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Published on 19-04-2024 10:26 am

Conclusion:

The short-term trend of Nifty remains weak. There is a possibility of some more weakness down to 21800-21700 levels in the coming sessions before showing any upside bounce. Immediate resistance is at 22125.

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Published on 19-04-2024 10:26 am

Daily Technical View on Nifty

High volatility near the supports..

Observation: 

After showing weakness in the last three sessions, Nifty witnessed high volatility on Thursday and closed the day lower by 152 points. After opening with a positive note, the Nifty slipped into minor weakness in the early part of the session. Sharp upside recovery has emerged in the mid part of the session and steep sell off was seen from the day's high in the mid to later part of the session and Nifty finally closed near the lows. The high-low range of this roller-coaster move of the market was around 365 points.

A long bear candle was formed on the daily chart, that has negated the minor upside bounce of the market of previous session. Nifty is now placed at the edge of moving below the crucial support of 22000 mark (lower end of ascending channel and up trend line on the weekly chart).

The positive chart pattern like higher tops and bottoms is intact. As long as Nifty sustains above 21700 levels, the chances of upside bounce from the lows as per this pattern is likely.

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Published on 19-04-2024 10:20 am

Technical Outlook

* The Nifty started the session with a gap down action (22427-22519) and then failed to make any meaningful recovery, weighed down by IT and banking stocks. Price action formed a bear candle indicating extended profit taking as global volatility weighed on sentiments and breached previous week low after four week rally. On Tuesday we are heading for another gap down led by weak global cues and index is likely to breach immediate support of 22200 contrary to expectations. In near term, for any meaningful recovery, index needs to sustain above previous session high, else bias would remain negative

* Going ahead, we expect current decline to extend towards next key support of 21900, as a part of retracement of past one month rally, followed by a base formation amid stock specific action as earnings season accelerated. Meanwhile, life highs of 22800 to act as key resistance, being value of last week highs and upper band of rising channel

* Structurally, retracement of past month 1000 points rally would lead to higher base formation above rising 50-dema and lower band of the channel around 21900 levels. We believe short term consolidation would act as base for eventual target of 23400 by June 2024

* Our positive bias is further validated by following observations:

o Breadth: The current up move is backed by broad based participation as Percentage of stocks above 50days ema sustain above 60%

o Midcap index has already hit new highs indicating continuation of up move while small cap also expected to follow

* We have revised support base to 21900 as it is confluence of:

A) rising 50 days EMA placed at 22105

B) 80% retracement of current up move (21710-22775), at 22242

C) Lower band of rising channel encompassing past three month rally at 22000

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Published on 19-04-2024 10:19 am

Nifty : 22272

Technical Outlook

Day that was… Nifty declined for second session led by global volatility on Monday as IT, banking stocks remained under pressure. Oil&gas, power, metal stocks relatively outperformed. Index closed at 22272, down 246 points or 1.1%

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Published on 19-04-2024 10:13 am

Nifty

The index witnessed a perfect pullback within the ongoing bearish trend. The anticipated hurdle around 22320 acted well as a supply zone as selling pressure intensified once the index broke the 22200 level. The immediate anticipated support zone around 21800 (Weekly Channel Support) followed by 21766 (20 WEMA) would be important going forward to gauge further weakness. Both trend strength indicators are complimenting the bearish move to continue further as the ADX is trending higher confidently above its 30 level while RSI is yet to hit its oversold zone. Given that the index is likely to revisit its weekly channel pattern support base at 21800, it is best to exercise caution when pursuing any pullback moves or to discontinue the buy on declines strategy until a reversal formation is evident on its weekly scale. For the day in case the index starts the day itself around 21766 it is likely to witness an exhaustion formation around 21600 itself which may result into a meaning full pullback within the bearish trend.

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