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Published on 9/12/2019 9:52:25 AM | Source: Kedia Commodity Ltd

Chana trading range for the day is 4418-4508 - Kedia Commodity

Posted in Commodities Reports| #Kedia Commodity Ltd #Commodity Tips

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Gold

Gold on MCX settled down -1.01% at 37699 as traders went for riskier assets such as equities thanks to upbeat U.S. monthly jobs data and rising optimism about a phase one U.S.-China trade deal. Pressure also seen after China's announcement to waive import tariffs on some American goods. U.S. President Donald Trump also said that the trade talks were "moving right along" but some in the market remained cautious. China's finance ministry said that import tariffs for some pork and soybeans from the United States will be waived, indicating a positive move to de-escalate the trade war ahead of U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods effective from Dec. 15. In trade news, a phase one-trade deal between the U.S. and China was still in the works and a partial resolution would be completed before another set of China tariffs kick in on December 15. U.S. President Donald Trump said an agreement might have to wait until after the U.S. presidential election in November 2020. U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross had said in an interview that planned tariffs on Chinese imports would be imposed on December 15 as scheduled unless there is substantive progress in trade talks. Demand for physical gold was moderate in India due to lower than usual wedding season buying, while top consumer China saw increased activity as wholesalers cleared out inventories into the year-end. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.3% to settled at 16428 while prices down -386 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 37529 and below same could see a test of 37360 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 37993, a move above could see prices testing 38288.         

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 37360-38288.

* Gold prices slipped as traders went for riskier assets such as equities thanks to upbeat U.S. monthly jobs data and rising optimism about a phase one U.S.-China trade deal.

* Pressure also seen after China's announcement to waive import tariffs on some American goods.

* The unemployment rate came in at 3.5%, down from October’s reading of 3.6% and also beating expectations

               

Silver

Silver on MCX settled down -2.39% at 43545 as strong U.S. jobs data renewed bets the Federal Reserve would stand pat on interest rates and also boosted demand for riskier assets. In a positive gesture, China said it will waive import tariffs for some soybeans and pork shipments from the United States. U.S. job growth increased by the most in 10 months in November as former striking workers returned to General Motors' payrolls and the healthcare industry stepped up hiring, confirming that the economy remained on a moderate expansion path despite a prolonged manufacturing slump. The Labor Department's closely watched monthly employment report showed steady wage gains and the unemployment rate falling back to 3.5%. In U.S. economic news, a report from the Commerce Department showed U.S. trade deficit narrowed in the month of October. The report said trade deficit narrowed to $47.2 billion in October from a revised $51.1 billion in September. New orders for U.S. manufactured goods increased in line with economist estimates in the month of October, according to a report released by the Commerce Department. The Commerce Department said factory orders rose by 0.3 percent in October after falling by a revised 0.8 percent in September. The Labor Department released a report showing an expected decrease in first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits in the week ended November 30th. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 18.74% to settled at 13996 while prices down -1065 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 43106 and below same could see a test of 42666 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 44350, a move above could see prices testing 45154.       

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 42666-45154.

* Silver dropped as strong U.S. jobs data renewed bets the Federal Reserve would stand pat on interest rates and also boosted demand for riskier assets

* In a positive gesture, China said it will waive import tariffs for some soybeans and pork shipments from the United States. 

* The Labor Department's closely watched monthly employment report showed steady wage gains and the unemployment rate falling back to 3.5%.

               

Crude oil

Crude oil on MCX settled up 1.08% at 4206 after OPEC and its allies agreed to deepen output cuts by 500,000 barrels per day in early 2020. The additional cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other major producers including Russia – a grouping known as OPEC+ – will last throughout the first quarter. The group will meet again in early March for an extraordinary meeting to set its policy. Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said the kingdom, the world's largest oil exporter and OPEC's defacto leader, would continue a voluntary cut of 400,000 bpd. Major oil producers Saudi Arabia and Russia will seek approval for deeper output cuts from OPEC and allies in an attempt to support prices and avoid a new oil glut. The group combining over 20 producers is considering an extra 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) in cuts for the first quarter of 2020 to take the total to 1.7 million bpd, or 1.7% of global demand, Russian energy minister Alexander Novak said. OPEC watchers had expected the OPEC+ group to extend cuts at least until June 2020 but non-OPEC Russia objected to the move. The cuts are aimed at supporting crude oil prices and guarding against oversupply, though non-participants led by the United States continue to raise production. U.S. crude stocks fell by 4.9 million barrels in the week to Nov. 29 as refineries hiked output, the Energy Information Administration said, a much deeper draw than expected. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.21% to settled at 19487, now Crude oil is getting support at 4125 and below same could see a test of 4043 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4278, a move above could see prices testing 4349.         

