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Gold
Gold yesterday settled down by -0.33% at 57695 on profit booking as investors digest monetary policy decisions from major central banks. Today, both the BoE and the ECB delivered a 50bps rate hike and reinforced more hikes would follow. The Fed however, continued to scale back the pace of rate increases and opted for a smaller 25bps. Still, market participants lowered their expectations for the peak of the tightening cycles. Central banks added a whopping 1,136 tonnes of gold worth some $70 billion to their stockpiles in 2022, by far the most of any year since 1967, the World Gold Council (WGC) said. The data underline a shift in attitudes to gold since the 1990s and 2000s, when central banks, particularly those in Western Europe that own a lot of bullion, sold hundreds of tonnes a year. India's gold consumption in 2022 fell 3% from a year earlier, as a rally in local prices to near-record highs curtailed bullion demand during the key December quarter, the World Gold Council (WGC) said. Lower consumption in the world's second-biggest gold buyer could weigh on global prices , but help in bringing down India's trade deficit and support the ailing rupee. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -5.1% to settle at 19164 while prices are down -190 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 57265 and below same could see a test of 56834 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 58487, a move above could see prices testing 59278.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 56834-59278.
* Gold dropped on profit booking as investors digest monetary policy decisions from major central banks.
* Both the BoE and the ECB delivered a 50bps rate hike and reinforced more hikes would follow.
* Central banks bought the most gold since 1967 last year, WGC says


Silver
Silver yesterday settled up by 0.52% at 70204 as investors held onto the view that the U.S. Federal Reserve would soon end its rate hiking cycle after it announced an expected 25-basis-point increase. The U.S. central bank scaled back to a quarter-percentage-point rate increase after a year of larger hikes. It said it had turned a corner in the fight against high inflation, but that "victory" would still require rates to be increased further and remain elevated at least through 2023. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week as the labor market remained resilient despite higher borrowing costs and mounting fears of a recession. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 183,000 for the week ended Jan. 28, the Labor Department said. India raised total taxes on silver imports 15% and on silver dore to 14.35%, the government said in a statement, in an effort to align the duty structure of the metal with gold. "I also propose to increase the import duty on silver dore, bars and articles to align them with that on gold and platinum," Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said as she presented the 2023/24 budget in parliament. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -11.38% to settle at 18003 while prices are up 363 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 69193 and below same could see a test of 68182 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 71992, a move above could see prices testing 73780.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 68182-73780.
* Silver rose as investors held onto the view that the U.S. Federal Reserve would soon end its rate hiking cycle
* India raised total taxes on silver imports 15% and on silver dore to 14.35%
* Private businesses in the US created 106K jobs in January of 2023, well below an upwardly revised 253K in December and market forecasts of 178K.


Crude oil
Crude oil yesterday settled up by 0.57% at 6317 as output from OPEC members declined by 60 thousand bpd to 29.12 million in January, amid lower output from Saudi Arabia and Libya. The latest EIA data showed that US crude inventories jumped by 4.14 million barrels last week, much more than market expectations of a 0.376 million barrel rise, adding to concerns about weakening demand in the world's top consumer. On the supply side, OPEC's crude production declined in January, as lower output from Saudi Arabia and Lybia was partly offset by gains across the rest of the cartel. An OPEC+ panel is likely to recommend sticking with the oil producer group's output policy when it meets, four OPEC+ delegates said, as it weighs prospects for higher Chinese demand against concerns about economic slowdown. OPEC oil output fell in January, as Iraqi exports declined and Nigerian output did not recover further while Gulf members maintained strong compliance with an OPEC+ deal on production cuts to support the market. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) pumped 28.87 million barrels per day (bpd), the survey found, down 50,000 bpd from December. In September, OPEC output hit its highest since 2020. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 1.53% to settle at 7516 while prices are up 36 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6219 and below same could see a test of 6122 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6375, a move above could see prices testing 6434.

Trading Ideas:

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6122-6434.
* Crude oil gained as output from OPEC members declined by 60 thousand bpd to 29.12 million in January,
* EIA data showed that US crude inventories jumped by 4.14 million barrels last week.
* OPEC+ seen sticking with oil output policy, delegates say


