IGI Logo

Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 1.26% at 45919 supported by a weaker dollar and as U.S. Treasury yields retreated. Cleveland Fed Bank President Loretta Mester said the U.S. economic outlook is brightening, though the U.S. central bank should stick to its easy policy to support growth further. Still, risk sentiment remained upbeat after robust economic data from China and the United States raised hopes of a faster pace of economic recovery. The spring 2021 meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank are taking place this week, with discussion likely to revolve around how to steer fiscal and monetary policies in the period ahead. Perth Mint's gold sales climbed to their highest since at least 2012 in March as a fall in prices of the metal lifted demand for minted products. Sales of gold coins and minted bars jumped to more than 130,000 ounces in March, up 4.8% month-on-month and 39% from a year earlier. Investors are also awaiting minutes on Wednesday from the Federal Reserve's last meeting for more cues on its monetary policy. Money managers in the gold, markets cut their net long futures and options positions in the latest week, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Comex gold speculators cut their net long position by 5,548 contracts to 50,463 in the week ended March 30. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.19% to settled at 12432 while prices up 570 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 45568 and below same could see a test of 45217 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 46122, a move above could see prices testing 46325.     

Trading Ideas:            

* Gold trading range for the day is 45217-46325.

* Gold prices rose supported by a weaker dollar and as U.S. Treasury yields retreated.

* U.S. job openings increased more than expected in February

* Investors await Fed minutes due on Wednesday

Silver ​​​​​​ 

Silver yesterday settled up by 2.07% at 65897 bolstered by a weaker dollar and a retreat in US Treasury yields. Still, much of the upside was capped by upbeat economic data out of the US and China that fed expectations of a swift economic recovery in 2021. Still, risk sentiment remained upbeat after robust economic data from China and the United States raised hopes of a faster pace of economic recovery. U.S. job openings increased more than expected in February while hiring improved as strengthening domestic demand amid increased vaccinations and additional fiscal stimulus boost companies' need for more workers. Job openings, a measure of labor demand, increased 268,000 to 7.4 million on the last day of February, the Labor Department said in its monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report. The spring 2021 meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank are taking place this week, with discussion likely to revolve around how to steer fiscal and monetary policies in the period ahead. Money managers in the silver markets cut their net long futures and options positions in the latest week, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Comex gold speculators cut their net long position by 5,548 contracts to 50,463 in the week ended March 30. Meanwhile, Comex silver speculators cut their net long position by 1,659 contracts to 21,236 in the week. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.46% to settled at 9535 while prices up 1335 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 65159 and below same could see a test of 64422 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 66401, a move above could see prices testing 66906.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Silver trading range for the day is 64422-66906.

* Silver prices gained bolstered by a weaker dollar and a retreat in US Treasury yields.

* Still, much of the upside was capped by upbeat economic data out of the US and China that fed expectations of a swift economic recovery in 2021.

* U.S. job openings increased more than expected in February while hiring improved as strengthening domestic demand

Crude oil       

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 2.01% at 4367 buoyed by reports suggesting that the chances of a breakthrough in talks to revive an Iranian nuclear accord were slim. The move by the OPEC+ group of oil exporters to ease their output restrictions from May onwards is effectively a bet that the current soft demand for crude will improve at the same pace as production returns. The group decided at a meeting on April 1 to ease their output cuts of about 7 million bpd by 350,000 bpd in May, another 350,000 bpd in June and by 400,000 bpd in July. In addition, OPEC+'s top exporter, Saudi Arabia, said it was phasing out its extra voluntary cuts by July, a move that will add 1 million bpd. Investors believe talks between Iran and the US as part of broader negotiations to revive the 2015 nuclear deal might not have an immediate breakthrough, with Washington saying they will be difficult. Also, the ISM Services PMI in the US hit a record high in March and services activity in China, the largest oil importer, grew the most in three months. The rise in oil prices followed an over 4% drop on Monday, as major oil producers agreed to increase output by 350,000 barrels per day in May, 350,000 bpd in June and 400,000 bpd in July. Prices were already under pressure due to concerns about extended restrictive measures in Europe, slow vaccine rollouts and rising COVID-19 cases in India and Brazil. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -26.9% to settled at 3598 while prices up 86 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 4286 and below same could see a test of 4204 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4464, a move above could see prices testing 4560.  

