FMCG Sector - Better affordability to lead to ~3% volume growth in FY18 - ICICI Securities

Excise duty on cigarettes of all lengths saw a hike of 6% in the Union Budget 2017 unveiled yesterday. Key things to observe from the announcement:

a) Excise hike on cigarettes and chewing tobacco is same at 6%.

b) This is the lowest excise hike on cigarettes in the past five years – and lower than the projected nominal GDP growth and closer to the inflation band.

3/02/2017 2:55:14 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Telecom Sector - RJio leads MBB subs pack, but active subs only 84% of total - ICICI Securities

Reason for report: Subscriber data for the month of November 2016

Regulator (TRAI) released monthly subscriber and MNP (mobile number portability) data for Nov’16. Industry-active (VLR) growth was impacted by demonetisation and fell 1.7mn despite 10.4mn net add by RJio while net add for the top-3 operators stood at 0.3mn. Though RJio captured act

3/02/2017 2:35:20 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Cement Sector - Investment positives demolished - RCML

Investment arguments favouring a re-rating of the Indian cement sector look untenable as (a) demonetisation has deferred the touted FY19 capacity utilisation story, (b) the low-cost regime is winding down, (c) new entrants will induce price volatility, and (d) realisation gains post-GST seem uncertain. We are cautious on the sector and anticipate further consensus earnings cuts along with a con

3/02/2017 2:00:35 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Automobiles Sector Update - Passenger Vehicles lead; Commercial Vehicles on the path to recovery - Sharekhan

The Automotive sales for January 2017 were a mixed bag, with the domestic Passenger Vehicles (PV) segment registering a double-digit volume growth. A higher share of sales through the financing route, and new product launches in the recent past led to a 15.5% YoY volume growth in the domestic PV segment. The Two Wheeler (2W) segment’s sales fell by 8% YoY, but the pace of deceleration aba

3/02/2017 1:51:54 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
India Telecom - Vodafone Q3 results – Competition remains intense - RCML

Vodafone Plc reported its Q3FY17 results, and key takeaways from an India perspective are: (1) The impact of competition is clearly visible in declining revenue. (2) A drop in ARPU levels (-8% QoQ) is in sync with the industry. (3) The India business has retained high-speed data subscribers amid stiff competition at 35mn (Q2: 36mn). (4) Churn rates are going up, with the postpaid churn rate hig

3/02/2017 1:40:03 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Metal Sector - Steel prices fell first time in seven months! - Emkay

Key observations

* Hard coking coal 25% MoM which is nothing short of a crash landing. Steel prices continued with the downward trail as well, falling 2% MoM. However, Iron ore prices for 62% and 58% grade held up and posted a decent rise of 6% and 18% MoM respectively.

* Iron ore prices should cool off with supply pressure emanating from

3/02/2017 1:13:15 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Pharma Sector - Speeding up FDA approvals, negative for generics; positive for CRAMS - Emkay

* The US pharma industry has been asked by the new US administration to lower drug prices as well as commit to more production of drugs in the US. In turn the US government has promised to re-look the functioning of the FDA to ensure faster drug approvals.

* We have already seen a shift of generic companies setting up more production facilities in the US as part of risk mitigation str

3/02/2017 11:20:34 AM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
India Financials: Credit Tracker - Industry credit growth plunges 4.3% YoY - RCML

As per sectoral deployment of credit data released by the RBI, industrial credit declined further to 4.3% in Dec’16 (Nov’16: -3.4%). The medium and small & micro segments continued to bear the brunt of demonetisation with loans to these segments declining over 8%. Retail loan growth moderated further to 13.5% while agri loans grew by 8.2%. We believe the ill effects of demonetis

2/02/2017 4:30:45 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Telecom Sector - Mega merger in offing! Negative for BHIN - Emkay

*  Vodafone and Idea Cellular have confirmed potential merger plan. This would exclude Vodafone's 42% stake in Indus Towers. Merger would entail issuance of new shares in Idea to Vodafone with the former looking for equal rights in the combined entity. The plan on the ownership of Idea’s tower business remains unclear.

*  This merger is a fallout of past spectrum a

2/02/2017 1:09:38 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Paints Sector - Slowdown due to deferment of demand - ICICI Sec

Our recent channel checks across regions indicated that decorative paint demand post demonetisation (w.e.f. 9-Nov’16) was better during November as trade accepted the old currency; however, December seemed to feel the pain due to liquidity challenges. On the other hand, sales in North India were impacted during November as markets were closed for a few days. However, sales in December see

31/01/2017 4:43:11 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Nifty PSU Bank holds strong Bullish momentum - GEPL

NIFTY PSU BANK   Current Close: 3234.15   Trend : Positive

Observation

* NIFTY PSU BANK is the most outperforming sector amongst all the indices last week. It moved up a good 6.38%, as against an up move of 3.50% in benchmark NIFTY 50.

