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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.52% at 46593 weighed down by a jump in U.S. Treasury yields and a rebound in the dollar. U.S. producer prices increased more than expected in March, resulting in the largest annual gain in 9-1/2 years, fitting with expectations for higher inflation as the economy reopens. The U.S. Federal Reserve plans to keep its super-easy policy in place even as data shows the economy kicking into higher gear, with policymakers predicting that an expected increase in prices this year will fade on its own, and warning about the recent uptick in COVID-19 infections. "Cases are moving back up here, so I would just urge that people do get vaccinated and continue socially distancing," Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who has had his shots, said at an economic forum during virtual International Monetary Fund and World Bank meetings. "We don't want to get another outbreak; even if it might have less economic damage and kill fewer people, it'll slow down the recovery." Speaking at a separate event, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard said the Fed should not even discuss changes in monetary policy until it is clear the pandemic is over, tying future Fed discussions tightly to the success of the vaccination effort. The Fed has said it will keep buying $120 billion in bonds a month until it sees "substantial further progress" toward meeting the central bank's employment and inflation goals. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.02% to settled at 11834 while prices down -245 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 46309 and below same could see a test of 46025 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 46882, a move above could see prices testing 47171.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Gold trading range for the day is 46025-47171.

* Gold slipped weighed down by a jump in U.S. Treasury yields and a rebound in the dollar.

* U.S. producer prices increased more than expected in March, resulting in the largest annual gain in 9-1/2 year

* The U.S. Federal Reserve plans to keep its super-easy policy in place even as data shows the economy kicking into higher gear.

Silver      

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.77% at 66983 weighed down by a stronger U.S. dollar and rising bond yields. The strength in stock markets amid continued optimism about economic growth weighed as well on the metal. On the U.S. economic front, the Labor Department released a report showing producer prices jumped by much more than expected in the month of March. The Labor Department said its producer price index for final demand surged up by 1% in March after climbing by 0.5% in February. Data from China showed consumer prices rose 0.4% year-on-year in March in that country, exceeding expectations for an increase of 0.3%. China's National Buereo of Statistics also said that producer prices jumped an annual 4.4% in March - beating expectations for an increase of 3.5% and up sharply from the 1.7% gain a month earlier. Wholesale inventories in the US increased 0.6 percent from a month earlier in February of 2021, after a 1.4 percent rise in January and above a preliminary estimate of a 0.5 percent advance. It was the seventh consecutive month of gains in wholesale inventories. Nondurable goods stocks rose 1.1 percent (vs 1.7 percent in January) and durable goods inventories were up 0.3 percent (vs 1.3 percent in January). On a yearly basis, wholesale inventories advanced 2 percent in February. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.61% to settled at 9415 while prices down -518 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 66418 and below same could see a test of 65852 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 67503, a move above could see prices testing 68022.    

Trading Ideas:            

* Silver trading range for the day is 65852-68022.

* Silver settled lower weighed down by a stronger U.S. dollar and rising bond yields.

* The strength in stock markets amid continued optimism about economic growth weighed as well on the metal.

* The Labor Department, report showed US producer prices jumped by much more than expected in the month of March.

Crude oil    

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -0.09% at 4434 as investors weighed rising supplies from major producers and the impact on fuel demand from the COVID-19 pandemic. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, a group known as OPEC+ that includes Russia, agreed to gradually increase supplies by 2 million barrels per day between May and July. Concerns are surfacing that renewed lockdowns in parts of the world to curb rising COVID-19 cases and problems with vaccinations could alter the oil demand picture. The forecast for global oil demand outlook has shifted lower amid renewed lockdowns in parts of the world to curb rising Covid-19 cases and problems with vaccinations. Russia expects the fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic on the global consumption of oil and oil products may last until 2023-2024. World oil and liquid fuels production fell in 2020 to 94.25 million barrels per day (bpd) from 100.61 million bpd in 2019, amid the pandemic, which led to lockdowns, halting 80% of air traffic and a quarter of road traffic at its peak and denting fuel consumption. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries expects oil demand to grow by 5.6 million barrels per day this year under its base case scenario. Russian Deputy Energy Minister Alexander Novak has also projected similar growth. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -12.14% to settled at 4131 while prices down -4 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 4410 and below same could see a test of 4387 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4466, a move above could see prices testing 4499.    

