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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.26% at 49175 as investors maintained a cautious stance ahead of this week's policy meeting by the Federal Reserve where the U.S. central bank is likely to hike interest rates to tame high inflation. The U.S. Fed, at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, is expected to raise interest rates by 75 basis points, with markets even seeing a 19% chance for a 100-bps increase. Swiss exports of gold to China fell in August from July's 5-1/2-year high, while shipments to Turkey rose to their highest since June 2013, Swiss customs data showed. Falling gold prices in recent months have seen metal flow from commercial vaults in the United States and Britain to countries in Asia, which have large consumer markets for gold and typically take advantage of low prices. The customs figures also showed that Switzerland imported 5.7 tonnes of Russian gold worth around $320 million in August, the most since April 2020, but Swiss authorities said this metal, while Russian in origin, came from Britain. Gold lost its shine as a store of value in times of economic uncertainties as the US’ relative economic strength and the Fed’s aggressive stance against inflation lifted the dollar at the expense of other safe-haven assets. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.97% to settle at 8787 while prices are down -127 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 49031 and below same could see a test of 48887 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 49388, a move above could see prices testing 49601.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 48887-49601.
* Gold prices traded in a tight range as investors maintained a cautious stance ahead of this week's policy meeting by the Federal Reserve
* The U.S. dollar and Treasury yields firmed on expectations of a hefty Fed rate hike.
* Swiss gold exports to China slow but shipments to Turkey surge

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.6% at 56343 as the dollar index extended gains above 110, moving closer towards its highest level in 20 years, as investors digested strong US housing data in a week that will see the Federal Reserve hike interest rates for a third straight time. US policymakers are expected to deliver a 75 basis point increase on Wednesday to tame elevated inflationary pressures, with some analysts betting on a bigger full percentage point hike. Also, the US economy has been showing relative strength in the face of slowing global growth, making the dollar more attractive for investors looking for safety. Meanwhile, the market is also monitoring other major central banks' meetings, with the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England also expected to raise interest rates this week. Building permits in the US, a proxy for future construction, tumbled 10% to an annualized rate of 1.517 million in August of 2022, well below market expectations of 1.61 million. It was the biggest drop since April 2020 and the lowest level since June 2020. Single-family authorizations dropped 3.5 percent to 899 thousand units, while approvals of units in buildings with five units or more declined 18.5 percent to 571 thousand. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 7.99% to settle at 19554 while prices are down -341 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 55920 and below same could see a test of 55496 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 56953, a move above could see prices testing 57562.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 55496-57562.
* Silver dropped as the dollar index extended gains above 110, moving closer towards its highest level in 20 years
* Dollar extends gains after strong housing data
* US policymakers are expected to deliver a 75 basis point increase on Wednesday to tame elevated inflationary pressures

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -1.07% at 6744 amid lingering concerns about the impact of slower global economic growth on demand. A sign of underlying tight supply, a document from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia showed the group fell short of its output target by 3.583 million barrels per day (bpd) in August - around 3.5% of global oil demand. U.S. crude oil stocks are estimated to have risen last week by around two million barrels. U.S. vehicle travel in July fell 3.3% from a year earlier, dropping for a second month. The U.S. Energy Department will sell up to 10 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for delivery in November, extending the timing of a plan to sell 180 million barrels from the stockpile to tame fuel prices. U.S. crude stocks and distillate inventories rose while gasoline inventories fell, the Energy Information Administration said. Crude inventories rose by 2.4 million barrels in the week to Sept. 9 to 429.6 million barrels, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for an 833,000-barrel rise. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 12.85% to settle at 7098 while prices are down -73 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6634 and below same could see a test of 6523 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6874, a move above could see prices testing 7003.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6523-7003.
* Crude oil tumbled amid lingering concerns about the impact of slower global economic growth on demand.
* A sign of underlying tight supply, data showed the group fell short of its output target by 3.583 mbpd in August.
* U.S. crude oil stocks are estimated to have risen last week by around two million barrels.

