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Sensex (52976) / Nifty (15856)

The truncated week kick started with a surprising gap down on Monday owing to some nervousness across the globe. As the day progressed, the selloff augmented to close below the 15800 mark. In fact there was a follow through seen to it on the subsequent day to test sub-15600 levels. Fortunately the global peers had a good relief move thereafter which resulted in a v-shaped recovery in our markets in the latter half. Eventually, Nifty ended the action packed week with negligible losses.

It’s been more than a month now; the Nifty is trapped in a range of merely 500 points. This certainly is a slender range considering the fact we are trading at much elevated levels. For the most part of June, we were confined to domestic triggers only; but as we stepped into the July month, the global factors started to influence our markets to a great extent. Unfortunately, global peers experiences some sell off when Nifty is about to reach the milestone of 16000 and on the other hand, some relief comes when we are at crucial supports. Last week’s price action is exactly a replica of this. After undergoing some price correction for first couple of days, we witnessed a good relief rally to reclaim the important level of 15800 on a weekly closing basis.

This certainly bodes well for the bulls but considering the recent trend, we are still not out of the woods yet. So rather than preempting and getting caught on the wrong foot, we would wait for Nifty to surpass the sturdy wall of 16000. If this happens then the next immediate levels to watch out for would be 16200 – 16400. Although they may appear not so far levels from 16000, we would see good stock specific action in this period. Now as we reiterate, if Nifty has to reach and surpass the magical figure of 16000, the banking certainly plays a vital role here. It would be very important for the banking index to surpass the 36000 mark, if we have to see benchmark at new highs. Until then 35000 – 35500 are to be considered as intermediate hurdles. On the lower side, the cluster of supports for Nifty is placed at 15700 – 15550 – 15450 and for BANKNIFTY, 34200 – 33900 are to be seen as make or break levels. Any sustainable move below the lower end of this support zone would reverse the short term trend in the downward direction. Traders should keep a note of it and position accordingly.

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty Bank Outlook - (35034)

On Friday, Bank Nifty started on a flat note however after few minutes it witnessed a nosedive to not only slip towards Thursday's low but to test the levels of around the 34400 mark. This dip however got bought into as Bank Nifty gradually moved higher throughout the remaining part of the session to eventually end with gains of a percent reclaiming the 35000 mark. After forming a 'Homing Pigeon' bullish reversal candlestick pattern on Thursday, the bank nifty formed a bullish candle on Friday that can be taken as a confirmation candle. Now going with this pattern formation, 34200 - 33900 is key support and bank nifty can head higher with immediate resistance placed around 35350 - 35670 levels. Some of the heavyweight from this space showed outperformance on Friday and hence we recommend having stock-specific trades with proper exit setup.

Nifty Bank Daily Chart

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