Trading Ideas:

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 4043-4349.

* Crude oil gained after OPEC and its allies agreed to deepen output cuts by 500,000 barrels per day in early 2020.

* OPEC Delegate: Quota reduction split 372k b/d OPEC members and 131k b/d non-OPEC members

* Azerbaijan Oil Min Al Falih: OPEC+ agreed to cut output for at least Q1

               

Natural gas

Natural gas on MCX settled down -3.78% at 168 on forecasts for less cold next week than previously expected despite an outlook calling for chillier weather and more heating demand in late December. Meteorologists forecast average temperatures in the U.S. Lower 48 states would turn from warmer than normal now through Dec. 10 to colder than normal from Dec. 11-19 before returning to near normal levels after Dec. 20. With colder weather coming, Refinitiv projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 115.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 119.7 bcfd next week and 131.2 bcfd in two weeks. Utilities likely pulled 82 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended Dec. 6. That compares with a withdrawal of 75 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2014-18) average decline of 68 bcf. Stocks would likely return to a surplus over the five-year average during the next month or so as rising production enables utilities to leave more gas in storage. Gas production in the Lower 48 states slipped to 95.6 bcfd on Thursday from 95.8 bcfd on Wednesday, according to data provider Refinitiv. That compares with an average of 95.9 bcfd last week and a record high of 96.3 bcfd on Nov. 30. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 15.02% to settled at 23712 while prices down -6.6 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 165.7 and below same could see a test of 163.5 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 172.1, a move above could see prices testing 176.3.           

Trading Ideas:

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 163.5-176.3.

* Natural gas eased on forecasts for less cold next week than previously expected despite an outlook calling for chillier weather

* Meteorologists forecast average temperatures in the U.S. Lower 48 states would turn from warmer than normal now through Dec. 10 to colder

* Utilities likely pulled 82 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended Dec. 6.

               

Copper

Copper on MCX settled up 1.74% at 438.1 on U.S. President Donald Trump’s upbeat tone on trade talks with China. The talks were “moving right along”, Trump said, even as Chinese officials insisted that both sides must cancel some tariffs to clinch a “phase one” deal. Mixed signals on a trade deal have kept investors largely cautious this week, with a new round of U.S. tariffs covering about $156 billion of Chinese imports set to kick in on Dec. 15. Investors will also eye Chinese data due next week, after factory activity in the world’s second largest economy showed surprising signs of improvement in November. China’s production of copper cathode rose in November for a second straight month, bolstered by the ramp-up of newly-commissioned projects such as Guangxi Nanguo, Yunnan Copper’s phase two in Chifeng and Zijin Mining’s smelter in Heilongjiang. Data showed that 798,800 mt of copper cathode was produced in China last month, up 2.02% from October and 7.07% from November 2018. Production in January-November stood at 8.14 million mt, up 2.09% from the same period a year earlier. With the year drawing to a close, smelters’ rush to fulfill annual production targets also helped lift overall output in November. There barely were smelters affected by maintenance last month. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.86% to settled at 5554 while prices up 7.5 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 433.1 and below same could see a test of 427.9 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 441.1, a move above could see prices testing 443.9.               

Trading Ideas: 

* Copper trading range for the day is 427.9-443.9.

* Copper prices gained on U.S. President Donald Trump’s upbeat tone on trade talks with China.

* The talks were “moving right along”, Trump said, even as Chinese officials insisted that both sides must cancel some tariffs to clinch a “phase one” deal.