Trading Ideas:            

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 4387-4499.

* Crude oil prices edged down as investors weighed rising supplies from major producers and the impact on fuel demand from the COVID-19 pandemic.

*  OPEC+ that includes Russia, agreed to gradually increase supplies by 2 million barrels per day between May and July.

* The forecast for global oil demand outlook has shifted lower amid renewed lockdowns in parts of the world to curb rising Covid-19 cases and problems with vaccinations.

Nat.Gas      

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 1.34% at 189.1 on forecasts for cooler weather and higher heating demand in mid- to late-April, the first time in seven weeks prices rose three straight days. Traders noted that while temperatures may be lower, they were expected to remain at near- to above-normal levels during that time and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports were expected to decline this month during routine plant and pipeline maintenance. Traders also noted that mild weather this week will likely cause utilities to boost injections into storage by so much that the total amount of gas in inventory will rise above the five-year (2016-2020) average for the first time since the February freeze. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has averaged 91.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April, up from 91.6 bcfd in March but still well below the record monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would hold near 89.3 bcfd this week and next before rising to 91.4 bcfd in two weeks as the weather cools. The demand forecast for next week was higher than Refinitiv projected on Thursday. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants, meanwhile, has averaged 11.1 bcfd so far in April, which would top March's monthly record of 10.8 bcfd. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.59% to settled at 13675 while prices up 2.5 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 187.5 and below same could see a test of 185.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 190.9, a move above could see prices testing 192.6.          

Trading Ideas:            

*  Natural gas trading range for the day is 185.8-192.6.

* Natural gas edged up on forecasts for cooler weather and higher heating demand in mid- to late-April, the first time in seven weeks prices rose three straight days.

* Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has averaged 91.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April

* Refinitiv estimated 174 heating degree days (HDDs) over the next two weeks in the lower 48 U.S. states.

Copper       

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.83% at 689.85 as strong Chinese inflation data raised fears that the world's biggest metals consumer will tighten monetary policy, though expected supply tightness kept prices on course for a weekly gain. Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 2.1% from a week earlier, the exchange said. CME raises comex copper futures (Hg) maintenance margins by 10.9% to $6,100 per contract from $5,500 for May. Treatment charges – to turn copper concentrate into metal – have crashed because of disruptions to mine supply globally. Smelters have had to accept lower treatment charges to ensure they have enough feedstock to keep their operations going. Copper stocks at 157,075 tonnes in LME registered warehouse have more than doubled since early March. However, cancelled warrants – metal earmarked for delivery – at 36% and large holdings of copper warrants are fuelling worry about availability on the LME market, which has created a premium for the cash over the three-month contract. U.S. President Joe Biden is expected to meet with lawmakers on his proposed infrastructure bill, which is expected to give a boost to demand for industrial metals, in the coming weeks. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -10.93% to settled at 2550 while prices down -5.75 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 687.1 and below same could see a test of 684.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 694, a move above could see prices testing 698.1. 

Trading Ideas:            

* Copper trading range for the day is 684.3-698.1.

* Copper dropped as strong Chinese inflation data raised fears that the world's biggest metals consumer will tighten monetary policy

* CME raises comex copper futures (Hg) maintenance margins by 10.9% to $6,100 per contract from $5,500 for May

* Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 2.1% from a week earlier, the exchange said

