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Rupee Outlook and Strategy

• US dollar declined on Friday amid disappointing non-farm payrolls data. However, sharp downside was cushioned on uptick in US treasury yields and decline in US stocks

• Rupee future maturing on October 27 depreciated by 0.33% in Friday’s trading session on strong dollar and surge in crude oil prices. Further, RBI kept interest rates unchanged and maintained its accommodative stance. Additionally, market participants remained cautious ahead of jobs data from the US

• The rupee is expected to appreciate on a weakness in the dollar, persistent FII inflows and ahead of anticipation of improved economic data from country. India CPI data is likely to show that inflation eased in September and remained within RBI’s comfort zone. However, sharp gains may be prevented on risk off mood globally and surge in crude oil prices

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