Published on 16/07/2019 9:07:56 AM | Source: Geojit Financial Services Ltd

Agri Picks Daily Technical Report 16 July 2019 Commodities - Geojit Financial

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* Jeera futures on NCDEX rallied on Monday, with the most active August futures on the bourse hitting a seven month high. Strong export demand amidst lower supplies trig-gered the up-swing in prices.

* According to the farm ministry's second advance estimates, jeera output is seen at 423,000 tn in 2018-19 (Jul-Jun), down 44% from the previous estimate.

* Following an initial rise, coriander August futures on NCXEX were held in thin ranges on Monday.

* Govt. estimates coriander output in 2018-19 to be at 756000 tonnes versus 784000 tonnes.

* Stretching gains, Turmeric August futures on NCDEX gained nearly four per cent on Monday. Expectation of decline in acreage this Kharif season owing to deficient rain-fall in some of the major turmeric cultivating states propped-up prices.

* In Maharashtra Nanded and Basmat regions, Turmeric seed quality which are stored (on the field itself) for sowing purpose reported damaged by 10 - 15% due to dry weather. Turmeric sowing continued slowly, next 10 – 15 days crucial for area point of view. If prevailing weather (very less rainfall) continues area likely to go down by 20 -25%. In Maharashtra, rainfall during 01-03-2019 to 03-07-2019, in Marathwada region lower by 30% and in Madhya Maharashtra region rainfall departure lower by 12%.

* In Tamil Nadu, Turmeric growing regions lower rainfall was reported and so far only 15 – 20% sowing completed. Normally, turmeric sowing continue till July last week or August first week. Farmers are very worried for current situations and major dams are reported empty. If current situations continue for next 10 - 15 days, area is likely to go down.

* Govt ups 2018-19 turmeric output estimate to 1.39 million tonnes versus 1.15 million tonnes.

* Cardamom futures on MCX continued its up-run. The commodity hit another all time high on Monday on MCX. Unfavourable weather and expectations of lower production in upcoming season starting August weighed kept the commodity on the bullish trajecto-ry.

* Guatemala’s cardamom exports increased by 43.8% in value to USD 210.5 million in Q1 2019 year-on-year and it increased by 5% in volume to 13,960 tonnes.



* Mixed sentiments witnessed in edible oil basket on yesterday.

* Most active August contract of soybean on NCDEX initially traded higher and later settled the day lower as likely to increase acreage in key growing areas.

* The overall area under kharif oilseeds was lower at 7.6 mln ha, compared with 8.4 mln ha in the year-ago period. Area under soybean, the most-grown kharif oilseed, was down 19% on year at 5.2 mln ha.

* India's soymeal exports declined 83% on year to 18,185 tn in June due to subdued demand from key buyers. According to SEA.

* The August mustard contract on the NCDEX continued to trade higher due to improved demand from oil millers and crushers in the spot market.

* The NAFED of India had procured 1.06 mln tn mustard harvested in 2018-19 (Jul-Jun) under a price-support scheme, an official with the agency.

* Soymeal exports in May were at 18,470 tn, sharply lower than 76,026 tn a year ago, as per data released by The Solvent Extractors' Association of India.

* In its third advance estimate, the farm ministry increased soybean production estimate to 13.74 mln tn in 2018-19 from 13.69 mln tn pegged earlier. At 13.74 mln tn, the oilseed output will be a sharp 25.7% higher on year.

* As per SEA latest report, India’s castor oil exports plunged 30.5 per cent year-on-year to 36,669 tonnes in October, Slowdown in demand from China, which accounts for around 70 per cent of India’s non-edible oil exports, dragged overall exports lower. Castor oil exports were 3 per cent lower month-on-month, the data showed. The outlook for exports is bearish as demand in the global market is unlikely to gather pace in the coming months.

* According to Indonesia Palm Oil Association (GAPKI), exports of palm oil (CPO and PKO) from Indonesia rose 15 percent in March 2019 y-o-y to 2.78 MMT from 2.40 MMT in March 2018. Exports of palm oil (CPO and PKO) were rose 0.36 m-o-m in March at 2.78 MMT compared to Feb 2019 at 2.77 MMT. Stocks of palm oil in Mar 2019 fell to 2.43 MMT from 2.5 MMT in Feb, down 2.8 percent m-o-m.

