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Published on 19/07/2019 11:56:13 AM | Source: Kedia Commodity Ltd

Turmeric trading range for the day is 6964-7236 - Kedia Commodity

Posted in Commodities Reports| #Kedia Commodity Ltd #Commodity Tips

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Gold

 Gold on MCX settled up 0.19% at 35156 as expectations of a rate cut later this month weighed on the dollar and prompted investors to seek the safe haven commodity. Meanwhile, the Fed is widely expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points at its policy meeting at the end of the month, with some in the market even betting on a 50 basis point cut. The Fed reported that the U.S. economy continued growing at a "modest" rate in recent weeks, with consumers continuing to spend and a "generally positive" outlook overall even in the face of disruptions caused by the U.S. trade policy. Earlier in the week, U.S. President Donald Trump kept up the pressure on Beijing with a threat to put tariffs on another $325 billion of Chinese goods. The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told a dinner audience at the Bank of France in Paris the central bank is "carefully monitoring" downside risks to U.S. growth and "will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion." Hopes about a steep cut in interest rate faded on Tuesday after data showed a bigger than expected increase in retail sales in June and factory output too rose more than expected in the month. A report from the Commerce Department said housing starts slid by 0.9% to an annual rate of 1.253 million in June after slipping by 0.4% to a revised rate of 1.265 million in May. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.31% to settled at 15247 while prices up 66 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 34961 and below same could see a test of 34765 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 35272, a move above could see prices testing 35387.           

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 34765-35387.

* Gold gained as expectations of a rate cut later this month weighed on the dollar and prompted investors to seek the safe haven commodity.

* The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said the greenback was overvalued by 6% to 12%, based on near-term economic fundamentals.

* U.S. interest rates futures implied traders fully expect the Fed to cut rates at its upcoming policy meeting on July 30-31 with a 35% chance for a half-point decrease


               
Silver

 Silver on MCX settled up 1.4% at 40738 after the IMF said the U.S. currency is overvalued by 6-12% based on near-term economic fundamentals. Meanwhile, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly indicated that she was still uncertain over whether it was the time to cut interest rates at the end of the month. In the Fed’s last meeting in June, the central bank said it would act “as appropriate” to sustain the economy. However, data this month showed the U.S. economy may be too strong to justify a rate cut, as consumer spending is stronger-than-expected while unemployment is near a 50-year low. Despite the strong data, concerns surrounding the Sino-U.S. trade development remained as U.S. President Donald Trump said this week that it is still a long way to go before Washington and Beijing could make a trade deal, while threatening to impose more tariffs on Chinese goods. "The jury is still out in my mind about whether or not the headwinds will be so sufficient to knock the U.S. economy off of its trend pace of growth," Daly said. Construction of new houses in the US fell slightly in June and permits sank to the lowest in two years, suggesting that a sluggish US housing market has failed to gain much momentum from lower mortgage rates. Housing starts slipped 0.9% in June to an annual pace of 1.25 million last months, the government said. Permits to build more homes slipped 6.1% to a 1.22 million pace. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.26% to settled at 18236, now Silver is getting support at 40386 and below same could see a test of 40035 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 40939, a move above could see prices testing 41141.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 40035-41141.

* Silver prices rallied after the IMF said the U.S. currency is overvalued by 6-12% based on near-term economic fundamentals.

* San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly indicated that she was still uncertain over whether it was the time to cut interest rates at the end of the month.

* Construction of new houses in the US fell slightly in June and permits sank to the lowest in two years.
               

Crude oil

 Crude oil on MCX settled down -2.58% at 3815 after official data showed U.S. stockpiles of products like gasoline rose sharply last week, suggesting weak demand during the peak driving season. Prices also seen under pressure on worries over a Middle East conflict have eased, oil production in the Gulf of Mexico has resumed after a storm and worries have emerged over Chinese economic growth. On the oil supply front, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed a larger-than-expected drawdown in crude stockpiles last week, but traders focused on large builds in refined product inventories dragging prices down. U.S. crude inventories fell 3.1 million barrels, the EIA said, more than forecasts for a decrease of 2.7 million barrels. Crude production was disrupted last week by Storm Barry, which came ashore on Saturday in central Louisiana as a Category 1 hurricane, the first major storm to hit the U.S. Gulf of Mexico this season. More than half of daily crude production in the Gulf of Mexico remained offline by Tuesday, as most oil companies were re-staffing facilities to resume production. The market shrugged of another incident involving a tanker in the Middle East amid tensions between the United States and Iran. U.S. officials say they are unsure whether an oil tanker towed into Iranian waters was seized by Iran or rescued after facing mechanical faults as Tehran asserts, creating a mystery at a time of high tension in the Middle East. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -12.45% to settled at 11635 while prices down -101 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 3743 and below same could see a test of 3670 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 3920, a move above could see prices testing 4024. 

