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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.97% at 50138 prompted by a stronger dollar, after a hotter-than-expected inflation print pushed bets of more jumbo rate hikes by the Fed to curb persistent inflationary pressures. The US annual inflation rate eased to 8.3% in August from 8.5% in July, above market expectations of 8.1%. The headline CPI went up 0.1% from a month earlier, against expectations of a 0.1% decrease. Excluding energy and fuel, prices rose 0.6%, much higher than a forecast of 0.3%. The US central bank is widely expected to deliver its third straight 75 basis point rate hike at the Sept. 20-21 policy meeting. Although gasoline costs slowed sharply, there was a general broad-based increase in prices, namely for food and shelter. In Europe, investors bet the ECB will continue to rise borrowing costs sharply after the central bank delivered a historic 75bps rate hike early this month. While gold is considered a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainties, higher interest rates raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, denting its appeal. Physical gold demand in some Asian hubs remained firm as lower prices lured buyers, although an uptick in domestic rates restrained purchases in India. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 2.48% to settle at 9882 while prices are down -493 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 49883 and below same could see a test of 49627 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 50484, a move above could see prices testing 50829.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 49627-50829.
* Gold prices fell prompted by a stronger dollar, after a hotter-than-expected inflation print pushed bets of more jumbo rate hikes by the Fed.
* US 10-Year treasury yield breaks above 3.4%
* The US annual inflation rate eased to 8.3% in August from 8.5% in July, above market expectations of 8.1%.


Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -1.18% at 56811 as the dollar jumped after an unexpected rise in monthly consumer prices that could support the case for aggressive rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. Monthly U.S consumer prices unexpectedly rose in August as declining gasoline prices were offset by gains in the costs of rent and food. The consumer price index gained 0.1% last month after being unchanged in July, the Labor Department said. In the 12 months through August, the CPI increased 8.3%, a deceleration from July's 8.5% rise. The U.S. Federal Reserve is seen delivering a third straight 75-basis point interest rate hike next week, if not more, after a government report showed that consumer prices did not ease as expected in August and price pressures appeared to broaden. Economists had expected a small monthly decline as energy prices fell. But the report showed accelerating inflation in many goods and services and a particularly worrisome rise in rent, which tends to be sticky from one month to the next. After Tuesday's disappointing inflation report traders of futures tied to the Fed policy rate dropped any lingering bets on the central bank downshifting to a half-point rate hike next week. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 5.71% to settle at 18432 while prices are down -680 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 56353 and below same could see a test of 55895 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 57459, a move above could see prices testing 58107.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 55895-58107.
* Silver fell as the dollar jumped after an unexpected rise in monthly consumer prices that could support the case for aggressive rate hikes
* In the 12 months through August, the CPI increased 8.3%, a deceleration from July's 8.5% rise.
* The consumer price index gained 0.1% last month after being unchanged in July, the Labor Department said


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -0.67% at 6928 as U.S. consumer prices unexpectedly rose in August, giving cover for the U.S. Federal Reserve to deliver another hefty interest rate increase next week. OPEC stuck to its forecasts for robust global oil demand growth in 2022 and 2023 citing signs that major economies were faring better than expected despite headwinds such as surging inflation. Oil demand will increase by 3.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2022 and by 2.7 million bpd in 2023, unchanged from last month, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in a monthly report. Oil use has rebounded from the lows of the pandemic, although high prices and Chinese coronavirus outbreaks have trimmed 2022 projections. The downgrades, in OPEC's view, have delayed a recovery in oil use to above 2019 levels until 2023, it said last month. "Oil demand in 2023 is expected to be supported by a still-solid economic performance in major consuming countries, as well as potential improvements in COVID-19 restrictions and reduced geopolitical uncertainties," OPEC said in report. Crude inventory in the U.S. emergency reserves fell by 8.4 million barrels in the week to Sept. 9 to 434.1 million barrels, according to data from the Department of Energy. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -12.75% to settle at 6208 while prices are down -47 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6785 and below same could see a test of 6641 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7073, a move above could see prices testing 7217.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6641-7217.
* Crude oil eases after bearish U.S. economic data
* Demand growth seen at 3.1 mln bpd in 2022, 2.7 mln bpd in 2023
* Crude in U.S. emergency reserve falls to lowest since Oct 1984