Zinc​​​​​​​      

Zinc yesterday settled down by -1.04% at 227.7 as pressure seen after the number of initial jobless claims in the US unexpectedly rose last week, highlighting the imbalance in the recovery of the labor market. Data showed that social inventories of refined zinc ingots across Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong and Hebei decreased 4,700 mt in the week ended April 9 to 228,800 mt. The stocks rose 400 mt from Tuesday April 6. Zinc prices decreased sharply before Qingming holiday, and downstream restocking demand increased when prices dropped, which led to an increase in the outbound quantity. After the holiday, the downstream still picked up the goods one after another, while with the rising zinc prices, the demand for downstream procurement was suppressed on week, and there were basically a small amount of purchases on rigid demand. China's refined zinc output stood at 496,900 mt in March, up 5.44% or 25,600 mt on the month and up 6.49% on the year. Output stood at 1.51 million mt in January-March, up 4.3% year on year. Smelters in the survey sample produced 75,100 mt of zinc alloy in March, up 5% from the previous month. Output of primary zinc stood at 390,000 mt in March, and secondary zinc output came in at 40,000 mt. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.56% to settled at 2197 while prices down -2.4 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 226.7 and below same could see a test of 225.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 229.3, a move above could see prices testing 230.7. 

Trading Ideas:            

* Zinc trading range for the day is 225.5-230.7.

*  Zinc prices dropped as pressure seen after the number of initial jobless claims in the US unexpectedly rose last week

* Data showed that social inventories of refined zinc ingots decreased 4,700 mt in the week ended April 9 to 228,800 mt.

*  China's refined zinc output stood at 496,900 mt in March, up 5.44% or 25,600 mt on the month and up 6.49% on the year.

Nickel​​​​​​​      

Nickel yesterday settled down by -1.43% at 1252.7 on profit booking after China’s refined nickel output dropped 4.62%, or 632 mt, from February to 13,000 mt in March. Operating rates across nickel smelters only stood at 59% in March, down 9.4% from a year ago. Prices in recent session seen supported by rising demand from the electric vehicle batteries sector, solid consumption from the stainless steel industry and supply chain disruption after top ore producer Indonesia banned nickel ore exports from 2020. Prices seen supported with the prospect of more economic stimulus and supportive fiscal measures in the United States. Support also seen falling US dollar and US Treasury yields, and the International Monetary Fund raised its 2021 growth outlook for the global economy to 6%. Prices also remained supported in the wake of improving economic prospects backed by the Biden government’s more than $2 trillion stimulus plan. China’s economic recovery continued in March, powered by a strong surge in the service sector, data showed. The Indonesian government has been trying to boost nickel processing in the country by offering incentives for miners who build smelters in efforts to create jobs and to increase the value added to their mineral reserve. The global nickel market surplus shrank to 8,400 tonnes in January from a revised surplus of 14,700 tonnes in the previous month, data from the International Nickel Study Group (INSG) showed. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.32% to settled at 1442 while prices down -18.2 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1242.6 and below same could see a test of 1232.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1267.3, a move above could see prices testing 1282. 

Trading Ideas:            

*  Nickel trading range for the day is 1232.6-1282.

*  Nickel prices dropped on profit booking after China’s refined nickel output dropped 4.62%, or 632 mt, from February to 13,000 mt in March.

* China’s economic recovery continued in March, powered by a strong surge in the service sector, data showed.

* Exports of nickel products from Indonesia, will surge to 900,000 tonnes in nickel content this year, from 600,000 tonnes in 2019.

Aluminium​​​​​​​      

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -1.86% at 182.25 after China’s primary aluminium output rose 10.2% year on year to 3.35 million mt in March (31 production days). Seven aluminium plants in Inner Mongolia conducted maintenance or reduced output in March due to local energy consumption restrictions, involving about 310,000 mt of annual capacity. Meanwhile, several plants in south-west China continued to raise operating capacity in March. As of early April, there was 39.44 million mt among 43.59 million mt per year of existing primary aluminium capacity in operation, while operating rates across Chinese primary aluminium producers stood at 90.5%. Daily output rose 200 mt from February to 107,900 mt. The proportion of aluminum water came in at 63.2%, up 3.9 percentage points month on month. China's factory gate prices rose at their fastest annual pace since July 2018 in March, official data showed, as growth in the world's second-largest economy continued to gather momentum. China's producer price index (PPI) rose 4.4% in annual terms, the National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement. The inflation data is the latest indicator to point to robust economic growth in the January-March quarter. Driven by the downstream demand, social stocks of aluminium ingot continued to decline as scheduled. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -14.53% to settled at 1730 while prices down -3.45 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 180.8 and below same could see a test of 179.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 184.6, a move above could see prices testing 186.9.          

