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Published on 6/12/2019 10:02:44 AM | Source: Geojit Financial Services Ltd

Agri Picks Daily Technical Report 06 December 2019 Commodities - Geojit Financial

Posted in Commodities Reports| #Commodity Tips #Geojit Financial Services Ltd

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Spices

* On Thursday, Jeera January futures on NCDEX was seen trading in narrow ranges.

* The key spot market of Unjha, Gujarat will remain shut from December 16-23 on ac-count of local festival.

* Jeera acreage in Gujarat, the largest producer, was at 59,710 ha as on Monday, com-pared with 1.2 mln ha in the corresponding period last year, state farm department data showed.

* National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange has eased certain quality norms while modifying the contract specifications of jeera expiring from March 2020. Acceptable limit of the damaged, discolored, shriveled and immature jeera seeds has been raised to a maximum of 4.5% from 2.0%. The acceptable moisture content will now be up to 9.5% compared with 8.0% for contracts expiring until January. The quality norms were modified "to keep the contract in line with the physical market practices," a circular said. NCDEX has, however, reduced the permissible foreign matter content in jeera to a maximum of 1.0%.

* Coriander December futures on NCDEX stretched gains into second consecutive session on Thursday, gaining more than two per cent.

* Coriander acreage in Gujarat, the second-largest producer, was at 9,623 ha as on Mon-day, compared with 7,602 ha in the corresponding period last year, data from the state farm department showed.

* NCDEX has removed "less active" delivery centres for Coriander such as Jaipur, Guna and Baran. The revised terms for coriander will be applicable for the new crop con-tracts expiring from April 2020.

* On Thursday, the front month Turmeric pared previous session losses and ended more than one per cent up. However, expectation of higher production and tepid demand weighed on overall market sentiments, keeping gains under check.

* In Nizamabad, current season new Turmeric arrivals reported around 100,282 MT till 08th November compared to last year same period 81,088 MT, 23.67% reported up from last year.

* Cardamom MCX January futures ended up for the second consecutive session on Thurs-day, gaining nearly four per cent. Expectations of lower production this season lend support.


Oilseed

* Except soybean all other commodities under oilseed complex rose yesterday. More active Dec soybean prices extended correction due to higher arrivals in the spot market with subdued demand from crushers. Whereas, Dec Mustard futures traded higher on back of rise in demand at lower price levels.

* Imports of mustard oil were 75% lower on year at 59,171 tn in 2018-19 (Nov-Oct), according to data from the Solvent Extractors' Association of India.

* Mustard acreage has narrowed at 5.54 mln ha as of last weej against 5.86 mln ha in the year-ago peri-od, according to agriculture ministry.

* SOPA pegged soybean output this year could be at 9.0 mln tn, just two-thirds of the government's estimate of 13.5 mln tn.

* India's exports of mustard meal in October jumped 26% on year to 44,010 tn owing to firm demand from South Korea, according to the Solvent Extractors' Association of India.

* Soymeal exports slumped 83.5% on year to 24,740 tn in October, according to data released by The Solvent Ex-tractors' Association of India

* In its third advance estimate, the farm ministry increased soybean production estimate to 13.74 mln tn in 2018-19 from 13.69 mln tn pegged earlier. At 13.74 mln tn, the oilseed output will be a sharp 25.7% higher on year.

* The US Department of Agriculture has lowered its 2019-20 projection for global soybean production to 336.56 mln tn in its November estimates compared with 338.97 mln tn. At 336.56 mln tn, the production is likely to be 6% lower from the previous year.

* According to the SEA, soymeal exports in July were down 59% on year to 26,006 tn, the lowest monthly figure since September 2016.

* India's vegetable oil imports in September fell nearly 13% on year to 1.30 mln tn, and comprised 1.25 mln tn of edible oils and 49,533 tn of non-edible oils, according to the Solvent Extractors' Association of India. In the Nov-Sep period, vegetable oil imports were up 3% on year at 14.17 mln tn, and mainly comprised 13.58 mln tn of edible oil.

