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Nifty : 16952

Technical Outlook

• The index pared initial gains and slowly edged lower as the day progressed. As a result, daily price action formed a small bear candle confined within Friday’s trading range (17109-16917), indicating extended breather amid stock specific action ahead of monthly expiry.

• The lack of follow through strength signifies prolonged consolidation. Going ahead, holding September 2022 low of 16747 would keep pullback option open towards upper band of consolidation placed at 17200. Subsequently, a decisive close above 17200 would be necessary to revive upward momentum and fuel the acceleration in ongoing pullback rally towards 200 days EMA placed at 17500. Thus, 17200 would be the key level to watch as it is confluence of last week’s high 17207 coincided with 20 days EMA.

• We believe, index is undergoing time-wise correction while absorbing host of negative news globally, after approaching lower band of four months falling channel amid oversold conditions (as weekly stochastic is placed at 15). Thus, traders should refrain from creating aggressive short positions, instead look for accumulating quality large caps in a staggered manner as it is a good time to construct portfolio from medium term perspective. Key monitorable for the coming expiry week are:

• A) Going head, cool off in the India VIX (which gauge the market sentiment) below 14 would open the door for pullback in the market as it has negative correlation with index • B) Brent crude prices and US dollar index continue in well-defined down trend, which remain supportive to equities

• C) Empirically, episodes of such high volatility globally and domestically has been painful to deal with in short term but always resulted in a durable bottom formation over medium term once anxiety surrounding events settles down. markets has tendency to bottom out amid bad news and Investing in such times of high volatility has always been rewarding • Index has managed to hold the key support of 16800 despite elevated global volatility which would continue to act as key support as it is confluence of:

• a) September 2022 low is placed at 16747

• b) 61.8% retracement of CY22 rally 15183-18887, placed at 16600

In the coming session, index is likely to open on a flat note tracking mixed global cues. We expect, stock specific action to prevail while sustaining above past three sessions low of 16900. Hence, use intraday dip towards 16925- 16957 to create intraday long positions for target of 17043 with a stoploss of 16887

Nifty Bank: 39567

Technical Outlook

• The daily price action formed a high wave candle which remained contained inside previous session price range signalling continuation of the consolidation ahead of the Monthly F&O expiry on Wednesday

• Index in the last two weeks is seen consolidating in the broad range of 40200 -38600 . We expect the index to extend the current consolidation in the coming truncated week and only a sustained move out of the range will signal further directional bias

• Structurally, ongoing corrective phase has already consumed 15 weeks to retrace 80 % gains of preceding 10 weeks rally of October –December (37387 -44151 ) . A slower pace of retracement signifies corrective nature of current decline

• The index has key support at 38200 -38600 levels being the confluence of (a) rising 52 -week ema and (b) 80 % retracement of June -December 2022 up move (37387 - 44151 )

• The weekly stochastic remain in downtrend and is currently placed at a reading of 30 signalling continuation of the corrective consolidation in the coming sessions

In the coming session, the index is likely to open on a flat to positive note amid mixed global equity cues . Index is expected to consolidate with high volatility amid monthly expiry while holding above 39200 levels . Hence use intraday dips towards 39280 -39360 for creating long position for the target 39590 , maintain a stoploss of 39170

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