Global metals and mining stocks have reacted positively perhaps taking cues that a Trump presidency could launch significant fiscal stimulus in US and boost demand for metals. In his victory speech last night, presidential elect did mention that he would prioritize rebuilding of American infrastructure with hopes of doubling U.S. economic growth. There are expectations of lower taxes, higher in
De-monetization of Rs500 & Rs1,000 notes may prove to be a game changer for Indian banking sector. Currently, currency in circulation is ~12.5% of GDP, which is one of the highest amongst comparable economies. There are Rs16.4 trillion notes in circulation out of which 86.4% are in Rs500 & Rs1,000 denominations. Notably, major chunk of these notes are currently out of the ambit of banki
* Indian Major Ports handled 54.6 mn tons in the month of October 2016, clocking a growth of 13.2% YoY and 7.7% MoM, led by POL (+24.4% YoY), iron ore (+45.5% YoY) and others category (+65.1% YoY) offset by decline in coal (-11.8% YoY)
* New Mangalore (+43% YoY), Mormugao (+58.4% YoY), Paradip (+17.6% YoY), Kandla (+31% YoY), C
Shares of PSU banks have recovered by up to 24 per cent from their intra-day’s low on the bourses after the trade at this eventful day came to an end and have witnessed strong buying among the correction.
State Bank of India’s (SBI) two associate banks of State Bank of Travancore and State Bank of Mysore share price have recovered more than 27 per cent each from their resp
Healthy for Jewelry and Electronics, tepid for QSR and Apparel
Our on-the-ground surveys of retail outlets in West India towards the close of the festive season belie hopes of a recovery in consumption. For apparel stores and QSR outlets, demand during the festive season (Navratri followed by Diwali) was fairly tepid. A depressed base and lower prices
* The CBEC in a recent circular on service tax liability on use of wireless spectrum stated that all periodic payments such as royalty on use of natural resources will attract 15% service tax.
* As per the circular, service tax will be applicable with retrospective effect from FY16. Upstream companies have decided to contest the levy and have already taken the matter to Oil Ministry a
All India average cement prices broadly remained flat month-on-month (m-o-m) in Oct’16 despite continued price uptick in Western region (+3% m-o-m). Though demand scenario improved in selected pockets after seasonal overhang, persistent sand crisis in pockets of Northern UP & Bihar along with back-to-back festivities during the month took a toll on demand in several parts of the count
* Global steel prices continued to improve during the past month supported by improvement in sentiments. Overall, the WSA projects an improvement in steel demand, although it’s currently tepid.
* Hard coking coal prices rose further by 21% to US$258.5/tn. CIS (FoB Black Sea) HRC prices rose 9% MoM to US$425/tn. Chinese
Shares of the pharmaceutical companies on Friday (4th November 2016) fell, with Sun Pharma share price hitting over 28 month low after the news report concluded that the US has begin probe on the possible price cartelization.
Shares of Sun Pharmaceuticals Industries Ltd fell 7.1 per cent, its steepest fall since 21st December 2015 and hit a low of Rs 654.70 per share—a level las
* Results declared so far by the fertiliser companies under our coverage have reported better than estimated volume growth which has compensated for weak realizations. Companies have also benefited from fall in RM costs
* Agrochemical companies have reported mixed results with UPL posting strong volume growth of 23% yoy led by healthy revenue growth in India and Latin America while Ba
* Rise in crude oil price: Brent Crude oil was up by 7.2% MoM, mainly driven by speculation that OPEC countries would freeze output as had been tentatively considered in the meeting in September. Light-Heavy (L-H) differential is up by $0.2/bbl MoM to $2.6/bbl.