Trading Ideas:            

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 4204-4560.

* Crude oil prices gained buoyed by reports suggesting that the chances of a breakthrough in talks to revive an Iranian nuclear accord were slim.

* Marine traffic slowed in the Suez Canal as oil tanker M/T Rumford appeared to face difficulties in the south of the canal

* OPEC+ bets crude oil demand will recover as fast as output returns

Nat.Gas      

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -0.44% at 182.8 on forecasts the weather will remain much milder than usual and heating demand low through late April. The near 5% collapse in gas prices on Monday made it cheaper for some power generators to burn more gas and less coal to produce electricity. Recent increases in production combined with an early start to the summer storage injection season last month caused the premium of futures for March over April 2022 to fall to its lowest since April 2020. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 92.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April, up from March's 91.6-bcfd average but still well below the record monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would rise from 89.6 bcfd this week to 89.9 bcfd next week on increasing power generator usage. The forecast for next week is higher than Refinitiv's projection on Monday. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants, meanwhile, averaged 11.4 bcfd so far in April, which would top March's monthly record of 10.8 bcfd. Buyers around the world continue to purchase near record amounts of U.S. gas because prices in Europe and Asia remain high enough to cover the cost of buying and transporting the U.S. fuel across the ocean. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.78% to settled at 11674 while prices down -0.8 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 180.1 and below same could see a test of 177.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 187.2, a move above could see prices testing 191.6.  

Trading Ideas:            

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 177.4-191.6.

*  Natural gas fell on forecasts the weather will remain much milder than usual and heating demand low through late April.

* U.S. utilities added 14 billion cubic feet (bcf) of natural gas to storage last week, lower than the expected 21 bcf injection.

* Refinitiv estimated 174 heating degree days (HDDs) over the next two weeks in the lower 48 U.S. states.

Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.2% at 688.7 as top producer Codelco struck a wage deal with workers at its Radomiro Tomic mine, avoiding a potential strike and easing concerns about global supply disruptions. However downside seen limited as top producer Chile's decision to close its border amid rising COVID-19 cases raised further supply concerns in an already tight market. Chile closed its borders and tightened an already strict lockdown last week to slow the spread of COVID-19 and stop the influx of contagious new variants as cases climbed past 1 million despite one of the world's fastest vaccination rates. Japan's output of refined copper in the first half of the 2021/22 financial year will fall 1.9% year on year, despite recovering demand from a slump during the pandemic. The weak forecast comes also amid fears that a recent fire at a Japanese semiconductor factory will aggravate a global chip shortage and force automakers to cut output. Japan's demand for wrought copper products is forecast to rise 13.4% in the 2021/22 year after falling 11.7% a year earlier, the Japan Copper and Brass Association said this week. Japan's Pan Pacific Copper (PPC) plans to produce 303,700 tonnes of refined copper in the first half of the 2021/22 financial year that started this month, up 3.3% from a year earlier, the country's biggest supplier of the metal said. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -16.19% to settled at 2775 while prices down -1.4 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 682.7 and below same could see a test of 676.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 694.5, a move above could see prices testing 700.1.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Copper trading range for the day is 676.5-700.1.

* Copper prices dropped as Codelco struck a wage deal with workers at its Radomiro Tomic mine, avoiding a potential strike and easing concerns about supply

* Japan's output of refined copper in the first half of the 2021/22 financial year will fall 1.9% year on year

* Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 4.9 percent from last Friday, the exchange said.

