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Published on 4/03/2021 2:18:14 PM

Choppiness continues on Dalal Street

In line with Asian peers, the Indian equity benchmarks continued to show a sluggish trend in afternoon session, with Sensex and Nifty trading below their psychological levels of 51,050 and 15,150, respectively. Market participants took note of report where Piyush Goyal stressed on improving Indian quality standards to ensure that India is recognised as a quality-conscious country with which people can do business with confidence. He called for more and more use of artificial intelligence, big data and other technology-related solutions to help resolve standardisation issues facing industry and other entrepreneurs. On the global front, Asian markets were trading mostly lower as investors waited to see if Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell will address concerns about the risk of a rapid rise in long-term borrowing costs.

Back home, stocks from metal, telecom and energy counters were trading lower, while utilities, power and consumer durables counters were supporting the markets. Meanwhile, MTAR Technologies shares were in huge demand in the ongoing initial public offering as the issue was subscribed nearly six times on the second day of the issue. The issue will close for subscription from March 05, 2021.

The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 51044.44, down by 400.21 points or 0.78% after trading in a range of 50539.92 and 51166.71. There were 14 stocks advancing against 16 stocks declining on the index.

The broader indices were trading in green; the BSE Mid cap index rose 0.79%, while Small cap index was up by 0.92%.

The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Utilities up by 1.23%, Power up by 1.22%, Consumer Durables up by 0.82%, IT up by 0.51% and Consumer Discretionary was up by 0.48%, while Metal down by 1.76%, Telecom down by 1.05%, Energy down by 1.05%, Bankex down by 0.97% and Capital Goods was down by 0.39% were the top losing indices on BSE.

The top gainers on the Sensex were Tech Mahindra up by 1.35%, Sun Pharma up by 1.11%, Power Grid up by 1.06%, Dr. Reddys Lab up by 0.94% and Asian Paints was up by 0.82%. On the flip side, HDFC down by 2.51%, Larsen & Toubro down by 2.18%, HDFC Bank down by 1.81%, Bajaj Finserv down by 1.64% and Axis Bank was down by 1.63% were the top losers.

Meanwhile, Union Minister Piyush Goyal said that the Central government has three 'mantaras' for the infrastructure sector, which is upgrade, create and dedicate. He mentioned that in the 6 years, the capacity of India’s major ports has almost doubled. He said the government has developed smart cities and industrial parks and integrated ports with the coastal economic zones.

Goyal highlighted that the government is working on multi-modal logistics solutions to bring down the cost of transportation and increase supply chain efficiency. He also emphasized on integration of road, rail and waterways to bring down the cost of transportation logistics and ensure success in achieving One nation, One market. Appealing to all stakeholders to utilise the opportunity to transform from being 'service provider' to 'knowledge provider', the Minister said, ‘If we re-invent with technology driven solutions like robotics, automation, artificial intelligence, big data analytics, our sector will be SAFE: Sustainable, Agile, Futuristic, and Efficient.’

The ministry said ‘we are working to turn our coastal region into a role model for ease of living & ease of doing business.’ He also urged the industry captains to build industry at sea coasts. He said ‘we on our part will ensure ease of doing business, and will work in partnership with states for enhancing ease of doing business at state and local level. Let us work together with a triple engine: - Engine of Central Government, Engine of State Government, Engine of our Robust Maritime Sector. Let the engine of growth and development in India prosper and flourish.’

The CNX Nifty is currently trading at 15139.25, down by 106.35 points or 0.70% after trading in a range of 14980.20 and 15171.30. There were 24 stocks advancing against 26 stocks declining on the index.

The top gainers on Nifty were Adani Ports up by 4.61%, SBI Life Insurance up by 1.58%, Tech Mahindra up by 1.44%, UPL up by 1.31% and Wipro was up by 1.15%. On the flip side, JSW Steel down by 2.60%, HDFC down by 2.45%, Larsen & Toubro down by 2.13%, Tata Steel down by 2.01% and HDFC Bank was down by 1.88% were the top losers.

Asian markets were trading mostly in red; Taiwan Weighted dropped 305.32 points or 1.88% to 15,906.41, KOSPI fell 38.64 points or 1.25% to 3,044.35, Jakarta Composite lost 68.84 points or 1.08% to 6,307.92, Shanghai Composite declined 71.38 points or 2.00% to 3,505.52, Hang Seng decreased 651.13 points or 2.18% to 29,229.29 and Nikkei 225 was down by 628.99 points or 2.13% to 28,930.11. On the other hand, Straits Times was up by 9.50 points or 0.32% to 3,009.87.

