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Fundamental Update

USDINR Monthly Options Snapshot The Indian rupee depreciated by 0.28% to close at 82.79 against the US currency in the previous week as a stronger greenback in the overseas market and a muted trend in domestic equities weighed on investor sentiments.

FII outflows from the capital markets also hit the rupee sentiment while weak crude oil prices lent some support to the unit which posted its fourth straight week of decline.

The dollar edged lower in today’s session but remained close to Friday's six-week high, as a recent flurry of positive economic data reinforced market expectations of tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve.

A slew of data out of the world's largest economy in recent weeks pointing to a still-tight labor market, sticky consumer prices, robust retail sales and higher producer prices, have raised expectations that the U.S. central bank has more to do in taming inflation, and that interest rates would have to go higher.

Week ahead, the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes will be in the spotlight amid renewed uncertainty over how high interest rates may ultimately rise in the central bank’s battle against inflation.

USDINR Derivative Summary

Highest Call writing can be seen around the 83.00 strike followed by the 82.50 strike.

Significant Put writing can be seen around the 82.50 strike followed by the 82.00 strike.

Derivative data suggests bullish biasness with key support around the 82.30 mark. Expected range 82.00-83.00.

USDINR Technical Outlook

USDINR pair traded in a narrow range and closed the previous week with gains of 0.28% at 82.79 mark. Short term trend in the counter remains positive as the pair forms series of higher highs and higher lows on hourly charts. On the higher side, 83.00 remains the key resistance while immediate support can be seen around the 82.30-82.50 mark. Biasness of this week is expected to be bullish.

As a weekly strategy, long positions can be initiated in 82.75 CE for the Feb24 expiry at 0.12-0.13 mark for an upside target of 0.30 keeping stop loss at 0.02 mark.

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