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 0.24% at 618.6 amid persistent fears of an energy crisis in Europe and near-insatiable demand. Elsewhere, data from the EIA pointed to 77 billion cubic feet of gas being added to storage by utilities in the week that ended September 9th, above estimates of 73 billion. Meanwhile, domestic supply is set to rise as the Cove Point LNG plant in Maryland is set to shut down for maintenance in October, disabling exports abroad and increasing stockpiles for domestic utilities. The event adds to the sharp delay in the restart of Freeport LNG’s Quintana export plant to November. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 98.9 bcfd so far in September from a record 98.0 bcfd in August. With the coming of cooler autumn weather, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would slip from 91.5 bcfd this week to 90.3 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Friday. The average amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants rose to 11.3 bcfd so far in September from 11.0 bcfd in August. That compares with a monthly record of 12.9 bcfd in March. The seven big U.S. export plants can turn about 13.8 bcfd of gas into LNG. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.19% to settle at 5293 while prices are up 1.5 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 607.5 and below same could see a test of 596.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 633.5, a move above could see prices testing 648.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 596.3-648.3.
* Natural gas rebounded amid persistent fears of an energy crisis in Europe and near-insatiable demand.
* Data from the EIA pointed to 77 billion cubic feet of gas being added to storage by utilities in the week
* Domestic supply is set to rise as the Cove Point LNG plant in Maryland is set to shut down for maintenance in October

Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.32% at 646.4 amid expectations of a 75bps rate hike to curb inflation in the market, and the US dollar index also surged. China is starting to ease strict COVID-19 regulations that had hurt economic growth and metals demand in the country. Local authorities of the southwestern Chinese city of Chengdu on Sunday announced plans to resume production and life "in an orderly manner" following more than two weeks of lockdowns and other strict curbs. However, metals trading sentiment was cautious ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting later in the day, amid a busy week for global central bank meetings. A group of indigenous Peruvian communities that have been blocking a key copper corridor agreed to a truce on Sunday after the country's prime minister said he would meet with them. Peru is the world's No. 2 copper producer. The blockade, which lasted less than a week, affected operations by Glencore’s Antapaccay, MMG Ltd's Las Bambas and Hudbay Minerals Inc's Constancia. Protesters are asking the state to carry out a formal consultation process on whether Antapaccay should be allowed to build a new copper project nearby known as Coroccohuayco. A meeting with Prime Minister Aníbal Torres has been set for Tuesday, according to minutes of a meeting held earlier on Dunday between protesters, mine representatives and the government. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -4.38% to settle at 4798 while prices are down -2.05 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 643.3 and below same could see a test of 640.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 652.2, a move above could see prices testing 657.9.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 640.1-657.9.
* Copper dropped amid expectations of a 75bps rate hike to curb inflation in the market, and the US dollar index also surged.
* China is starting to ease strict COVID-19 regulations that had hurt economic growth and metals demand in the country.
* Trading sentiment was cautious ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting later in the day, amid a busy week for global central bank meetings.

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.78% at 279.85 on expectations the Federal Reserve will keep tightening aggressively to curb sky-high inflation hurting economic growth and demand for metals. The arrivals in the market was delayed by the spreading covid, and the spot supply was relatively tight. LME stocks currently stand at 75,700 tonnes, down by 123,625 tonnes on the start of the year. Almost a third of the remaining tonnage is earmarked for physical load-out. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory has been sliding as well, hitting a fresh 2022 low of 58,407 tonnes this week. LME inventory in Europe continues to comprise a single lot at the Spanish port of Bilbao, while U.S. warehouses hold just 2,100 tonnes, all of it cancelled and due to depart. Nyrstar's 315,000-tonne-per-year Budel smelter in the Netherlands is the second to close fully after Glencore placed its Italian smelter on care and maintenance at the end of last year. The global market generated a supply surplus of 27,000 tonnes in January-June, according to the ILZSG, which was expecting a significant deficit of 290,000 tonnes this year at its April meeting. China's refined zinc output stood at 462,700 mt in August, down 13,200 mt or 2.77% on the month and 46,200 mt or 9.07% on the year. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -7.2% to settle at 1122 while prices are down -2.2 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 277.9 and below same could see a test of 275.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 283.4, a move above could see prices testing 286.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 275.8-286.8.
* Zinc prices dropped on expectations the Federal Reserve will keep tightening aggressively to curb sky-high inflation hurting economic growth and demand for metals.
* LME stocks currently stand at 75,700 tonnes, down by 123,625 tonnes on the start of the year.
* Nyrstar's 315,000-tonne-per-year Budel smelter in the Netherlands is the second to close fully.
 

