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Nifty : 19141

Technical Outlook

• The index started the week on a subdued note. However, buying demand from lower levels helped index to recover lost ground and settle the session near days high. Consequently, daily price action formed a bull candle with lower shadow, indicating elevated buying demand

• In the current week, volatility would remain elevated ahead of US Fed meet. We expect, index to extend the ongoing pullback amid oversold readings and gradually head towards 19450 in a zig-zag manner as it is 61.8% retracement of last leg of decline (19850-18838).

• Structurally, broader markets have undergone healthy retracement wherein >75% percentage of stocks (Nifty 500 Universe) are trading above 200-day ema in October against March23 reading <40%, indicating shallow nature of profit taking amid robust price structure

• The formation of lower peak and trough amid global volatility makes us retain the support base for the Nifty at 18700 zone as it is confluence of 52 weeks EMA coincided with previous swing high of 18887 which would now act as key support as per change of polarity concept

Nifty Bank: 43039

Technical Outlook

• The price action for the day formed a bull candle with lower low and higher high indicating intraday volatility as index recovered 700 + points from early lows indicating supportive efforts emerging from oversold trajectory after correcting 9 . 5 % from life highs .

• Going forward, we expect index to gradually head towards 43800 levels in nonlinear fashion . Therefore, use dips as buying opportunity in large banks (private and PSU both) as we expect index to hold key support of 41800 . Key support is placed at 41800 levels as confluence of :

• 61 . 8 % retracement of entire rally from March 2023 (38613 -46369),

• value of rising 52 -week ema which has been held on couple of occasions since CY2020 currently at 42700 (transitory breach usually is sign of capitulation)

• Structurally, Index is in the process of undergoing a retracement of March to July rally over while pricing in various negatives in the process . We believe current decline would lead to a strong higher base formation that would set the base formation for next leg of structural up trend

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