Trading Ideas:

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 3670-4024.

* Crude oil dropped after official data showed U.S. stockpiles of products like gasoline rose sharply last week, suggesting weak demand during the peak driving season.

* Prices also seen under pressure on worries over a Middle East conflict have eased, oil production in the Gulf of Mexico has resumed after a storm.

* Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed a larger-than-expected drawdown in crude stockpiles last week.
               

Natural gas

Natural gas on MCX settled down -0.75% at 157.8 after the release of a government report showing a near normal storage build last week allowed the market to focus on forecasts for cooler weather and lower demand next week than previously expected. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released the storage report on concerns the report could show a much smaller than expected build and forecasts for hot weather to return in early August after next week's cool down. The EIA said utilities added a near normal 62 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to inventories during the week ended July 12. Meteorologists forecast this week's hot weather will peak over the weekend with temperatures next week expected to cool to near normal levels before rising again around the start of August. Refinitiv projected demand in the lower 48 U.S. states would fall from 91.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 90.1 bcfd next week because power plants will not burn as much gas to keep air conditioners humming with the more moderate weather. Gas production from the offshore Gulf of Mexico was expected to rise to 1.7 bcfd on Thursday from a low of 1.2 bcfd on Saturday-Monday, according to Refinitiv. That compares with a high of 3.1 bcfd during the first week of July. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.11% to settled at 7330 while prices down -1.2 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 155.1 and below same could see a test of 152.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 161.6, a move above could see prices testing 165.4. 

Trading Ideas:

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 152.4-165.4.

* Natural gas eased after the release of a government report showing a near normal storage build last week allowed the market to focus on forecasts for cooler weather

* The EIA said utilities added a near normal 62 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to inventories during the week ended July 12.

* Meteorologists forecast hot weather will peak over the weekend with temperatures next week expected to cool to near normal levels before rising again around the start of August.


               
Copper

Copper on MCX settled up 0.18% at 447.55 after disappointing US new housing starts data lowered the greenback. However, upside seen limited after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose further tariffs on China, a move which could dent demand for metals. Trump questioned China's failure to make good on what he saw as its promise to buy more U.S. agricultural goods, and said Washington could impose tariffs on an additional $325 billion worth of Chinese goods if it needed to do so. Copper inventories in LME-registered warehouses climbed to the highest since April 2018, suggesting a better supplied market. China's top copper smelters lowered their floor treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) for the third quarter by 24.7%, with one adding smelters will consider cutting output if low rates persist. The 10-member China Smelters Purchase Team (CSPT) set the treatment charge floor at $55 per tonne, and the refining charge floor at 5.5 cents a pound at a meeting in Hunchun, in northeast China's Jilin province, said the people, who asked not to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter. The group has now cut its floor for two straight quarters. The TC/RC floor for the second quarter was $73 per tonne and 7.3 cents a pound, while no floor was set in the third quarter of 2018. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -11.76% to settled at 4530 while prices up 0.8 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 446.1 and below same could see a test of 444.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 448.9, a move above could see prices testing 450.1. 

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 444.5-450.1.

* Copper prices ended with gains after disappointing US new housing starts data lowered the greenback.

* China's top copper smelters lowered their floor treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) for the third quarter by 24.7%.

* Copper inventories in LME-registered warehouses climbed to the highest since April 2018, suggesting a better supplied market
 

Zinc

Zinc on MCX settled down -0.98% at 192.45 as data showed the global zinc market deficit  narrowed in May. The global zinc market deficit narrowed to 27,200 tonnes in May from an upwardly revised deficit of 87,500 tonnes in April,  data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Zinc social inventories across Shanghai, Tianjin and Guangdong continued to shrink over the weekend, as limited deliveries from smelters arrived at warehouses with July maintenance in northern China.  Data showed that stocks across the three regions decreased by 200 mt from Friday July 12 and by 1,700 mt from Monday July 8 to stand at 146,300 mt as of Monday July 15. Inventories in Tianjin and Shanghai extended their declines, but stocks in Guangdong saw an uptick. Summer maintenance at some smelters and bargain-hunting purchases by downstream consumers deterred social inventories from sharply ramping up. Inventories, however, are expected to grow as supply will expand after smelters recover from maintenance and as overall consumption is weak in a low season. Housing starts slipped 0.9% in June to an annual pace of 1.25 million last month, the government said Wednesday. Permits to build more homes slipped 6.1% to a 1.22 million pace. Permits in June also stood about 7% lower compared to the same month a year earlier. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -14.88% to settled at 2802 while prices down -1.9 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 189.7 and below same could see a test of 187 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 195.7, a move above could see prices testing 199.  