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -0.32% at 655.1 amid record output, forecasts for lower demand next week than previously expected and the ongoing outage at the Freeport liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas, which has left more gas in the United States for utilities to inject into stockpiles for next winter. It also coincided with the ongoing outage at the Freeport liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas, which has left more gas in the United States for utilities to inject into stockpiles for next winter. Freeport, the second-biggest U.S. LNG export plant, was consuming about 2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas before it shut on June 8. Freeport LNG expects the facility to return to at least partial service in early to mid-November. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states have risen to 93.1 bcfd so far in September from a record 98.0 bcfd in August. With the coming of cooler autumn weather, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would slip from 93.1 bcfd this week to 92.7 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Monday. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 1.44% to settle at 4160 while prices are down -2.1 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 646.5 and below same could see a test of 637.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 666.8, a move above could see prices testing 678.5.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 637.9-678.5.
* Natural gas prices dropped on forecasts for warmer weather
* The U.S. EIA said utilities added 54 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week.
* U.S. natgas output and demand to hit record highs in 2022 – EIA



Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -1.49% at 652.9 amid pressure from a strong dollar after US inflation fell less than expected, strengthening the expected duration that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates at a restrictive level. Domestically, investors remain cautious ahead of a slew of economic data due Friday that will give insights on where the Chinese economy stands following strict power rationing and further Covid lockdowns. Sentiment was slightly higher after Premier Li Keqiang said that China will continue to roll out phased policies to stabilize its Covid-stricken economy. On top of that, data released last week showed that consumer and producer prices in China slowed more than expected in August, giving authorities more leeway on stimulus measures to support the economy following lower activity in Q2 and Q3. The premium of LME cash copper over the three-month contract ended at $124 a tonne, the highest since November 2021, indicating tightening supply of immediately available copper in the exchange warehouse system. The red metal has been rising amidst signs of physical tightness, hopes for more policy support in top metals consumer China and various supply-side risks. Workers at BHP’s Escondida in Chile, the world’s largest copper miner, are currently negotiating with local regulators after threatening an all-out strike last week due to safety concerns. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 10.51% to settle at 5561 while prices are down -9.85 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 645.9 and below same could see a test of 639 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 665.8, a move above could see prices testing 678.8.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 639-678.8.
* Copper dropped amid pressure from a strong dollar after US inflation fell less than expected
* The premium of LME cash copper over the three-month contract ended at $124 a tonne, the highest since November 2021.
* Investors remain cautious ahead of a slew of economic data due Friday that will give insights on where the Chinese economy stands


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.3% at 285.15 on expectations the Federal Reserve will keep tightening aggressively to curb sky-high inflation hurting economic growth and demand for metals. Expectations of deeper production cuts in Europe, shortages and dwindling stocks after high energy costs forced Nyrstar to shut its zinc smelter in the Netherlands have bolstered zinc’s price prospects. At the same time, Beijing recently imposed stringent power restrictions across the country. China's refined zinc output stood at 462,700 mt in August, down 13,200 mt or 2.77% on the month and 46,200 mt or 9.07% on the year. China's refined zinc output is expected to increase by 62,900 mt to 525,700 mt in September, up 13,800 mt and 2.69% on the year. From January to September 2022, the combined refined zinc output is estimated to be 4.435 million mt, a decrease of 2.6% year on year. The output is expected to increases as smelters in Sichuan and Hunan have resumed the production after the power rationing ended. Some smelters in Gansu, Guangxi and Inner Mongolia produce normally after the maintenance. Hunan Haoyu will release the output since September and October after starting to produce. The LME zinc cash-three-month premium fell to $13.25 a tonne, its lowest since June 10, suggesting that nearby supply tightness has eased. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.91% to settle at 1539 while prices are down -0.85 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 282.5 and below same could see a test of 279.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 290.4, a move above could see prices testing 295.4.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 279.6-295.4.
* Zinc dropped on expectations the Federal Reserve will keep tightening aggressively to curb sky-high inflation hurting economic growth and demand for metals.
* The LME zinc cash-three-month premium fell to $13.25 a tonne, its lowest since June 10, suggesting that nearby supply tightness has eased.
* China's refined zinc output stood at 462,700 mt in August, down 13,200 mt or 2.77% on the month and 46,200 mt or 9.07% on the year.



Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.55% at 201.05 amid persistent supply concerns. China produced 3.488 million mt of aluminium in August, up 8.16% on the year. China's producer price inflation eased to an 18-month low of 2.3 percent yoy in August 2022 from 4.2 percent in the prior month and less than market consensus of 3.1 percent. The latest figure represented the 20th straight month of slowing producer prices. On a monthly basis, producer prices declined 1.2 percent in August after falling 1.3 percent in July. Food prices in China climbed by 6.1 percent year-on-year in August 2022, slowing from a 6.3 percent rise a month earlier, which was the highest inflation in 22 months, and pointing to the fifth straight month of increase, amid imposing fresh COVID-19 restrictions in some cities to curb infections. China's annual inflation rate fell to 2.5% in August 2022 from July's 2-year high of 2.7%. The latest figure was below market forecasts of 2.8%, amid strict COVID curbs and severe heatwaves, with cost easing for both food and non-food. China produced 3.488 million mt of aluminium in August (31 calendar days), up 8.16% on the year. Although the output in Sichuan fell sharply in August, enterprises still produced some goods. Therefore, the daily output fell less significant by 112,500 mt. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -9.39% to settle at 4726 while prices are up 1.1 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 199.4 and below same could see a test of 197.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 202.6, a move above could see prices testing 204.2.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 197.8-204.2.
* Aluminium gains amid persistent supply concerns.
* China's producer price inflation eased to an 18-month low of 2.3 percent yoy in August 2022 from 4.2 percent in the prior month
* China's annual inflation rate fell to 2.5% in August 2022 from July's 2-year high of 2.7%


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.76% at 983.5 as Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. However, downside seen limited amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year we forecast production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. Mentha exports during Apr-July 2022 has dropped by 19.63 percent at 648.49 tonnes as compared to 806.87 tonnes exported during Apr-July 2021. In the month of July 2022 around 155.04 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 113.33 tonnes in June 2022 showing a rise of 36.80. In the month of July 2022 around 155.04 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 283.33 tonnes in July 2021 showing a decline of over 45.28%. In the month of June 2022 around 113.33 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 209.90 tonnes in May 2022 showing a drop of 46%. In Spot market, support seen after IMD issues Yellow Alert in key sowing area ; light-moderate rain to continue till Sept 4 impacting arrival in the mandi. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 12.2 Rupees to end at 1128.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.2% to settle at 1334 while prices are down -7.5 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 979 and below same could see a test of 974.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 990.5, a move above could see prices testing 997.4.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 974.4-997.4.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 12.2 Rupees to end at 1128.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil dropped as Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted.
* However, downside seen limited amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic.
* In the month of July 2022 around 155.04 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 113.33 tonnes in June 2022 showing a rise of 36.80.