 


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Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd

Published on 4/03/2021 12:28:08 PM

NIFTY : 15245

Nifty index opened gap up above 15000 and witnessed sustained buying interest throughout the day to mount towards 15273 marks. We witnessed positive momentum in the entire market with bulls having complete dominance and the session concluded with decent gains of around 320 points. It continues forming higher lows from the last three trading sessions and supports are gradually shifting higher. Now, it has to continue to hold above 15150 zones to extend its move towards 15400 and 15500 zones while on the downside immediate support exists at 15000 then 14900 levels

Expiry day point of view: Overall trend is bullish with buy on declines strategy but upside is also limited. Option traders are suggested to be with positive to range bound bias for an up move towards 15400 zones. Buy nearby 15200 and 15250 Call or Bull Call Ladder Spread.

Trading Range : Expected wider trading range : 15000 to 15350 zones

Option Writing : Aggressive Option writers can sell 15350 Call and 14900 Put with strict double stop loss

Weekly Change : Nifty index is up by 4.93% at 15245 on a weekly basis. Nifty VWAP of the week is near to 14975 levels and it is trading 275 points higher to the same indicates overall range bound bias with buying on decline.

 

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Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd

Published on 4/03/2021 12:27:48 PM

BANKNIFTY : 36368

Bank Nifty opened gap up and escalated throughout the day. Banking stocks surged and pulled the index above 36450 levels and it settled the day with gains of around 950 points. It formed a Bullish candle on daily scale and continues its formation of higher lows of the last three sessions. Now it has to continue to hold above 36000 zones to witness a bounce towards 37000 and 37250 zones while on the downside support exists at 36000 then 35500 levels

Expiry day point of view: Overall trend is buy on decline on a hold near to 36000 zones Bank Nifty till it holds above 36000 zones it could see an up move towards 36750 then 37000 zones. Option traders are suggested to trade with nearby Call like 36300, 36400 strikes or Bull Call Ladder spread

Trading Range: Expected immediate trading range : 35500 to 37000 zones

Option Writing : Option writers are suggested to write OTM 37200/37300 Call and 35300/ 35200 Put with strict stop loss

Weekly Change : Bank Nifty is up by 4.50% at 36368 on a weekly basis. Bank Nifty VWAP of the week is near to 35750 levels and it is trading 650 points higher to the same indicates bullish bias.

 

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ICICI Securities

Published on 4/03/2021 12:26:23 PM

Bank Nifty: 36368

Technical Outlook

* The Nifty Bank witnessed strong up move ahead of the weekly expiry and closed higher by more than 2 . 5 % on Wednesday to gain for the third consecutive session on back of firm Asian cues . The up move was broad based as all the 12 index constituents closed firmly in the green . The Bank Nifty closed the session at 36368 levels up by 948 points or 2 . 7 % 

* The daily price action formed a strong bull candle with a higher high -low after last two sessions high wave candle signalling strength and conclusion of the corrective phase .

* Going ahead, a follow through strength above Wednesday high (36455 ) will open upside towards all time high of 37700 in the coming weeks . Failure to do so will lead to continuation of the consolidation in the range of 36450 -35000 .

* The index over the past 12 sessions has retraced just 38 . 2 % of preceding 13 sessions sharp up move (29688 -37708), at 34645 . The slower pace of retracement signifies healthy retracement and a higher base formation

* The recent healthy retracement has helped the index to cool off the overbought conditions of daily stochastic oscillator (at 34 ) and paved the way for the next leg of up move .

* Therefore, any decline from here on should be capitalised on as incremental buying opportunity as we do not expect the index to breach the revised key support of 34500 -35000 in coming weeks as it is confluence of the following : a) The 38 . 2 % retracement of the budget rally (29687 -37708 ) placed at 34645 levels b) The last Friday’s panic low is also placed at 34658 levels

* In the coming session, the index is likely to open on a negative note on the back of weak global cues . volatility would remain high owing to the weekly expiry . However, we expect the index to sustain above Wednesday low (35570 ) and trade in a range Hence use dips towards 35680 -35740 for creating intraday long position for the target of 35960 , maintain a stoploss at 35580 Among the oscillators the daily stochastic is rebounding from the oversold territory and has generated a buy signal by moving above its three periods average thus supports the positive bias

 

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ICICI Securities

Published on 4/03/2021 12:25:59 PM

NSE (Nifty): 15246

Technical Outlook

* Equity benchmarks extended their winning streak over third consecutive session amid buoyancy across global markets. The Nifty ended on Wednesday at 15246, up 326 points or 2.2%. The market breadth remained sturdy with A/D ratio 1.75:1. Barring auto, all other sectors remained in green led by financials, metal, IT.