* import of RBD palmolein rose 8% on year to 264,308 tn, and that of crude palm oil fell nearly 10% on year, while import of crude soyoil was down 27.5%. As of Oct 1, India had 1.06 mln tn of edible oil lying at ports and another 740,000 tn in the pipeline. The country requires 1.9 mln tn of edible oil per month, while current stocks of 1.8 mln tn are enough to meet the demand for 28 days, the association said.

* The SEA reported that mustard meal exports were 19% higher on year at 93,837 tn in July.

* Mustard seed crushing by mills in India jumped 22.2% on year to 550,000 tn in November, according to Mustard Oil Producers Association of India.

* National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation of India has decided to "tentatively" offload 747,480 tn of mustard and 983,406 tn of chana over the next three months.

* The area under kharif castor seed crop was down 21.9% on year at 189,500 ha in the week ended Thurs-day, according to data from the farm ministry, due to slower pace of sowing in Gujarat and Rajasthan,

* According to the SEA report, castor oil exports in the month of June 2019 is 50.57 Thousand MT which is 18 per cent higher than the exports of May 2019 of 42.86 Thousand MT. Castor oil exports in financial year 2018-19 is 5.72 Lakh MT which is 12.1 per cent lower than the last year exports of 6.51 Lakh MT.

* According to the SEA report, The export of oilmeals during July 2019 is at 166,301 tons compared to 215,716 tons in July, 2018 i.e. down by 23%. The overall export of oilmeals during AprilJuly 2019 is reported at 851,070 tons compared to 966,874 tons in April-July 2018 i.e. down by 12%. The export of castorseed meal has increased to 229,820(75,597) tons, being mainly exported to South Korea. Apart from South Korea, France, Vietnam and Thai-land are major importers.

* As per the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA), all India castor seed production estimate for 2018-19 is 11.27 Lakh MT which is 21.35 per cent lower than the 2017-18 production estimate of 14.33 Lakh MT.

* Malaysia's crude palm oil output fell 2.5% on month to 1.8 mln tn in October, according to Malaysia Palm Oil Board data. Inventory of processed palm oil in the country was at 1.1 mln tn in October against 1.0 mln tn a month ago, while crude palm oil stock in October was at 1.4 mln tn, down 2.2% on month. Malaysia's palm oil exports in October rose over 16% on month to 1.6 mln tn, while biodiesel exports fell over 60% on month to 21,664 tn, the data.

* Malaysia's palm oil exports in November were estimated at 1.4 mln tn, down 7.4% on month, according to the private cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri.

 

Cotton

* Cotton arrivals at spot markets across India were estimated at 180,800 bales (1 bale = 170 kg), lower than 186,000 bales on Wednesday.

* The Cotton Advisory Board estimated India's 2019-20 (Oct-Sep) cotton production to rise by 9.1% to 36 mln bales (1 bale = 170 kg) due to an increase in acreage this year. The board pegged this year's imports at 2.5 mln bales as against 3.1 mln bales last year. The board also pegged India's total consumption at 38.1 mln bales, compared with 35.95 mln bales last year. The closing stock has been estimated higher at 4.8 mln bales as against 4.4 mln bales for the previous year, mainly on account of increased output.

* The advisory board pegged cotton exports at 5.0 mln bales as against 4.4 mln bales last year.

* The Foreign Agricultural Service India, an arm of the US Department of Agriculture, has scaled up its estimate for cotton production in India in 2019-20 (Aug-Jul) to 38.1 mln bales (1 bale = 170 kg) from 37.8 mln bales projected the previous month. India's cotton acreage is at a record high of 13 mln ha. The average yield is also expected to rise to 497 kg per ha from 458 kg last year.

* Cotton Corp of India has procured around 100,000 bales (1 bale = 170 kg) of cotton so far in season started October. The official said procurement is likely to gather pace from middle of December once good quality cotton enters the markets. Currently, daily cotton arrivals in spot markets of India were estimated at 115,000 bales. The daily supply is seen rising to 200,000 bales from Decem-ber. The corporation had procured 1.1 mln bales of cotton last year of which 850,000-900,000 bales remain unsold.