Trading Ideas:            

*  Aluminium trading range for the day is 179.3-186.9.

* Aluminium prices dropped after China’s primary aluminium output rose 10.2% year on year to 3.35 million mt in March

* China's factory gate prices rose at their fastest annual pace since July 2018 in March, official data showed

* Driven by the downstream demand, social stocks of aluminium ingot continued to decline as scheduled.

Mentha oil ​​​​​​​      

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.07% at 956 amid weak demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India. The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market. The market has been faced with the lack of migrant labor, supply chain disruptions, shutdown of manufacturing activities, to name a few. Support also seen on the expectation that India’s fragrance industry which had been slow, now slowly gaining the positive momentum post the COVID unlock down. Headed towards a new decade, the fragrance industry has received a much needed boost with the acceptance of trendy dhoop sticks and dhoop cones which has seen an increased 20% demand day by day. The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030. Growing demand for aroma chemicals in the food & beverage and fragrance industry will underpin the growth of the market. Strict regulations in relation to artificial flavours are complimenting to the expansion of natural aroma chemicals in the food sector. Out of India's total mentha oil exports, nearly 55% goes to China while 16% goes to the US and around 5% goes to Singapore. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -1.4 Rupees to end at 1084.7 Rupees per 360 kgs. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.33% to settled at 44 while prices up 0.7 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 954.7 and below same could see a test of 953.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 957.6, a move above could see prices testing 959.2.      

Trading Ideas:            

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 953.4-959.2.

* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -1.4 Rupees to end at 1084.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.

* Mentha oil prices settled flat amid weak demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India.

* The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market.

* The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030.

Soyabean      

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 1.81% at 6458 as concerns over lower U.S. planting and rain-delayed harvest in Brazil supported prices. European Union soybean imports in the 2020/21 season that started last July had reached 11.20 million tonnes by April 4, data published by the European Commission showed. Support also seen on concerns about U.S. supplies dwindling due to strong export demand and smaller-than-expected plantings. The U.S. Department of Agriculture shocked traders last week by reporting that U.S. farmers plan to sow 87.6 million acres with soybeans this spring. Post forecasts that Brazilian producers will expand soybean planted area to reach 40 million hectares (ha) in the 2021/22 season, up from the estimated 38.5 million ha planted in the 2020/21 season. Post forecasts 2021/22 soybean production at 141 million metric tons (MMT), up from the estimated 134 MMT harvest this season. Soybean expansion is forecast on current market conditions and trends – including strong demand, high prices, and a favorable exchange rate. All these conditions are expected to persist well into the 2021/22 season. Soybean exports are forecast to hit records this season and next at 85 MMT and then 87 MMT. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 54 Rupees to 6720 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.7% to settled at 110180 while prices up 115 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 6376 and below same could see a test of 6295 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6518, a move above could see prices testing 6579.    

Trading Ideas:            

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 6295-6579.

* Soyabean prices gained as concerns over lower U.S. planting and rain-delayed harvest in Brazil supported prices.

* European Union soybean imports in the 2020/21 season that started last July had reached 11.20 million tonnes by April 4

* USDA attache projects Brazil 2021/22 soybean production at 141 mln tonnes

* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  54 Rupees to 6720 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Ref.Soyaoil​​​​​​​      

