India NBFCs - Banks to LAP up market share - RCML

Discussions about the LAP market with regional heads of select NBFCs and direct sales agents across India suggest: (1) balance transfers from NBFCs to banks have increased due to the reduction in lending rates, (2) banks could gain market share in LAP as demonetisation has led to higher customer income disclosure, and (3) loan repayments could take a hit from Jan’17, leading to a spike in

12/01/2017 2:34:14 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
FMCG - Demonetisation Steals the Show...Literally! - Reliance Sec

Demonetisation has had a major impact on performance of the consumer companies in 3QFY17E. We expect single-digit fall in revenues in the quarter on the back of instability in the system marked by cash crunch following demonetisation drive. However, we expect the impact on net profit to be limited as the companies have recalibrated their A&P and other expenses in wake of sharp decline in sa

12/01/2017 2:20:40 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
India PharmaScope - Seasonality, currency ban cramp Dec sales - RCML

As per AIOCD AWACS, the Indian Pharmaceutical Market (IPM) grew at a muted 7.2% YoY in Dec’16 (5.8% ex-anti-diabetic and cardiac sales), half of last month’s 15.3% run-rate. December is a seasonally weak month and growth was further dented by demonetisation. Pricing remained under pressure while volume growth fell sharply to 1.8% from November’s 9.6%. Therapy-wise, antidiabeti

12/01/2017 12:13:21 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Ports - The December PORTfolio - Emkay Global

* Major Indian ports handled 57.1mn tons of freight in the month of December 2016, clocking a growth of 13.7% YoY and 5.6% MoM. YoY growth was led by POL (+14.1% YoY), iron ore (+237.5% YoY) and others category (+80.4% YoY). Growth was weighed down by a decline in coal (-12.6% YoY), fertilizer (-37.6% YoY) and other liquids (-32.2% YoY)

* New Mangalore (+24.6% YoY), Mormugao (+63.9% Y

11/01/2017 6:03:32 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Cement Sector - A Dismal Quarter on Unexpected Demonetization - Reliance Sec

3QFY17E Sector Preview

An insipid demand scenario marked by impact of currency crunch following demonetization drive, hardening of fuel prices and higher fixed costs will take a toll on 3QFY17 earnings of the cement companies. Barring Southern companies, Shree Cement & Mangalam Cement, all other cement companies under our coverage are likely to re

11/01/2017 5:31:05 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
India Metals and Mining - Q3 Preview: NMDC, HZ to outperform - RCML

We expect Q3FY17 non-ferrous earnings to be stronger than the ferrous sector as the latter has been hit by rising RM costs. NMDC/HZ are likely to outperform with EBITDA growth of 59%/34% QoQ, helped by rising ore and zinc prices. While we remain cautious on ferrous players, the decline in profitability in the subsequent quarter may be less than envisaged earlier due to a softening of coking coa

11/01/2017 5:24:53 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Nifty PSU Bank has immediate support placed at 2840 levels - GEPL

NIFTY PSU BANK   Current Close: 2969.85   Trend : Negative

Observation

* NIFTY PSU BANK is one of the few sectoral index which has closed in a negative territory, down by 0.41% at 2969.85, as against an up move of 0.71% in benchmark NIFTY 50.

* The Sector made a recent swing high @ 3503.90 a few weeks bac

11/01/2017 3:21:29 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
India Agrochemicals - On fertile ground - RCML

India’s agrochemicals sector, riding on its inherent structural drivers and strong entry barriers, is set to grow at a 12% CAGR over FY16-FY19E. Besides, products worth US$ 6.3bn would go off-patent by 2020, offering an attractive opportunity for generic players. While stricter regulations could cap return ratios, we are fundamentally positive on the sector and like Dhanuka Agritech for i

11/01/2017 3:11:10 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Nifty Auto holds Bullish momentum - GEPL

NIFTY AUTO    Current Close: 9506.65    Trend : Positive

Observation

* NIFTY AUTO is one of the outperforming sectoral indices, as it has closed up sharply by around 3.99% at 9506.65, as against an up move of 0.71% in benchmark NIFTY 50.

* In the month of Sept. 2016, the Sector created an All Tim

11/01/2017 2:52:53 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
India Energy - OMC marketing margins may have peaked - RCML

OMCs’ marketing margins on retail fuel sales look to have peaked

given the government-imposed 0.75% discount on cashless fuel sales, potential fee burden of ~1% on card transactions and competition from private players offering discounts. While OMCs will eventually pass on these charges to consumers, the scope for margin expansion in FY18 has re

11/01/2017 12:31:40 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Auto Sector Update - Q3FY2017 earnings preview - Sharekhan

Q3FY2017 result expectations

Demonetisation woes to dent revenue growth in Q3FY2017:

After several quarters of double-digit topline growth, Sharekhan’s Automobile universe’s (ex-TAMO) revenue growth is expected to slow to 5% YoY in Q3FY2017, primarily led by slowdown in volumes. The demonetisatio

11/01/2017 12:22:56 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Cement Monthly Sector Update - Realizations Softened on Insipid Demand - Reliance Sec

Demand environment continued to remain dismal in Dec’16 led by impact of demonetization, which affected trade segment sales in most pockets. However, price cut (-2.2% m-o-m) undertaken by the industry aided monthly demand to improve as most companies saw a monthly volume uptick in the range of ~5-15%. Notably, there has been a pickup in the construction of selected real estate projects as

11/01/2017 12:18:16 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Banking and NBFC - Sector Update - Q3FY2017 earnings preview - Sharekhan

Q3FY2017 result expectations

Key developments:

1) The falling G-Sec yields (touched a low of 6.187%, down 60BPS during Q3FY2017); 2) Redemption of FCNR deposits (outflow of $7.14 billion from April-October 2017), and overall improving outlook for demand. However, the Government’s demonetisation drive cer

11/01/2017 12:01:25 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Oil & Gas Sector - Monthly round up – Jan’17 - Emkay Global

* Crude oil prices appreciated:

Brent crude oil jumped up by 18% MoM to reach $53/bbl by end of December’16 as OPEC members reached a deal to cut production by $1.2mbpd. This deal is expected to bring back balance in the oil market. Light-Heavy (L-H) differential was up by $0.3/bbl MoM to $3.2/bbl.

