Sector Report : Nifty PVT Bank, Pharma, PSU Bank and FMCG - GEPL

NIFTY PVT BANK

Observation

* The sector is in medium to long term Bullish orbit.

* Higher Top Higher Bottom formation since last 9 months.

* Last week, the sector made a 52 week high of 14162.45 and also maintained its Bullish formation which is a positive sign for the coming days.

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25/09/2017 5:27:36 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Wholesale limping back to normalcy; companies stepping up efforts on direct reach - Kotak Sec

Observations: field trip to Patna.

We witnessed a healthy level of in-market activity on our recent trip to Patna and nearby suburban and rural markets with the much-disrupted wholesale distribution channel showing signs of adjusting to the new normal. That GST is procedurally exhausting was a common feedback we heard. Select interesting observations

25/09/2017 5:03:30 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Cement Sector Update North companies better placed for 2HFY18 - Motilal Oswal

North companies better placed for 2HFY18

All-India average cement prices lower by 5% QoQ

* Cement prices were down marginally by 1% MoM in the first half of September 2017, led by price weakness in the north region on account of seasonally weak demand.

* All-India average cement prices for 2QFY18 declined 5% QoQ, l

25/09/2017 4:39:23 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Power demand: improved by 5.3% yoy in August 2017 - Kotak Sec

* Power demand: improved by 5.3% yoy in August 2017, North sees strong demand improvement

All-India power demand grew by 5.3% yoy growth in August 2017 (4.7% YTD), a significant improvement over the 2.5% yoy growth clocked in FY2017. Uttar Pradesh accounting for 11% of the overall demand continues to report strong improvement—22.4% yoy in August

23/09/2017 11:09:36 AM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Power Sector Update - Kotak Sec

September spikes.

The recent spike in merchant tariff rates on the exchange above ₹5/kwh did surprise some, who reviewed their stance on the demand-supply dynamics. However, we do note a combination of a receding monsoon, coal plants resuming operations from maintenance shutdowns and spike in demand does lead to tariff spikes more often than not in S

22/09/2017 5:03:06 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Housing for all government seeks higher participation from private sector - Kotak Sec

Housing for all—government seeks higher participation from private sector.

To encourage participation from private sector, the central government announced more incentives for its housing for all initiative. Among other things, up to `0.25 mn per unit will now be paid to construct houses under PMAY, as it plans to release government land parcels

22/09/2017 4:58:30 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Thoughts on TRAI`s arguments underlying the glide to BAK - Kotak Sec

Thoughts on TRAI’s arguments underlying the glide to BAK

. We find some of the arguments that the regulator has presented in support of the announced immediate cut in MTR and eventual move to a bill-and-keep (BAK) regime debatable. To be sure, we are not taking a position for or against BAK; we are only presenting our thoughts on a few of TRAI&rs

22/09/2017 4:54:12 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Domestic passengers increase 15.7% in August - Motilal Oswal

Domestic passengers increase 15.7% in August

ASK/RPK growth for IndiGo remains muted due to engine issues

* Domestic air passengers in India grew 15.7% YoY to 9.7m in August 2017 (v/s +12.5% YoY in July 2017). Passenger growth has been in double-digits for the last 37 months.

* Domestic ASK growth in August was 14

21/09/2017 5:52:30 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
IUC impact: Cutting Bharti/Idea`s EBITDA estimates - Motilal Oswal

IUC impact: Cutting Bharti/Idea’s EBITDA estimates

RJio’s EBITDA raised by 43% for FY19E

Post the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India’s (TRAI) cut in interconnect usage charge (IUC) to INR0.06/min from INR0.14/min, we have revised our model estimates and target price for Bharti, Idea and RJio.

*

21/09/2017 5:47:42 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Telecom Sector Update Cut in IUC; Final nail in the coffin - Emkay

Cut in IUC; Final nail in the coffin

* TRAI has recommended cut in Interconnection Usage Charges (IUC) to Re0.06/min from 1st Oct’17 vs Re0.14/min currently, with complete elimination from 1st Jan’20. The recommendation comes when industry is under financial stress. It would benefit Jio in a big way and give some breather to other small ope

21/09/2017 3:53:42 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
CEO – ‘Changed’ Executive Officer - Emkay

CEO – ‘Changed’ Executive Officer

* IT Services companies have seen a massive change in the CEO/leadership in the last 3 years. The strategy adopted by boards are diverse, with 6 out of 9 new CEO candidates being external, indicating the desperate need for transformation due to the rapidly altering business scenario.

* We be

20/09/2017 5:06:35 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Cement Sector Update - Kotak Sec

Volume scramble.

A subdued demand environment could put to risk the aggressive ramp-up plans of cement players that have acquired over 42 mtpa of cement capacities over the past two years. Operating at low utilizations could lead to earnings dilution under current cost-realization parameters, while aggressive market share gains could hamper pricing di

20/09/2017 4:14:53 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Telecom Sector Update Implications of MTR cut go beyond immediate EBITDA hit - Kotak Sec

Implications of MTR cut go beyond immediate EBITDA hit.