* The index started Wednesday's session with a positive gap (14919- 15064) and filled the Friday’s negative gap, indicating conclusion of recent corrective phase. As a result, index formed a bull candle carrying higher high-low, indicating positive bias as index witnessed follow through strength above last week’s high (15176)

* The up move was on back of multi sector participation with banks leading the up move (carrying 34% weightage in the Index). The market breadth was strong signifies rejuvenation of upward momentum that makes us confident that index will endure its northbound journey and eventually retest 15500 in coming weeks.

* Key point to highlight during current week is that, index has retraced 80% of past nine sessions decline (15432-14468) in just 3 sessions, indicating robust price structure. We believe, revived traction in cyclicals would drive the index higher. Hence, any dip from here on should be capitalised on to accumulate quality stocks

* On expected lines, broader market continued with its relative outperformance wherein Nifty midcap index extended its record setting spree over third consecutive session. However, small caps as it is still 14% away from its life-time highs. Hence, we expect broader market to continue with its relative outperformance along with further catch up activity to be seen in small cap space

* Structurally, the closure of Friday's negative gap (15065-14919) confirms that the higher base is in place at 14500 which we do not expect index to breach in the near term as it is confluence of:

* a) Since May 2020, the index has not sustained below its 50 days EMA. Currently, the 50 days EMA is placed at 14462

* b) The 50% retracement of February rally (13597-15432), at 14514

* c) Time wise, secondary correction has not lasted for more than a week, since May 2020

* d) Last week’s panic low is placed at 14468 In the coming session, the index is opening on a negative note on back of weak global cues. However, we expect the index to sustain above Wednesday low (14995) and trade in a range of 15000-15150 amid elevated volatility owing to weekly derivative expiry session. Hence, suggest to create long position in dips towards 15000-15030 for target of 15110

 

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Swastika Investmart Ltd

Published on 4/03/2021 12:24:33 PM

Banknifty (Spot):

Banknifty also started to show strength where 35750-35500 will be an immediate and strong demand zone. Banknifty may witness pullback from this area after a gap down opening where 36000-36100 will act as an intraday resistance zone while if it trades below the 35500 mark then we can expect further weakness towards 35000.

 

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Swastika Investmart Ltd

Published on 4/03/2021 12:24:14 PM

Nifty (Spot):

Nifty is showing a strong bullish momentum but global cues are weak and SGX Nifty is suggesting a big gap down opening where 15075-15000 will be a strong support area. Nifty may witness pullback from this area after a gap down opening where 15125-15175 will act as an intraday resistance zone while if Nifty trades below the 15000 mark then we can expect further weakness in the market towards the 14800-14750 zone.

 

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Jainam Share Consultants Pvt Ltd

Published on 4/03/2021 12:22:51 PM

Nifty

Nifty opened with an upward gap and remained in positive terrain throughout the day. Nifty closed at 15246 with a gain of 327 points. On the daily chart the index has formed a long Bullish candle forming higher High-Low formation indicating positive bias. The chart pattern suggests that if Nifty crosses and sustains above 15280 level it would witness buying which would lead the index towards 15350-15420 levels. Important Supports for the day is around 15000 However if index sustains below 15000 then it may witness profit booking which would take the index towards 14760-14368 levels.

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SEBI Registration No.: INZ000198735, Research Analyst: INH000006448, PMS: INP000006785

Axis Securities

Published on 4/03/2021 12:07:08 PM

HIGHLIGHTS:

Nifty futures closed at 15299 on a positive note with 0.96% increase in open interest indicating Long Build Up. Nifty Futures closed at a premium of 53 points compared to previous day premium of 39 points. BankNifty closed at 36492 on a positive note with 5.63% decrease in open interest indicating Short Covering.

BankNifty Futures closed at a premium of 124 points compared to the previous day premium of 35 points. FII's were Buyers in Index Futures to the tune of 1372 crores and were Buyers in Index Options to the tune of 2043 crores, Buyers in the Stock Futures to the tune of 800 crores. Net Buyers in derivative segment to the tune of 4435 crores. India VIX index is at 22.09 v/s 23.60.Nifty ATM call option IV is currently 19.57 whereas Nifty ATM put option IV is quoting at 22.16

 

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Axis Securities

Published on 4/03/2021 12:05:52 PM

Nifty

* The high Open Interest concentration on Call side is seen at 15,300 strike followed by 15,500 which may act as immediate resistance.

* The high Open Interest concentration on Put side is seen at 15,100 strike followed by 15,000 which may act as immediate support.

* Total Premium of A-T-M option is at Rs. 134 and probable trading range indicated for the day could be 15,000 to 15,400.

 

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