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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.54% at 52803 amidst the unprecedented Covid related situation in China. The strict Covid curbs triggered rare protests in China, setting alarm bells in world markets regarding repercussions on the global demand and growth situation. Investors' focus this week will be on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's Wednesday speech on the U.S. economy and labour market for clues on the monetary policy outlook. The U.S. Labor Department's November nonfarm payrolls data due on Friday is expected to provide more clarity on the Fed's rate-hike path. India witnessed a decline in both gold and silver imports in October, according to the latest by the Commerce ministry. The import of the yellow metal declined 17.38% to about $24 billion during April-October due to a fall in demand, according to the data of the commerce ministry. The gold import stood at $29 billion in the corresponding period last year, the ministry added. According to industry experts, demand will start picking up in January 2023. This month, the Centre rose the base import prices of gold and silver as prices rose in the world market. China's net gold imports via Hong Kong in October fell by 45% from the previous month, Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department data showed. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 6.99% to settle at 14381 while prices are down -287 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 52617 and below same could see a test of 52432 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 53145, a move above could see prices testing 53488.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 52432-53488.
* Gold dropped amidst the unprecedented Covid related situation in China.
* Investors' focus this week will be on Fed Powell's Wednesday speech on the U.S. economy and labour market for clues on the monetary policy outlook.
* India’s Gold imports fall 17% in April-October to $24 billion


Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -1.28% at 62384 after protests against widespread lockdowns in China to curb rising coronavirus infections sparked demand concerns. Global consumption of the white metal is expected to hit a new all-time high in 2022, driven by post-pandemic industrial and physical investment demand. At the same time, the world governments’ commitments to green technologies lifted the overall demand outlook for the commodity in the longer term. Signs of low supply also supported prices, as New York’s COMEX inventories fell 70% in the last 18 months to just over 1 million tonnes. Also, the London Bullion Market Association stockpiles fell for the 10th straight month to a record-low 27.1 thousand tonnes in November. Aside from the demand-supply dynamics, prospects of a less aggressive tightening from major central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, have also lent optimism to silver bulls. The CBI distributive trades survey’s retail sales balance in the UK slumped 37 points to -19 in November 2022, pointing to a sharp decline in sales, according to the CBI’s latest quarterly Distributive Trades Survey. In addition, firms anticipated a similar rate of sales decline next month. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 19.75% to settle at 13001 while prices are down -812 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 61868 and below same could see a test of 61352 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 63232, a move above could see prices testing 64080.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 61352-64080.
* Silver prices fell after protests against widespread lockdowns in China to curb rising coronavirus infections sparked demand concerns.
* Global consumption of the white metal is expected to hit a new all-time high in 2022
* The LBMA stockpiles fell for the 10th straight month to a record-low 27.1 thousand tonnes in November.


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 0.46% at 6340 on rumors of an OPEC+ production cut offset concerns about weak demand. Eurasia Group said major oil producers were considering a new production cut when they meet on December 4th, after in October agreed to reduce its output target by 2 million barrels per day through 2023. China has stuck with President Xi Jinping's zero-COVID policy even as much of the world has lifted most restrictions. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, a group known as OPEC+, will meet on Dec. 4. In October OPEC+ agreed to reduce its output target by 2 million barrels per day through 2023. Meanwhile, Group of Seven (G7) and European Union diplomats have been discussing a price cap on Russian oil of between $65 and $70 a barrel, with the aim of limiting revenue to fund Moscow's military offensive in Ukraine without disrupting global oil markets. The global oil market is signaling a potential shift, as traders and analysts worry about reduced crude demand and an oversupplied market in the coming months. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 2.23% to settle at 18192 while prices are up 29 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6133 and below same could see a test of 5926 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6466, a move above could see prices testing 6592.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 5926-6592.
* Crude oil gained on rumors of an OPEC+ production cut offset concerns about weak demand.
* Eurasia Group said major oil producers were considering a new production cut when they meet on December 4th
* Global oil market signals short-term weakness ahead of EU ban on Russian oil


Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -2.63% at 589.5 on forecasts for less cold weather over the next two weeks. However, downside seen limited amid concerns of potential coal supply disruptions. Workers at the largest US rail union voted against a tentative contract deal reached in September, raising the possibility of a year-end strike that could disrupt coal deliveries and force power generators to switch to gas. In the meantime, uncertainty over the supply and demand of natural gas in the US over the coming months prevailed as investors monitored forecasts of cold weather and news regarding the restart of the Freeport LNG export terminal. Freeport has signaled that operations should restart in December, but has not yet submitted activity requests to the US government. Meanwhile, EIA data showed US utilities pulled 80 billion cubic feet of gas from storage during the week ending November 18th, below market expectations of an 87 billion draw. The market had questions about whether Freeport LNG will be able to restart its liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas in mid-December as planned. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -5.56% to settle at 4872 while prices are down -15.9 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 571.8 and below same could see a test of 554 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 603.3, a move above could see prices testing 617.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 554-617.
* Natural gas prices dropped forecasts for less cold weather over the next two weeks.
* However, downside seen limited amid concerns of potential coal supply disruptions.
* EIA data showed US utilities pulled 80 billion cubic feet of gas from storage


Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.39% at 672.95 as protests in several Chinese cities against the country's strict COVID-19 curbs sparked uncertainty and dampened investor sentiment. Hundreds of demonstrators and police clashed in Shanghai as protests over China's stringent COVID curbs flared for a third day and spread to several cities in the wake of a deadly fire in the country's far west. China's industrial firms saw overall profits decline further in the January-October period as COVID-19 outbreaks flared up and cities imposed new virus curbs, including targeted lockdowns, dampening economic activity. Industrial profits fell 3.0% in the first 10 months of 2022 from a year earlier. That compared with a 2.3% drop for January-September, National Bureau of Statistics data showed. The world's refined copper market showed a 10,000 tonne deficit in September, compared with 13,000 tonnes in August, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. World refined copper output in September was 2.16 million tonnes, while consumption was 2.17 million tonnes. For the first nine months of the year, the market was in a 295,000 tonne deficit compared with a 233,000 tonne deficit in the same period a year earlier, the ICSG said. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 1.63% to settle at 5102 while prices are down -2.65 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 666 and below same could see a test of 659 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 677, a move above could see prices testing 681.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 659-681.
* Copper dropped as protests in several Chinese cities against the country's strict COVID-19 curbs sparked uncertainty and dampened investor sentiment.
* China's industrial firms saw overall profits decline further in the January-October period
* Copper market in 10,000 tonne deficit in September – ICSG


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.19% at 263.95 as China stepped up efforts to support the economy, fuelling speculation of a pick up in demand and offering some respite to prices. China imported 1,007 mt of refined zinc in October, down 77.55% on the month and 97.54% on the year. Still, concerns persist about the possibility of further supply disruptions in Europe amid uncertainty around shortages of energy. Numerous European zinc producers had to either shut down their smelters entirely or cut production down this year due to high energy costs and low inventories. Meanwhile, the Budel smelter of Nyrstar was planning to resume production partially this month, and giant Glencore said it expects to resume production in the first quarter of 2023. The global zinc market deficit rose to 103,000 tonnes in September from a revised deficit of 90,200 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Previously, the ILZSG had reported a deficit of 101,100 tonnes in August. During the first nine months of 2022, ILZSG data showed a deficit of 43,000 tonnes versus a deficit of 101,000 tonnes in the same period of 2021. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 4.21% to settle at 2944 while prices are up 0.5 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 260.9 and below same could see a test of 257.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 265.9, a move above could see prices testing 267.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 257.7-267.7.
* Zinc gains as China stepped up efforts to support the economy
* Global zinc market deficit rises to 103,000 T in September – ILZSG
* China imported 1,007 mt of refined zinc in October, down 77.55% on the month and 97.54% on the year.


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.07% at 206.55 as the renewed pandemic outbreak across the country weighed on the market sentiment. The aluminium ingot social inventories across China’s eight major markets hit a new low of 516,000 mt as of November 28, a drop of 2,000 mt from last Thursday. The figure was also 97,000 mt lower than a month ago and 498,000 mt less than the same period last year. Top consumer China stepped up efforts to support the economy, fuelling speculation of a pick up in demand and offering some respite to prices. On the supply side, LME has decided against banning Russian metal from being traded and stored in its warehouses because a substantial share of the market is still planning to buy the country's metal in 2023. Still, the metal is down roughly 40% from a record high of approximately $4,000 touched in March amid persistent fears of a demand-sapping global recession triggered by an aggressive tightening campaign from major central banks. Alcoa, the largest US aluminum producer, has warned investors that high energy and raw material costs and a fall in aluminum prices are putting pressure on margins. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 3.31% to settle at 4864 while prices are down -0.15 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 205 and below same could see a test of 203.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 207.5, a move above could see prices testing 208.4.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 203.4-208.4.
* Aluminium dropped as the renewed pandemic outbreak across the country weighed on the market sentiment.
* China stepped up efforts to support the economy, fuelling speculation of a pick up in demand and offering some respite to prices.
* LME has decided against banning Russian metal from being traded and stored in its warehouses


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.44% at 958.4 as mentha exports during Apr-Sept 2022 has dropped by 13.84 percent at 1,107.20 tonnes as compared to 1,285.12 tonnes exported during Apr- Sept 2021. In the month of September 2022 around 220.67 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 238.04 tonnes in August 2022 showing a drop of 7.30%. In the month of September 2022 around 220.67 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 250.97 tonnes in September 2021 showing a drop of 12.07%. Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. Support also seen amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Spot market, support seen after IMD issues Yellow Alert in key sowing area ; light-moderate rain to continue till Sept 4 impacting arrival in the mandi. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 21.1 Rupees to end at 1101.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.33% to settle at 908 while prices are down -4.2 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 953.7 and below same could see a test of 949.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 963.3, a move above could see prices testing 968.3.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 949.1-968.3.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 21.1 Rupees to end at 1101.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oilprices dropped as exports during Apr-Sept 2022 has dropped by 13.84 percent
* In the month of September 2022 around 220.67 tonnes Mentha was exported showing a drop of 7.30%.
* However, Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted.