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 187-199.

* Zinc ended with losses as data showed the global zinc market deficit  narrowed in May.

* The global zinc market deficit narrowed to 27,200 tonnes in May from an upwardly revised deficit of 87,500 tonnes in April.

* Summer maintenance at some smelters and bargain-hunting purchases by downstream consumers deterred social inventories from sharply ramping up.


               
Nickel

Nickel on MCX settled up 3.77% at 1031.1 spurred by a 10% jump in China's stainless steel output in the first half of the year. Major stainless steel mills made large purchases in the physical market earlier this week, improving overall spot trading activities, which had been anemic. Concerns about supply have driven recent gains in nickel prices. Indonesian earthquakes, its potential 2022 export ban on nickel ore as well as a mining audit in the Philippines all sparked fears of a potential supply shortage. Market open interest in Shanghai nickel, a measure of liquidity, rose to 604,806 lots on Wednesday, its highest since April, and was up more than 50% since July 5. Trading volume on Thursday had exceeded 1 million lots by the end of the morning session, well above the 30-day average for a full day's trade. The World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) reported that the world nickel market saw a deficit of 57,300 mt in the first five months of the year. This followed a supply gap of 91,300 mt for all of 2018. Russian nickel was quoted in a smaller discount of 300 yuan/mt against the SHFE August contract on Wednesday, compared to 500 yuan/mt on Tuesday. Stainless steel producers and traders continued to hike their quotes, with those for 304-series growing 400 yuan/mt from the previous week as of July 17. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.44% to settled at 10949 while prices up 37.5 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1005.7 and below same could see a test of 980.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1049.6, a move above could see prices testing 1068.2.     

Trading Ideas:

* Nickel trading range for the day is 980.4-1068.2.

* Nickel prices ended with gains spurred by a 10% jump in China's stainless steel output in the first half of the year.

* Concerns about supply have driven recent gains in nickel prices, Indonesian earthquakes, its potential 2022 export ban on nickel ore.

* The WBMS reported that the world nickel market saw a deficit of 57,300 mt in the first five months of the year.
               

Aluminium

 Aluminium on MCX settled up 0.45% at 143.7 buoyed by upbeat market sentiment and a weaker US dollar.  Social inventories of primary aluminium across eight consumption areas in China, including SHFE warrants, barely changed from a week ago and stood at 1.042 million mt as of Thursday July 18, showed data. This came after the first weekly increase in about four months in the week ended July 11. U.S. aluminium producer Alcoa says global aluminium demand growth for 2019 is estimated to range between 1.25%-2.25% and continues to project a global aluminium deficit of 1 million-1.4 million tonnes this year. Inventories of aluminium billet in China continued to shrink this week, with a significant drop in stocks in Foshan of Guangdong province. Data showed that stocks of 6063 aluminium billet across five major consumption areas decreased by some 400 mt from Thursday July 11 to stand at 81,100 mt as of Thursday July 18, after they fell 1,700 mt in the previous week. China’s imports of aluminium scrap came in at 177,200 mt in May, up 57.8% from May 2018 and 15.81% from April, showed data from China Customs. Imports via processing trade gained 23.5% month on month and 37% year on year to stand at 63,000 mt, while imports through general trade expanded 11.8% from a month earlier and 72.7% from a year earlier to 114,000 mt. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.72% to settled at 1770 while prices up 0.65 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 143.1 and below same could see a test of 142.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 144.2, a move above could see prices testing 144.6. 

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 142.4-144.6.

* Aluminium prices gained buoyed by upbeat market sentiment and a weaker US dollar.

* Social inventories of primary aluminium across eight consumption areas in China, including SHFE warrants.

* U.S. aluminium producer Alcoa says global aluminium demand growth for 2019 is estimated to range between 1.25%-2.25%.


