The new tariff order from Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) recommends a tectonic shift in the TV distribution space as it gives choice to consumers to select channels on a-la-carte basis without being burdened by high costs. This is likely to challenge the status quo and most players are worried that this will change the way they package and also have an impact on business model and
We met four microfinance companies (Satin Creditcare, SV Creditline, Capital Trust, Fusion) that have a large presence in North India (30-35% exposure), especially western Uttar Pradesh, as well as a smaller footprint in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra. In this report, we study the fallout of demonetisation and pre-poll political maneuvering on these region-specific portfolios. Our interactions
We maintain our positive view on Indian Construction sector as we believe that order inflows momentum to continue with the environment turning more conducive for execution of projects. Increase in investments towards Infra focused sectors (like Roads/Highways, Urban Development, Railways, Irrigation) would continue to drive order inflows for the companies. Also, the measures taken by Govt. (lik
We expect our telecom universe to report mixed QoQ wireless revenue in Q3FY17 due to slower data growth as we build in the full-quarter impact of R-Jio’s introductory offer. Margins are likely to remain range-bound despite seasonal tailwinds, given continued 4G rollouts and slower data growth. For Bharti-Africa, we expect a more stable performance as the currency has steadied. TCOM will h
Q3FY17 performance of incumbent telcos stands to be severely impacted by demonetisation and Reliance Jio’s (RJio) free services. Though telcos were allowed to accept old Rs500 notes (from Nov 25 to Dec 15), we believe the revenue recognition of this would be in Q4FY17 and likely limited. RJio extended its free offer till Mar’17, which prolongs the impact on incumbent operators&rsquo
* Favorable demographics are likely to induce structural tailwinds for the Indian dairy industry - a) shift from unorganized to organized market and b) upgradation to value added dairy products (VADP) from conventional product formats.
* Rising share of organized products: The organized segment is expected to grow at a CAGR of 19.5% over 2015-20, enhancing its share i
Shares of logistics companies were in focus and trading higher by up to 7 per cent on the NSE in early morning trade in an otherwise weak market ahead of the GST Council meet today. Gati share price, Patel Integrated share price, Snowman Logistics share price, TCI share price, Allcargo share price, Sical Logistics share price, Gateway Distriparks share price and VRL Logistics share price were s
* While, non-ferrous metals witnessed price corrections on an average in the month of December’16, steel price increased moderately by 2.6% holding to the current price level of US$495/tn. Steel raw material prices fell down sharply.
* Hard coking coal fell down sharply by 27% on a MoM basis to settle at US$226/tn. Iron
* We expect modest revenue growth for our Tier I coverage in a seasonally weak quarter with sequential cross currency headwinds marring the reported revenue performance further. HCL Tech and TechM will lead on sequential revenue growth amongst Tier I’s
* Persistent expected to have a strong sequential revenue growth amongst Tier II techs supported by seasonal strength in IBM bus
Global steel prices, despite soft demand, held up in 2016 owing to a weaker Yuan, trade barriers and cost-push factors. For 2017, the onus of driving incremental steel demand would be on the US, India and Japan, given the likely lower demand from China. Back home, imminent price hikes would protect margins and also give iron-ore miners leeway to increase prices. Overall, China-led headwinds and
NIFTY PSU BANK Current Close: 2982.00 Trend : Negative
* NIFTY PSU BANK is the only sectoral index which has closed in a negative territory, down by 0.31% at 2982.00, as against an up move of 2.51% in benchmark NIFTY 50.
* The Sector had made a recent swing high @ 3503.90 a few weeks
NIFTY FMCG Current Close: 20754.10 Trend : Positive
* NIFTY FMCG is the most outperforming sectoral index, as it has closed up sharply by around 5.93% at 20754.10, as against an up move of 2.51% in benchmark NIFTY 50.