* China’s production of copper cathode rose in November for a second straight month, bolstered by the ramp-up of newly-commissioned projects

               

Zinc

Zinc on MCX settled up 0.19% at 183.1 as support seen after China said it would waive import tariffs on some goods from the United States and U.S. President Donald Trump said negotiations were "moving right along". China refined zinc production continued its increase in November, hitting new highs, on the back of capacity recovery and new projects. Data showed that China produced 530,800 mt of refined zinc last month, up 0.29% from October and 16.31% from November 2018. This brought production in the first 11 months of 2019 to 5.31 million mt, with a year-on-year increase of 8.71%.Inventories of zinc ingot across Shanghai-bonded areas fell, after two consecutive weeks of increases, as cargoes were shipped abroad. Data showed that Shanghai bonded zinc stocks decreased 1,100 mt from a week earlier to 79,800 mt as of Friday December 6. Social inventories of refined zinc across Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong and Hebei stood at 129,900 mt as of December 6, down 12,400 mt from Friday November 29 and 11,500 mt from Monday December 2, showed data. Shanghai and Guangdong primarily contributed to the inventory decline, down 5,900 mt and 4,100 mt on week respectively, as downstream consumers restocked amid stable orders. With rising spot premiums in Shanghai and widening price spreads between Shanghai and Guangdong, cargoes were removed from Guangdong to east China and remained en route. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.49% to settled at 2696 while prices up 0.35 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 182.3 and below same could see a test of 181.4 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 184.3, a move above could see prices testing 185.4.  

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 181.4-185.4.

* Zinc gained as support seen after China said it would waive import tariffs on some goods from US and President Trump said negotiations were "moving right along".

* China refined zinc production continued its increase in November, hitting new highs, on the back of capacity recovery and new projects.

* Inventories of zinc ingot across Shanghai-bonded areas fell, after two consecutive weeks of increases, as cargoes were shipped abroad.

               

Nickel

Nickel on MCX settled up 1.4% at 997.4 as market sentiment was boosted after China's central bank on Friday pumped cash into the financial system via medium-term lending facility to maintain liquidity in the market.  Inventories of refined nickel in the Shanghai bonded areas rose 400 mt from a week ago to 17,100 mt as of December 6, showed data. Briquettes accounted for 4,350 mt, 450 mt higher than a week earlier. Indonesia expects to have 29 nickel smelters operating by 2022, with total annual input capacity of nearly 70 million tonnes, a mining ministry official said, in a downward revision of a November projection of ore refining capacity. Indonesia has 11 of the 29 smelters already in operation, with annual input capacity of nearly 27 million tonnes. The government also revised down its projection for bauxite smelters to nine, from 11 previously. The government is pushing for domestic ore processing to add value to its exports. Indonesia, a major exporter of nickel ore, is set to stop exports of raw nickel in January. Exports of other ore and concentrates will stop in 2022. The nickel price bubble is slowly deflating but bears would be advised to tread carefully with a sharp fall in LME inventory threatening a repeat of the timespread turbulence that rocked the London market in late September. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -15.08% to settled at 1295 while prices up 13.8 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 987.2 and below same could see a test of 977 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1005.8, a move above could see prices testing 1014.2. 

Trading Ideas:

* Nickel trading range for the day is 977-1014.2.

* Nickel gained as market sentiment was boosted after China's central bank on Friday pumped cash into the financial system via medium-term lending facility

* Indonesia expects to have 29 nickel smelters operating by 2022, with total annual input capacity of nearly 70 million tonnes.

* Indonesia has 11 of the 29 smelters already in operation, with annual input capacity of nearly 27 million tonnes.

 