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.48% at 7122 amid lower demand from domestic spice-makers and stockists amid availability of Turmeric supply form Marathwada region. Marathwada region has been serving as a round-the-year supply centre for Turmeric since past couple of years. Agriculture Minister Narendra Singh Tomar said unseasonal rains in some parts of the country have affected the crops. As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, Turmeric sowing activity completed around 16,921 hectares as compared to last year same period 19,376 hectares, down by 12.67%. Turmeric exports during Apr- Sept 2022 has rose by 14.65 percent at 88,384.27 tonnes as compared to 77,091.52 tonnes exported during Apr- Sept 2021. In the month of September 2022 around 13,990.65 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 12,147.89 tonnes in August 2022 showing a rise of 15.16%. In the month of September 2022 around 13,990.65 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,598.15 tonnes in September 2021 showing a rise of 11.05%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7441.05 Rupees dropped -32.05 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.45% to settle at 9200 while prices are down -34 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7036 and below same could see a test of 6950 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7222, a move above could see prices testing 7322.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6950-7322.
* Turmeric dropped amid lower demand from domestic spice-makers and stockists amid availability of supply.
* As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, turmeric sowing activity completed around 16,921 hectares, down by 12.67% till date from last year.
* Marathwada region has been serving as a round-the-year supply centre for Turmeric since past couple of years.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7441.05 Rupees dropped -32.05 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 3.18% at 24320 amid higher demand for the fresh crop and supply tightness in the physical market. Good demand expected from China in December-January and Ramzan demand during January-February from gulf & other countries. As per Gujarat Government, around 77,037 hectares of sowing has been completed as on 21st November 2022 in Jeera key growing regions in Gujarat and according to this data, normal area (three years average) in Gujarat likely to be around 421,457 hectares. Jeera exports during Apr- Sept 2022 has dropped by 21.28 percent at 1,09,587.28 tonnes as compared to 1,39,218.38 tonnes exported during Apr- Sept 2021. In the month of September 2022 around 18,081.78 tonnes jeera was exported as against 24,448.33 tonnes in August 2022 showing a drop of 26.04%. In the month of September 2022 around 18,081.78 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 14,828.07 tonnes in September 2021 showing a rise of 21.94%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -339 Rupees to end at 23888.35 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.56% to settle at 5808 while prices are up 750 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 23750 and below same could see a test of 23180 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 24700, a move above could see prices testing 25080.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 23180-25080.
* Jeera prices rose amid higher demand for the fresh crop and supply tightness in the physical market.
* Current year sowing area likely to increase in Rajasthan and Gujarat growing regions.
* All-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 by around 33% to 3 lakh tonnes on y-o-y basis due to lower sowings.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -339 Rupees to end at 23888.35 Rupees per 100 kg.


Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -1.91% at 30810 as India’s domestic cotton demand for the 2022-23 season up to September is estimated to be lower by about 18 lakh bales (170 kg each) at 300 lakh bales or nearly 6 per cent less than last year’s 318 lakh bales, the Cotton Association of India (CAI) has estimated. The association’s Cotton Crop Committee meeting attributed the decline in domestic consumption to a reduction in operations of mills due to slack demand for yarn and cloth. India is likely to produce 34.4 million bales of cotton in the 2022/23 season that started on Oct. 1, up 12% from a year ago after farmers expanded the crop area. India’s cotton output for the season ended September 30, 2022, fell to 307.5 lakh bales (against 360.13 lakh bales estimated at the beginning of the season in October last year. This is the lowest since 2007-08, when the production was 307 lakh bales. WASDE report said world trade is projected to be nearly 1 million bales lower from September, with declines in imports by China, Pakistan, Mexico, Turkey and Vietnam. The agency lowered its U.S. exports forecast by 100,000 bales to 12.5 million bales, while also cutting export estimates for Australia, Brazil, India, Benin, Cote d’Ivoire, Greece and Mexico. "In the 2022/23 world balance sheet this month, consumption is 3.0 million bales lower and ending stocks are 3.1 million bales higher," the USDA said. In spot market, Cotton gained by 490 Rupees to end at 32960 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 1.77% to settle at 2876 while prices are down -600 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 30590 and below same could see a test of 30360 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 31120, a move above could see prices testing 31420.

Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 30360-31420.
* Cotton dropped as current year sowing area likely to increase in Rajasthan and Gujarat growing regions.
* Cotton supply is expected to remain around 38.7 million bales which was 39.2 million bales during 2021-22.
* Data from CFTC showed that speculators cut their net short position on cotton futures
* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 490 Rupees to end at 32960 Rupees.
 

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