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Rupee Outlook and Strategy

* The US dollar index declined 0.39% on Thursday as weekly US jobless claims numbers rose to 211,000 against forecast of 195,000. Further decline in US treasury yields weighed on the dollar

* The rupee future maturing on March 28 appreciated to 82.10 amid decline in the dollar index

* The rupee is expected to appreciate amid softness in the dollar. The rise in jobless claims has diminished the expectation of further aggressive rate hikes from the Federal reserve. The CME Fedwatch toll suggests a 60% probability of a 50 basis point hike in the federal funds target against its yesterday’s reading of 76%. Meanwhile, the focus shifts towards today’s key US job numbers and average hourly earnings to get a more clear picture on whether the job market is softening. US$INR is likely to face rejection near the 50 day EMA at 82.30 and decline towards the immediate support at 81.80

Euro and Pound Outlook

* The Euro witnessed a rebound on Thursday as weakness in the dollar supported the Euro to rise back towards key psychological zone of 1.06. Further, an upward revision in French Q4 private sector payrolls to up 0.2% QoQ from 0.0% has supported the pair

* The Euro is expected to trade with a positive bias amid weakness in dollar. The pair has held the support of 1.053 and moved back towards 1.06. On the daily charts, formation of a bullish engulfing pattern will support the pair. Hence, as long as it holds the immediate support at 1.053, it is expected to rise near the immediate hurdle at 1.065 (20 Day EMA). EURINR (March) is expected to rise towards 87.50 as long as it holds the key support at 86.50

* The pound gained more than 0.50% on Thursday and moved above the key resistance of 1.19 mark amid weakness in the dollar

* The pound is expected to rise towards 1.1960 ahead of key GDP numbers. The UK GDP (MoM) is expected to improve by 0.1% against previous decline of -0.5%. The pair is holding the support of 100 day EMA at 1.1828 and is likely to move above the 1.1960 level. The reversal in in the oscillator will support the rebound. GBPINR (March) is expected to rise towards 98.70. The support for the pair holds near 97.30

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