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.03% at 196.5 pressured by a strong dollar while increasingly hawkish central banks dented demand for industrial metals. The latest data showed China’s aluminum imports declined 19% year-on-year in August, amid record high production and tight overseas supply. Supply fears in China eased this year after power restrictions that curtailed production were relaxed. In August, the world’s biggest producer and consumer made 3.51 million tonnes, a record for a single month. In Europe, however, rising energy costs continue to squeeze supplies of the energy-intensive metal. Global primary aluminium output in August rose 3.49% year on year to 5.888 million tonnes, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed. Estimated Chinese production was 3.5 million tonnes in August, the IAI said. China's Yunnan required local aluminium smelters to reduce their production by 10%, which is currently under way. As the power supply tends to tighten further, the output cuts could potentially expand to 20%. The installed and operating aluminium capacity in Yunnan stood at 5.61 million mt and 5.22 million mt respectively in August. The province’s aluminium output was 442,000 mt last month, accounting for 12.7% of China’s total output. Smelters in Sichuan are now resuming their production, but the output release has been slow. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -10.35% to settle at 4307 while prices are down -0.05 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 195.5 and below same could see a test of 194.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 197.8, a move above could see prices testing 199.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 194.4-199.
* Aluminum dropped pressured by a strong dollar while increasingly hawkish central banks dented demand for industrial metals.
* Global aluminium output rises 3.49% year on year in August – IAI
* Supply fears in China eased this year after power restrictions that curtailed production were relaxed.