Zinc      

Zinc yesterday settled up by 1.82% at 223.65 as treatment charges for domestic zinc concentrate continued to fall and rising production costs supported prices. In addition, zinc social inventories shrank further as downstream users restocked on demand. Data showed that social inventories of refined zinc ingots across Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong and Hebei decreased 14,500 mt in the week ended April 2 to 233,500 mt. The stocks fell 8,800 mt from Monday March 29. Prices also remained supported in the wake of improving economic prospects backed by the Biden government’s more than $2 trillion stimulus plan. Stocks in Shanghai decreased due to increasing purchase volume of the downstream when zinc prices fell. In south China's Guangdong, market arrivals decreased with stable downstream demand, which led to the continuous decrease in stocks. Stocks in Tianjin fell as downstream restocking demand increased and the maintenance of smelters in Inner Mongolia affected market arrivals. China’s economic recovery continued in March, powered by a strong surge in the service sector, data showed. The global zinc market was oversupplied by 11,700 tonnes in January after a revised surplus of 23,500 tonnes in December, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. For 2020, the surplus in the roughly 13.5 million tonne a year market was 536,000 tonnes, according to the ILZSG. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 22.53% to settled at 2067 while prices up 4 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 221.6 and below same could see a test of 219.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 225, a move above could see prices testing 226.3. 

Trading Ideas:            

* Zinc trading range for the day is 219.5-226.3.

* Zinc prices gained as treatment charges for domestic zinc concentrate continued to fall and rising production costs supported prices.

* In addition, zinc social inventories shrank further as downstream users restocked on demand.

* Data showed that social inventories of refined zinc ingots decreased 14,500 mt in the week ended April 2 to 233,500 mt.

Nickel      

Nickel yesterday settled up by 1.27% at 1247.4 as a streak of strong U.S. economic data fueled optimism even as a smaller-than-expected climb in 10-year Treasury notes eased inflation concerns. The dollar dipped to one-week lows as stocks hit record highs and Treasury yields held below recent highs, though low liquidity with many parts of the world off for Easter holidays was likely exaggerating the move. The services sector in China continued to expand in March, and at a faster pace, the latest survey from Caixin showed with a PMI score of 54.3. That's up from 51.5 in February, and it moves further above the boom-or-but line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction. Individually, business activity and sales both rose at quicker rates, while employment returned to growth. Business confidence hit its highest mark in more than a decade amid hopes for a post-pandemic recovery. Eurozone manufacturing activity grew at its fastest pace on record in March, with IHS Markit’s final manufacturing PMI coming in at 62.5 compared to February's 57.9. The bounce was led by Germany, which notched a reading of 66.6 thanks to resurgent demand from the U.S. and China. However, German retail sales in February fell short of economist expectations to rise by 1.2%, a full 9% below the same time last year. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 9.78% to settled at 1526 while prices up 15.7 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1231.4 and below same could see a test of 1215.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1256.5, a move above could see prices testing 1265.6.    

Trading Ideas:            

* Nickel trading range for the day is 1215.4-1265.6.

* Nickel gains as a streak of strong U.S. economic data fueled optimism even as a smaller-than-expected climb in 10-year Treasury notes eased inflation concerns.

* China services PMI jumps to 54.3 in march – Caixin

* Eurozone manufacturing activity grew at its fastest pace on record in March, with IHS Markit’s final manufacturing PMI coming in at 62.5

Aluminium      

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 1.2% at 180.95 as better-than-expected jobs data boosted economic outlook. US non-farm employment added 916,000 in March, reaching to its highest in seven months, and unemployment rate fell to 6%. The premiums for aluminium shipments to Japanese buyers for April to June were set at $148-$149 a tonne, up 14-15% from this quarter, on a tight container market and recovery in demand from a pandemic-induced slump. The April-June premiums are the highest since the same quarter in 2015. In January to March, the premium was $130 per tonne. This is a third consecutive quarterly rise in premiums. Traders worried that Chinese efforts to reduce smelter pollution will restrict output and supply will fall short of demand. China accounts for around 60% of global aluminium output but the government is expected to curtail capacity growth, with Inner Mongolia ordering some smelter closures this month. Soaring shipping costs, booming demand and tight supplies of primary and scrap aluminium are likely to fuel further price rises, particularly in importing countries such as the United States and Europe. China Hongqiao Group, a big producer, will this year publish targets for lower carbon emissions and an action plan on how to reach them, its chairman said. Speculative investors are rebuilding a bullish position in LME aluminium with a net long equal to 7.8% of open contracts as of Thursday. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 17.14% to settled at 1756 while prices up 2.15 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 179.3 and below same could see a test of 177.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 182.1, a move above could see prices testing 183.1.    

