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ICICI Securities

Published on 22/01/2021 11:44:06 AM

Bank Nifty: 32186

Technical Outlook

* The Bank Nifty traded with high volatility on account of the weekly expiry as it snapped its two sessions up move and closed lower by more than 1 % on Thursday . The profit was broad based as 10 out of the 12 index constituents closed in the red . Nifty bank index ended the session at 32186 , down by 356 points or 1 . 1 % 

* The daily price action formed a bear candle which engulfed previous session price action signalling profit booking at higher levels after the recent strong up move ahead of key major event of Union Budget

* Going forward, index holding above Monday’s panic low (31650) will keep the bias positive and will lead to extension of the current up move towards our earmarked target of 33000 levels in the coming weeks as it is the measuring implication of the recent range breakout (31000 -29000 ) .

* In line with our view, the current up move is in a zig -zag formation wherein intermittent episodes of profit booking at higher levels around the vicinity of our target of 33000 is being witnessed after a 13 % rally (28976 -32718 ) in just five weeks which has hauled weekly stochastic oscillator in overbought territory (currently placed at 92 ) . However, temporary breather should not be seen as negative, instead it should be capitalised as an incremental buying opportunity

* The upper band of the recent range breakout placed around 31000 -30900 levels is likely to act as major support in the short term . It also confluence with the following technical observations : a) 38 . 2 % retracement of the current up move (28976 -32718 ) placed at 31270 levels b)The rising 34 days EMA which has acted as a strong support since October is also placed around 30930 levels

* In the coming session, the index is likely to open on a flat note on the back of muted global cues . W e expect the index to trade in a range with high volatility while holding above Monday’s low (31650 ) . Hence use intraday dips towards 31950 -32010 in Bank Nifty January future for long position for target of 32230 , maintain a stoploss of 31840

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ICICI Securities

Published on 22/01/2021 11:43:52 AM

NSE (Nifty): 14590

Technical Outlook

* Equity benchmarks witnessed profit booking as Sensex approached the psychological mark 50000. The Nifty entirely pared intraday gains and concluded weekly derivative expiry session on a subdued note at 14590, down 54 points or 0.4%. Market breadth turned in favour of declines with A/D ratio of 1:2. Sectorally, all major indices ended in red weighed by metal and pharma 

* The Nifty opened the session with a positive gap and scaled to a fresh all time high (14754). However, profit booking from higher levels dragged index lower yet managed to hold Wednesday’s low (14518) and eventually recovered 110 points from day’s low. As a result, index formed a bear candle with shadows on either side, highlighting breather after a faster retracement amid elevated volatility (as index seen ~440 points movement during the session)

* Going ahead, we expect index to endure its northbound journey amid rising volatility ahead of key major event of Union Budget and eventually head towards our earmarked target of 14900 by the end of January. Thus, buy on declines would be the prudent strategy as possibility of minor profit booking at higher levels can not be ruled out which would offer incremental buying opportunity to ride next leg of up move towards 14900, as it is confluence of:

* a)138.2% extension of May-September rally (8806-11794), projected from September low of 10790, placed at 14919

* b) Long term resistance trend line, drawn adjoining November 2010 March 2015 highs of 6334-9119, placed around 15000

* The broader market indices have taken a breather by retracing less than 38% of past three weeks rally which has helped daily stochastic oscillator to cool off the overbought condition (currently placed around 60).

* Eventually we expect, broader market indices to relatively outperform the benchmark wherein small cap index would outshine. Key point to highlight is that the Nifty midcap index has surged to new life-time highs, whereas small cap index is still ~22% away from all time high. Thus, we expect small caps to witness catch up activity

* The formation of higher peak and trough on the larger degree chart highlights robust price structure that makes us confident to retain support base at 14200 as it is 38.2% retracement of current up move (13131-14753) at 14134 coincided with 20 EMA at 14167 and Monday panic low of 14222 In the coming session, we expect Nifty to hold Thursday’s panic low (14517) and trade with a positive bias amid stock specific action as we proceed the Q3FY21 result season. Hence, use dip towards 14530-14555 for creating long for target of 14641

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Jainam Share Consultants Pvt Ltd

Published on 22/01/2021 11:41:36 AM

Nifty

Nifty opened with an upward gap and witnessed consolidation for most part of the session. However last hour selling dragged index lower to close near the day's low. Nifty closed at 14631 with a loss of 14 points. On the daily chart the index has formed a Bearish candle with long lower shadow indicating buying support at lower levels. The chart pattern suggests that if Nifty crosses and sustains above 14650 level it would witness buying which would lead the index towards 14705- 14750 levels. Important Supports for the day is around 14500 However if index sustains below 14500 then it may witness profit booking which would take the index towards 14350-14220 levels.

