Sensex (38015) / Nifty (11274)
During the last week, market looked depressed and the way it was grinding towards the recent lows, traders’ / investors’ were almost losing all hopes from the market. The FM tried lot many things in last few weeks to boost the sentiments; but seems she had saved her masterstroke for the right time. Finally on Friday, she delivered which could lift the sentiments and that has clearly been proven by such a mesmerizing reaction from the market. The buying commenced the moment FM initiated her speech and it went to a different level for next couple of hours. Finally this became the historical day for our markets as we clocked biggest ever intraday gains to take a giant leap from 10700.
Now the point is what’s next? Firstly, one has to understand that the low hanging fruit is already gone after this colossal rally. But this is not the end of it; there are further legs to unfold from hereon. With reference to our previous articles, we did some ‘Time Retracement’ analysis taking into a consideration few historical evidences. For ‘Nifty Midcap’ index, the September month was the 21st month from January 2018 peak. And on last couple of occasions (historically), the downtrend got arrested after 21st and 34th month. As per the Fibonacci series, both 21 and 34 are part of it and hence hold some significance. In addition, for Nifty, last week was the 21st week as per the ‘Time Retracement’ and thus, we were hoping for some respite. Considering the last week’s initial correction, our final hope was the recent low of 10637.15. Fortunately it remained defended and with Friday’s development, the market seemed to have validated our hypothesis on ‘Time Retracement’.
Now, we have finally managed to thrash the recent sturdy wall of 11200 with some authority. Although, we are considerably higher in a single day, traders should continue to remain on the long side and soon we expect Nifty to head towards 11450 – 11550 or may be beyond. As far as supports are concerned, 11150 followed by 11000 would now be seen as a sheet anchor. Any decline (if any) should be construed as a buying opportunity. On Friday, almost all sectors (especially the beaten down) soared as if there is no tomorrow. One needs to identify apt candidates who are likely to extend this lead. The FM has finally delivered and market has finally turned cheerful to bring back wider smiles on the faces of market participants.
Nifty Bank Outlook - (28982)
Friday's session turned out to be a blockbuster day for the banking sector as well as the stocks from this sector as it witnessed enourmous buying momentum post the announcement from the FM to cut the corporate tax rate. The index not ony breached high of the recent consolidation phase, but also registered its biggest rally in last 10 years. The BankNifty ended the week around the 29000 mark, registering whopping gains of more than 2200 points on Friday. In last one month, it was the third time wherein the BankNifty took support in the range of 26650-26550. Howerver, this time it was not just a pull back move but an upmove supported by a broader market and significant high volumes. Thus, the breach of the swing high of 28127 changed the trend for the index and the follow up momentum was seen throuhout the day. Hence, traders should avoid taking any contra trades and look for buying opportunities.
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