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Below are Perspective on the GDP Numbers for Q3 FY-21 Mr. Nikhil Gupta, Economist - Institutional Equities, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd

“India's real GDP grew 0.4% YoY in 3QFY21, primarily because of downward revision (from 4.1% to 3.3%) in 3QFY20. Without base revision, there was a decline of 0.6% YoY in the quarter. The consensus was +0.5% and our forecast was -0.7%.

-- Investments were the primary driver (up 2.1% YoY vs. a fall of 28.2% in 1HFY21) of better GDP growth in 3QFY21, while consumption (down 2.2% YoY vs. a fall of 16.7% in 1HFY21) remained a laggard.

-- Nominal GDP grew strongly at 5.3% YoY last quarter, implying that GDP deflator was 4.8% YoY in 3QFY21.

-- Surprisingly, CSO expects a contraction of 1.1% YoY in 4QFY21, implying 8% fall in FY21. This is highly unlikely. We believe real GDP could grow 3.5% in the current quarter, leading to a decline of 6.7% in FY21”

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