TRAI has announced a cut in mobile termination rate to 6 paise/min (from the current 14 paise) effective October 1, 2017 and to zero effective January 1, 2020. Direct impact is a 3-5% hit on FY2018E, 6-10% hit on FY2019E and 7-12% hit on FY2020E EBITDA for the incumbents, lowest on Bharti and high

20/09/2017 4:10:03 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Pharma Sector Update IPM secondary sales growth up marginally - Motilal Oswal

IPM secondary sales growth up marginally

* Indian pharmaceutical market (IPM) secondary sales bounced back in August 2017 after declining in July. IPM grew 2.4% YoY in August, and 1.7% for the three-month period, June-August 2017.

* After a 0.4% decline in volume in the May-July 2017 quarter, the industry witnessed a further 0.7% decline in t

20/09/2017 3:55:36 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Merchant power price spike a nine-day wonder - Motilal Oswal

Merchant power price spike – a nine-day wonder

Peak load growing faster than energy demand in recent months

* Power exchange (IEX) prices have doubled from the average of last two years to more than INR5/kWh in the recent weeks. Interestingly, there is sharper increase in evening peak prices compared to the rest-of-day

20/09/2017 3:49:31 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Aviation Sector Update Traffic growth gaining traction before festive season - ICICI Sec

Traffic growth gaining traction before festive season

The August 2017 air traffic data that we have so far (preliminary report) which has only the passenger and PLF numbers shows a passenger growth ~16% in August. We had been pointing to the fact that the inherent fundamental systemic demand has remained strong despite the lower passenger growth that w

20/09/2017 9:30:07 AM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
FMCG Sector Update On the ground reconnaissance - ICICI Sec

On the ground reconnaissance

We spoke to channel partners across pan-India to understand on-ground situation post rollout of GST. As expected, the feedback was mixed but we gather 3 common points: 1) Re-allocation of capital is underway, 2) trade is adjusting to changing dynamics, and 3) organised food companies are witnessing better growth, while non-

20/09/2017 9:27:21 AM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Sector Report : Nifty Media, Bank and FMCG - GEPL

Observation

* The sector maintained Higher Top Higher Bottom formation since last 5 weeks.

* On Daily chart, the sector just breached the upper band of the descending channel pattern forming since last 5 months which is a positive sign for the coming days.

* We have seen that the medium term 13 WMA (3038) & 34 WMA (3009) expone

19/09/2017 5:27:24 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Banking Sector Update - Kotak Sec

Fresh starts; different paths.

Early readings into the progress of SFBs suggest a few different paths taken (1) High interest rate dominates differentiation on liabilities but there is a mix in preference between savings and term deposits. (2) Branch opening has taken a slow pace given the impairments in MFI portfolio. (3) Steps being taken to move ou

19/09/2017 3:33:42 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Oil And Gas Sector Update OMCs finally on the yellow brick road - Motilal Oswal

OMCs finally on the yellow brick road*

Improving cash flows for IOCL – our top pick among the OMCs

* The refining glut is expected to worsen in the longer term, led by capacity expansion, rising distillate yields, increasing mileage per gallon, and growing use of greener fuels. However, refining margins have been stro

19/09/2017 3:23:40 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Domestic long product prices weaken; Alumina continues to rise - Motilal Oswal

Domestic long product prices weaken; Alumina continues to rise

* Indian steel: Long product (TMT Mumbai) prices were up ~2% WoW. Sponge iron prices were up ~5% WoW, following ~4% increase last week. Domestic scrap prices were up ~3% WoW. Domestic iron ore and pellet prices were unchanged. Domestic HRC prices were up ~4% WoW, while import HRC price off

19/09/2017 12:20:30 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Insurance Sector Update Strong for most players - Kotak Sec

Strong for most players.

Overall business momentum remained robust with 29% growth in private sector individual APE in August 2017. Most large players reported strong performance at 20-30% growth, the only exception being ICICI Life which is moderating on a high base. LIC seems the only player that has failed to gain traction. Quarterly trends suggest

18/09/2017 4:58:59 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Paint Sector Update TiO2 price softens from Jun 17 peak - ICICI Sec

Titanium dioxide (TiO2), one of the key raw materials in manufacturing paints, is witnessing a gradual price decrease. In Aug’17, TiO2 prices cooled down to an average of Rs244/kg, down 6.7% sequentially. TiO2 price was the highest in Jun’17 at ~Rs280/kg as it trended upward after closing FY17 at ~Rs250/kg. Prices had shot up due to supply disruptions and higher demand. While Vinyl

18/09/2017 12:08:14 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
The curious case of the Indian lending sector - Kotak Sec

The curious case of the Indian lending sector, Part 2.

We like the long runway of growth in retail loans for the smart private banks and NBFCs although (1) high extant market shares of private lenders in retail loans and (2) likely higher competition among private banks and NBFCs may curb NIMs and RoEs. The room for disappointment versus high ‘em

15/09/2017 4:44:33 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news