* The US Department of Agriculture has scaled down its estimate for global oilseed production in 2019-20 to 586.0 mln tn from 597.7 mln tn, primarily due to decline in production of soybean and mustard in key growing nations.

* Soymeal exports volume of India is recorded at 12,265 tonnes in April 2019 lower than 68,264 tonnes in April 2018. Overall Soymeal shipments in financial year (2018-19) stood at 1,358,083 tonne higher from 1,1878,18 tonnes in FY 2017-18. Total shipment of Rapeseed meal in April 2019 declined at 94,462 tons against 97,891 tonnes in April 2018. However, cumulative exports volume of Rapeseed meal is recorded higher at 1,094,015 tonnes during FY 2018-19 against 663,988 tonnes in previous year supported by major buyers like South Korea, Vietnam and Thailand.

* The National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation of India has procured 1.08 mln tn mustard harvested in 2018-19 (Jul-Jun), 80,000 tn higher on week. In Rajasthan, the top grower, 606,487 tn mus-tard was bought, 250,985 tn in Haryana, 182,483 tn in Madhya Pradesh, 38,184 tn in Gujarat, and the rest was purchased in Uttar Pradesh

* Malaysia's crude palm oil output declined 9% on month to 1.52 mln tn in June, according to data released by the Malaysia Palm Oil Board today. Inventories of processed palm oil in the country rose 8.7% on month to 1.07 mln tn in the reporting month, while crude palm oil stock was at 1.35 mln tn, down 7.5%. Malaysia's palm oil exports in June were down 19.4% on month to 1.38 mln tn, while biodiesel exports declined to 31,022 tn from 66,617 tn last month.

* Malaysia's palm oil exports during the July 1-10 period are estimated down 2.9% on month at 366,242 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd.

* The Centre withdrew customs duty exemption on palm stearin with 20% fatty acid given to makers of oleo chemicals and soaps.

* Indonesia has reiterated its request that India lower its palm oil duties to levels on a par with Malaysia, compared with the current difference of 5%, according to a statement by India's commerce and industry ministry.



* Cotton acreage across the country, which was lagging 16% on year last week, has started gaining pace with area under the fibre at around 7.77 mln ha as of Thursday, up 0.3% on year, according to data by the farm ministry.

* Cotton arrivals at spot markets in India were estimated at 3,700 bales (1 bale = 170 kg) today, down from 3,800 bales on Thursday.

* India has signed import deals for around 2.5 mln bales in the current year. Of this, 1.1 mln bales have already arrived, and the remaining is being shipped for Jul-Sep deliveries, trade officials said.

* The Cotton Advisory Board today made a sharp 7% downward revision in estimate for India's output in 2018-19 (Oct-Sep) to 33.7 mln bales (1 bale = 170 kg) from 36.1 mln bales it forecast in its first estimate in November.

* In Punjab, cotton crop has been sown in nearly 4 lakh hectares and may go up by 10,000 hectares as the sowing is still going on, according to the State Agriculture department. The acreage was nearly 2.84 lakh hectares in 2018. In Haryana, farmers had sown cotton in 6.35 lakh hectares till June 6. Last year the total area under cotton was 6.61 lakh hectares.

* The International Cotton Advisory Committee sees global cotton prices under pressure due to esca-lating concerns over the US-China trade spat and on expectations of higher stocks. The committee sees global production in 2019-20 to rise 7% on year to around 27.6 mln tn due to an increase in global yields and consumption is expected to rise by 1% to 27.3 mln tn.

* The Chinese government has sold around 224,000 tn of cotton from its state reserves during May 5-Jun 6 against 262,800 tn offered at the auction. This year, the daily sale quota has been set around 10,000 tn compared with the previous two years' 30,000 tn because the total stock fell to 2.5 mln tn ahead of the auctions, compared with 7.0 mln tn a few years ago. In 2018, the country had sold around 2.5 mln tn cotton from its reserves. The Asian giant has been drawing down its massive cotton reserves built over the past three years.

