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Sensex (56747) / Nifty (16912)

In the midst of the mixed global cues, our markets started the week on a flat note. After the initial volatility, Nifty managed to find a clear direction; but unfortunately it was southwards. As the day progressed, the selling aggrandized across the broader market to break all intraday supports one after another. Eventually, bulls surrendered the psychological level of 17000 convincingly to mark lowest daily close in last three months.

On Friday, our markets precisely reversed after nearing the sturdy wall of 17500 – 17600. Looking at the firm Dow Futures early in the morning, it appeared as if we are gearing up for some bounce towards 17300; but it did not happen this way. Market continued to respect the recent downward trend and a result, we witnessed yet another bout of sharp selloff across the board. Now as we had alluded to in the recent commentary, last week’s low around 16800 is to be challenged soon and we are not far away from this now. It would be interesting to see how market behaves going forward. Whether bears have further legs to break this support or the bulls have enough strength to defend it. If we compromise this level of 16800 in the coming session, one should get prepared for an extended fall towards 16600 – 16400 in coming sessions

On the flipside, 17000 followed by 17100 are to be seen as immediate supports. The banking index plays a vital role here because its back to its ‘200-SMA’ and hence, one needs to keep a close on it in the forthcoming session.

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty Bank Outlook - (35736)

After witnessing swings on both sides of the trend in the first hour, the Bank Nifty chose the path headed downside for the remaining part of the session. Bank Nifty ended with a cut of 1.27% at 35736.

Last week, we witnessed a bounce back when the bank index approached the key support of 200DMA but this bounce was short lived as we are back to this crucial support. Going ahead it would be crucial to see how the bank index reacts around this key support placed in the 35500 – 35300 range especially ahead of the key RBI policy. Volatility is likely to be on the higher side hence traders should refrain from aggressive bets and they need to be very selective. On the flip side, if the bulls manage to defend this key level then the levels to watch on the upside would be 36300 – 36500. The overall trend remains weak and sell on rise as long the bank index stays below the 37000 levels.

Nifty Bank Daily Chart

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