Natural gas
Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -0.19% at 211.4 on forecasts for the weather to turn mostly warmer than normal through mid February and on a smaller than usual storage withdrawal. Federal regulators approved Freeport's plan to start sending gas to one of the plant's three liquefaction trains, which turn gas into LNG. The energy market expects gas prices to rise once the plant starts pulling in large amounts of gas. Freeport can turn about 2.1 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into LNG each day. That is about 2% of total U.S. daily gas production. Gas prices were also supported by this week's roughly 3.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) drop in gas output to a one-month low of 93.9 bcfd as winter storms freeze oil and gas wells – known as freeze-offs – in several states, including Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico and Pennsylvania. Meteorologists forecast temperatures across much of the U.S. Lower 48 states would remain below normal through Feb. 4 before rising to mostly above-normal levels from Feb. 5 through at least Feb. 17. Those above normal levels, however, were lower than previously expected. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.99% to settle at 40033 while prices are down -0.4 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 204.6 and below same could see a test of 197.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 217.7, a move above could see prices testing 224.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 197.9-224.1.
* Natural gas dropped on forecasts for the weather to turn mostly warmer than normal through mid February
* Federal regulators approved Freeport's plan to start sending gas to one of the plant's three liquefaction trains, which turn gas into LNG.
* Prices were also supported by this week's roughly 3.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) drop in gas output to a one-month low of 93.9 bcfd



Copper
Copper yesterday settled down by -0.51% at 776.65 as the dollar rebounded and some investors locked in profits after prices gained boosted by further supply disruptions in Peru. Las Bambas copper mine, which accounts for 2% of the metal supply worldwide, would start a period of care and maintenance this week after operating at a reduced rate since December 7th as political unrest continues to disrupt production in Peru. At the same time, increased economic activity during China's New Year celebrations added to hopes of a demand rebound as the country abandons its zero-Covid policy. The metal was also benefiting from a weaker dollar after the US Federal Reserve delivered a small 25 bps rate hike and investors are confident that the tightening cycle will soon end. The world's refined copper market saw a 89,000 tonne deficit in November, compared with a surplus of 68,000 tonnes in October, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. World refined copper output in November was 2.2 million tonnes, while consumption was 2.3 million tonnes. For the first eleven months of 2022, the market was in a 384,000 tonne deficit compared with a 381,000 tonne deficit in the same period a year earlier, the ICSG said. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.02% to settle at 4056 while prices are down -3.95 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 771.4 and below same could see a test of 766.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 785.4, a move above could see prices testing 794.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 766.2-794.2.
* Copper prices slipped as the dollar rebounded and some investors locked in profits after prices gained boosted by further supply disruptions in Peru.
* Las Bambas copper mine, would start a period of care and maintenance after operating at a reduced rate.
* Increased economic activity during China's New Year celebrations added to hopes of a demand rebound as the country abandons its zero-Covid policy.


Zinc
Zinc yesterday settled up by 1.47% at 294.2 after the U.S. Federal Reserve cemented expectations that rapid interest rate rises will end soon, weakening the dollar. A rapid softening in the dollar and hopes of revived demand in top consumer China after it lifted coronavirus controls have driven prices. China's refined zinc output was 620,000 mt in December 2022, up 4% year-on-year. On the one hand, a large zinc smelter in north-west China completed its annual production target ahead of schedule and controlled its output in December. A smelter in north China was compelled to curtail its refined zinc production due to equipment failure. Despite the above-mentioned output decline, the refine zinc production in December still climbed thanks to the full-capacity operation of smelters in Shaanxi and concentrated production resumption of smelters in Sichuan. LME zinc inventories remain on the decline despite a slower drop, according to LME data. LME zinc stocks hit a multiple-year low and currently stand at 17,425 mt. SHFE zinc inventories grew for four weeks on end, and stood at 44,248 mt, with a weekly gain of 26.07%, the highest in two and a half months. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.61% to settle at 2328 while prices are up 4.25 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 290.4 and below same could see a test of 286.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 297.2, a move above could see prices testing 300.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 286.5-300.1.
* Zinc gains after the Fed cemented expectations that rapid interest rate rises will end soon, weakening the dollar.
* A rapid softening in the dollar and hopes of revived demand in China after it lifted coronavirus controls have driven prices.
* China's refined zinc output was 620,000 mt in December 2022, up 4% year-on-year.




Aluminium
Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.13% at 225.2 amid prospects of more robust demand and fears of supply shortages. China has been taking significant steps to boost its economy and end the strict coronavirus-induced regime, lifting the outlook for metal demand and overshadowing global recession concerns. On the supply side, last year's output cuts at key European smelters, including Alcoa's San Ciprian smelter and Hydro's plant in Slovakia, lent further optimism to bulls. Global inventories now stand at just 1.4 million tons, down 900,000 tons from a year ago and the lowest since 2002. Aluminum hit an all-time high of around 4,100 USD/T in March 2022 in the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The premiums for aluminium shipments to Japanese buyers for January to March were set at $85-$86 a tonne, down 13%-14% from the previous quarter, reflecting slack demand and high stocks. The figures are lower than the $99 per tonne paid in the October-December quarter and mark a fifth consecutive quarterly decline and the lowest premium since the July-September quarter of 2020. Japan is Asia's biggest aluminium importer and the premiums for primary metal shipments it agrees to pay each quarter over the benchmark London Metal Exchange (LME) cash price set the benchmark for the region. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.77% to settle at 4439 while prices are up 0.3 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 223.8 and below same could see a test of 222.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 227.2, a move above could see prices testing 229.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 222.2-229.
* Aluminum gains amid prospects of more robust demand and fears of supply shortages.
* China has been taking significant steps to boost its economy and end the strict coronavirus-induced regime, lifting the metal demand
* Global inventories now stand at just 1.4 million tons, down 900,000 tons from a year ago and the lowest since 2002.