 

Mentha oil

Mentha oil on MCX settled up by 0.63% at 1300.8 amid improved demand from consuming industries at the domestic spot market. Further, lower arrivals from major producing belts of Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh also supporting prices. However, upside seen limited amid expectations of higher acreage under mint in 2019 due to lucrative prices throughout last year. Export demand for oil in the global market is likely to be improved due to recovery in a currency which is supportive for prices. The surge in output is likely due to buoyancy in planting intentions, not only in the traditional pockets of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar in recent days but also in Madhya Pradesh. Mentha sowing may witness a huge jump this year because of high returns farmers experienced the whole of last year. Production of mentha oil is expected to rise to 48,000-50,000 tn in 2019 from 33,000-35,000 tn last year. This year, sowing of the crop started towards the end of last month, a couple of weeks later than usual due to extended cold weather in all major growing regions. Official data on mentha, concerning sowing or production and export, is not available as trade in the commodity is tightly controlled by a few. This season, the area under mint is expected to be 250,000-265,000 ha.  Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1429.00 per 1kg. Spot prices was up by Rs.19.70/-.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.15% to settled at 854 while prices up 8.1 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1275 and below same could see a test of 1249.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1323.4, a move above could see prices testing 1345.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1249.1-1345.9.

* Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1429.00 per 1kg. Spot prices was up by Rs.19.70/-.

* Menthaoil settled up amid improved demand from consuming industries at the domestic spot market.

* Further, lower arrivals from major producing belts of Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh also supporting prices.

* However, upside seen limited amid expectations of higher acreage under mint in 2019 due to lucrative prices throughout last year.


               
Soyabean

"Soyabean on NCDEX settled down by -0.66% at 3616 on late profit booking after prices gained after update that soyabean growing central regions received 68% less rainfall in the week. The Southwest Monsoon was very active in Central, East and Northeast India during the first ten days of the month. And every day there was a drop of about 2-3 per cent in the countrywide rainfall deficiency. Government hike minimum support price by 9% or 311 rupees to 3,710 per 100 kg for 2019/20 which also helps to increase acreage this year. China's soybean imports fell 25% in June from the same month last year, according to customs data, as the Sino-U.S. trade war and a severe outbreak of deadly African swine fever curb demand. China brought in 6.52 million tonnes of soybeans in June, down from 8.7 million tonnes last year, according to data from the General Administration of Customs. China brought in 7.36 million tonnes of soybeans in May. As per data released by SEA, soy meal exports provisionally down by 82.5% in June to 18,185 tonnes compared to last year. Government hike minimum support price by 9% or 311 rupees to 3,710 per 100 kg for 2019/20 which also helps to increase acreage this year. As per farm ministry, acreage under soybean is 16.75 lakh ha so far, increased from 2.75 lakh ha from the previous week but down about 65% from last year acreage of 48.42 lakh ha. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped  -9 Rupees to 3683 Rupees per 100 kgs., now Soyabean is getting support at 3599 and below same could see a test of 3583 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 3643, a move above could see prices testing 3671."

Trading Ideas:

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 3583-3671.

* Soyabean dropped on late profit booking after prices gained after update that soyabean growing central regions received 68% less rainfall.

* Government hike minimum support price by 9% or 311 rupees to 3,710 per 100 kg for 2019/20 which also helps to increase acreage this year.

* China's soybean imports fell 25% in June from the same month last year, according to customs data.  

* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped  -9 Rupees to 3683 Rupees per 100 kgs.


               
Soyaoil

Ref.Soyaoil on NCDEX settled down by -0.54% at 727.8  tracking weakness in spot demand on the progress of monsoon in more parts of Madhya Pradesh. According to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA), U.S. June soybean crush fell by 3.85 per cent to 148.843 million bushels from 154.796 million bushels in May 2019. The crush of soybean in June was lower by 6.52 per cent compared to June 2018 figure of 159.228 million bushels. Soy oil stocks in the U.S. at the end of June fell 2.91 per cent to 1.535 billion lbs compared to 1.581 billion lbs in end May 2019. Stocks of soy oil at the end of June was lower by 13.08 per cent compared to end June 2018, which was reported at 1.766 million lbs. Soybean oil stocks were above trade expectation. India's vegetable oil imports rose 6% in June from a year ago to 1.11 million tonnes, a leading trade body said. According to recent Ministry report, India has covered total oil seeds Kharif sowing area as on 12th July 2019 about 75.68 lakh Ha. has been reported compared to normal corresponding week (92.50 lakh Ha.) from the previous year. As per WASDE latest report, Global Oilseed production is estimated at 586.0 million tons, down by 11.7 million tonnes which are mostly on lower soybean production for the United States. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 732.6 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.89% to settled at 40620 while prices down -3.95 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 727 and below same could see a test of 724 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 733, a move above could see prices testing 736.