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SEBI Registration No.: INZ000198735, Research Analyst: INH000006448, PMS: INP000006785

Disclaimer. This is not a buy / sell recommendation. Posted for education purpose only. Please consult your financial advisor before taking the trade. Profit / loss is your own responsibility for your trade
 

Swastika Investmart Ltd

Published on 22/01/2021 11:40:36 AM

Banknifty (Spot):

Banknifty also witnessed sharp correction after hitting a fresh all-time high where 32000-31800 is the first important demand zone; below this, we can expect more weakness towards 31500 which is a critical support level. On the upside, 32500 will be the first resistance; above this, we can expect further strength towards 32800/33000 levels.

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SEBI Reg. No. :  NSE/BSE/MSEI: INZ000192732

Swastika Investmart Ltd

Published on 22/01/2021 11:40:24 AM

Technical Outlook:

Nifty (Spot):

Nifty witnessed a sharp fall from the resistance of 14750 but it manages to close above its 9-DMA of 14520 where if it slips below 14500 level then we can expect some more downside towards 14430-14400 zone while if it manages to hold 9-DMA then we can expect a recovery where 14700 will be an important resistance level.

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SEBI Reg. No. :  NSE/BSE/MSEI: INZ000192732

Axis Securities

Published on 22/01/2021 11:39:23 AM

HIGHLIGHTS:

Nifty futures closed at 14599 on a positive note with 2.47% decrease in open interest indicating Long Unwinding. Nifty Futures closed at a premium of 8 points compared to previous day premium of 0.50 points BankNifty closed at 32228 on a negative note with 5.59% decrease in open interest indicating Short Build Up.

BankNifty Futures closed at a premium of 42 points compared to the previous day premium of 41 points. FII's were Buyers in Index Futures to the tune of 1102 crores and were Buyers in Index Options to the tune of 2049 crores, Sellers in the Stock Futures to the tune of 195 crores. Net Buyers in derivative segment to the tune of 3033 crores.

India VIX index is at 22.18 v/s 21.55.Nifty ATM call option IV is currently 11.72 whereas Nifty ATM put option IV is quoting at 16.22

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SEBI Registration number is INZ000161633

Nirmal Bang Securities Pvt Ltd

Published on 22/01/2021 10:46:58 AM

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty faces an immediate support around 32000 level on the downside and on a decisive close below expect a fall to 31720-31500. There is an Immediate resistance at 32750-33000 levels.

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SEBI Registration number is INH000001766

Nirmal Bang Securities Pvt Ltd

Published on 22/01/2021 10:45:39 AM

Nifty Technical Outlook

Nifty is expected to open gap down and likely to witness profit booking during the day. On technical grounds, Nifty has an immediate support at 14500. Any move below the same may extend the fall towards 14430-14350 mark. On the flip side 14700-14770 will act as strong resistance zones. It’s a stock specific market and trade calls with strict stop loss.

Action: Nifty has an immediate support placed at 14500 and on a decisive close below expect a fall to 14430-14350 levels.

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Geojit Financial Services Ltd.

Published on 22/01/2021 10:41:40 AM

F&O OUTLOOK

Nifty outlook

FIIs raised their longs bets in index future by 13.8%, while cutting shorts by 0.47%. Following expiry of the last weekly contract of the month, FIIs hold the highest OI in put longs and lowest in call shorts. In the broad market option spectrum, traders boosted long positions in both calls and puts in the monthly contract. With just a week to expire, this points to an expectation towards expansion in trading range. Calls were boosted the most at 15200 followed by 14700, while puts were boosted the most at 14600, followed by 14700 and 13500 in the monthly contract. In the Feb weekly, calls were short the most at 14800and5300, but the contract is yet to get enough activity to be a directional indicator. The Feb weekly puts found more interest than calls, and attracted mostly longs, with OI increasing the most at 14200 followed by 14700 and 14000. Traders thus are positioning towards a 5% move, with just a week to budget.

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SEBI Registration number is INH200000345
 

Geojit Financial Services Ltd.

Published on 22/01/2021 10:35:49 AM

Nifty Outlook:

The close back above 14630, and the hammer thereof, diminishes the chances of collapse that was threatened by the sharp drop yesterday in the closing hour. Until a close below 14560 is seen, we would continue to entertain the 15200 view. Expect 14700 to resist early upsides though.

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SEBI Registration number is INH200000345
 

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