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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -1.56% at 58579 as investors began to shift their focus from the banking crisis to the next Fed's action. Existing home sales in the US which include completed transactions of single-family homes, town homes, condominiums and co-ops jumped 14.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.58 million in February 2023, snapping a 12-month slide and representing the largest monthly percentage increase since July 2020. Markets were expecting a smaller 5 percent rebound. Gold found support recently from a global banking crisis that started with the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in the US, then followed by the forced takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS in Europe. Switzerland's exports of gold to China and India rebounded in February as bullion prices fell, Swiss customs data showed. It exported 58 tonnes of gold worth 3.2 billion Swiss francs ($3.5 billion) to mainland China in February, up from 26.1 tonnes in January and the most since December. It sent 25.6 tonnes of gold to India, up from 3.2 tonnes in January and the most since September. Swiss exports of gold to Turkey dipped in February, having risen to unprecedented levels in January amid rampant inflation in the country. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -6.98% to settle at 7960 while prices are down -927 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 58173 and below same could see a test of 57768 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 59344, a move above could see prices testing 60110.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 57768-60110.
* Gold fell as focus shifting from the banking crisis to the Fed's action.
* US existing home sales jumped 14.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.58 million in February 2023
* The Fed offered daily currency swaps to BoC, BoE, BoJ, ECB, and SNB in a bid to boost dollar liquidity.

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.64% at 68394 on profit booking as caution prevailed ahead of the Fed's interest-rate decision. U.S. Treasury yields climbed as fears of contagion in the banking sector subsided after the rescue of Credit Suisse by UBS. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that the government is ready to provide further guarantees of deposits if the banking crisis worsens. Construction output in the Euro Area increased 0.9 percent from a year earlier in January 2023, recovering from a downwardly revised 0.6 percent fall in the previous month. Building construction activity rebounded 1.4 percent from a 0.5 percent decline in December, while civil engineering work decreased 1.9 percent (vs -2 percent). The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for the Euro Area slipped by 19.7 points to 10 in March 2023, from a one-year high of 29.7 in the prior month and below market forecasts of 16. This was the first drop in sentiment after five consecutive months of increases, amid heightened uncertainty about the economic outlook caused by the recent turmoil in the financial system. Existing home sales in the US jumped 14.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.58 million in February 2023, snapping a 12-month slide and representing the largest monthly percentage increase since July 2020. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.5% to settle at 12523 while prices are down -444 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 67928 and below same could see a test of 67461 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 69061, a move above could see prices testing 69727.

Trading Ideas:
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* Silver trading range for the day is 67461-69727.
* Silver dropped on profit booking as U.S. Treasury yields climbed
* U.S. Treasury yields climbed as fears of contagion in the banking sector subsided after the rescue of Credit Suisse by UBS.
* Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that the government is ready to provide further guarantees of deposits if the banking crisis worsens.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 4.39% at 5775 as the rescue of Credit Suisse eased worries about global banking sector risks that could hit economic growth and reduce fuel demand. OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais said that OPEC deal has contributed in addressing challenges and difficulties that global markets face, Iraq's Oil Ministry quoted him as saying. Al Ghais, added OPEC's most important target is to achieve stability and balance between supply and demand. Iraq's Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani and OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais stressed the need to coordinate among oil-exporting nations to ensure prices do not fluctuate and impact both exporter and consumer countries, the Iraqi government said in a statement. Iraqi oil minister Hayan Abdel-Ghani said his country is committed to maintaining its 220,000 barrel per day (bpd) oil output in line with OPEC+ rates. "We obliged some oil companies operating in the south to cut production to come in line with OPEC+'s agreed rates," he added. Goldman Sach has downgraded its 12-month price outlook for Brent oil from $100 a barrel to $94, as the banking turmoil and the potential for recession outweigh a surge in demand from China. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -25.54% to settle at 10217 while prices are up 243 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5630 and below same could see a test of 5486 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5854, a move above could see prices testing 5934

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Trading Ideas:
*Crude oil trading range for the day is 5486-5934.
* Crude oil gains as banking fears ease for now
* OPEC Sec – Gen: OPEC deal contributed in addressing market challenges
* Iraq, OPEC stress need to coordinate to stabilise prices

