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Kedia Commodities

Published on 6/07/2020 8:25:07 AM

*KEDIA: EQUITY LEVELS*

*NIFTY* - 10607.35

Resistance: 10607.8-10643.1-10680.5

Support: 10535.1-10497.7-10462.4

 

*BANKNIFTY* - 21852.4

Resistance: 22087.4-22330.7-22499.4

Support: 21675.4-21506.7-21263.4

Angel Broking Pvt Ltd

Published on 3/07/2020 11:40:35 AM

Nifty Bank Outlook - (21953)

Bank Nifty index traded in a narrow range in yesterday's session and ended the day with a marginal loss. The broader markets rallied yesterday and hence, the banking index underperformed the Nifty index. However, from a near term perspective, we continue to be positive as the index has resumed the momentum post a consolidation. Traders are advised to use intraday declines to buy and trade with a positive bias. The intraday supports for the index are placed around 21780 and 21600 whereas resistances are seen around 22235 and 22520.

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Angel Broking Pvt Ltd

Published on 3/07/2020 11:40:25 AM

Sensex (35844) / Nifty (10552)

Yesterday. our markets kickstarted the day on a positive note owing to favourable cues from the global bourses. The momentum accelerated as the day progressed as we kept surpassing minor intraday hurdles one after another. Yes in between markets had some corrective moves, but overall the index managed to maintain its positive posture. Eventually, the Nifty ended the session at 4-months high by adding more than a percent to the bulls' kitty.

In the last few weeks, despite intermediate hiccups, we maintained our optimistic stance and advocated using all possible declines. Now, we can see the base shifting higher from 10000-10100 to 10300 now. Before this, 10450 - 10360 are likely to be considered as strong supports. On the upside, the momentum can get extended towards 10650 - 10700 levels. However, the short term traders are now advised to keep booking profits as we can see clusters of resistances at every 100-150 points up move.

Meanwhile it would be a prudent strategy to stick to a stock centric approach and follow strict stop losses. Yesterday, it was surprising to see BankNifty underperforming in the second half as we witnessed a good bout of profit booking in few index heavyweights. However, we still believe that the overall structure still remains bullish.

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ICICI Securities

Published on 3/07/2020 11:39:43 AM

Bank Nifty: 21953

Technical Outlook

* The Bank Nifty traded with high volatility and closed on a flat note on Thursday on account of the weekly derivative expiry . The BANK NIFTY ended the session at 21953 , down by 24 points or 0 . 1 % 

* The daily price action formed a small bear candle signalling profit booking after a positive opening from near the upper band of the recent consolidation range of 22500 . The index however maintained higher high -low highlighting continuation of the positive bias

* The index is currently placed near the upper band of the last two weeks consolidation range of 22500 -21000 . It has stiff hurdle around 22500 levels as it is the confluence of 100 days EMA (22470 ) and 38 . 2 % retracement of the entire Feb - Mar 2020 decline (31649 -16116 ) placed at 22450 levels . So only a firm closing above 22500 will lead to acceleration of the up move

* The index has already taken seven sessions to retrace just 50 % of the previous six sessions up move (19507 -22479 ) . A lack of faster retracement on either side also signals consolidation and base formation after the recent strong up move of 15 % in the last two weeks

* We believe the index has support around 21000 -20900 levels as it is the confluence of the : - 50 % retracement of previous up move (19507 – 22479 ) - the rising 50 days EMA placed at 21000 levels

* In the coming session, the Bank Nifty is expected to open on a positive note on the back of strong global cues. The bias remain positive as it is forming higher high -low . Hence after a positive opening use dips towards 21910 -21970 for creating intraday long position for target of 22170 with a stop loss of 21790

* The daily stochastic has generated a buy signal moving above its three periods average thus supports the overall positive bias in the index

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ICICI Securities

Published on 3/07/2020 11:39:19 AM

NSE (Nifty): 10552

Technical Outlook

* Equity benchmarks extended gains over a second consecutive session and ended the weekly derivative expiry session on a positive note. The Nifty climbed 132 points or 1.2% to end at 10552. The market breadth remained positive with A/D ratio of 1.5:1. Sectorally, auto, IT rallied the most while financials took a breather.

* In line with our view, the Nifty resolved higher and achieved our intermediate target of 10600. In the process, the daily price action formed a bull candle with a positive gap carrying a higher highlow, indicating continuance of positive bias

* Going ahead, a decisive close above 10600 would open the door for extension of ongoing up move towards 10900 in coming weeks as confluence of 200 days SMA, placed at 10891, coincided with negative gap seen during mid-March (10827–10752). Failure to sustain above 10600 would lead the index to consolidate in the broad range of 10200-10600 amid stock specific action

* Key point to highlight over last seven sessions is that the Nifty entirely retraced preceding five session’s corrective move (10553 – 10195) in just two sessions. A faster pace of retracement signifies a robust price structure. This, in turn, helped the index resolve above previous week’s high (10553) and form higher peak, trough supported by improving market breadth signifies inherent strength.