Aluminium

Aluminium on MCX settled up 0.49% at 133.25 after data unexpectedly showed U.S. employment rose at the fastest rate in 10 months in November, suggested the economy was not in danger of stalling. Mixed signals about trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing have roiled the markets. The US and China are still at odds over the size of Chinese agriculture purchases, following a report that the two economies are moving closer on their first-phase deal. The US trade deficit fell in October to its lowest level in more than a year as exports and imports both slid for the month, the Commerce Department said. The deficit tumbled 7.6% to $47.2 billion from a revised print of $51.1 billion for September. Environmental authorities of Shandong province issued a list of "Grade A environmentally-friendly companies" that will be exempted from strict production curbs ahead of the winter smog season. More than 90% of primary aluminium capacity in Shandong is included in the list issued on December 3, including Weiqiao Aluminum & Electricity’s plants in Binzhou, Xinfa Group’s and Liaocheng Xinyuan Group’s plants in Liaocheng. Shandong is home to more than 20% of the total primary aluminium capacity in China, making it the largest primary aluminium producing province in the country. China issued a fresh batch of import quotas for aluminium scrap for 2019, with the quota volume declining sharply as expected. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.28% to settled at 1768 while prices up 0.65 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 132.4 and below same could see a test of 131.4 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 133.9, a move above could see prices testing 134.4.       

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 131.4-134.4.

* Aluminium gained after data unexpectedly showed U.S. employment rose at the fastest rate in 10 months in November, suggested the economy was not in danger of stalling. 

* Environmental authorities of Shandong province issued a list of "Grade A environmentally-friendly companies" that will be exempted from strict production curbs

* China issued a fresh batch of import quotas for aluminium scrap for 2019, with the quota volume declining sharply as expected.

               

Menthaoil

Menthaoil on MCX settled down -0.68% at 1291 as demand in the spot market is also low, due to low arrivals from the big centers of Uttar Pradesh. Last year, farmers sowed more due to good prices. Mentha oil production during the year 2019-20 may increase by 30-40%. Pressure also seen after the Bihar state government has completely banned all types of pan masala. Currently, this ban has been imposed for 12 months. Prices also seen pressure earlier amid expectations of higher acreage under mint due to lucrative prices throughout last year. Export demand of oil in global market is likely to be improved due to recovery in currency which is supportive for prices. Mentha sowing may witness a huge jump this year because of high returns farmers experienced the whole of last year. Production of mentha oil is expected to rise to 48,000-50,000 tn from 33,000-35,000 tn last year. There were estimations of a 20-25% rise in sowing in 2019 versus last year. Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1407.00 per 1kg. Spot prices was down by Rs.-2.00/-.  Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.72% to settled at 742 while prices down -8.8 rupees, now Menthaoil is getting support at 1285.2 and below same could see a test of 1279.4 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1299.9, a move above could see prices testing 1308.8.               

Trading Ideas:

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1279.4-1308.8.

* Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1407.00 per 1kg. Spot prices was down by Rs.-2.00/-.

* Mentha oil dropped as demand in the spot market is also low, due to low arrivals from the big centers of Uttar Pradesh.

* Pressure also seen after the Bihar state government has completely banned all types of pan masala.

* Mentha sowing may witness a huge jump this year because of high returns farmers experienced the whole of last year.

               

Soyabean

Soyabean on NCDEX settled up 0.44% at 4148 as prices remained supported amid extended monsoon rains feared delay in new crop arrivals and fear of some crop loss. As per Skymet, India may get lower Soybean crop of this season and expect total 12.15 million tonnes lower by 12% against last year record on account of heavy rains during post monsoon season. Rainfall have damaged the soybean crop mainly in MP state when the crop was at flowering to pod formation. The poor pod formation could not produce good quality of seeds. Soybean production in the country is estimated at 135.05 Lakh tonnes, the production is lower by 2.04% than the production of soybean at 137.86 Lakh tonnes previous year. Soybean Processors Association of India released soybean production data on Oct 10, 2019. Soybean production in the country is estimated at 89.94 Lakh tonnes in 2019-20 (JulJun), down 18% from last year owing to yield part of the month since farmers got engaged with sowing of Rabi crops and they also slowed down bringing new crop arrivals in mandis as they wanted to bring soybean with lesser moisture content to realize better prices. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  18 Rupees to 4099 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.01% to settled at 160985 while prices up 18 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 4125 and below same could see a test of 4101 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4181, a move above could see prices testing 4213.         

Trading Ideas:

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 4101-4213.

* Soyabean gained as prices remained supported amid extended monsoon rains feared delay in new crop arrivals and fear of some crop loss.

* As per Skymet, India may get lower Soybean crop of this season and expect total 12.15 million tonnes lower by 12%

* India's 2019-20 soybean output is seen nearly 18% down at 89.9 lakh ton as against 109.3 lakh tons last year

* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  18 Rupees to 4099 Rupees per 100 kgs.

