289 to 7,111 a quintal.At the Regulated Marketing Committee finger turmeric sold at Rs. 6,690 to 7,839 a quintal.

The root variety sold at Rs. 6,069 to 6,779 a quintal. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.27% to settled at 11550 while prices down -124 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6331 and below same could see a test of 6253 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 6531, a move above could see prices testing 6653.

 

Trading Ideas:

*  Turmeric trading range for the day is 6254-6654.

*  Turmeric prices ended with losses due to higher arrivals and lower demand.

*  New crop arrivals have started in all the major producing centres of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Maharashtra, Odisha.

*  NCDEX accredited warehouses turmeric stocks gained by 79 tonnes to 617 tonnes.

*  In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6381.25 Rupees dropped -72.1 Rupees. 

 

Jeera

Jeera on NCDEX settled down -0.56% at 16865 on late profit booking after prices seen supported earlier as market participants are expecting good exports demand in coming weeks. The arrivals have been good in the physical market. Lower carryover stock coupled with higher export demand may push up jeera prices, as traders fear tight supply conditions in the coming months. The carryover stock has dipped to about 2 lakh bags (each of 55 kg) as against the normal 20-25 lakh bags, thereby reducing the availability even as the demand for exports and domestic consumption remains firm, trader sources said.

Turkey and Syria, India’s key competitors in the international market, are less likely to add supplies as the production in these countries is believed to hover at around 12,000 tonnes and 20,000 tonnes, respectively. As per data, during Mar 1-15 about 21,513 tonnes of jeera arrived compared to 6,120 tonnes during last month same period. On the export front, Jeera exports from country increase by 26.9% to 1.33 lt for the calendar year 2016 while the exports increase by 36.7% to 93,724 tonnes in first 9 month of marketing year 2016/17 as per the data release by Dept of commerce, GOI.

As per second advance estimates for 2016/17, production of Jeera in Gujarat will be 2.21 lt, down almost 11% compared to last year production of 2.38 lt. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.01% to settled at 8100 while prices down -95 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 16747 and below same could see a test of 16628 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 16962, a move above could see prices testing 17058.

 

Trading Ideas:

*  Jeera trading range for the day is 16630-17060.

*  Jeera dropped on late profit booking after prices seen supported earlier as market participants are expecting good exports demand.

*  As per data, during Mar 1-15 about 21,513 tonnes of jeera arrived compared to 6,120 tonnes during last month same period.

*  NCDEX accredited warehouses jeera stocks gained by 273 tonnes to 339 tonnes.

*  In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -78.35 Rupees to end at 17115.4 Rupees per 100 kg.

 

Maize

Maize on NCDEX settled down -1.04% at 1431 owing to slackened demand from consuming industries. Argentine corn should benefit this season from high yields brought by good weather, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said, adding that it may increase its harvest estimate above the current 54.8 million tonnes. The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported weekly export sales of old-crop U.S. corn at 1.255 million tonnes, above a range of trade expectations and the most in seven weeks. The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported export inspections of U.S. corn in the latest week at 1,547,022 tonnes, at the high end of a range of trade expectations.

Private analytics firm Informa Economics raised its projection of U.S. 2017 corn plantings to 90.8 million acres, from its January forecast of 90.5 million, trade sources said. Good rains and prospects for a bumper crop have pulled South African maize prices to 2-1/2 year lows. Corn prices dropped after the government Crop Estimates Committee forecast a 2017 harvest of 13.918 million tonnes, 79 percent more than in 2016. That forecast was 6 percent higher than expectations of 13.11 million tonnes. Cold weather, rains and resilient genetically-modified crops (GMO) have also limited the damage caused by an armyworm outbreak.

The region offers potential export markets. Neighbouring Zimbabwe has been hit by the fall armyworm, an invasive South American species, denting crop output. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.12% to settled at 1810 while prices down -15 rupees, now Maize is getting support at 1425 and below same could see a test of 1420 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 1438, a move above could see prices testing 1446.

