India Automobiles: Model Watch - 2Ws, UVs kick off FY17 with a bang - Religare Capital Markets Ltd

2Ws, UVs kick off FY17 with a bang

* New launches have propelled growth across 2Ws and UVs in Apr’16. 2W sales were up 21% YoY helped by 16%/36% YoY growth in motorcycles/scooters. Hero has gained 150bps market share in scooters to 17.8% and its motorcycle share remains above 50%. UVs grew 43% YoY with sales of sub-4.4m SUVs doubling to 45.9

5/23/2016 2:23:13 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Agriculture Input & Chemicals - Agriculture Digest – Current weather patterns reaffirm bountiful rains - Emkay

Agri Digest – Current weather patterns reaffirm bountiful rains

* As per IMD’s latest update on 15th May 2016, the onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala is expected to be slightly delayed by a week and is expected to hit by 7th June from earlier prediction of 1st June

* Delay in monsoon by 5-7 days from its typical arrival d

5/23/2016 1:05:45 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Ceramics Tiles - Structural and sustainable play - ICICISecurities

The Indian ceramic tiles sector witnessed strong traction over FY08-FY14 with the industry growing at 15-18% CAGR, led particularly by:

1) new construction demand,

2) rising cost of real estate making tiles more affordable,

3) new technologies in ceramic and vitrified tiles segment,

4) imposition of anti-dumping du

5/23/2016 12:56:33 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Construction & Infrastructure - InfraTrack – May’16 - Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd

Callout Key trends observed during the month with respect to project tenders, awards, port traffic, NHAI and PGCIL awards

* Total value of tenders issued in April 2016 stood at Rs526 bn (+34.3% YoY,) due to the roadways (+68.7% YoY, accounts for 46% of the total tenders issued in April 2016). Tendering increased in the water supply segment (+211.2

5/23/2016 11:56:45 AM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Roads and Highways - Roadmap set; all eyes on execution - ICICISecurities

We recently met with senior officials at the National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) in New Delhi. Following are the key highlights of the meeting:

FY16 targets largely achieved:

In FY16, NHAI awarded 4,344km (872km under BOT and 3,472km under EPC and the hybrid annuity model) against the targeted 5,100km. A

5/20/2016 6:03:25 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Global Growth – US still to lead the Growth - Prabhudas Lilladher Ltd

Global Growth – US still to lead the Growth

US expected to lead the global growth in CY2016:

The US economy is expected to grow at 2.0% in CY2016. Steady job creation, decent real wages growth and higher consumer borrowing is expected to drive growth in CY2016 while mining could see job loss

5/20/2016 5:51:15 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
WPI turns positive after 18 months - Mfd. food inflation surges, core still negative - Religare Capital

Mfd. food inflation surges, core still negative

The Indian economy came out of its longest spell of wholesale deflation in April, when WPI rose by 0.3% YoY after declining in each of the last 17 months. The turnaround was on account of a surge in food product inflation (led by sugar) – core WPI stayed in the negative zone, at -0.8%. Given that the def

5/20/2016 6:06:18 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
NBFC Sector - The comeback story and the new favourite - ICICISecurities

The comeback story and the new favourite

In some sense, Sundaram Finance has always been the uncrowned king of asset finance NBFCs, which is well reflected in its peer relative valuations. However, limited liquidity in the name ensured that investors have been perpetually hunting for a ‘Wazir’(Hindi for Chief Minister), if you will, to

5/20/2016 5:29:55 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Trade Review - Trade remains lackluster with tepid global demand - Emkay Global

Trade remains lackluster with tepid global demand

Trade deficit shrunk to a 5 year low of USD 4.8bn in Apr’16 due to sharper contraction in imports (-23% YoY). Upswing in crude oil prices led to widening the petroleum deficit to USD 3.7bn. Exports continued to contract (6.7%YoY in Apr’16) on account of decline in capital goods imports-i

5/20/2016 4:54:30 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Haryana – Rural improvement is key for turnaround - ICICISecurities

Reason for the report:

Takeaways from visit to Haryana SEB Research Analysts: Prakash Gaurav Goel prakash.goel@icicisecurities.com +91 22 6637 7373 Apoorva Bahadur apoorva.bahadur@icicisecurities.com +91 22 6637 7419 In our recent visit to Haryana SEB, seeking on-ground feedback on implementation of UDAY, we witnessed the SEB attempting to overhau

5/19/2016 5:52:47 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Punjab – Improvements likely to be only marginal in A+ rated discom as pain from surplus PPAs expected to continue

Reason for the report: Takeaway from visit to Punjab SEB Research Analysts: Prakash Gaurav Goel prakash.goel@icicisecurities.com +91 22 6637 7373 Apoorva Bahadur apoorva.bahadur@icicisecurities.com +91 22 6637 7419 Punjab State Power Corporation Limited (PSPCL, Punjab Discom) was accorded A+ rating by the Ministry of Power for its commendable performance in FY14. We met the key SEB and disco

5/19/2016 5:51:37 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
April’16 trade deficit at 61mth low - Sharp fall in non-oil, non-gold imports - Religare Capital Markets

Sharp fall in non-oil, non-gold imports

India’s trade deficit contracted 55.9% to US$ 4.8bn in Apr’16, on the back of a sharp fall in non-oil, non-gold imports. A sharp drop in gold imports as the jewellers’ strike continued and savings on the net oil trade due to lower oil prices also helped contain the deficit. The decline in non-oil exp