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled up by 0.07% at 1300.3 tracking rise in soyabean prices after the U.S. Department of Agriculture's plantings forecast for 2021 fell below most trade expectations. Export of oilmeals jumped 205% year-on-year in February to 393,309 tonne, compared with 128,761 tonne, according to data compiled by the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA). The overall export of oilmeals during April 2020 to February 2021 recovered sharply and stood at 3,358,649 tonne provisionally, against 2,256,614 tonne during the same period of the previous year, up by 49%, according to the association. The export of soybean meal jumped mainly because of better realisations, thanks to lesser supply from Argentina and Brazil, coupled with good demand of non-GMO soybean meal from the US and Europe, the association said in a statement. Support also seen due to tightening global supplies. However upside seen limited due to better crop weather in drought-hit South America. The U.S. soybean crush was well below trade expectations in February, sinking to the lowest in 17 months, according to data released by the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA). NOPA members, which handle about 95 percent of all soybeans processed in the United States, crushed 155.158 million bushels of soybeans last month, the lowest for a single month since September 2019. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1335.8 Rupees per 10 kgs. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 17.09% to settled at 32310 while prices up 0.9 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1280 and below same could see a test of 1259 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1319, a move above could see prices testing 1337.  

Trading Ideas:            

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1259-1337.

* Ref soyoil settled flat with prositive node tracking rise in soyabean prices after the USDA's plantings forecast for 2021 fell below most trade expectations. 

* Export of oilmeals jumped 205% year-on-year in February to 393,309 tonne, compared with 128,761 tonne.

* The U.S. soybean crush was well below trade expectations in February, sinking to the lowest in 17 months

*  At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1335.8 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil​​​​​​​      

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled down by -0.3% at 1137.2 on profit booking but prices gained over 4% on weekly basis as support seen due to weakness in Rupee and fears of a short supply. The Malaysian Palm Oil Council has stated that Malaysia's palm oil reserves are expected to decline for the third consecutive year at the end of 2021. Malaysia's palm oil inventories likely inched higher by the end of March as production advanced for the first time in six months, though a surge in exports kept supply tight. The palm oil stockpile in the world's second-largest producer was expected to rise 1.3% from February to 1.32 million tonnes. Production, which had been shrinking since September due to wet weather conditions and a pandemic-induced labour crunch, is expected to have jumped 25% to a four-month high of 1.38 million tonnes. The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) said it expects the benchmark crude palm oil price to average 3,846 ringgit a tonne during the first half of the year and will peak at 4,190 ringgit a tonne. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for March 1-31 rose 18.3% to 1,245,567 tonnes from 1,052,779 tonnes shipped during Feb 1-28, cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said . Sri Lanka banned imports of palm oil and new palm plantations, and told producers to uproot existing plantations in a phased manner, in a surprise move that baffled the edible oil industry. In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped by -1.4 Rupees to end at 1178.6 Rupees. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.41% to settled at 5720 while prices down -3.4 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1108.4 and below same could see a test of 1079.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1159.1, a move above could see prices testing 1180.9.           

Trading Ideas:            

* CPO trading range for the day is 1079.5-1180.9.

*  Crude palm oil dropped on profit booking but prices gained over 4% on weekly basis as support seen due to weakness in Rupee and fears of a short supply.

*  MPOC has stated that Malaysia's palm oil reserves are expected to decline for the third consecutive year at the end of 2021.

*  Malaysia's palm oil inventories likely inched higher by the end of March as production advanced for the first time in six months.

* In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped  by -1.4 Rupees to end at 1178.6 Rupees.

Mustard Seed      

Mustard Seed yesterday settled up by 1.01% at 6205 as support seen after consultancy Strategie Grains lowered its forecast for the 2021 rapeseed harvest in the 27-nation European Union to 16.8 million tonnes from the 17.05 million tonnes forecast last month. In recent times, the demand for this oilseed has increased after the Food Standards Regulator, FSSI banned the adulteration of any type of edible oil with mustard oil from 8 June 2021. Secondly, high prices of edible oils in the international market are also encouraging mustard oil prices in the spot markets. Finally, prices will be helped after the Haryana government starts purchasing at the minimum support price. Market sources say that while the arrival of mustard in the mandis was increasing from 10 to 11 lakh bags till a few days ago, now the arrivals are being less than eight to nine lakh bags. In the case of mustard, the situation is better for both consumers and traders. The Haryana government starts purchasing at the minimum support price. Limited stocks lying in the accredited warehouses of NCDEX added to the bullish tone. According to the second advance estimates released by the agriculture ministry in February, there may be a record production of mustard seen at 10.43 million tonne in 2020-21 crop year (July-June), up by over 14% from the previous year. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 57 Rupees to end at 6197.5 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 10.9% to settled at 82810 while prices up 62 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 6131 and below same could see a test of 6056 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6296, a move above could see prices testing 6386.   

