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Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd

Published on 25/02/2021 2:40:55 PM

NIFTY : 14982

Nifty index opened above 14700 zones and continued its momentum on a positive note for most part of the session. However a trading halt was witnessed due to unforeseen circumstances at NSE exchange but that couldn't stop the bull's grip. Index picked up sharply in the second part of the session and managed to hit psychological 15000 mark. It closed the day with gains of around 275 points. It formed a strong Bullish candle on daily scale and negated its formation of lower highs of the last five trading sessions. Now, it has to continue to hold above 14900 zones to extend its move towards 15150 then 15250 zones while on the downside immediate support exists at 14850 and 14700 levels.

Expiry day point of view: Now till it remains above 14900 zones it could extend its move towards 15150 then 15250 zones. Option traders are suggested to be with positive bias till it holds below 14900 zones. One can Buy nearby Call like 15000, 15050 and Bull Call Ladder Spread

Trading Range : Expected wider trading range : 14900 to 15200 zones. Option Writing : Aggressive Option writers can sell 15200 Call and 14850 Put with double the SL

Weekly Change : Nifty index is up by 8.43% in this series at 14982 on expiry to expiry basis as Jan series settled at 13817. Nifty VWAP of this series is near to 14900 and Index is trading 80 points above from VWAP levels while it up by 150 points from its weekly VWAP of 14830 levels which suggests overall bullish bias.

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Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd

Published on 25/02/2021 2:40:41 PM

BANKNIFTY : 36452

Bank Nifty opened gap up and witnessed quick buying and positive action in all the banking stocks. It made intraday high of 36567 and ended the day with massive gains of more than 1300 points. It formed a strong Bullish candle on daily scale and negated its formation of lower highs - lower lows of the last five sessions. Now it has to continue to hold above 36000 zones to witness an up move towards 37000 and 37250 zones while on the downside support exists at 36000 and 35700 zones

Expiry day point of view: Overall trend is likely to remain volatile with bullish bias Now till it holds above 36000 zones bounce could be seen towards 37000 then 37250 zones. Option traders are suggested to trade with nearby 36600, 36700 Call and Bull Call Spread.

Trading Range: Expected wider trading range : 36000 to 37000/37250 zones Option Writing : Aggressive Option writers can sell 37800 Call and sell 35200 Put with strict double SL Weekly & Monthly Change : Bank Nifty is up by 20.07% in this series at 36452 on expiry to expiry basis as Jan 2020 series settled at 30358. Bank Nifty is trading 1080 points higher from its Series VWAP of 35370 and 800 points higher from its Weekly VWAP of 35650 levels which suggests bullish bias and more scope for short covering.

 

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Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd

Published on 11/02/2021 1:56:19 PM

NIFTY : 15106

Nifty index opened flattish and took a pause in the positive momentum after a streak of making record highs from the last seven consecutive sessions. The index broke its previous day's low and took a breather to close the day on a flat to negative note. It formed a Doji candle on daily scale with a long lower shadow indicating dips were being bought in the market. Now, Nifty has to hold above 15000 to continue its bullish momentum towards 15200 and 15250 zones while on the downside major support can be seen around 14850 and 14750 zones. Option Weekly Activity Expiry Express (E2) (A Comprehensive Weekly Expiry Note)

Expiry day point of view: Overall trend is bullish with buy on small declines strategy. Option traders are suggested to be with positive to range bound bias for an up move towards 15200 zones. Buy nearby 15050 and 15100 Call or Bull Call Ladder Spread.

Trading Range : Expected wider trading range : 14950 to 15250 zones

Option Writing : Aggressive Option writers can sell 15300 Call and 14700 Put with strict double stop loss

Weekly Change : Nifty index is up by 1.22% at 15106 on a weekly basis. Nifty VWAP of the week is near to 15133 levels and it is trading 27 points lower to the same indicates overall range bound bias with limited upside.