* In the month of Sept. 2016, the Sector created an All Time High
Industrial credit slowed across sub-sectors in Nov’16, with loans to micro, small and medium enterprises reporting the biggest decline. Services grew at a slower pace MoM but performed relatively better than industries. We believe the ill effects of demonetisation on consumer durable, vehicle and home loans will be felt in Q4FY17, which is likely to put pressure on overall credit. Ex-reta
RBI’s monthly sectoral credit deployment data for Nov’16 continues to show weak credit offtake further propelled by demonetisation. Non‐food credit growth came off to 4.8% YoY/‐1.6% QoQ (also growth has higher impact because data reported is for 25days compared to 30days of previous year). Growth has come‐off from all segments with industry continuing to remain weak, while ser
Q3 is seasonally weak due to the holiday season and furloughs, and we expect a muted quarter for our IT universe. Large-caps are likely to report tepid USD revenue growth of -0.4% to +2% QoQ. Mid-caps too could see a weaker quarter than the commentary given post-Q2. While growth expectations from the sector have been reset down to an extent, a revenueled upgrade cycle must fire up for any P/E r
Agri Input & Chemicals - Agri Digest – Sowing progressing well but lower pest attacks a concern - Emkay
* Despite the demonetization of Rs500/1000 currency notes by the government causing an intermediate cash crunch among farmers, the Rabi sowing this season has been proceeding unabated (as of 23rd December 2016). Rabi acreage so far is 6% higher than at this point last year and is 102% of normal sowing area.
* Adequate availability of ground water and high moisture content with overall
Generation increased 4.4% YoY in November 2016 driven by strong growth across the coal and nuclear segment.
The overall industry PLF declined however declined marginally by 202 bps YoY to 41.4%. PLF declined across Hydro and Gas segment, but was up across the Nuclear segment. PLF across the Coal segment was largely flat dur
We expect Q3FY17 to witness typical weak seasonality. The quarter is also unlikely to provide any material evidence towards an improving second derivative of growth. That said, we do not envisage meaningful negative surprises as well (beyond what we already know) - in terms of vertical and client specific issues, incremental aggression in pricing, erosion in budgets, and delays in pipeline buil
Building Material - Reality bites in December after November sales see limited demonetisation impact - ICICI Sec
We attended the ACETECH Exhibition 2016 in Delhi last week which showcased a wide spectrum of building material companies exhibiting their range of products. We also made ground visits and interacted with the managements of listed and unlisted companies and their channel partners to sense the impact of demonetisation on the building material categories viz. ceramic tiles, sanitaryware, wood pan
December 2016 would be the first full month to witness the impact of demonetisation (announced on November 8, 2016). We expect December automotive sales to be worse than November 2016, as the OEMs resort to inventory liquidation (especially in 2W and PV segments) during the month. 2W universe sales are likely to decline by 12% YoY in December as against a 7% YoY drop in November. The PV univers
* Cement sales have been adversely impacted post the demonetization announcement by the Central government. Our channel checks indicate demand decline of 30-40% in the trade segment in most parts of the company which would impact industry despatches.
* Cement demand is expected to decline by 0.5% YoY in FY17 against our earlier estimate of growth of 5.5% YoY. Cement prices have come d
* Coal import in India stood at 16.28mt in Nov’2016 down by 9% both YoY and MoM. Coking coal import fell by 17% YoY and 125% QoQ to 3.55 mt whereas import of noncoking coal came in at 10.97 mt (-12%/-/7% YoY/QoQ).
* International coking coal prices remained high at US$314/t (+4.56% MoM) whereas non coking coal price momentum slowed down with 4.4% and 7.3% decline in Indonesia (5
NIFTY PSU BANK Current Close: 2991.30 Trend : Negative
* NIFTY PSU BANK is the most underperforming sectoral indices, as it closed down by around 5.61% at 2991.30, as against a down move of 1.89% in benchmark NIFTY 50.
* The Sector had made a recent swing high @ 3503.90, a few
NIFTY ENERGY Current Close: 10062.10 Trend : Positive
* NIFTY ENERGY is one of the relatively outperforming sectoral indices, as it closed down marginally by around 0.18% at 10062.10, as against a down move of 1.89% in benchmark NIFTY 50.
* In the month of Oct 2016, the Sector
* Indian Major Ports handled 54.1 mn tons in the month of November 2016, clocking a growth of 10.3% YoY however declined 1% MoM. YoY growth was led by POL (+10.8% YoY), iron ore (+281.4% YoY) and others category (+23% YoY) offset by decline in coal (- 17.8% YoY) and other liquids (-8.1% YoY)
* New Mangalore (+50% Y