Trading Ideas:            

*  Aluminium trading range for the day is 177.5-183.1.

 * Aluminium prices gained as better-than-expected jobs data boosted economic outlook.

* US non-farm employment added 916,000 in March, reaching to its highest in seven months, and unemployment rate fell to 6%.

* The premiums for aluminium shipments to Japanese buyers for April to June were set at $148-$149 a tonne, up 14-15% from this quarter

Mentha oil      

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.27% at 958.2 amid weak demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India. The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market. The market has been faced with the lack of migrant labor, supply chain disruptions, shutdown of manufacturing activities, to name a few. Support also seen on the expectation that India’s fragrance industry which had been slow, now slowly gaining the positive momentum post the COVID unlock down. Headed towards a new decade, the fragrance industry has received a much needed boost with the acceptance of trendy dhoop sticks and dhoop cones which has seen an increased 20% demand day by day. The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030. Growing demand for aroma chemicals in the food & beverage and fragrance industry will underpin the growth of the market. Strict regulations in relation to artificial flavours are complimenting to the expansion of natural aroma chemicals in the food sector. Out of India's total mentha oil exports, nearly 55% goes to China while 16% goes to the US and around 5% goes to Singapore. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -4.9 Rupees to end at 1061.2 Rupees per 360 kgs. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed remain unchanged in open interest by 0% to settled at 44 while prices down -2.6 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 955.3 and below same could see a test of 952.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 962.1, a move above could see prices testing 965.9.   

Trading Ideas:            

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 952.3-965.9.

* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -4.9 Rupees to end at 1061.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.

* Mentha oil prices dropped amid weak demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India.

* The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market.

* The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030.

Soyabean       

Soyabean yesterday settled down by -0.33% at 6435 on profit booking after CME raises soybean futures (s) maintenance margins by 11.7% to $3,350 per contract from $3,000 for May 2021. Some support seen at lower level as concerns about near-term supply were stoked by harvesting delays in Brazil one of the world's largest exporters of the oilseed. Support also seen on concerns about U.S. supplies dwindling due to strong export demand and smaller-than-expected plantings. The U.S. Department of Agriculture shocked traders last week by reporting that U.S. farmers plan to sow 87.6 million acres with soybeans this spring. The USDA planting estimates revived concerns about tightening global supplies after importers led by China, along with domestic processors, loaded up on grain and soybeans this season. Brazilian farmers had harvested 78% of the area planted with the 2020/2021 soybean crop as of last Thursday, compared with 83% at the same point last year. As the soybean season draws to a close, Brazilian farmers were able to finish planting their second corn crop, as much of it is grown in the same areas as the oilseeds. In order to be self-sufficient in the case of edible oils, it is necessary that the government continues to support the oilseed growing farmers. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 40 Rupees to 6607 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.28% to settled at 42005 while prices down -21 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 6343 and below same could see a test of 6250 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6508, a move above could see prices testing 6580.  

Trading Ideas:            

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 6250-6580.

* Soyabean prices dropped on profit booking after CME raises soybean futures (s) maintenance margins by 11.7% to $3,350 per contract

* Some support seen at lower level as concerns about near-term supply were stoked by harvesting delays in Brazil

* Support also seen on concerns about U.S. supplies dwindling due to strong export demand and smaller-than-expected plantings.

* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  40 Rupees to 6607 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Ref.Soyaoil      

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled up by 1.04% at 1327.3 tracking rise in soyabean prices after the U.S. Department of Agriculture's plantings forecast for 2021 fell below most trade expectations. export of oilmeals jumped 205% year-on-year in February to 393,309 tonne, compared with 128,761 tonne, according to data compiled by the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA). The overall export of oilmeals during April 2020 to February 2021 recovered sharply and stood at 3,358,649 tonne provisionally, against 2,256,614 tonne during the same period of the previous year, up by 49%, according to the association. The export of soybean meal jumped mainly because of better realisations, thanks to lesser supply from Argentina and Brazil, coupled with good demand of non-GMO soybean meal from the US and Europe, the association said in a statement. Support also seen due to tightening global supplies. However upside seen limited due to better crop weather in drought-hit South America. Government is watching edible oils and may take step to control high prices. The U.S. soybean crush was well below trade expectations in February, sinking to the lowest in 17 months, according to data released by the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA). NOPA members, which handle about 95 percent of all soybeans processed in the United States, crushed 155.158 million bushels of soybeans last month, the lowest for a single month since September 2019. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1332.65 Rupees per 10 kgs. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.61% to settled at 33475 while prices up 13.6 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1311 and below same could see a test of 1295 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1338, a move above could see prices testing 1349. 

Trading Ideas:            

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1295-1349.

* Ref Soyoil gained tracking rise in soyabean prices after the U.S. Department of Agriculture's plantings forecast for 2021 fell below most trade expectations. 

* Support also seen due to tightening global supplies.

* Export of oilmeals jumped 205% year-on-year in February to 393,309 tonne, compared with 128,761 tonne

*  At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1332.65 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil​​​​​​​      

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 2.58% at 1147.1 tracking strong rival soyoil and on expectations of sustained tight supply. Production in March likely rose 21% month-on-month while export volumes probably grew 25%, with stockpile at the end of month seems to have inched up to 1.31 million tonnes. Malaysian Palm Oil Council said it expects the benchmark crude palm oil price to average 3,846 ringgit a tonne during the second quarter of the year and will peak at 4,190 ringgit a tonne. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board raised its forecast for palm oil export revenue in 2021 to 75 billion ringgit ($18.12 billion), up from 73.25 billion ringgit ($17.69 billion) last year. Sri Lanka banned imports of palm oil and new palm plantations, and told producers to uproot existing plantations in a phased manner, in a surprise move that baffled the edible oil industry. Palm oil imports and the number of plantations have been increasing in recent years in Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka's President Gotabaya Rajapaksa said in a statement the aim was to "make the country free from oil palm plantation and palm oil consumption." Sri Lanka imports around 200,000 tonnes of palm oil every year, mainly from Indonesia and Malaysia. In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 7.4 Rupees to end at 1177 Rupees. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.07% to settled at 6030 while prices up 28.9 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1124.4 and below same could see a test of 1101.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1160.4, a move above could see prices testing 1173.7.           

Trading Ideas:            

* CPO trading range for the day is 1101.7-1173.7.

* Crude palm oil prices rallied tracking strong rival soyoil and on expectations of sustained tight supply.

* Production in March likely rose 21% month-on-month while export volumes probably grew 25%

* Sri Lanka bans palm oil imports, tells producers to uproot plantations

* In spot market, Crude palm oil gained  by 7.4 Rupees to end at 1177 Rupees.

Mustard Seed      

Mustard Seed yesterday settled up by 1.07% at 6120 as support seen after consultancy Strategie Grains lowered its forecast for the 2021 rapeseed harvest in the 27-nation European Union to 16.8 million tonnes from the 17.05 million tonnes forecast last month. Market sources say that while the arrival of mustard in the mandis was increasing from 10 to 11 lakh bags till a few days ago, now the arrivals are being less than eight to nine lakh bags. In the case of mustard, the situation is better for both consumers and traders. The Haryana government starts purchasing at the minimum support price. Limited stocks lying in the accredited warehouses of NCDEX added to the bullish tone. The food standard regulator, FSSAI, has banned blending of any kind of edible oil with mustard oil from June 8. According to the second advance estimates released by the agriculture ministry in February, there may be a record production of mustard seen at 10.43 million tonne in 2020-21 crop year (July-June), up by over 14% from the previous year. However, the Central Organization for Oil Industry and Trade (COOIT) has estimated 8.95 million tonne of mustard seed output, up by more than 19% from last year. Official estimates suggested mustard production was 9.12 million tonne, while COOIT pegged it at 7.5 million tonne during 2019-20. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 40.5 Rupees to end at 6140.5 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.33% to settled at 36540 while prices up 65 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 5992 and below same could see a test of 5864 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6232, a move above could see prices testing 6344.   

