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Rupee: Higher opening on card  - HDFC Securities

The cross-asset picture is a mixed one early on Tuesday with the dollar lower versus most G10 peers and the yuan, though USDJPY is up. Meanwhile, equities are mostly in the red, with Japan leading the way. Emerging-market currencies expected to open higher, bolstered by a weaker US dollar and as Treasuries fell.

Rupee expected to opening slightly higher following weaker dollar and government opening vaccination for all above 18 from May 01. The non deliverable one month forward USDINR last quoted at 75.14 8 paise lower from yesterday’s level.

On Monday, Indian rupee declined with a plunge in stocks as a surge in coronavirus cases to a record sparked concerns about the pace of economic recovery. Spot USDINR rose 0.7% to close at 74.88, reversing nearly all of Friday’s 0.8% drop, climbed as much as 0.9% intraday, highest since April 7.

Technically, spot USDINR is having resistance at 75.20 and support at 74.50.

China kept its benchmark lending rate for corporate and household loans steady for the 12th straight month at its April fixing on Tuesday, matching market expectations. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was kept at 3.85%. The five-year LPR remained at 4.65%.

Pound advanced Monday against the dollar for a sixth straight session as the UK’s service sector reopens amid a swift vaccine program and the reflation trade slows in the U.S. The pound breached its 50-day moving average in its biggest one-day intraday advance since Dec. 23, climbing to its highest in a month.

The European Central Bank monetary policy meeting is due on Thursday with internal divisions over the pace of bond buying, extended COVID-19 lockdowns and potential delays to the EU recovery fund forming the backdrop

USDINR

USDINR April futures formed inside bar with open low suggesting bulls still holding the game.

The pair has been trading well above long term moving averages.

Momentum oscillators and indicators are also indicating continuation of upward momentum.

The pair has support 74.34, high of 26 Feb. and resistance at 75.50 recent swing high.

USDINR April futures expected to consolidate in in the range of 74.50 to 75. We could see long unwinding in today’s trade as well ahead of holiday

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