* Cotton Outlook raised its estimates for 2019-20 (Aug-Jul) global cotton crop estimate by 308,000 tn to 27.36 mln tn, led by likely increases in the US and Uzbekistan. The agency has raised the pro-duction estimate for the US by 303,000 tn to 5.04 mln tn. It has, however, maintained its estimate for India's 2019-20 (Aug-Jul) cotton production at 6.13 mln tn.

* Cotton outlook has raised its 2019-20 global cotton consumption view to 26.69 mln tn from 26.64 mln tn forecast in the previous month. Global ending stock levels of cotton are now seen at 667,000 tn, compared with 409,000 tn projected in April.

* Cotton Outlook has maintained its estimate for India's 2019-20 (Aug-Jul) production at 6.13 mln tn, which would be 7% higher on year, the agency said in its monthly report.

* India's 2018-19 cotton production at 5.73 mln tn. Gujarat and Maharashtra are India's top cotton producers, accounting for 55% of the total output.

* The USDA has estimated that India’s 2018-19 cotton production would be 34.525 million bales, 7.5% higher than the estimate of CAI of 32.1 million bales, revised downward by from its previous one of 32.8 million bales. Cotton Association of India (CAI) strongly objected to the cotton production estimates issued by the USDA.

* The US Department of Agriculture has further lowered its forecast for global cotton prices in 2019-20 (Aug-Jul) by 1 cent to average at 63 cents per pound--around a four-year low--due to a sharp rise in production.



* The main govt.’s procurement agency Nafed still has over 4 million tonne pulses stock, it remains to be seen how much quantity is procured in on going kharif season under MSP operations. If prices of pulses drops further, govt .may procure pulses under PM-ASHAA programme.

* National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation of India has offered 252,300 tn chana for sale in Madhya Pradesh via electronic auctions, the agency said on its web-site.

* Haryana government has decided to exempt market fee on pulses/dals used as raw material in food processing industries located within the state by making amendment in Haryana Agri Business and Food Processing Policy-2018.The Agriculture Department had already approved this exemption in accordance with Rule 30(6) of Haryana Agricul-tural Produce Markets (General) Rules, 1962.

* The government has procured over 768,900 tn chana, harvested in 2018-19 (Jul-Jun), in nine states as of Monday, under the price support scheme, a government official said on Thursday. Procurement was carried out in Telangana, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, and Karnataka he added. The National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation of India and Food Corp of India have procured the commodity from farmers, with the latter buying just 50 tn of chana in Maharashtra, and NAFED picking up the rest, the official said.

* NAFED has procured 576,745 tn chana in Madhya Pradesh, the top grower; 114,261 tn in Rajasthan; 34,500 tn in Telangana; 22,346 tn in Maharashtra; 3,470 tn in Andhra Pradesh; 17,068 tn in Gujarat; 207 tn in Haryana; 263 tn in Uttar Pradesh, and the rest in Karnataka

* As per trade sources, export of guar split has increased in the month of May-19. Ex-ports in the month of May-19 are up by around 30.86% compared to previous month. India exported around 7739 tonnes of guar split in the month of May-19 at an average FoB of $ 1417.70 per tonne. Of the total quantity, around 6460 tonnes have been ex-ported to China.

* As per latest update, area sown in Rajasthan until 02nd July 2019 is 252.1 thousand hectares compared to of 373.6 thousand hectares for 2018 Kharif season. Area of guar is expected to be lower this season as farmers are shifting to Pulses and cotton this year due to better prices.

* According to latest update, area sown under guar in Gujarat until 17th June 2019 is 75 hectares compared to 13 hectares in the previous Kharif season. Sowing is in initial stages. Area of guar is expected to be lower this season as farmers are shifting to pad-dy as it is fetching more returns. The last three year average normal area for guar seed in Gujarat is 186650 hectares. Acreage is expected to be slightly lower in Gujarat.


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