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.82% at 979.6 amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. However, upside seen limited as Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year we forecast production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. Mentha exports during Apr-July 2022 has dropped by 19.63 percent at 648.49 tonnes as compared to 806.87 tonnes exported during Apr-July 2021. In the month of July 2022 around 155.04 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 113.33 tonnes in June 2022 showing a rise of 36.80. In the month of July 2022 around 155.04 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 283.33 tonnes in July 2021 showing a decline of over 45.28%. In the month of June 2022 around 113.33 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 209.90 tonnes in May 2022 showing a drop of 46%. In Spot market, support seen after IMD issues Yellow Alert in key sowing area ; light-moderate rain to continue till Sept 4 impacting arrival in the mandi. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 5.4 Rupees to end at 1128.6 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.74% to settle at 994 while prices are up 8 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 972.2 and below same could see a test of 964.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 985.6, a move above could see prices testing 991.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 964.9-991.7.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 5.4 Rupees to end at 1128.6 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil gained amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic.
* However, upside seen limited as Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted.
* In the month of July 2022 around 155.04 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 113.33 tonnes in June 2022 showing a rise of 36.80.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.42% at 7250 on low level buying after sowing activities has almost completed in major growing states across India and Crop size is expected to be on par. The Product Advisory Committee (PAC) on turmeric has rejected calls for banning futures trade in the commodity, claiming that it has not found any unusual movement in its price. As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, sowing activity completed around 7,958 hectares as compared to last year same period 7,764 hectares. Sufficient stocks and good sowing reports kept turmeric prices under pressure. Turmeric exports during Apr-July 2022 has rose by 17.72 percent at 62,245.73 tonnes as compared to 52,875.44 tonnes exported during Apr-July 2021. In the month of July 2022 around 12,810.36 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 18,532.00 tonnes in June 2022 showing a drop of 30.87%. In the month of July 2022 around 12,810.36 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,826.38 tonnes in July 2021 showing a decrease of 0.12%. In the month of June 2022 around 17,532.00 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 13,206 tonnes in June 2021 showing an increase of 40.33%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7362.4 Rupees dropped -44.2 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.09% to settle at 13135 while prices are up 30 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7214 and below same could see a test of 7180 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7286, a move above could see prices testing 7324.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7180-7324.
* Turmeric gained on low level buying after sowing activities has almost completed and Crop size is expected to be on par.
* In the ongoing season, no major quality concerns were observed in the crop arrived in the Marathwada region.
* In the month of July 2022 around 12,810.36 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 18,532.00 tonnes in June 2022 showing a drop of 30.87%.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7362.4 Rupees dropped -44.2 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.04% at 24615 amid continues selling pressure after support seen as supply was observed to be less as farmers and stockists were holding stocks in expectations of higher prices in coming months. Arrivals also observed to be less during the month. Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level decreased by 10% as compared with previous month supported by decrease in arrivals in Rajasthan as well as in Gujarat. Jeera exports during Apr-July 2022 has dropped by 37.28 percent at 67,057.16 tonnes as compared to 1,06 ,929.72 tonnes exported during Apr-July 2021. In the month of July 2022 around 19,866.18 tonnes jeera was exported as against 21,587.63 tonnes in June 2022 showing a drop of 7.97%. In the month of July 2022 around 19,866.18 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 24,167.64 tonnes in June 2021 showing a decrease of 17.80%. In the month of June 2022 around 21,587.63 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 30,989.86 tonnes in June 2021 showing a decrease of 30.34%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -185.5 Rupees to end at 24308.25 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a remain unchanged in open interest by 0% to settle at 8691 while prices are down -10 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 24210 and below same could see a test of 23805 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 24850, a move above could see prices testing 25085.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 23805-25085.
* Jeera recovered from lows as support seen as supply was observed to be less as farmers and stockists were holding stocks
* Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level decreased by 10% as compared with previous month
* All-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 by around 33% to 3 lakh tonnes on y-o-y basis due to lower sowings.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -185.5 Rupees to end at 24308.25 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.83% at 32720 as support seen after reports Pakistan’s cotton production has shrunk 19% to 2.19 million bales till September 15, 2022 in the current season mainly due to the devastation caused by heavy rainfall and flash floods nationwide. India’s Cotton sowing gained by nearly 7.54% to 127.15 lakh hectares in 2022 against an area sown of 118.24 lakh hectares in 2021. Cotton crops, remain under threat due to adverse weather conditions and pest attacks in major growing regions. India’s cotton output for the season 2022-23 is likely to touch 375 lakh bales (each of 170 kg), given no climatic adversities affect the crop during October. In its monthly supply-demand report, the 2022/23 U.S. cotton projections include higher beginning stocks, production, exports and ending stocks this month, the USDA's report said. Additionally, the 2022/23 world cotton projections include higher production and ending stocks relative to last month, and lower consumption. In recent time, the heavy rainfalls and pest attacks are affecting the cotton crop. In the northern states of Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan cotton crop has been affected due to pink bollworm infestation. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -530 Rupees to end at 38020 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 4.88% to settle at 925 while prices are up 270 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 32310 and below same could see a test of 31900 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 33260, a move above could see prices testing 33800.
Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 31900-33800.
* Cotton gains as support seen after reports Pakistan’s cotton production has shrunk 19% to 2.19 million bales
* India’s Cotton sowing gained by nearly 7.54% to 127.15 lakh hectares in 2022.
* Cotton area is estimated at 126 lakh hectares till September 2 — up 8-9 per cent from 117 lakh hectares last year.
* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -530 Rupees to end at 38020 Rupees.
 

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