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Published on 25-04-2024 11:19 am

Market Roundup 

The Indian rupee continued its northbound journey for the fourth day in the trot following lower crude oil prices and stronger Asian currencies. The rupee is likely to follow its peers and may open slightly higher. The forward markets suggestspot USDINR could open around 83.30 fromthe previous close of 83.32.

USDINR could open around 83.30 fromthe previous close of 83.32. On Wednesday, spot USDINR fell by 2 paise to 83.32. The pair has been steadily heading lower amid a lack of buying interest in the US dollar and a long unwinding of the crowded trade. The pair has support at 83.20 and resistance at 83.50.

The yen slid to a fresh 34-year low against a mixed greenback as supply and inflation concerns weighed on Treasury prices, lifting yields

The Dollar Spot Index trading flat as the Treasury 10-year note yield adds five basis points to 4.65%. The dollar is expected to see strong buying interest at month-end by global fund managersre-balancing their portfolios.

Asian equity markets dropped after Meta Platforms Inc.’s disappointing outlook raised concern about whether the industry that has powered the bull market in equities has run too far. The S&P 500 wavered and was little changed in late trading, capped by Gaza tensions. Reports said Israel has conducted preparations to take Rafah.

The BOJ is forecast to keep its interest rate settings unchanged Friday, while the currency’s plunge makes it more likely the bank will tone down its stance on keeping policy easy.

Elsewhere, oil held a modest decline, with a risk-off tone in broader markets countering a drawdown inUS stockpiles.

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Published on 25-04-2024 11:11 am

Euro and Pound Outlook

* Euro inched lower by 0.02% yesterday amid firm dollar. However, sharp downside was cushioned on improved economic data from euro zone and hawkish comments from ECB Governing Council member Nagel. German April IFO business climate index rose more than expected to an 11-month high. For today, EURUSD is likely to hold the support near 1.0690 level (10- Day EMA) and rise towards 1.0730 levels (20-Day EMA) amid soft dollar and divergence in monetary policy between Fed and ECB. EURINR April is likely to rise towards 89.40 levels as long as it trades above 88.90 levels.

* Pound is expected to find the floor near 1.2430 level and rise towards 1.2505 level (20-Day EMA) amid weakness in dollar. Meanwhile, expectation of disappointing economic data from Britain may prevent sharp upside in pair. Additionally, BoE officials suggested that central bank is more confident that price pressure is ebbing, indicating interest rate cuts. GBPINR April is likely to rise further towards 104.00 level (10- Day EMA) as long as it stays above 103.50 levels

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Published on 25-04-2024 11:08 am

Currency Outlook

Rupee Outlook

* Rupee appreciated marginally yesterday amid soft dollar, decline in crude oil prices and positive domestic market sentiments. However, sharp gains were prevented amid dollar demand from importers.

* Rupee is likely to appreciate today amid soft dollar and decline in crude oil prices. Dollar is moving south as fresh data showed new orders for key US manufactured capital goods increased moderately in March but the data for the prior month was revised lower. Meanwhile, sharp gains may be prevented as all eyes will be on slew of economic data from US to get cues on the potential timeline of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. As per CME FedWatch tool market expects easing cycle to start from September. USDINR April likely to slip towards 83.20 level (89-Day EMA) as long as it stays below 83.40 level (10-Day EMA).

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Published on 25-04-2024 11:07 am

JPYINR

Observations 

JPYINR trading range for the day is 53.69-53.95.

JPY remained in range as indicated that it is in no rush in terms of policy normalization

The au Jibun Bank flash Japan Services PMI increased to 54.6 in April from a final 54.1 in the previous month

The au Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing PMI increased to 49.9 in April from 48.2 in the previous month

BUY JPYINR APR @ 53.7 SL 53.5 TGT 53.9-54.1.

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Published on 25-04-2024 11:06 am

GBPINR

Observation

GBPINR trading range for the day is 206.6-207.76.

GBP gains as investors digested solid UK PMI data and assessed the potential impact on monetary policy trajectory.

The latest survey revealed that British business activity expanded in April by the most since May 2023.

Public sector net borrowing, in the UK decreased to £11.9 billion in March 2024 compared to £16.6 billion in the corresponding period last year.

BUY GBPINR APR @ 103.2 SL 103 TGT 103.5-103.8.

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