* India VIX, which gauges market sentiment, extended its losses and plunged 6% to settle at 26.5, indicating abating volatility, that signifies continuance of risk-on sentiment. The VIX has inverse correlation with the Nifty. Thus, we believe falling VIX will continue to act as tailwind for the next leg of up move

* The rejuvenation of up trend underpinned by improving market breadth makes us confident of revising support base at 10200 as it is, a) 38.2% retracement of last major up move (9544 – 10553), at 10168 b) in past three out of six sessions Nifty bounced from 10200 mark, indicating elevated support of last week’s low at 10200.

* Nifty midcap and small cap indices continued with their relative outperformance after a sturdy rally during June 2020, as both indices rallied 11% and 15%, respectively, despite elevated global volatility. Currently, ~65% constituents of the Nifty mid cap and small cap index are sustaining well above their 100 days SMA compared to last months reading of ~30%. The improving market breadth, signifies broader market participation, auguring well for durability of ongoing up move

* In the coming session, follow through strength above Thursday’s high would lead to acceleration of upward momentum, else continuance of stock specific action. Thus, any dip towards 10535– 10562 should be used to create long position for target of 10647

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ICICI Securities

Published on 3/07/2020 11:04:31 AM

Global Bonds

* Buying interest continued in Nifty stocks for a second day in row supported by positive global cues. Sectorally, the action was seen in BFSI, technology and auto stocks whereas profit booking was witnessed in pharma and FMCG stocks

* Despite witnessing buying during the day, the Bank Nifty failed to maintain the momentum. However, a recovery was seen in midcap banks. Most PSU banks witnessed profit booking whereas late selling in leading private banks also added more pressure

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ICICI Securities

Published on 3/07/2020 11:03:14 AM

Technical Outlook

Equity benchmarks extended gains over second consecutive session and concluded weekly derivative expiry session on a positive note. Nifty climbed 132 point or 1.2% to settle at 10552. In the coming session, follow through strength above Thursday’s high would lead to acceleration of upward momentum, else consolidation amid stock specific action. Thus, any dip towards 10535–10562 should be used to create long position for target of 10647.

Going ahead, a decisive close above 10600 would open the door for extension of ongoing up move towards 10900 in coming weeks as it is confluence of 200 Days SMA is placed at 10891 coincided with negative gap seen during midMarch (10827 – 10752). Failure to sustain above 10600 would lead index to consolidate in the broad range of 10200-10600 amid stock specific action.

The rejuvenation of uptrend underpinned by improving market breadth makes us confident to revise support base at 10200 as it is 38.2% retracement of last up move (9544 – 10553), at 10168

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ICICI Securities

Published on 3/07/2020 11:02:36 AM

Bank Nifty: Positive bias to continue to prevail above 20000...

• Despite a sharp swing on both sides, the Bank Nifty finally managed to close marginally below its monthly high levels. However, after a seventh week expiry, the index managed to close above 21500, which was last seen in April

• Private and public banks supported the up move whereas stock like Axis Bank and Kotak Bank are trading near their sizeable Call base, which may keep the index move in check. However, in the current leg of the Bank Nifty rally, PSU banks remained in focus. The short OI left uncovered for the July series indicates more upsides

• For the coming week expiry, little OTM strike Put of 21000 has sizeable build-up whereas the highest Put base is placed at 20000. Looking at the higher intraday volatility, we feel both levels remain important for the Bank Nifty. Call OI build-up is seen at 23000 strike, which can be looked as a target in the coming days

• Last week, sharp appreciation was seen in the rupee, which reverted sharply from 76.1 to 75.45 levels. We feel a depreciating US dollar and decline in the dollar index will provide a cushion to the rupee, which will be positive for the banking & financial space

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ICICI Securities

Published on 3/07/2020 11:02:24 AM

Nifty: Positive consolidation expected above 10200 levels

• The Nifty broadly consolidated above 10200 for the entire week. We believe this pattern will be followed in the coming week also. Positive consolidation should continue in the index

• The highest Put is now placed at the 10000 strike, which should remain a positional support. The highest Call base for the series is placed at 10500, which remains an intermediate hurdle

• Participation was seen from IT and FMCG heavyweights in the absence of banking participation. This kept the market in a range. The breakouts will come if the banking sector starts performing. The recent trigger of RBI meeting for one-time loan restructuring can bring that surge in banking stocks

• The volatility index remained sideways at relatively lower levels of 30% in June series. These levels may continue to be seen in volatility. Any sharp surge is not expected, which should limit the major downsides in Nifty

• Participation was also seen from the midcap space, which moved up 14% in the June series before the recent profit booking. The beaten down stocks will remain in the limelight while participation may become more broad if the index spends more time above 10200

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Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd

Published on 3/07/2020 11:01:36 AM

Bank Nifty Outlook

Bank Nifty opened positive and headed towards 22350 zones in first hour of the session. However, it wiped out all its intraday gains and remained consolidative with sustained selling pressure at higher zones. It formed a Bearish candle on daily scale and closed on flattish note by underperforming the Nifty index. Now it needs to hold above 21500 zones to witness an up move towards recent swing high of 22500 then 22750-23000 zones while on the downside supports are seen at 21250 then 21000 levels.

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