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Calm end to turbulent series, large whipsaws seen

Post heavy selloff in first half of the series sharp comeback from lows seen on Nifty from 16400 to back above 17,200 levels, Nifty/BankNifty finished series with losses of 1.9/6.2% each. Highlights for the Dec series were a) FII’s continue to dump heavy in cash markets b) BankNifty down ~20% from 3months highs while Nifty IT at life high levels c) India VIX ended near 16 mark as traders awaits earnings for next directional cues d) BankNifty down more than 5% on back to back series to remain volatile. 

Rollovers for Nifty/Bank‐Nifty stood at 78% (1.04cr shrs)/84% (24lakh shrs) vs 83% (1.09cr shrs)/84% (23.7lakh shrs) previous month, roll cost stood near 50 points for Nifty, Market wide rolls stood at 91%vs 94% previous month.

FII’s derivative stats indicates long short index futures ratio at 1.94x for Jan series vs 3 months avg. of 1.58x levels, while Index futures long roll stood at 99% vs 3 months avg. of 96%. On options front, Max. call/put OI on Nifty for Jan monthly series at 17.5k calls (OI 1.77mn) and 17k put (OI ~2.9mn) shares. Outlook, options vol’s hinting for comparatively lower trading band +‐600 points from 17200 ATM mark, we expect 17600 to 16700 as trading range for Nifty, sector churning is key in range setup as IT stocks showing relative strength and Banking continue to drag

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