 

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Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd

Published on 11/02/2021 1:55:51 PM

BANK NIFTY : 35783

Bank Nifty opened flattish and moved sideways during the day. The banking stocks are now at a halt and as a result the rate sensitive index sunk towards key support of 35500 levels. It settled the day with losses of around 270 points. It formed a Bearish candle on daily scale with a long lower wick. The index has got in range between 35500 to 36600 zones from past few sessions. Now it has to hold above 35500 zones to witness a move towards 36000 and 36500 zones while on the downside support seen at 35500 and 35250 zones

Expiry day point of view: Overall trend is buy on decline strategy till it holds above 35400-35500 zones Bank Nifty a hold of 35500 zones could see an up move towards 36000 then 36250 zones. Option traders are suggested to trade with nearby Call like 35700. 35800 strikes or Bull Call spread

Trading Range: Expected immediate trading range : 35250 to 36250 zones

Option Writing : Option writers are suggested to write OTM 36700/36800 Call and 34900/ 35000 Put with strict stop loss

Weekly Change : Bank Nifty is marginally up by 0.36% at 35783 on a weekly basis. Bank Nifty VWAP of the week is near to 36083 levels and it is trading 300 points lower to the same indicates range bound bias with buying on declines and limited upside.

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Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd

Published on 4/02/2021 3:33:00 PM

NIFTY : 14789

Nifty index opened gap up and continued its positive streak for the third consecutive session and touched yet another life time high of 14868 during the day. The second half of the session, saw some consolidation and the index finally closed with gains of around 140 points. It formed a Bullish candle on daily scale and continues its higher highs - higher lows formation of the last three sessions. Now, Nifty has to continue to hold above 14600 zones to continue its bullish momentum towards 14850 and then 15000 zones while support can be seen around 14500 and then 14400 zones.

Expiry day point of view: Overall trend is bullish with buy on any small declines strategy. Option traders are suggested to be with positive bias for an up move towards 14850-14900 zones. Buy nearby 14750 and 14800 Call or Bull Call Ladder Spread.

Trading Range : Expected wider trading range : 14650 to 14900 zones

Option Writing : Aggressive Option writers can sell 15000 and 14500 Put with strict double stop loss

Weekly Change : Nifty index is up by 8.47% at 14790 on a weekly basis. Nifty VWAP of the week is near to 14550 levels and it is trading 250 points higher to the same indicates overall bullish bias.

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Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd

Published on 4/02/2021 3:32:42 PM

BANK NIFTY : 34758

Bank Nifty opened gap up and continued its northward journey to touch 34908 levels. Banking stocks soared high and are holding the rate sensitive index at higher zones. It closed with gains of around 500 points and formed a Bullish candle on daily scale with longer lower shadow indicating bulls are in full form. It is forming higher top - higher bottom from the last four sessions. Now it has to hold 34500 zones to witness an up move towards 35000 and 35500 zone, while on the downside support exists at 34000 and then 33500 zones.

Expiry day point of view: Overall trend is buy on decline strategy till it holds above 34500 zones Bank Nifty a hold above 34500 zones could see an up move towards 35000 then 35500 zones. Option traders are suggested to trade with nearby Call like 34800 and 34900 strikes or Bull Call spread

Trading Range: Expected immediate trading range : 34250 to 35000-35200 zones

Option Writing : Option writers are suggested to write OTM 35500 Call and 33500 Put with strict stop loss

Weekly Change : Bank Nifty is up by 13.72% at 34758 on a weekly basis. Bank Nifty VWAP of the week is near to 33850 levels and it is trading 900 points higher to the same indicates bullish bias.

 

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Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd

Published on 29/01/2021 5:55:25 PM

NIFTY : Bull Call Ladder Spread

To play a small bounce with less premium cost in weekly series

Buy 14000 Call @ 230 Sell 14300 Call @ 130

Sell 14800 Call @ 35 Premium paid : 65

Max risk scenario 1 : 65 (Rs. 4875/-)

Max risk scenario 2 : Unlimited above 15035 (Less likely)

Max reward : 235 (Rs. 17625/-)

Expiry date: 11th Feb, Weekly Expiry 2021

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Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd

Published on 29/01/2021 5:55:07 PM

NIFTY : BEAR PUT SPREAD

For Hedging till 13200 zones for entire Feb month

Buy 1 lot of 13700 Put @ 300

Sell 1 lot of 13200 put @ 140

Premium paid : 160

Max Risk : 160 (Rs. 12000/-)

Max Reward : 340 (Rs. 25500/-)

Expiry date: 25th Feb,Monthly Expiry 2021

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Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd

Published on 29/01/2021 5:26:51 PM

Traders lightened their positions ahead of Mega Event - Union Budget 2021

* Market started the new calendar year 2021 on a bullish note. Nifty sustained above 14000 mark from initial sessions of January series and continued its bullish momentum towards 14750 levels. Sensex also touched new milestone of 50000 mark in January. However, the rally of first three weeks got engulfed with sharp sell-off in last five sessions.