Trading Ideas:

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 724-736.

* Ref soyoil ended with gains tracking weakness in spot demand on the progress of monsoon in more parts of Madhya Pradesh.

* U.S. June soybean crush fell by 3.85 per cent to 148.843 million bushels from 154.796 million bushels in May 2019.

* Global Oilseed production is estimated at 586.0 million tons, down by 11.7 million tonnes which are mostly on lower soybean production for the United States.

* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 732.6 Rupees per 10 kgs.


               
Crude palm Oil

Crude palm Oil on MCX settled up by 0.08% at 499.1  tracking firmness in spot demand and overseas prices. Indonesia exported 2.03 million tonnes of palm and palm kernel oils in April and 2.40 million tonnes in May, the Indonesia Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) said. Exports rose 12% on year in May after declining 9% in April, GAPKI data showed. Shipments from the world's top palm oil producer remained under pressure mainly due to trade restriction in its biggest market India, where it continued to the lost ground to rival Malaysia, GAPKI said in a statement. Meanwhile, Indonesia added 4.64 million tonnes and 4.73 million tonnes to palm oil inventories in April and May respectively, GAPKI said, pushing the domestic stock to 3.53 million tonnes by the end of May. Malaysian stockpiles at end-June eased 0.97% on-month to 2.42 million tonnes, against the forecast of a 4% decline to 2.35 million tonnes. The MPOB also reported that output in June fell 9.2% month-on-month to 1.52 million tonnes, while exports dropped 19.4% from May to 1.38 million tonnes last month. The MPOB data also showed that output also fell to 1.52 million tonnes, down 9.2% from May, and also the lowest since July last year. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.59% to settled at 3795 while prices up 0.4 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 497.5 and below same could see a test of 495.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 501.2, a move above could see prices testing 503.3.

Trading Ideas:

* CPO trading range for the day is 495.9-503.3.

* Crude palm oil ended with gains tracking firmness in spot demand and overseas prices.

* Indonesia exported 2.03 million tonnes of palm and palm kernel oils in April and 2.40 million tonnes in May, GAPKI said.

* Malaysian stockpiles at end-June eased 0.97% on-month to 2.42 million tonnes, against the forecast of a 4% decline to 2.35 million tonnes.

* Crude palm oil prices in the spot market gained by 2.30 rupees and settled at 491.30 rupees.


               
Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed on NCDEX settled down by -0.41% at 3932 on late profit booking after prices gained on hopes of meal demand from China as it refused shipment from Canada. Further, higher procurement by the National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation of India limited the fall in prices. NAFED had procured 754,707 tn mustard harvested in 2018-19 (Jul-Jun), higher than 672,300 tn procured a week ago under the price support scheme, an official with the agency said. Export of mustard seed meal during April-May 2019 dropped by 40% y/y during the year 2019-20 till May end as India exported about 140149 tons of mustard seed meal during April-May 2019 compare to 231807 tons of prior year for the corresponding period. India exported about 19519 tons of rapeseed meals during May 2019 against the 120630 tons of prior month. Mills across the country crushed 750,000 tn of mustard seeds in May, 16.7% lower from a year earlier, according to data compiled by the Mustard Oil Producers Association of India. Sharp fall in the supply of fresh mustard crop, harvested in 2018-19 (Jul-Jun), slowed the crushing in May, an official with the association said.  Arrivals of the fresh crop were at 1.15 mln tn in May, significantly lower from 3.55 mln tn a year ago, the official said.    In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -20 Rupees to end at 4128 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.85% to settled at 82000 while prices down -16 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 3918 and below same could see a test of 3904 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 3953, a move above could see prices testing 3974. 

Trading Ideas:

* Rmseed trading range for the day is 3904-3974.

* Rmseed dropped on late profit booking after prices gained on hopes of meal demand from China as it refused shipment from Canada.

* Further, higher procurement by National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation of India limited the fall in prices.

* Nil import of rapeseed oil for the third month in a row in May helped the mustard seeds prices to increase due to demand from crushing units

* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -20 Rupees to end at 4128 Rupees per 100 kg.