Trading Ideas:            

* Rmseed trading range for the day is 6056-6386.

* Mustard seed gained as support seen after consultancy Strategie Grains lowered its forecast EU harvest to 16.8 million tonnes.

* The demand for this oilseed has increased after FSSI banned the adulteration of any type of edible oil with mustard oil

*  Prices also seen supported after the Haryana government starts purchasing at the minimum support price.

* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 57 Rupees to end at 6197.5 Rupees per 100 kg.

Turmeric​​​​​​​   

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -1.32% at 8234 as arrivals expected to come fast due to disease attacked, most of the farmers in Marathwada are harvesting turmeric fields simultaneously. Fast arrivals will result in early end of season. Marathwada bulk arrivals are expected to come down before the end of May. Around 7 weeks only bulk arrivals can come. The arrival so far this year has been 10.15 lakh bags (one bag of 50 kg) as compared to 11.50 lakh bags in the same period last year and 14 lakh bags in 2019.In Nanded in Maharashtra, arrivals are at least 40 per cent lower. Erode market will be closed for 10 days from April 2. The quality of arrivals is average with low production. In addition to this, stocks in the pipeline have also come down this year following the increase in turmeric exports. According to data by the Ministry of Agriculture, turmeric production was estimated at 9.46 lakh tonnes during the 2019-20 season (July-June), compared with 9.61 lakh tonnes the previous year, despite the area under the crop rising by 4,000 hectares to 2.57 lakh hectares. According to data by the Spices Board, turmeric exports during the April-September period of the current fiscal were 99,000 tonnes compared with 69,500 tonnes during the same period a year ago with the value of the shipments rising 35 per cent. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7752.8 Rupees gained 72.8 Rupees. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 18.01% to settled at 8910 while prices down -110 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 8138 and below same could see a test of 8044 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8388, a move above could see prices testing 8544.

Trading Ideas:            

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 8044-8544.

* Turmeric prices dropped as arrivals expected to come fast due to disease attacked, most of the farmers in Marathwada are harvesting turmeric fields simultaneously.

* Marathwada bulk arrivals are expected to come down before the end of May. Around 7 weeks only bulk arrivals can come.

* Erode market will be closed for 10 days from April 2. The quality of arrivals is average with low production.

*  In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7752.8 Rupees gained 72.8 Rupees.

Jeera​​​​​​​      

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.66% at 14345 as mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level increased by around 48% during the month over the previous month and by 43% over the corresponding period of the previous year. New season crop arrivals are reported in both the key producing states, viz., Gujarat and Rajasthan, which seem to have led to higher mandi arrivals. However, new season crop is reported to have higher moisture level. This, indirectly, lent support to prices of better quality produce. In the progressive 2020-21 Rabi season, Jeera acreage in Gujarat, is reported at 4.69 lakh hectares, lower by 4% from 4.88 lakh hectares a year ago. The area sown in Gujarat is 15% more than 5-year average sown area during the corresponding period. Good rainfall during October which has improved required soil moisture which is expected to augur well for production of Rabi crops, including Jeera. On the export front, India exported around 2.30 lakh tonnes of Jeera in April-December, 2020 which is 36% higher than April-December 2019 at 1.69 lakh tonnes. In Dec 2020, Jeera exports reported at 0.27 lakh tonnes, have been 52% higher than 0.18 lakh tonnes recorded in the previous month. Jeera exports from India has already surpassed the total exports (2.14 lakh tonnes) recorded for the last year (2019-20). In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -25 Rupees to end at 14170 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 15.45% to settled at 5424 while prices down -95 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 14235 and below same could see a test of 14125 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 14510, a move above could see prices testing 14675.  