 

Trading Ideas:

*  Maize trading range for the day is 1420-1446.

*  Maize prices ended with losses owing to slackened demand from consuming industries.

*  Argentine corn should benefit this season from high yields brought by good weather, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said.

*  NCDEX accredited warehouses maize stocks dropped by 265 tonnes to 2404 tonnes.

*  In Nizamabad maize spot prices gained 6.65 Rupees to 1450 Rupees per 100kgs. 

 

Cardamom

Cardamom prices gained on good buying amid a squeeze in supply at auctions held in Kerala and Tamil Nadu. Upcountry dealers as well as exporters were covering as it has become clear that no arrival of fresh cardamom will take place till the next season picking begins, by mid-June. This sentiment has prompted all stakeholders to become active in the market. Consequently, prices moved up by Rs. 20-30 a kg last week. Quality of the capsules arriving were not up to the mark and there was a shrinkage in supply.

Arrivals last week stood at 295 tonnes as against 390 tonnes the previous week. Though the south-west monsoon was declared “normal” last year after two consecutive years of drought, the cardamom growing areas received poor rains. Cardamom farmers say the monsoon was very bad and about 50 per cent deficient. A failed north-east monsoon also added to the crop worry. The farmers say that last year they received just about 10 per cent rains compared to what they used to get normally during the north-east monsoon.

The yields are thus likely to take a hit and are expected to be just 30 per cent of last year’s. Prices are expected to remain high as cardamom enters its lean season which is between February and May when the supply comes down. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.83% to settled at 715 while prices up 1.3 rupees, now Cardamom is getting support at 1397 and below same could see a test of 1386.2 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 1424.8, a move above could see prices testing 1441.8.

 

Trading Ideas:

*  Cardamom trading range for the day is 1386.2-1441.8.

*  Cardamom prices gained on good buying amid a squeeze in supply at auctions held in Kerala and Tamil Nadu.

*  Arrivals last week stood at 295 tonnes as against 390 tonnes the previous week.

*  Quality of the capsules arriving were not up to the mark and there was a shrinkage in supply.

*  Cardamom prices in spot market gained by 10.80 rupees and settled at 1142.00 rupees.

 

Cotton

Cotton on MCX settled up 0.28% at 21420 after the China Cotton Association released data indicating robust demand for the fiber from the third largest cotton importer. Chinese imports for last month soared 146% year-on-year to 138,100 tons, according to the China Cotton Association. The news follows a 20% rise in January to 114,924 tons. Prices gained on robust demand for U.S. fiber overseas and the solid demand from China comes despite the Chinese government's daily auctions of 30,000 tons of cotton from its stockpiles to feed it domestic market.

Domestic mills in China have been buying the imported fiber to blend with China's older cotton. Even as the cotton trade body maintains a higher crop size of 34.1 million bales (each of 170 kg) than last year's 33.8 million bales, prices are unlikely to cool off in the near future. With an opening stock of about 4.5 million bales at the beginning of the 2016-17 season, the Cotton Association of India (CAI) has projected a total demand of 29.5 million bales for the year, against 38.2 million bales last year. CAI's estimates put available the surplus at 11.2 million bales. However, looking at the trends in cotton arrivals at mandis, as much as 70 per cent of the crop is believed to have already hit the market.

As arrivals rose cotton prices indicated a softening trend from their initial peak levels. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.95% to settled at 4726 while prices up 60 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 21306.6 and below same could see a test of 21193.3 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 21506.6, a move above could see prices testing 21593.3.

 

Trading Ideas:

*  Cotton trading range for the day is 21193-21593.

*  Cotton gained after the China Cotton Association released data indicating robust demand for the fiber from the third largest cotton importer.

*  Chinese imports for last month soared 146% year-on-year to 138,100 tons, according to the China Cotton Association.

*  The cotton trade body maintains a higher crop size of 34.1 million bales (each of 170 kg) than last year's 33.8 million bales

*  Cotton prices in spot market gained by 20.00 rupees and settled at 20880.00 rupees.

 

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