Trading Ideas:            

* Rmseed trading range for the day is 5864-6344.

*  Mustard seed gained after consultancy Strategie Grains lowered its forecast for the 2021 rapeseed harvest European Union to 16.8 million tonnes.

* The arrival of mustard in the mandis was increasing from 10 to 11 lakh bags till a few days ago, now the arrivals are being less than eight to nine lakh bags.

* The Haryana government starts purchasing at the minimum support price.

* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 40.5 Rupees to end at 6140.5 Rupees per 100 kg.

Turmeric​​​​​​​      

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.83% at 8102 as demand declined at higher levels and arrivals increased in Nizamabad and Erode. Pressure also seen as no demand for shipments at current prices of around ₹9,000 and export prospects of turmeric have been affected. The arrival of dry goods in the coming days, the quality will also start to improve. Prices seen pressure as sentiments again drown down after the Central government clarified that a turmeric board would not be set up in Nizamabad as the existing spices board was already handling 50 spices including turmeric. Export prospects of turmeric have been affected following a 30 per cent increase in its prices since the beginning of this month across various primary agricultural markets in the country. According to data by the Ministry of Agriculture, turmeric production was estimated at 9.46 lakh tonnes during the 2019-20 season (July-June), compared with 9.61 lakh tonnes the previous year, despite the area under the crop rising by 4,000 hectares to 2.57 lakh hectares. According to data by the Spices Board, turmeric exports during the April-September period of the current fiscal were 99,000 tonnes compared with 69,500 tonnes during the same period a year ago with the value of the shipments rising 35 per cent. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7691.2 Rupees gained 14.8 Rupees. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.54% to settled at 4985 while prices down -68 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7990 and below same could see a test of 7876 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8254, a move above could see prices testing 8404.  

Trading Ideas:            

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7876-8404.

* Turmeric dropped as demand declined at higher levels and arrivals increased in Nizamabad and Erode.

* Pressure also seen as no demand for shipments at current prices of around ₹9,000 and export prospects of turmeric have been affected.

* Prices seen pressure as sentiments again drown down after the Central government clarified that a turmeric board would not be set up in Nizamabad

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7691.2 Rupees gained 14.8 Rupees.

Jeera      

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.62% at 14705 on low level buying after prices seen pressure in recent session as mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level increased by around 48% during the month over the previous month and by 43% over the corresponding period of the previous year. New season crop arrivals are reported in both the key producing states, viz., Gujarat and Rajasthan, which seem to have led to higher mandi arrivals. However, new season crop is reported to have higher moisture level. This, indirectly, lent support to prices of better quality produce. In the progressive 2020-21 Rabi season, Jeera acreage in Gujarat, is reported at 4.69 lakh hectares, lower by 4% from 4.88 lakh hectares a year ago. The area sown in Gujarat is 15% more than 5-year average sown area during the corresponding period. Good rainfall during October which has improved required soil moisture which is expected to augur well for production of Rabi crops, including Jeera. On the export front, India exported around 2.30 lakh tonnes of Jeera in April-December, 2020 which is 36% higher than April-December 2019 at 1.69 lakh tonnes. In Dec 2020, Jeera exports reported at 0.27 lakh tonnes, have been 52% higher than 0.18 lakh tonnes recorded in the previous month. Jeera exports from India has already surpassed the total exports (2.14 lakh tonnes) recorded for the last year (2019-20). In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 61.75 Rupees to end at 14397.05 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -15.03% to settled at 2679 while prices up 90 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 14590 and below same could see a test of 14470 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 14810, a move above could see prices testing 14910.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Jeera trading range for the day is 14470-14910.