               

Soya oil

Ref.Soya oil on NCDEX settled up 1.48% at 849.8 on increased buying tracking firm trend in soybean prices. According to Solvent Extractors Association (SEA), India’s October edible oil imports rose 13.45 percent y-o-y to 13.32 lakh tons from 11.74 lakh tons in Oct 2018. Export of soymeal from India during April-October of the current fiscal slipped 31% to 3.89 lakh due to higher prices of bean which made Indian commodity costlier in the internal markets, said Solvent Extractors Association of India (SEA). Last year India exported 5.68 lakh ton soymeal in the corresponding period, showed SEA data. According to Solvent Extractors Association (SEA), India’s oil year 2018-19 (Nov-Oct) edible oil imports rose 2.73 percent y-o-y to 14.91 MMT from 14.52 MMT in oil year 2017-18. Last year India exported 5.68 lakh ton soymeal in the corresponding period, showed SEA data. During April-Oct 2019, oilmeal exports to Vietnam fell to 192,440 tons  from 338,292 tons)  while exports to  South Korea grew to 557,510 tons up from 472,935 tons a year ago. According to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA), U.S. September soybean crush fell by 9.19 percent to 152.566 million bushels from 168.085 million bushels in August 2019, below market expectation.  At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 843.3 Rupees per 10 kgs. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.9% to settled at 47770 while prices up 12.4 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 841 and below same could see a test of 832 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 855, a move above could see prices testing 860. 

Trading Ideas:

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 833-859.

* Ref.Soyaoil prices gained on increased buying tracking firm trend in soybean prices.

* India’s oil year 2018-19 (Nov-Oct) edible oil imports rose 2.73 percent y-o-y to 14.91 MMT from 14.52 MMT in oil year 2017-18.

* Export of soymeal from India during April-October of the current fiscal slipped 31% to 3.89 lakh due to higher prices of bean

* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 843.3 Rupees per 10 kgs.

               

CPO

CPO on MCX settled up 1.88% at 709.4 boosted by expectations of tightening supplies and strong demand led by biodiesel consumption. Malaysian palm oil output in 2020 was expected to be lower than 2019, due to dry weather and fertiliser cuts. World palm oil stocks to fall by 2-3 million tonnes in the next 12 months, from September's 14.7 million tonnes. India's palm oil imports climbed 8% in the marketing year ended Oct. 31 compared with the same period a year earlier as buying of refined palm oil from Malaysia surged after New Delhi reduced import tax on the oil, a leading trade body said.  Total palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia is expected be flat next year, due to dry weather and low fertiliser application in the world's top two producers of the vegetable oil. According to Indonesia trade ministry, Indonesia kept Dec crude palm oil export duty unchanged at zero. The reference price is set 14 percent higher from lat month at USD 650.18 per ton, higher than lower threshold for export duty below USD 570 to calculate export levy. Indonesia taxes palm oil above trigger price of USD 750 per ton. Indonesia has kept crude palm oil export duty at zero since May 2017. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -11.22% to settled at 3759 while prices up 13.1 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 699.6 and below same could see a test of 689.8 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 714.6, a move above could see prices testing 719.8.               

Trading Ideas:

* CPO trading range for the day is 689.8-719.8.

* Crude palm oil prices gained boosted by expectations of tightening supplies and strong demand led by biodiesel consumption.

* Total palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia is expected be flat next year, due to dry weather and low fertiliser application.

* According to Indonesia trade ministry, Indonesia kept Dec crude palm oil export duty unchanged at zero.

* Crude palm oil prices in the spot market gained by 12.40 rupees and settled at 701.70 rupees.