* In the month of Nov. 2016, the Sector created a 52 Week High at 3503

30/01/2017 5:31:21 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Defense & Aerospace – Political Developments: – India Nivesh

India, UAE sign 14 pacts including areas like Defense & Security

India on Jan 25 signed 14 pacts (including areas Defense & Security) with UAE through a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (CSP). This development comes when the crown prince Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan was invited as Chief Guest for the Republic parade. A MoU (Memorandum of Und

30/01/2017 4:14:22 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
India Financials: Credit Tracker - Deposit growth declines to 14.7% - RCML

Deposit growth has started moderating after surging post demonetisation. As per RBI data, deposit growth for the fortnight ended 6 January fell to 14.7% YoY from 15.2% the previous fortnight, with bank deposit inflows increasing by Rs 0.7trn during this period. Credit growth remained stable at 5.1% while investments grew 33% YoY. SLR was stable at 31.8%. We expect FY17 credit growth to remain u

23/01/2017 12:33:43 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
India Capital Goods - Capex growth a fond memory - RCML

As the industry reels under sub-optimal capacity utilisation, banks struggle to clean up balance sheets, and the demand slowdown becomes more pronounced post demonetisation, we see capex growth hard to come by for India Inc. Our analysis points to a 13%/5% YoY decline in corporate capex for FY18/ FY19, posing downside risks to execution and earnings. In the cap goods space, our top ideas are: S

23/01/2017 12:28:47 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Pharma Sector - Have USFDA inspections on Indian facilities peaked out? - Emkay

Key highlights

* The USFDA estimates that of the drugs marketed in the United States, more than 40% of finished drugs and 80% of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) are produced overseas.

* Until 2012, only US based establishments were subject to a once-in-2-years inspection requirement. The FDASIA Act 2012 eliminated this distinction,

23/01/2017 11:56:09 AM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Automobiles Sector - Make hay while the brand shines! - ICICI Sec

We have tried to analyse model-wise data and believe the top-10 brands’ market share trends provide us with a fair basis to evaluate intangibles: competitive landscape / customer behaviour / manufacturer perception.

 

A Game of brands: Key observations

* In the 4W segment, the top-10 brands constitute 67.3% in the PC segm

19/01/2017 3:21:10 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Pharma Sector - December IPM – A new low for domestic pharma growth - Emkay

Indian Pharma Market- Monthly Checkup

* The Indian Pharmaceutical Market (IPM) reported a tepid sales growth of 2.6% YoY to Rs93.2bn for the month of December 2016. While such growth softening has been a continuing trend since the past few months, December’16 has been exceptionally lackluster as it recorded the lowest monthly growth number over

18/01/2017 12:29:54 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Power Sector - Higher Fuel Cost & Muted Demand Growth to Impact Profitability - Reliance Sec

Result Expectations / Sector Preview

Power Sector witnessed decent growth in generation (5.2%) yoy in 3QFY17 compared to marginal 1.3% growth in 2QFY17 on the back of improved system demand. All-India generation in OctDec’16 quarter rose by 5.2% yoy to 288bn units (BUs) and thermal generation rose by 5.1% yoy. Hydro generation grew by 4.5% yoy d

18/01/2017 12:22:50 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Pharma Sector - Mixed Performance in the US Biz; Domestic Biz to See Moderate Growth - Reliance Sec

We expect 3QFY17E will be a mixed quarter for the Indian pharmaceutical companies with some of them are expected to deliver healthy sales growth led by improved ANDA approvals rate by the US FDA, no incremental pricing pressure in the US business and relatively stable currency in Emerging Markets. Few other companies are expected to deliver muted performance due to regulatory headwinds in the U

17/01/2017 12:31:18 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Nifty Pharma has immediate support placed at 10150 levels - GEPL

NIFTY PHARMA    Current Close: 10445.10   Trend : Negative

Observation

* NIFTY PHARMA is one of the underperforming sectoral indices, as it closed down by around 0.26% at 10445.10, as against an up move of 2.16% in benchmark NIFTY 50.

* failed to sustain at higher levels and also formed a Double Top f

17/01/2017 12:22:11 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Nifty Metal holds strong Bullish momentum - GEPL

NIFTY METAL   Current Close: 2952.30   Trend : Positive

Observation

* NIFTY METAL is one of the most outperforming sector amongst all the indices last week. It moved up a good 5.52%, as against an up move of 2.16% in benchmark NIFTY 50.

* In the month of Nov. 2016, the Sector created a 52 Week High at 2891

17/01/2017 12:18:13 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Metals & Mining Sector - Price Hikes to Drive Performance - Reliance Sec

Sector Preview 

3QFY17E is expected to be strong for both ferrous and non-ferrous companies, while the ferrous players are set to report sequentially weak numbers (due to higher raw material prices), while their yoy performance is expected to be stellar. The non-ferrous players are expected to report remarkable performance both yoy and qoq parlanc

16/01/2017 4:05:58 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
Power Sector Update - Q3FY2017 earnings preview - Sharekhan

Q3FY2017 result expectations

Indian Power sector scenario: Power generation in India is expected to grow by 5.2% YoY (up 0.3% QoQ) to 289BU in Q3FY2017. During this quarter, the base energy deficit declined to 0.6% from 1.9% during Q3FY2016. As a result, the average spot power exchange rate dropped by 14% YoY to Rs2.37/unit (up 5% QoQ). The Plant Load

13/01/2017 12:01:51 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news
India Utilities - Q3 Preview: Mixed quarter - RCML

According to CEA, gross power generation (incl. imports from Bhutan) grew moderately by 5.22%/5.15% YoY in Q3/9MFY17. Thermal generation was up 4.9%/6.2% YoY. While central/state sector generation grew by ~7% YoY each in Q3, IPPs registered tepid growth of 1.7%, reflecting limited discom demand and high cost structures of IPPs. PWGR remains our top pick as it is shielded from the low PLF situat

12/01/2017 4:07:52 PM | Posted in Broking Firm Views - Sector Report read full news