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Published on 21/11/2019 11:48:50 AM | Source: Motilal Oswal Services Ltd

Power & Coal Sector Update - Motilal Oswal

Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report| #Power Sector #Motilal Oswal #Coal #Sector Report

Power demand declines in Oct’19

PAF at NTPC’s Talcher improves but below normative levels

Conventional generation down 13% YoY

* Conventional electricity generation declined 13% YoY in Oct’19. On a YTD basis, conventional generation is up just 1%. Demand from western (-20% YoY) and southern (-14% YoY) regions was down significantly in the month. In Oct’19, coal-based generation decreased ~19% YoY, while nuclear and hydro generation increased ~32% and ~22%, respectively.

 

Total generation down 13% YoY

* Including renewable energy (RE) too, generation decreased 13% YoY in Oct’19 (YTD: +1.3%). RE generation was down ~6% YoY in the month on the back of lower wind generation.

 

Coal stocks now at 12 days

* Coal stocks at power plants stood at 12 days at end-Oct’19 (v/s 11 days in Sep’19) given lower thermal generation and demand.

 

IEX volumes decline

* Volumes on IEX decreased ~48% YoY to 3.4b kWh. This though comes on a high base of the previous year. On a trailing 12-month (TTM) basis, volumes were down ~14%. Average prices stood at INR2.71/kWh in the month (v/s INR2.77/kWh in Aug’19).

 

NTPC: Availability at Talcher improves but still below normative levels

* Availability factor at NTPC Talcher has improved to ~70% (v/s <50% during AugSep) but still remains below normative levels. PAF for NTPC’s Sipat plant improved to ~85% (v/s 57% in Sep ’19).

* PLF for NTPC’s S/A plants declined ~930bp YoY to 67% for 7MFY20 given lower offtake from Dadri, Sipat and Talcher. PLF incentives are expected at just ~INR250m in 7MFY20 (our estimate: INR1.3b for 7MFY19).

 

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