 

* Low

11/01/2017 11:55:17 AM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
India Housing Finance - Down and out – REPCO our only pick - RCML

With demonetisation set to stifle growth in India’s cash-heavy real estate market, we expect HFCs to bear the brunt as (1) poor demand shrinks loan growth to 12% (FY16-FY19E) vs. 19% earlier, (2) margin levers fade as high-yield products turn risky and competition from banks rises, and (3) stress emerges on LAP/developer loans due to property price corrections. REPCO is our only pick (nic

11/01/2017 9:55:02 AM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Cement Sector - A flat quarter - ICICI Sec

Q3FY17E volume, average realisations, costs and EBITDA/te for cement companies under our coverage are expected to be broadly flat YoY; though region-wise and hence company-wise trends could vary significantly. Volume growth in the South (+12% YoY on a low base) led by better demand in Andhra Pradesh / Telangana is expected to offset volume decline in the North / West regions. Similarly, higher

10/01/2017 3:45:21 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Metals Sector - Q3FY17: Non-ferrous pack to outperform - ICICI Sec

Q3FY17 will clearly be better for non-ferrous plays. Steel demand growth has been at 4-6% Y-Y. Steel companies will have to handle steeper RM costs starting Q3FY17, with average spot coking coal prices doubling and iron ore prices having increased by 20% between Q2FY17 and Q3FY17. Average steel price hike of Rs3,500 taken during the quarter will not be enough to offset this higher cost profile

10/01/2017 3:26:38 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Cement - Sector Update - Q3FY2017 earnings preview - Sharekhan

Q3FY2017 result expectations

Weak demand, pricing pressure and change in sales mix to affect topline:

We expect the Q3FY2017 revenue of the Cement companies under our coverage (ex-Grasim) to decline by 0.9% YoY (down 14.1% QoQ), largely affected by lower demand on account of demonetisation (trade segment hit

10/01/2017 11:54:10 AM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Oil & Gas - Sector Update - Q3FY2017 earnings preview - Sharekhan

Q3FY2017 result expectations

Sharp uptick in GRM and strong MS/HSD volume growth to drive Q3FY2017 earnings for OMCs:

The benchmark Singapore GRM increased by 32.1% to $6.7/bbl in Q3FY2017, led by improvement in crack spread - Gasoline (+ $3.7/bbl QoQ), Gasoil (+ $1.6/bbl QoQ) and Jet Kerosene (+ $1.7/bbl QoQ). More

10/01/2017 11:48:48 AM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
India Energy - Q3 Preview: A stellar quarter…yet again! - RCML

 Q3FY17 could prove to be another stellar quarter for oil & gas companies, given the improvement in macro parameters (higher oil prices, benchmark GRMs). OMCs could see significant inventory gains, resulting in GRM outperformance. RIL’s earnings are likely to surprise yet again, driven by improving petchem spreads and GRMs. Among gas utilities, GAIL should see the highest improve

9/01/2017 3:44:59 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
India Consumer - Q3 Preview: Demonetization blues - RCML

Most companies in the RCML consumer universe saw tepid demand growth in Q3FY17 due to weak consumer offtake, further hit post demonetisation. We expect aggregate sales/adj. PAT to decline 0.9%/3.7% YoY in Q3, along with a 75bps EBITDA margin contraction. Emerging headwinds from input cost inflation could weigh down earnings growth further. We reiterate our negative stance on the sector.

9/01/2017 3:42:08 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
India Banks - Q3 Preview: Difficult to call; guidance keenly awaited - RCML

Q3FY17 is proving difficult to predict as demonetisation has thrown up several moving parts. We expect a sharp drop in loan growth, but small-to-midsized banks (YES, IIB) should fare relatively better. Margins are likely to decline as benefits of the CASA influx will be offset by pressure on yields. The pace of slippages should reduce, but ageing NPAs would keep credit costs high. We expect fee

9/01/2017 3:38:16 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Banking & Housing Finance - Excess liquidity forces banks toward aggressive rate cuts - Angel Broking

Since Banks adopted MCLR, there had been a rate cut of 30 bps by SBI (from April 16-Dec16). However, with deluge of deposits at one hand and no corresponding demand for loans in the system, banks were forced to park the excess money in bond markets, which ideally would earn much lower rates than the lending rates in the current environment. In order to overcome the situation, banks have started

7/01/2017 11:28:44 AM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Oil & Gas Sector - A quarter of sunshine for OMCs - Motilal Oswal

GRMs up, Inventory gains to help too

* Singapore complex GRM increased sequentially from USD5.1/bbl in 2QFY17 to USD6.7/bbl in 3QFY17. However, it was lower than USD7.8/bbl in 3QFY16. Rise in crude oil prices is also expected to help with inventory gains.

* While rise in oil prices would be beneficial for upstream companies, we expect operat

6/01/2017 3:09:06 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news