Published on 21/01/2019 10:25:56 AM | Source: Geojit Financial Services Ltd

Agri Picks Daily Technical Report 21 January 2019 Commodities - Geojit Financial

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Cardamom rallied to its highest level in more than eight and a half years in the week gone by. Amidst strong export demand, concerns over production and unfavorable weather in the major cardamom growing regions in Kerala propelled the rally to multi year peak.

*  India's output of small cardamom in 2018-19 (Jul-Jun) is likely to fall around 30% from last year's 20,640 tn, a source in the Spices Board India said.

* Jeera stayed trapped inside narrow ranges throughout during last week on NCDEX. Traders are probably awaiting fresh cues amidst lingering worries over fall in production in Gujarat. Makar Sankranti holiday last week in the major spot market influenced the trades as well.

*  India is likely to have exported around 120,000 tn jeera in Apr-Dec, up over 13% on year according to trade sources.

*  As per Gujarat state govt. data, Jeera progressive area of Rabi 2018-19 is 345,443 hectares as on 07-01-2019 which is lower than 382,599 hectares during corresponding period last year. Till now 108.31% sowing completed from Normal area 318,926 hectares.

*  Expectations of rise in arrivals in coming days and lacklusture demand maintained downwards pressure on Coriander on NCDEX. The commodity slipped to a one month low towards the close of the week.

*  As per Gujarat state govt. data, Coriander progressive area of Rabi 2018-19 is 29,630 hectares as on 07-01-2019 which is lower than 69,863 hectares during corresponding period last year. Till now 31.79% sowing completed from Normal area 93,196 hectares.

Turmeric slipped to one month low last week on NCDEX platform, weighed down by expectations of better crop in Telangana and subdued demand. In the meantime, activities in the major spot markets were affected due to Pongal holidays.

*  The International Pepper Community (IPC) forecasts that global pepper production in 2019 could reach 4.9 million tons, down from 5.2 million tons in 2018. Area of Vietnamese pepper may decrease by 26.7% to 110,000 ha in 2019. This is the result of a sharp fall in pepper prices.



*  Barring Mustard seed, all units of oilseed complex rose on Friday.

*  Most Active Feb NCDEX soybean rose more than one percent due to expectation of rise in export demand from Iran in coming days. Gains in U.S CBOT soybean prices also supported the prices in the domestic market as concern over fall in acreage in Brazil.

*  Refined soyoil on NCDEX also rose due to firm domestic soybean prices along with gains in U.S CBOT soybean oil, while January MCX CPO prices settled higher in sync with BMD Malaysian palm oil futures due to weak Ringgit against the dollar.

*  The most active Mustard futures on NCDEX trimmed off previous gains due to reports of higher acreage in key growing areas. According to Agriculture ministry, farmers in the country had sown mustard across 6.9 million ha as of last week up by 3% on year.

*  India's vegetable oil imports rose 11% on year to 1.21 mln tn, as per data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India on Tuesday. The overall imports in the first two months of oil year beginning November were largely unchanged at 2.35 mln tn. Upbeat shipments of crude palm oil, refined bleached deodorized palmolein, and crude degummed soyoil lifted total imports in December.

*  Malaysia's palm oil exports during Jan 1-15 rose 7.9% on month to 647,062 tn, cargo surveyor SGS said. Cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia also reported a 16% rise in exports at 60,220 tn.

*  Inventories of palm oil in Malaysia rose by 6.9% on month to 3.22 million tones in December, while those of crude palm oil were up 8.4% at 1.94 million tones, according to monthly report released by MPOB.

*  India's soybean output for 2018-19 (Jul-Jun) has been pegged at 13.46 million tones higher than 10.98 million tones in the previous year, according to the first advance estimate by the agriculture ministry.

*  The central government hiked the minimum support price (MSP) of the mustard seed to 4,200 rupees per 100 kg for the year 2018-19.



*  The most active MCX cotton prices rallied yesterday due to fall in arrivals in the spot market. Arrivals of cotton across major spot markets of India on Friday were estimated at 154,000 bales, down by 22,000 bales from Thursday. Lower estimate for cotton output in 2018-19 (Oct-Sep) also contributed to the upside. The April NCDEX Kapas Prices also rallied in sync with the spot market.

*  The near month most active cottonseed oil cake also rose yesterday due to improved demand from cattle feed industry. Moreover, lower cotton production estimation during this crop year also propped up the prices.

*  The Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd, for the first time, has received deposits of 100 bales of cotton from Somnath Farmer Producer Company Ltd, based in Gir, Gujarat, the bourse said in a release. 

*  Cotton exports to Pakistan are unlikely to see a sharp jump, despite the neighboring country scraping import duty, as high domestic prices have made exports uncompetitive.

*  NCDEX on Thursday marked 720 tn cottonseed oilcake for staggered delivery in the January contracts.

*   A shortfall in planting of wheat, pulses and coarse cereals pulled down cumulative rabi planting by almost 29 lakh hectares (lh) this week, as compared to the corresponding period last year, per the sowing data released by the Agriculture Ministry on Friday. The total planted area till the end of the week remained at 581.5 lh, 4.75 per cent lower than the 610.5 lh in the same period during the previous rabi season.

*  The government had 45.4 mln tn of food grain in its central pool as of Jan 1, more than double the fixed buffer of 21.4 mln tn, a senior official told Cogencis today. At this level, food grain stock is nearly 27% higher on year. Of the total stock, wheat was 27.1 mln tn, over 38% higher than the year-ago period, while rice was 18.3 mln tn, up 13% on year, according to the data shared by the official.



Guar seed and guar gum traded firm in the futures segment on Thursday. Expectations of good demand from the US and China in the midst of lower arrivals is likely to support the sentiments.

*  According data released by the Agriculture Ministry on Jan 11, chana acreage is down to 9.46 million hectares compared to 10.63 million hectares a year ago. Total rabi pulses acreage is 14.79 million hectares compared to 15.69 million hectares a year ago.

*  Chana area & production have been pegged at 417 thousand ha & 470 thousand MT in second adv estimate released on 4th Jan2019 by AP govt. in 2nd Adv estimate. Yield has been pegged at 1126 kg per ha. However, actual yield received by farmers is lower and crop seems affected by dry spell. Farmers say that they are receiving only 50% yield from last year.

Feb Rubber futures on ICEX platform declined for the second successive, while in the spot market RSS4 grade rubber was held at Rs.125 a kg through out the week.

*  India's natural rubber production is seen at 725,000 tn this year compared with 645,000 tn estimated for 2018, Jom Jacob, senior economist at the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries, said. India's natural rubber output could to grow by 30% in 2019, but a 30% fall in domestic prices has held back growers from tapping trees, Jacob said. Of the total area under rubber cultivation, 30% of the area remains untapped by farmers due to low prices.

*  Natural rubber output in Tripura is seen rising 30% on year to 85,000 tn in 2019, due to supportive weather conditions in growing areas and preventive measures adopted by the state government, said Tinku Roy, chairman of Tripura Industrial Development Corp.

TOCOM rubber prices at fresh 7-month highs due to softness in Yen along with Friday's jump in oil prices. Furthermore, hopes that trade tensions between the US and China might ease has boosted the sentiment. TOCOM 6- month ribbed smoked sheets is currently up by 2.8% at Y191.4/kilogram.


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