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.76% at 7124 on short covering after prices dropped in recent sessions on report of better sowing. The Product Advisory Committee (PAC) on turmeric has rejected calls for banning futures trade in the commodity, claiming that it has not found any unusual movement in its price. As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, sowing activity completed around 7,958 hectares as compared to last year same period 7,764 hectares. Sufficient stocks and good sowing reports kept turmeric prices under pressure. Turmeric exports during Apr-July 2022 has rose by 17.72 percent at 62,245.73 tonnes as compared to 52,875.44 tonnes exported during Apr-July 2021. In the month of July 2022 around 12,810.36 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 18,532.00 tonnes in June 2022 showing a drop of 30.87%. In the month of July 2022 around 12,810.36 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,826.38 tonnes in July 2021 showing a decrease of 0.12%. In the month of June 2022 around 17,532.00 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 13,206 tonnes in June 2021 showing an increase of 40.33%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7250 Rupees dropped -28.5 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 1.42% to settle at 12855 while prices are up 54 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7046 and below same could see a test of 6966 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7194, a move above could see prices testing 7262.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6966-7262.
* Turmeric gained on short covering after prices dropped in recent sessions on report of better sowing.
* In the ongoing season, no major quality concerns were observed in the crop arrived in the Marathwada region.
* In the month of July 2022 around 12,810.36 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 18,532.00 tonnes in June 2022 showing a drop of 30.87%.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7250 Rupees dropped -28.5 Rupees.


Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.73% at 25520 as supply was observed to be less as farmers and stockists were holding stocks in expectations of higher prices in coming months. Arrivals also observed to be less during the month. Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level decreased by 10% as compared with previous month supported by decrease in arrivals in Rajasthan as well as in Gujarat. Jeera exports during Apr-July 2022 has dropped by 37.28 percent at 67,057.16 tonnes as compared to 1,06 ,929.72 tonnes exported during Apr-July 2021. In the month of July 2022 around 19,866.18 tonnes jeera was exported as against 21,587.63 tonnes in June 2022 showing a drop of 7.97%. In the month of July 2022 around 19,866.18 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 24,167.64 tonnes in June 2021 showing a decrease of 17.80%. In the month of June 2022 around 21,587.63 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 30,989.86 tonnes in June 2021 showing a decrease of 30.34%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 219.4 Rupees to end at 24784.1 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 13% to settle at 8319 while prices are up 185 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 25325 and below same could see a test of 25130 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 25740, a move above could see prices testing 25960.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 25130-25960.
* Jeera prices seen supported as supply was observed to be less as farmers and stockists were holding stocks
* Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level decreased by 10% as compared with previous month
* All-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 by around 33% to 3 lakh tonnes on y-o-y basis due to lower sowings.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 219.4 Rupees to end at 24784.1 Rupees per 100 kg.


Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -3.15% at 35400 as India’s Cotton sowing gained by nearly 7.34% to 126.66 lakh hectares in 2022 against an area sown of 118 lakh hectares in 2021. Cotton crops, remain under threat due to adverse weather conditions and pest attacks in major growing regions. India’s cotton output for the season 2022-23 is likely to touch 375 lakh bales (each of 170 kg), given no climatic adversities affect the crop during October, sources said. India’s Cotton sowing gained by nearly 7.34% to 126.66 lakh hectares in 2022 against an area sown of 118 lakh hectares in 2021.Atul Ganatra, President, Cotton Association of India (CAI), stated that the cotton crop condition in India was "very good and if everything goes well, we are expecting 350 lakh bales +/– 25 lakh bales." The crop size may touch 375 lakh bales if there are no rains during October. In its monthly supply-demand report, the 2022/23 U.S. cotton projections include higher beginning stocks, production, exports and ending stocks this month, the USDA's report said. Additionally, the 2022/23 world cotton projections include higher production and ending stocks relative to last month, and lower consumption. In recent time, the heavy rainfalls and pest attacks are affecting the cotton crop. In the northern states of Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan cotton crop has been affected due to pink bollworm infestation. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -150 Rupees to end at 41320 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 8.75% to settle at 733 while prices are down -1150 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 35010 and below same could see a test of 34620 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 36140, a move above could see prices testing 36880.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 34620-36880.
* Cotton dropped as as India’s Cotton sowing gained by nearly 7.34% to 126.66 lakh hectares in 2022
* India’s cotton output for the season 2022-23 is likely to touch 375 lakh bales
* Cotton area is estimated at 126 lakh hectares till September 2 — up 8-9 per cent from 117 lakh hectares last year.
* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -150 Rupees to end at 41320 Rupees.

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