* Nifty fell by more than 1000 points from its all-time high of 14753 and concluded the January series a tad above 13800 levels, which loss of 1.17 on expiry-to-expiry basis. January series started with long positions in the system and Bulls kept on adding fresh longs in first fortnight of the series. However, most of these longs are out of system as open interest of Nifty has decreased by 19.76% on month-on-month basis.

* Rollover in Nifty stood at 77.28%, which is in line with its quarterly average of 77.36%. Market breadth has also turned in favour of declining counter and structure of many large-caps got dampened in recent fall. Due to sharp sell-off in last few sessions, more than 40% of the NSE 500 stocks fell below their respective 50 Days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) while 15% of the NSE 500 stocks moved below 200 DEMA. On sectoral indices front, Auto, IT and Infra sector witnessed buying interest in January. While Pvt Banking, Financial Services, Pharma, Metal indices were major underperformers.

* India VIX moved up by 15.12% from 21.10 to 24.29 levels. Surge in volatility due to selling pressure and ahead of the Budget 2021, could keep volatile swing with limited upside in the market. FIIs exited some of their long positions in index futures in January series and as a result, their ‘Long Short Ratio’ has come down from 75.64% to 61.87% on series-on-series basis.

* On option front, Maximum Put OI is at 14000 followed by 13000 strike while maximum Call OI is at 14500 followed by 15000 strike. Option data suggests a wider trading range in between 13500 to 14500 zones ahead of Budget event.At current juncture, bulls are losing their grip and market slipped into a corrective phase. Currently, Nifty is light on positions and further build-up in coming days will decide directional move for market.

* The undertone of the market has turned bearish for short -term and traders are advised to use caution ahead of the Budget 2021 event and stay light on positions. As far as levels are concern, support for Nifty is placed at 13500 and below that 13200 levels. On the flipside, resistance can be seen at 14500 then 14700 zones.

* The Bank Nifty relatively underperformed the benchmark indices as it fell by around 3% in January series. The banking index crossed its previous swing high and made a new all-time high of 32842 levels; but follow-up buying was missing and index nosedived by more than 2500 points in last five trading sessions. We witnessed good amount of short build-up in recent sell-off and most of these positions got rolled to February series as open interest has increased by 21.82% on M-oM basis. However, rollover in BankNifty stood at 74.55%, which is lower than its quarterly average of 77.02%. At current juncture, some shorts are there in the system and traders should remain cautious in market. Going forward, crucial support for banking index is placed at 29000 and 27700 zone. On the flipside, immediate resistance can be seen around 31600 and then 32800 zone.

* Since most of the stocks from derivatives space ended in negative territory in January, very few stocks witnessed noticeable long build-up. Some stocks which had long rollovers are Havells, Bajaj Auto, IDFC First Bank, MRF, Apollo Tyre, PVR, Cummins, TVS Motors, etc. While stocks like Bandhan Bank, Biocon, Coforge, ICICIGI, RBL Bank, Motherson Sumi, Divis Lab, Godrej Prop, NTPC, etc had short rollover.

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Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd

Published on 28/01/2021 3:03:18 PM

NIFTY : 13967

Nifty index opened gap down and selling pressure dragged the index below psychological 14000 zones. Index slipped and touched intraday low of 13929 levels and closed with losses of around 270 points. It continues its formation of lower top - lower bottom from the last three sessions. It formed a Bearish belt hold sort of candle indicating bears had complete control over the market. Index may continue to remain highly volatile ahead of Monthly expiry and Union Budget 2021. Now, till it remains below 14200 zones, bounce could be sold and weakness may be seen towards 13800 levels while on the upside key hurdle exists at 14200 and 14350 levels

Expiry day point of view: Now till it remains below 14200 zones further weakness could be seen towards 13800 zones Option traders are suggested to be with negative bias till it holds below 14100/14200 levels. One can Buy nearby Put like 13950, 13900 and Bear Put Spread

Trading Range : Expected wider trading range : 13800 to 14100-14200 zones

Option Writing : Aggressive Option writers can sell 14200 Call and avoid Put selling due to higher VIX levels ahead of

Budget Weekly & Monthly Change : Nifty index is marginally down by 0.10% in this series at 13967 on expiry to expiry basis as Dec series settled at 13981. Nifty VWAP of this series is near to 14400 and Index is trading 425 points down from VWAP levels while it down by 270 points from its weekly VWAP of 14235 levels which suggests bearish bias.

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