               

Rmseed

Rmseed on NCDEX settled down -0.11% at 4421 on late profit booking after prices seen supported after revival of fresh buying by millers in physical to meet the likely demand of mustard oil. Mustard seed crushing by mills in India jumped 22.2% on year to 550,000 tn in November, according to Mustard Oil Producers Association of India data. Crushing operations picked up pace due to improved demand from oil millers and mustard meal exporters, an official with the organisation said. Crushing is also seen 50,000 tn higher on month from October's 500,000 tn, according to the association's estimate. Higher arrivals in November also supported crushing operations. Arrivals in November were 160,000 tn higher on year at 385,000 tn, the official said. Currently, high moisture level in the soil due to prolonged rains in most part of India is likely to delay sowing of Mustard. But above normal rain during monsoon in key Mustard growing area may lead to higher acreage for Mustard on account of sufficient availability of water. Central cabinet has increased the MSP of mustard for Rabi season 2019-20 by 5.36% to Rs 4425 per quintal as compare to Rs 4200 per quintal last year. Production of RM Seed is estimated at 93.39 Lakh tonnes, up by 10.05% than the production of 84.30 Lakh tonnes last year as per fourth advance estimates. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 45.05 Rupees to end at 4585.05 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 9.85% to settled at 10150, now Rmseed is getting support at 4413 and below same could see a test of 4404 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4435, a move above could see prices testing 4448.         

Trading Ideas:

* Rmseed trading range for the day is 4404-4448.

* Mustard seed prices gained as support seen after revival of fresh buying by millers in physical to meet the likely demand of mustard oil.

* India's Nov-Aug rapeseed oil imports slipped to 59,171 tons from 2.29 lakh tons a year ago due to higher prices in the global markets.

* NAFED had procured around 1.08 million tonnes mustard seed harvested in 2018-19 (Jul-Jun) under a price-support scheme.

* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 45.05 Rupees to end at 4585.05 Rupees per 100 kg.

               

Turmeric

Turmeric on NCDEX settled up 0.41% at 5902 as turmeric supply reported lower in the spot market as stockists holding back their stocks in the spot market. President of the Federation of Agriculturists Associations C Nallasamy urged the Tamil Nadu government to procure turmeric at decent prices to help the farmers as prices have fallen to one-third of the prices a few years ago. Meanwhile 1,500 bags of turmeric arrived for sale at the four markets. As per the market feedback, the quality of turmeric that is coming in the market right now is poor and from the old stock which led to the slowdown in demand. However Turmeric prices traded steady with a positive bias on expectations of rise in domestic and overseas demand. Crop losses in Maharashtra, Karnataka and parts of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu also supported the prices. Though there were reports of delayed sowing and seed being damaged, expected crop for the 2020 marketing season is 5-10% more than the current year. Also Sufficient carryover stocks and sluggish demand from domestic and overseas buyers capped the sharp gain in prices. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 5900 Rupees gained 9.35 Rupees.  Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 25% to settled at 5000 while prices up 24 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 5870 and below same could see a test of 5838 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5936, a move above could see prices testing 5970.         

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 5838-5970.

* Turmeric gained as turmeric supply reported lower in the spot market as stockists holding back their stocks in the spot market.

* President of the Federation of Agriculturists Associations, urged the Tamil Nadu government to procure turmeric at decent prices to help the farmers.

* Meanwhile 1,500 bags of turmeric arrived for sale at the four markets.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 5900 Rupees gained 9.35 Rupees.

               

Jeera

Jeera on NCDEX settled up 0.76% at 15900 on short covering after prices dropped amid better sowing prospects and good monsoon rains in all the production areas. However, incessant rains have increased the soil moisture levels in the production belts of Jeera which can delay the start of sowing by 10- 15 days for next marketing season crop. Good rains in major growing regions of Gujarat and Rajasthan raised the prospects of higher area under the spice. As per market estimates, the production for the current year is seen higher by 20-25%. (year-on-year). Weak response was seen from buyers at the current price levels. Higher production and continuous supply is capping the upside in prices. As per market reports, Buyers reported unresponsive in the spot market at higher prices level. Export demand from China supported the physical prices earlier during the arrival season, however the prices could not sustain at those levels. Overall, Export demand remained steady. Current year, Indian Jeera prices are mostly driven by export demand that is likely to shift to India as output in major producers Syria and Turkey is seen lower due to weather adversities. Overseas demand has little slowed down as fresh arrivals have started in other major producing countries like Syria and Turkey. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 175 Rupees to end at 16412.5 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 8.56% to settled at 2169 while prices up 120 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 15797 and below same could see a test of 15693 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 15977, a move above could see prices testing 16053.             