* Jeera gained on low level buying after pressure seen as mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level increased by around 48% during the month 

* New season crop arrivals are reported in Gujarat and Rajasthan, seems to have led to higher mandi arrivals.

* However, new season crop is reported to have higher moisture level.

* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 61.75 Rupees to end at 14397.05 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton​​​​​​​      

Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.42% at 21570 as cotton exports so far this season (October 2020 to September 2021), have clocked 47 lakh bales and are expected to touch 60-70 lakh bales by the end of the season. Supply of cottonseeds might become tight in the coming kharif season if farmers decide to expand the area under the fibre crop going by the high price that prevailed during the current season to September. India has raised the price of genetically modified cotton seeds by 5% for the fiscal year that began in March, a government order said, potentially boosting revenues of leading local seed makers. According to the order, the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers' Welfare has raised the price of genetically modified cotton seeds to 767 rupees for a 450-gram packet, up from 730 rupees. New Delhi approved U.S. seed maker Monsanto's genetically modified cotton seed trait, the only lab-altered crop allowed in India, in 2003 and an upgraded variety in 2006, helping transform the country into the world's top producer and second-largest exporter of the fibre. According to the Cotton Association of India assessment, the total cotton production in the country has been 358.50 lakh bales in the current cotton season 2020-21 (October-September). In spot market, Cotton gained by 100 Rupees to end at 21880 Rupees. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.95% to settled at 7395 while prices up 90 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 21420 and below same could see a test of 21260 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 21680, a move above could see prices testing 21780.  

Trading Ideas:            

* Cotton trading range for the day is 21260-21780.

* Cotton prices remained supported as cotton exports this season expected to touch 60-70 lakh bales by the end of the season.

* India has raised the price of genetically modified cotton seeds by 5% for the fiscal year that began in March, a government order said

* The total cotton production in the country has been 358.50 lakh bales in the current cotton season 2020-21 (October-September).

* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 100 Rupees to end at 21880 Rupees.

Chana      

Chana yesterday settled up by 2.34% at 5341 as the government has started procuring gram in some major producing states at MSP. Madhya Pradesh, the largest producer of gram, has started a procurement campaign since last week. About 1.45 million tonnes of gram will be purchased in the state. The Centre has pegged chana output at 11.6 mln tn in 2020-21 (Jul-Jun) against 11.1 mln tn last year. Procurement of gram in Rajasthan will start from April 1. According to Cooperative Minister Udayalal Anjana, a target has been set to purchase 6 lakh 14 thousand 900 metric tons of gram. Gram will be purchased from farmers at the rate of Rs. 5100 per quintal. Madhya Pradesh government had postponed the procurement of crop due to bad weather. The Ministry of Agriculture Department has announced a new date for the production of gram and mustard crop in the agricultural produce mandis of Madhya Pradesh and the procurement work is scheduled to be started from 27-03-2021. This time, all the crops coming in the Kharif and Rabi season are sitting low in the form of productivity, due to which all the pulses and oilseeds crops are seeing a rapid growth. In Delhi spot market, chana gained by 245.75 Rupees to end at 5385.75 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -18.22% to settled at 37310 while prices up 122 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 5235 and below same could see a test of 5128 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5429, a move above could see prices testing 5516.          

Trading Ideas:            

* Chana trading range for the day is 5128-5516.

* Chana prices ended with gains as the government has started procuring gram in some major producing states at MSP.

* Madhya Pradesh, has started a procurement campaign and about 1.45 million tonnes of gram will be purchased in the state.

* Gram will be purchased from farmers at the rate of Rs. 5100 per quintal.

* In Delhi spot market, chana gained  by 245.75 Rupees to end at 5385.75 Rupees per 100 kgs.

-www.kediaadvisory.com

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views. Click Here For Disclaimer