Trading Ideas:            

* Jeera trading range for the day is 14125-14675.

* Jeera dropped as pressure seen as mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level increased by around 48% during the month 

*  New season crop arrivals are reported in Gujarat and Rajasthan, seems to have led to higher mandi arrivals.

* However, new season crop is reported to have higher moisture level.

* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -25 Rupees to end at 14170 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton​​​​​​​      

Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.41% at 21850 due to increase in COVID-19 cases, mills are now in a mode of wait and watch. Some support seen earlier in the week after USDA in its annual outlook, said that the area under cotton could remain stagnant or drop two per cent from about 13 million hectares (mh) this season. However, the cotton sector is split over its view on the prospects for the fibre crop next crop year (July 2021-June 2022) with a section saying that the area under the crop might increase, while the other expressing pessimism over the prospects of a higher acreage. This is despite growers getting higher than minimum support price (MSP) for most part of the current season and States such as Telangana declaring their intention to bring more acreage under the fibre crop. “The area under cotton will increase next season since the kapas (raw cotton) rate is ruling at ₹6,500-6,600 a quintal. That is almost 15 per cent higher than the MSP,” said Cotton Association of India President Atul Ganatra. For this season, the Centre has fixed the MSP for medium staple cotton at ₹5,515 a quintal. “Chances of a higher acreage in cotton are bright as it is the most attractive cash crop,” said K Selvaraju, Secretary-General, Southern India Mills Association – a representative body of the textile industry in the southern region. In spot market, Cotton gained by 70 Rupees to end at 22090 Rupees. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.8% to settled at 6861 while prices down -90 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 21760 and below same could see a test of 21680 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 21980, a move above could see prices testing 22120.        

Trading Ideas:            

* Cotton trading range for the day is 21680-22120.

* Cotton prices dropped due to increase in COVID-19 cases, mills are now in a mode of wait and watch. 

*  However, the cotton sector is split over its view on the prospects for the fibre crop next crop year  with a section saying that the area under the crop might increase

*  During the current season, area under cotton dropped to 12.96 mh from 13.37 mh last season, according to the CCPC.

*  In spot market, Cotton gained  by 70 Rupees to end at 22090 Rupees.

Chana

Chana yesterday settled up by 1.18% at 5471 as sentiments are quite positive as the government has started procuring gram in some major producing states at MSP. Madhya Pradesh, the largest producing state of gram, has started a procurement campaign since last week. About 1.45 million tonnes of gram will be purchased in the state. Support also seen on expectations of better demand during the forthcoming festival season amid lower inventories. This apart, the concern of unseasonal rain in the early part of this year has stoked up crop damage fears in some of the northern states. In addition, the government has spruced up procurement through minimum support price as higher arrivals at major markets have pulled down spot prices below the ₹5,100 per quintal. Chana arrivals last month increased three-fold to 6.4 lakh tonnes. The government agency Nafed is learnt to have procured 1.24 lakh tonnes of chana in Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka and Gujarat. As per Ministry of Agriculture data, chana sowing in this Rabi season crossed 112 lakh ha, which is up by about five per cent from same period last year. The second advance estimates of Ministry of Agriculture pegs chana production at a record high of 116 lakh tonnes in 2020-21 season (111 lakh tonnes). In Delhi spot market, chana gained by 111.5 Rupees to end at 5408.6 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.46% to settled at 128830 while prices up 64 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 5408 and below same could see a test of 5346 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5526, a move above could see prices testing 5582.  

Trading Ideas:            

*  Chana trading range for the day is 5346-5582.

* Chana gained as sentiments are quite positive as the government has started procuring gram in some major producing states at MSP.

* Madhya Pradesh, the largest producing state of gram, has started a procurement campaign since last week.

* Support also seen on expectations of better demand during the forthcoming festival season amid lower inventories.

*  In Delhi spot market, chana gained  by 111.5 Rupees to end at 5408.6 Rupees per 100 kgs.

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