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 0.7% at 187.2 dragged by lower heating demand and less cold weather while gas output is rising. Average US gas demand, including exports, is expected to fall to 108.3 bcfd next week from 116.2 bcfd this week due to milder weather. On the other hand, average gas output in the US Lower 48 states grew to 98.7 bcfd this month, up from 98.2 bcfd in the previous period, and approaching a record of 99.9 bcfd in November 2022. Meanwhile, gas flows to LNG export plants have been on track to hit record highs after Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas became operational again. Natural gas prices have declined 45% since the beginning of the year and are now almost 80% down from their August peak of $10, as warmer temperatures kept heating demand subdued this winter and stockpiles well above average levels. Strong peaks in the winter and summer drove U.S. natural gas consumption to an all-time high last year, averaging 88.5 Bcf/d, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The federal agency said natural gas consumption peaked last year in January and July. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -11.45% to settle at 30293 while prices are up 1.3 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 179.6 and below same could see a test of 172.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 192.1, a move above could see prices testing 197.1.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 172.1-197.1.
* Natural gas gained on short covering after prices dropped dragged by lower heating demand
* Average US gas demand, is expected to fall to 108.3 bcfd next week from 116.2 bcfd this week due to milder weather.
* Average gas output in the US Lower 48 states grew to 98.7 bcfd this month, up from 98.2 bcfd in the previous period

Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.74% at 763.95 amid tight supply, and hopes of strong demand. Meanwhile, investors continued to assess the risks instability in the global financial sector may pose to the real economy. Mining exports from major producer Peru sank nearly 20% annually in January due to the widespread protests that halted the activity, while inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to record lower levels. At the same time, demand expectations for top consumer China were underpinned by the People Bank of China's surprise cut in the reserve requirement ratio, the country's latest measure to spur higher economic activity and rebound from Covid lockdowns. China's unwrought copper imports in the first two months of 2023 fell 9.3% from a year earlier, customs data showed, as higher global prices curbed buying appetite. Arrivals of unwrought copper and products into China, the world's biggest consumer of the red metal, were 879,000 tonnes in January and February, down from 969,289 tonnes in the same period a year earlier, according to the General Administration of Customs. A surge in COVID-19 cases across the country after Beijing abruptly exited its zero-COVID policy in early December disrupted industrial activity, dampening copper demand. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -18.49% to settle at 2059 while prices are up 5.6 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 757.6 and below same could see a test of 751.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 767.9, a move above could see prices testing 771.9.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 751.3-771.9.
* Copper gains amid tight supply, and hopes of strong demand.
* China's unwrought copper imports in the first two months of 2023 fell 9.3% from a year earlier
* Meanwhile, investors continued to assess the risks instability in the global financial sector may pose to the real economy.

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.78% at 254.25 as Chinese spot treatment charges for zinc concentrate slipped from their highest in more than two years in March and will likely fall further on high smelter utilisation rates and a demand recovery in its biggest consuming market. SHFE inventories of refined zinc surged 582% from December 2022 to 123,894 tonnes by March 10, exchange data showed, correlating with the ramp-up at smelters. But as demand for refined metal picked up, SHFE stocks fell 8.4% last week, their biggest weekly decline since Dec. 23. China's concentrate market was over-supplied partly due to smelters shutting down in Europe. The country imported 4.12 million tonnes of zinc concentrate last year, up 13% year-on-year. In the first two months of 2023, imports surged 30% year-on-year to 902,000 tonnes. The global zinc market deficit fell to 18,300 tonnes in January from a revised deficit of 80,300 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Previously, the ILZSG had reported a deficit of 100,500 tonnes in December. The deficit of 18,300 tonnes in January compares with a surplus of 15,000 tonnes in the same month last year, ILZSG data showed. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.24% to settle at 2508 while prices are down -2 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 252.4 and below same could see a test of 250.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 256.8, a move above could see prices testing 259.3.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 250.5-259.3.
* Zinc dropped as China's zinc treatment charges fall from multi – year high
* SHFE inventories of refined zinc surged 582% from December 2022 to 123,894 tonnes by March 10
* Global zinc market deficit slides to 18,300 T in January – ILZSG