Mentha oil
Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.31% at 1025.8 on improving export demand especially from China. Mentha exports during Apr-Nov 2022 has dropped by 18.10 percent at 1,485.25 tonnes as compared to 1,813.38 tonnes exported during Apr- 2022 2021. In the month of November 2022 around 236.22 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 141.82 tonnes in October 2022 showing a rise of 66.56%. In the month of November 2022 around 236.22 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 249.26 tonnes in November 2021 showing a drop of 5.23%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -6.4 Rupees to end at 1175.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.11% to settle at 943 while prices are up 3.2 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1019.9 and below same could see a test of 1014.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1032.7, a move above could see prices testing 1039.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1014.1-1039.7.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -6.4 Rupees to end at 1175.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices gained on improving export demand especially from China.
* Mentha exports during Apr-Nov 2022 has dropped by 18.10 percent at 1,485.25 tonnes
* In the month of November 2022 around 236.22 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 249.26 tonnes in November 2021



Turmeric
Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.25% at 7320 on profit booking after gains on reports that production is projected lower by 5 per cent in Telangana due to overall drop in acreage and 20 per cent in Karnataka due to rot disease. The country’s production is estimated at 13.14 lt against 13.29 lt with heavy rains waterlogging the fields and affecting the output. The area under cultivation is lower in most parts of the country, barring Maharashtra. However, there has been no major pest attack and hence, due to the rise in overall area under the crop, the production was expected to be 10 per cent higher. Turmeric exports during Apr-Nov 2022 has rose by 9.90 percent at 1,11,968.51 tonnes as compared to 1,01,882.03 tonnes exported during Apr-Nov 2021. In the month of November 2022 around 12,398.63 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 11,178.11 tonnes in October 2022 showing a rise of 10.92%. In the month of November 2022 around 12,398.63 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,255.64tonnes in November 2021 showing a rise of 1.17%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7216.45 Rupees dropped -38.8 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.94% to settle at 13420 while prices are down -18 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7256 and below same could see a test of 7194 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7362, a move above could see prices testing 7406.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7194-7406.
* Turmeric dropped on profit booking after gains on reports that production is projected lower by 5 per cent in Telangana and 20 per cent in Karnataka.
* The country’s production is estimated at 13.14 lt against 13.29 lt with heavy rains waterlogging the fields and affecting the output.
* The area under cultivation is lower in most parts of the country, barring Maharashtra.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7216.45 Rupees dropped -38.8 Rupees.



Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled up by 2.39% at 32985 amid reduced sowing in Gujarat, coupled with a tight supply, and climatic uncertainties. Projections of lower carryover stock and fears of sowing in key growing regions of Gujarat being affected. Sowing In Gujarat, dropped by nearly -8% with 274,995.00 hectares against sown area of 2021 which was 300,401.00 hectares. Prices gained to all time high amid higher demand for the fresh crop and supply tightness in the physical market. Good demand expected from China in December-January and Ramzan demand during January-February from gulf & other countries. Jeera exports during Apr-Nov 2022 has dropped by 17.40 percent at 133,250.24 tonnes as compared to 161,317.94 tonnes exported during Apr-Nov 2021. In the month of November 2022 around 11,235.11 tonnes jeera was exported as against 12,427.86 tonnes in October 2022 showing a drop of 9.60%. In the month of November 2022 around 11,235.11 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 10,838.83 tonnes in November 2021 showing a rise of 3.66%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 332.6 Rupees to end at 32199.95 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 3.4% to settle at 4287 while prices are up 770 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 32390 and below same could see a test of 31800 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 33330, a move above could see prices testing 33680.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 31800-33680.
* Jeera gained amid reduced sowing in Gujarat, coupled with a tight supply, and climatic uncertainties.
* Projections of lower carryover stock and fears of sowing in key growing regions of Gujarat being affected.
* Sowing in Gujarat, dropped by nearly -10% with 275,832.00 hectares against sown area of 2021-22 which was 307,135.00 hectares.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 332.6 Rupees to end at 32199.95 Rupees per 100 kg.

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