5/16/2016 3:32:34 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Insurance Sector - Private players report 14% YoY APE growth during FY16 - Prabhudas Lilladher Ltd

Private players report 14% YoY APE growth during FY16

* New business (APE) growth picks up to 24% YoY during Mar?2016:

New business collection for the industry in APE terms grew 24% YoY during Mar 2016. LIC’s new business sales spiked up to 27% YoY on a benign base while private players reported steady 19% YoY growt

5/16/2016 12:42:13 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Industrial production, CPI inflation - Mfg. weakness hurts Mar IIP, food inflation April CPI - Religare

IIP growth for Mar’16 at 0.1% (cons. 2.5%) was a shocker, as manufacturing and mining activity declined in the month. Apr’16 CPI inflation also surprised negatively, rising to 5.4% (cons. 5.1%) as food inflation increased sharply. The sustained weakness in manufacturing in H2 is worrisome amidst no signs of a pick-up in private capex. We believe although there is a case for a rat

5/16/2016 3:31:37 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
IIP and CPI Review - Stagflation alert: Soft IIP growth amid rising Inflation - Emkay Global

Stagflation alert: Soft IIP growth amid rising Inflation

Despite positive initial production indicators, Mar’16 IIP disappointed with a growth of 0.1% YoY even lower than 2.0% in Feb’16. Isolating the volatile component, cable, rubber insulted IIP grew at positive 2.5% YoY (Exhibit 9). Basic goods sector contributed nearly 1.7pps to the overall

5/16/2016 3:30:37 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
India Financials: Credit Tracker - Credit growth dips to 9.2% - Religare Capital Markets Ltd

Credit growth dips to 9.2%

As per RBI data, both credit and deposits growth declined to ~9.2% for the fortnight ended 29 Apr’16. A decline in investment growth to 5.1% YoY dragged down the SLR to 26.1%. Credit growth has been weak over the last few months due to low corporate demand and a lack of fresh investments. We do not see material improvement a

5/16/2016 12:15:53 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
IIP - Volatile IIP growth surprises again with 0.0% YoY growth in Mar, April CPI at 5.39%

Volatile IIP growth surprises again with 0.0% YoY growth in Mar, April CPI at 5.39%

* Flat IIP in March on high base year number of 2.7% is a negative reading. FY16 (Apr-Mar) IIP growth stands at 2.4% YoY vs 2.8% in FY15. Due to delays in the reporting system and seasonal volatility we beleive 3-MMA is better representative of industrial activities, curren

5/14/2016 6:04:21 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
India Financials - Large borrower framework unlikely to hurt banks - Religare Capital Markets Ltd

* Rational for framework on credit to large corporates:

The RBI’s analysis of 77k borrowers with a credit limit of over Rs 10mn points to the build-up of high concentration credit risk at the system level. Risks are high in power/infra, housing and steel, as many corporates in these sectors are excessively leveraged.

 

*

5/14/2016 5:57:22 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
CPI inches up sharply, comes in at 5.4% in Apr 16 - ICICISecurities

• Consumer price inflation rose sharply to 5.4% y/y in Apr ‘16 from a six month low of 4.8% in Mar ‘16

• The increase was driven by food price. Consumer Food Price Index rose to 6.3% y/y from 5.2% in the previous month. Fruits and vegetable prices recorded sharp increase while pulses inflation remained unchanged from previous month

• Core infl

5/14/2016 2:33:28 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Cement - Price survey, production data analysisand capacity details - Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd

Price survey, production data analysisand capacity details

* Prices in Delhi, NCR and Haryana declined by Rs5-10/bag in last one month as demand has slowed down. However, Punjab and Rajasthan witnessed price increase of Rs15- 20/bag. Hot weather and labor shortage (due to harvesting season) continued to put pressure on construction activities

* I

5/14/2016 2:19:05 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
India Banks - New bankruptcy law – Not a magic wand - Religare Capital Markets Ltd

Both houses of Parliament have today cleared the long-awaited Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, 2016, which aims at the speedy resolution/recovery of money from troubled companies. While we don't rule out the long-term benefits of a strong bankruptcy code for banks, bond markets and companies, we don't see any near/medium term benefits either as delays stemming from (a) want of accurat

5/12/2016 3:17:52 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Metal & Mining Sector Update - Kotak Securities Ltd

We continue to remain cautious on the metal sector, despite the recovery in the metal prices globally. The recovery in the prices steel globally can be attributed to the restocking, as inventory levels were low. However, we believe that given the weak demand and increase in production (steel capacity utilization stands at 70.5% globally, up from 66.2% in March 2016) would put steel prices un

5/11/2016 4:04:32 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Macro Preview - Mar’16 IIP to pick up; Apr CPI to rise slightly - Religare Capital Markets Ltd

Mar’16 IIP to pick up; Apr CPI to rise slightly

After a weak run in the last five months (+1.2% YoY), we expect IIP growth to rise to 4.7% in Mar’16 due to a surge in manufacturing growth and strong electricity generation. CPI inflation is likely to rise to 5% in Apr’16 (4.8% in Mar’16) on the back of a low base effect (limited to f

5/11/2016 3:37:47 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news