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.74% at 202.35 as Global primary aluminium output rose 2.7% year on year in February to 5.273 million tonnes. China exported 242,276 tonnes of alumina to Russia in the first two months of 2023, surging from the 698 tonnes shipped there a year ago. China's aluminium imports in the first two months of 2023 rose 11.3% from a year earlier, official data showed, as buyers anticipated improving demand for the metal following the country's reopening. Arrivals of unwrought aluminium and products including primary metal and unwrought, alloyed aluminium totalled 374,321 tonnes in January and February combined, according to the General Administration of Customs. That compares with 336,007 tonnes in the corresponding period last year. China dropped its strict COVID-19 restrictions late last year, buoying hopes of an economic recovery and better demand for industrial metals. China kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged for the seventh straight month in March, as expected, after the central bank surprised markets last week by moving to lower the amount of cash banks must set aside as reserves. Market watchers widely believe the need for more imminent monetary easing was reduced after the People's Bank of China (PBOC) said on March 17 it would cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR). Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -4.16% to settle at 2998 while prices are down -1.5 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 201.5 and below same could see a test of 200.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 203.6, a move above could see prices testing 204.9.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 200.7-204.9.
* Aluminum dropped as Global output rises 2.7% y/y to 5.27 mln T in February
* China exported 242,276 tonnes of alumina to Russia in the first two months of 2023
* China Jan – Feb aluminium imports rose 11.3% on year

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.43% at 989.3 on profit booking after seen supported on improving export demand especially from China. Mentha exports during Apr-Jan 2023, dropped by 13.65 percent to 2,016.77 tonnes as compared to 2,335.63 tonnes exported during Apr-Jan 2022. In January 2023 around 233.21 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 298.38 tonnes in December 2022 showing a drop of 21.84%. In January 2023 around 233.21 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 171.07 tonnes in January 2022 showing a rise of 36.32%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -1.3 Rupees to end at 1174.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -10.92% to settle at 457 while prices are down -4.3 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 983.2 and below same could see a test of 977 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 995.5, a move above could see prices testing 1001.6.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 977-1001.6.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -1.3 Rupees to end at 1174.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil dropped on profit booking after seen supported on improving export demand especially from China.
* Mentha exports during Apr-Jan 2023, dropped by 13.65 percent to 2,016.77 tonnes
* In January 2023 around 233.21 tonnes was exported against 298.38 tonnes in December 2022 showing a drop of 21.84%.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 1.3% at 6882 on short covering after prices dropped as turmeric harvesting has started in the key growing regions and farmers and stockists are releasing their stocks, in the fear of further decline in prices. In AP (Nizamabad) Turmeric market around 5,000-7,000 bags are arriving on an average daily basis. In the Erode spot market 400-600 bags are reported on a daily basis, In the Sangli district it is around 3500-7000 bags. Coupled with weak demand in the export and domestic market prices are trading at lower levels (in the current season). Turmeric exports during Apr-Jan 2023, rose by 7.76 percent at 1,36,492.59 tonnes as compared to 1,26,659.01 tonnes exported during Apr-Jan 2022. In January 2023 around 12,484.25 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,039.57 tonnes in December 2022 showing a rise of 3.69%. In January 2023 around 12,484.25 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 10,558.26 tonnes in January 2022 showing a rise of 18.24%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6810.3 Rupees gained 23.75 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.47% to settle at 11835 while prices are up 88 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6808 and below same could see a test of 6734 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6922, a move above could see prices testing 6962.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6734-6962.
* Turmeric gained on short covering after prices dropped as turmeric harvesting has started in key growing regions
* Farmers and stockists are releasing their stocks, in the fear of further decline in prices
* The crop is good this season despite some projection of a lower crop.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6810.3 Rupees gained 23.75 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 1.46% at 33795 as demand has improved in the export and domestic market due to the Ramadan season ahead. Buyers get active in most of the markets with the commencement of new crop arrivals. Strong supply pressures are reported in the market at 7,000 bags, higher by 1,000 bags as farmers and stockiests are anticipating corrections in prices with the improved crop conditions due to favourable weather conditions in key producing states. Some damage has been reported in Gujarat, Banaskantha region due to very low temperature and frost impact. However, overall crop condition is quite good in Gujarat area as compared to Rajasthan key growing regions. Jeera exports during Apr-Jan 2023, dropped by 17.85 percent at 1,54,782.65 tonnes as compared to 1,88,428.54 tonnes exported during Apr-Jan 2022. In January 2023 around 8,716.71 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 12,798.15 tonnes in December 2022 showing a drop of 31.89%. In January 2023 around 8,716.71 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 14,725.40 tonnes in January 2022 showing a drop of 40.80%. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -234.5 Rupees to end at 32833 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -4.2% to settle at 5754 while prices are up 485 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 33090 and below same could see a test of 32385 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 34220, a move above could see prices testing 34645.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 32385-34645.
* Jeera prices rose as export demand has improved due to the Ramadan season ahead
* Global production will be higher at 4.35 lt against 4.08 lt.
* But net supplies from India are projected 7 per cent lower.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -234.5 Rupees to end at 32833 Rupees per 100 kg.

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