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Nifty : 22957

Technical Outlook

Day that was… Equity benchmarks extended breather over third consecutive session amid elevated volatility owing to election led volatility. Nifty settled the session at 22888, down 44 points. The market breadth remained in favour of decline as Nifty Midap and Small cap indices relatively underperformed the benchmark. Sectorally, pharma, financials relatively outperformed while oil & gas, realty, metal extended breather

Technical Outlook:

• The index started the session on a positive note and gradually dwindled the momentum as the day progressed. The daily price action resulted into small bear candle, indicating extended breather after recent sharp up move

• Going ahead, we expect volatility to remain high as we approach the fag end of the General election phases coupled with Q4 earning season wherein strong support is placed at 22400. However, looking at the broader structure, we reiterate our positive stance and expect Nifty to gradually head toward our earmarked target of 23400 in coming weeks. Thus, focus should be on big picture, as we are in structural uptrend. The anxiety will subside post event and markets will follow its structural up trend. Retracement of rally would thus provide a buying opportunity and therefore investors should focus on building portfolios and ride the uptrend. Our positive stance is corroborated by following observations:

• A) The index is taking breather after witnessing faster retracement wherein it entirely retraced past nine weeks consolidation (22800- 21700) in just two weeks hat bodes well for extension of ongoing up move

• B) In sync with the historical evidences, Nifty staged a strong rebound post 5% and clocked a new high, highlighting robust price structure. Empirically, index has corrected ~6% during polling phase of past four elections and eventually hit new highs around election outcome on three occasions

• C) The multi sector participation backed by improving market breadth (Amongst Nifty 500 universe, 77% stocks are trading above 200 days EMA), highlighting inherent strength

• D) Robust price stature of global markets and lower brent prices are expected to act as tailwind

• Structurally, formation of higher peak and trough makes us confident to revise support base upward at 22400 as it is confluence of 20 days EMA coincided with 50% retracement of current up move (21821- 23110) and last week’s low of 22404

Nifty Bank: 49142

Technical Outlook

Day that was :

The Nifty Bank index snapped three day winning streak . Public sector banking index declined 1 . 2 % . Index closed at 49142 , down 140 points or 0 .28 %

Technical Outlook :

• The Bank Nifty index started the session on muted note and then gradually underwent profit taking amid overbought conditions . Index then traded in a narrow 49300 -49100 band for second half of the session .

• Price action thus formed a small bear candle bull candle within Mondays high -low range indicating breather after quick 2100 + points rally in four sessions led prices to overbought zone (daily stochastics at 92 ) .

• Bias continues to remain positive as we expect dips to attract further buying demand and lead index gradually towards psychological mark and life highs at 50000 mark . Elevated support is placed at 48000 which is

• 80% retracement of past four session rally

• Value of rising 50-day ema

• Since late Jan’24 low of 44633 , Index is following a peculiar pattern that each 5 correction is followed by 7 % rally resulting into new highs to be made . This has resulted in a well channeled up move in Bank Nifty which is expected to head towards 50000 mark

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