* Refining margins and product spreads: Calculated benchmark S’pore GRM has shown a downtrend MoM from $6.7/bbl to $6.0
* LNG imports continue to drive consumption:
Monthly gas consumption data for Sep’16 points to a 7.5% MoM/28.6% YoY increase in India’s LNG imports to ~2.3mmt (53% of total net consumption); for Q2FY17, LNG imports totaled 6.4mmt (+18% YoY). Imports improved despite the Dabhol terminal remaining shut for monsoons, implying a strong operatin
The telecom sector of India has gained immense momentum over the past few years to set new benchmarks and touch new heights. Even when we are sitting in our room, we are a click away from the rest of the world. As a result of the increasing consumer base, the telecom industry has been thriving. Introduction of new technology in handsets and connection providers have taken the user experience to
Hindustan Unilever (HUL) and other packaged consumer goods firms posted subdued consumer demand in the fiscal Q2 even as they said that they expect a revival in demand in the latter half of the year after a normal monsoon brought relief to drought-hit farmers after 2 years. The companies are confident that the worst is over as far as demand is concerned, even though increasing raw material pric
* We met the senior Management of Rajasthan Discom to understand the pulse on the ground with regards complying with the government’s UDAY norms and the challenges being faced in doing so
* Our assessment suggests that the Jodhpur Discom stands out vis-a-vis its other two counterparts in the state in terms of its approach and execution to improve its operational efficiency and t
MarketFresh: FMCG Tracker - Select pricing action across categories; promotional intensity still high - RCML
The RCML RM index inched up 0.6% MoM in Sep’16, with prices of both the crude and agri baskets moving up. Amongst products, P&G increased detergent prices (Ariel powder: +3.8% MoM and Tide Plus: +6.7% MoM) while HUVR hiked toothpaste rates (both its variants by high single digits), even as overall promotion levels remained high. With topline growth likely to remain tepid in FY17 and m
Private sector lenders HDFC Bank Limited and Kotak Mahindra Bank Limited reported second-quarter (Q2) net profit increased on higher interest and fee income, while their bad-loan ratios were less than the previous quarter.
HDFC Bank Limited, the nation's 2nd biggest private sector lender, said on Tuesday that its net profit for July-September quarter (Q2) climbed 20 per cent from
NIFTY AUTO Current Close: 10101.60 Trend : Negative
* NIFTY AUTO is one of the underperforming sectoral indices, as it closed down by 1.19% at 10101.60, as against a down move of 1.31% in benchmark NIFTY 50.
* After making an all time high @ 10466.90 last month; it has failed to
NIFTY PVT BANK Current Close: 11028.40 Trend : Positive
* NIFTY PVT BANK is the most outperforming sector amongst all the indices last week, as it has moved up sharply by 4.21%, as against an up move of 1.28% in benchmark NIFTY 50.
* In the month of Sep. 2016, the Sector created a FRE
A regional newspaper recently unearthed a troubling microfinance debt situation in the Wardha district of Maharashtra (see Loksatta, 20 Oct). The article states that borrowers in ~10 villages in the district have been facing high debt levels and harsh recovery techniques by lenders, forcing many villagers to demand government intervention. We believe this epitomises a widespread problem for MFI
Petroleum consumption declined 0.7% yoy in September driven by 11% decline in diesel (+20% yoy in Sep-15) and 3% decline in gasoline (+25% yoy in Sep-15), presumably affected by restricted freight/passenger movement due to strong monsoon, as compared to weak monsoon last year. Monthly volatility aside, growth has moderated to 8% in 1HFY17 as compared to 13% in 2HFY16 driven by moderation in gro
Stocks of selected textile companies were trading higher by up to 20% on NSE on the back of heavy volumes. Garden Silk Mills, Nahar Spinning Mills, Vardhman Polytex, Raymond, and Indo Count Industries were up 3%-20%, as compared to 0.18% decline in S&P BSE Sensex and 0.21% decrease in Nifty at 3:00 PM.
Garden Silk share price surged 20% to Rs 38.55 after the company announced fund
Metals & Mining - Advantage Non-ferrous Players; Ferrous Players to See a Seasonally Weak Quarter - Reliance Sec
2QFY17E is expected to be strong for non-ferrous players, while the ferrous players are expected to report sequentially weak numbers due to lower steel prices and higher cost of inputs. Despite price hikes in August & September, the average realization is expected to decline by ~4% qoq, exerting pressure on profitability. Sales volum
We expect a muted Q2 for power generation players NTPC and JSW on account of poor demand from discoms. NTPC should report flattish growth in thermal output and lower PLFs (~74.7% vs. 81.4% in Q1FY17). JSW, with a 27% decline in thermal power generation in Q2, would also be hit by rising cost of imported coal and INR depreciation. However, transmission play PWGR should see a good Q2 led by stron
As per RBI data, credit growth for the fortnight ended 30 Sep’16 increased sharply to 10.4% YoY while deposit growth picked up to 11.3%. We think the sharp improvement in both credit and deposit growth was largely a quarter-end phenomena. Investment growth declined to 6.9% YoY while SLR slid to 26.3%. Credit growth has been weak over the last few months due to low corporate demand and a l