* The Cotton Association of India has estimated the country's crop for 2019-20 (Oct-Sep) season at 35.45 mln bales, up 13.6% on year due to an increase in area under the crop, and better yield. India's cotton acreage has increased by 5.3% to 12.71 mln ha. However, the percentage of Bt cotton acreage in the total area has gone up to 94% due to increased area under herbicide-tolerant Bt cotton. This is expected to boost the overall yield over the last year. India's total consumption to 31.5 mln bales, up around 350,000 bales from last year with mills seen consuming 27.6 mln bales, higher than 27.45 mln bales a year ago. The numbers are optimistic, given the slowdown in the textile sector, as indicated by the near 38% decline in cotton yarn exports in Apr-Sep. The year-ending stock has been estimated higher at 4.6 mln bales from 2.3 mln bales for the previous year, mainly on account of increased output.

* Cotton sowing across the country was up 5.5% on year at 12.8 mln ha, according to the latest data released by the farm ministry.

* UK-based Cotton Outlook has raised its estimate for India's 2019-20 (Aug-Jul) cotton production to 6.2 mln tn from 6.1 mln tn seen earlier. The latest estimate, given in the September report of the agency, is also around 8% higher on year. Cotton Outlook, however, has cut its estimate for global production to 26.5 mln tn from 26.7 mln tn seen earlier, mainly due to possibility of lower crop in the US and Pakistan. US crop is seen at 4.8 mln tn, down from 4.9 mln tn projected in August. In 2018-19, global cotton production was at 25.5 mln tn. The agency has also lowered its 2019-20 global cotton consumption estimate to 25.6 mln tn from 25.7 mln tn seen in August. Ending stock levels are now seen at 916,000 tn, compared with 960,000 tn projected earlier.

 

Others

* The area under rabi chana across the country was at 6.2 mln ha as of Wednesday, 10% lower from a year ago, according to data from the farm ministry.

* In Madhya Pradesh, the largest producer of chana, the acreage was 31% lower on year at 1.9 mln ha as of Wednesday, the data showed. In Maharashtra, the second-largest producer, the area was around 45% lower on year at just 361,100 ha. The acreage in Karnataka was at 906,900 ha, down nearly 9%. In Rajasthan, another key producer, the acreage was up 46% on year at 1.7 mln ha, while the acreage in Uttar Pradesh was at 509,000 ha, 12% higher on year.

* Chickpeas production in Canada is expected to decline to 2.63 lakh MT in 2019-20 due to lower area coverage and yield. Kabuli types production would decrease while desi type may increase slightly from last year. Total supply would increase due to higher carryout stock. Export from Canada may touch 1.5lakh MT in 2019-20.

* In Madhya Pradesh, the largest producer of chana in the country, acreage was 532,000 ha, 61% lower on year. In Maharashtra, the second largest producer, chana acreage was more than 80% on year lower at just 46,900 ha as of Wednesday. The acreage in Karnataka was marginally down at 672,000 ha. In Uttar Pradesh, acreage was down by 18% on year at 282,800 ha as rainfall was 43% below average in the state since Oct 1. In Rajasthan, another key producer of chana, the acreage was up more than 85% on year at 1.40 mln ha.

* National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation of India has decided to "tentatively" offload 747,480 tn of mustard and 983,406 tn of chana over the next three months, the agency said in a statement on its website. The agency has about 1.7-1.8 mln tn chana in stock, of which it wants to offload nearly 1 mln tn to keep prices in check, a NAFED official said.

* The National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange has modified tick and lot sizes of guar seed. Lot size of guar seed will be five ton vs 10 tonne earlier and tick size will be 2 rupees vs 50 paise.

* As per trade sources, export of guar split has decreased in the month of September-19. Exports in the month of September-19 are down by around 28.91% compared to previ-ous month. India exported around 2460 tonnes of guar split in the month of September-19 at an average FoB of $ 1425.03 per tonne. Of the total quantity, around 1540 tonnes have been exported to China.

* As per trade sources, export of guar gum has increased in the month of September-19 by 13.70 percent compared to previous month. India exported around 21532 tonnes of guar gum at an average FoB of $ 1722.53 per tonne in the month of September-19 compared to 18937 tonnes in August-19 at an average FoB of $ 1729.66 per tonne. Exports are expected to remain at slightly higher in October-19.

 

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