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 15695-16055.

* Jeera gained on short covering after prices dropped amid better sowing prospects and good monsoon rains in all the production areas.

* However, incessant rains have increased the soil moisture levels in the production belts of Jeera which can delay the start of sowing by 10- 15 days

* There were fear that jeera output in Turkey has fallen to only 4,000 tons from normal output of 18,000 tons.

* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 175 Rupees to end at 16412.5 Rupees per 100 kg.

               

Cotton

Cotton on MCX settled up 0.47% at 19140 on short covering after prices dropped due to improved sowing, higher imports and weak international prices.  USDA lowered India's 2019-20 cotton crop to 300 bales (each bale of 480 pounds) down 5 lakh bales it projected in October due to adverse weather conditions in some states However, the crop is higher than 2018-19 when pest attack in Maharashtra and Telangana and erratic rains in Gujarat hit yield. USDA hiked India's 2019-20 cotton import numbers to 18 lakh bales from last month's estimates of 16 lakh bales. USDA lowered its domestic consumption to 245 lakh bales from its October estimates of 247.50 lakh bales.  India's cotton sowing jumped to 127.67 lakh hectares until September 27 from 121.05 lakh hectares a year ago, showed agriculture ministry data. In its November report the USDA lowered its forecast for global cotton production in 2019-20 to 1,219.4 lakh bales.  This month's report 2019-20 world cotton forecasts include lower production, lower ending stocks and higher world trade, said USDA. World production is reduced nearly 30 lakh bales, with reductions occurring primarily in the United States, Pakistan, India, and China. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.33% to settled at 2113 while prices up 90 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 19056.6 and below same could see a test of 18973.3 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 19186.6, a move above could see prices testing 19233.3.     

Trading Ideas:

*  Cotton trading range for the day is 18970-19230.

* Cotton prices gained on short covering after prices dropped due to improved sowing, higher imports and weak international prices. 

* However, the crop is higher than 2018-19 when pest attack in Maharashtra and Telangana and erratic rains in Gujarat hit yield.

* USDA hiked India's 2019-20 cotton import numbers to 18 lakh bales from last month's estimates of 16 lakh bales.

* Cotton prices in spot market dropped by 10.00 rupees and settled at 18600.00 rupees. 

               

Chana

Chana on NCDEX settled up 0.58% at 4474 as support continues after extended monsoon rains reported to have caused some damage to the crop and quality deterioration is also a concern. Chana production is estimated at 101.3 Lakh tonnes during 2018- 19. Production Estimate is 10.98% less than the estimate of 113.8 Lakh tonnes during 2017-18. Overall, pulses production is also estimated to decline by around 7.95% to 234 Lakh tonnes 2018-19 from 254.2 Lakh tonnes in the previous year. As per market sources, Chana sown area might witness some improvement owing to good soil moisture due to prolonged monsoon rains in most part of India even till October end. However, at the same time, delay in sowing is also expected. Chickpeas/or desi chana imports into India have increased by 207.87% to 1.48 Lakh tonnes during April to August as compared to plants but the damage was irreversible and caused around 30% of crop damage in the district. Dry pea production in Canada is estimated at 47 Lakh tonnes in 2019-20 (Aug-Jul), up 30% on year due to a rise in harvested area, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said in its monthly report. Harvested area under dry peas in 2019-20 is expected at 17 Lakh Hectares, higher than 14 Lakh Hectares during the previous year. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.42% to settled at 36630 while prices up 26 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 4446 and below same could see a test of 4418 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4491, a move above could see prices testing 4508.  

Trading Ideas:

* Chana trading range for the day is 4418-4508.

* Chana prices gained as support continues after extended monsoon rains reported to have caused some damage to the crop and quality deterioration is also a concern.

* Chana production is estimated at 101.3 Lakh tonnes during 2018- 19.

* Overall, pulses production is also estimated to decline by around 7.95% to 234 Lakh tonnes 2018-19 from 254.2 Lakh tonnes in the previous year.

* In Delhi spot market, chana dropped  by -1.15 Rupees to end at 4304 Rupees per 100 kgs.

               

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