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Dollar Index marks century as Yield Rises - HDFC Securities 

● In a holiday truncated week, Rupee traded lower following risk-off sentiments and rebound in crude oil prices. Foreign funds remained net seller through the week as markets started pricing higher interest rate after RBI policy meets. Inflation number remained worry some for the market participants as energy and food prices elevated in March and April month.

● Spot USDINR gained 43 paise or 0.56% to 76.33 in the week gone. The pair is expected to trade higher with immediate resistance at 76.70 and support has been shifted to 75.70.

● India's foreign exchange (forex) reserves dipped by $2.47 billion to $604.004 billion in the week ended April 8, registering the fifth straight week of fall, as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) appears to keep selling dollars to prevent a slide in the value of rupee amid high import bills.

● Over the weekend, the Chinese central bank cuts reserve requirement ratio by 0.25 percentage point for all banks and additional 0.25 percentage point for some banks, according to a statement from PBOC. The RRR cut will release 530b yuan of liquidity.

● A gauge of the dollar’s strength headed for its biggest gain since July 2020 as demand for safe haven assets grew amid hawkish remarks by Federal Reserve officials. The euro pared losses after sinking to its lowest against the dollar since May 2020 and the German yield curve steepened after the European Central Bank affirmed its current plans for stimulus exit.

● Event calendar remains light on domestic front but on overseas side the focus will remain on China GDP as economy is impacted by lockdown and Russia-Ukraine news.

USDINR

Technical Observations:

● USDINR April futures closed above short term moving averages and took support at 55 days exponential moving average.

● The pair closed well above descending trend line resistance.

● Formation of higher top higher bottom has been seen on hourly chart.

● Momentum oscillators, Relative Strength Index of 14 days oscillating around 50 with positive direction indicating short term reversal.

● MACD given positive cross over near zero line and heading north indicating bullish trend.

● USDINR April futures has support at 75.80 and crossing of recent high 76.55 will open for 76.85.

EURINR

Technical Observations:

● EURINR April futures closed at multi year low and placed well below short term and long term moving averages.

● The pair has been forming bearish formation of lower top lower bottom formation on major time scale.

● Momentum oscillator, Relative Strength Index of 14 days hovering around oversold zone with southward directions.

● MACD has been placed below zero line and heading lower indicating continuation of down trend. ● ADX line is strengthening with –DI placed above +DI indicating bearish direction.

● EURINR April futures is having resistance at 84.10 and support at 81.50.

GBPINR

Technical Observations:​​​​​​​

● GBPINR April futures has been consolidating around 99 odd level.

● The short term moving averages placed below medium term moving averages suggesting short term down trend.

● MACD has given positive cross over but remained below zero line indicating weak trend.

● Momentum oscillator, RSI exited from oversold zone and flattening indicating near term consolidation.

● ADX line has crossed –DI upward indicating quick down movement coming days.

● GBPINR April futures is having support around 99 and breaking of the same will open for 96 odd level while on higher side 100 becomes strong resistance.

JPYINR

Technical Observations:​​​​​​​

● JPYINR April futures witnessed steady fall since March and trading in downward channel.

● The pair is placed below short term and medium term moving averages.

● Momentum oscillator, Relative strength index has been hovering in oversold zone with positive divergence but price action needed for trend reversal.

● MACD has been placed below zero line indicating weaker trend.

● Directional movement index is indicating weak bias as –DI is placed above +DI and ADX line placed at 46 level.

● Overall trend remains bearish and any short covering bounce will be used to make fresh short sell. The pair is having support at 60.10 and resistance at 62.30.

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