 

Turmeric

Turmeric on NCDEX settled down by -1.97% at 7054 on profit booking after prices gained tracking strong export demand at spot markets and improving export demand. Current year Turmeric sowing reported delayed by 20 - 25 days in Maharashtra due to water scarcity. In Sangli district of Maharashtra and adjoining area of Karnataka till now 35 -40% turmeric sowing completed, farmers were waiting for rainfall. In Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Turmeric sowing current year reported the delay by 10 – 15 days due to the delayed monsoon, in Andhra Pradesh sources revealed that area may go down current year, the farmer may shift to Maize crop. Till now, 15 – 20% sowing completed in AP and Telangana, mostly farmers were waiting for monsoon rainfall. In Andhra Pradesh, Duggirala market new turmeric crop continued in the market, currently on an average 11,000 – 15,000 quintal reported daily. Turmeric production for 2019-20 is estimated at 532,353 MT (basis dry crop) compared to previous year’s 476,771 MT. While, turmeric exports in first 4-months in 2019, up by 10% to 42,000 tn compared to 38,171 tn. The country exported about 1.33 lakh tonnes of turmeric in FY 18-19 compared to 1.11 lt last year. In 2018/19, production is forecast at 10.77 lt in the 3rd advance estimates by the government. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6710 Rupees gained 202.85 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.42% to settled at 11755 while prices down -142 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7010 and below same could see a test of 6964 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7146, a move above could see prices testing 7236.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6964-7236.

* Turmeric dropped on profit booking after prices gained tracking strong export demand at spot markets and improving export demand.

* Current year Turmeric sowing reported delayed by 20 - 25 days in Maharashtra due to water scarcity.

* Turmeric sowing current year reported the delay by 10 – 15 days due to the delayed monsoon, in Andhra Pradesh sources revealed that area may go down the current year

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6710 Rupees gained 202.85 Rupees.

               

Jeera

Jeera on NCDEX settled down by -0.57% at 18195  on profit booking after prices gained due to steady demand from domestic stockists amid fall in supplies. Arrivals are lower as farmers are hoarding their produce on expectations of better prices. The sentiments of the traders at the spot markets are positive due to heavy purchases being made by the exporters and wholesalers. Good news for India's cumin exporters is that its yield in Syria-where new crop usually comes in the middle will be lower this year. This means that overseas demand for jeera from India can remain strong in the foreign market for the coming few months. Overall due to higher availability this season, exports demand will play a major role in prices movement. Jeera exports are up 4.6% on year in February at 10,186 tn compared to 9,736 tn last year while for Apr-Feb period it is up 23.2% at 1.57 lt, compared to last year, according to DGCIS. In March 2019, close to 70,500 tonnes of cumin arrived in the physical market. India’s cumin seed (jeera) output is set to touch 4.16 lakh tonnes for 2019, about 9% higher than the previous year, supported by a sharp jump in production in Rajasthan. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 20.4 Rupees to end at 18029.65 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.19% to settled at 6633 while prices down -105 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 18105 and below same could see a test of 18020 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 18340, a move above could see prices testing 18490. 

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 18020-18490

* Jeera prices dropped on profit booking after prices gained due to steady demand from domestic stockists amid fall in supplies.

* Arrivals are lower as farmers are hoarding their produce on expectations of better prices.

* Good news for India's cumin exporters is that its yield in Syria-where new crop usually comes in the middle will be lower this year.

* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 20.4 Rupees to end at 18029.65 Rupees per 100 kg.


               
Cotton

Cotton on MCX settled down by -0.87% at 21550 on profit booking after prices gained supported by adverse weather condition for planting progress in the central region. Monsoon has been delayed this year and now slower progress of monsoon could impact the planting activities of Kharif crops including cotton. However, World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report projected higher global ending stocks for 2019/20 crop year amid demand woes.  India’s exports are likely to drop till the end of the cotton season up to September 30, 2019, to 40-50 lakh bales. Imports were likely to be on the lower side as well, trade bodies said. Shipments of nearly 22 lakh bales had arrived and another 10 lakh bales were expected till the end of the season. The Southern India Mills’ Association (Sima ) has earlier estimated cotton imports at 22 lakh bales. The Association has estimated that actual imports can be between 28 lakh bales and 30 lakh bales when the season ends. The Cotton Advisory Board (CAB) has estimated it to be 22 lakh bales. According to the data released by Cotton Association of India (CAI), the total cotton supply till end of the cotton season up to September 30, 2019, is estimated at 376 lakh bales of 170 kg each consisting of the opening stock of 33 lakh bales at the beginning of the season.  Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -16.89% to settled at 4999 while prices down -190 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 21380 and below same could see a test of 21220 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 21820, a move above could see prices testing 22100. 

Trading Ideas:

* Cotton trading range for the day is 21220-22100.

* Cotton dropped on profit booking after prices gained supported by adverse weather condition for planting progress in the central region.

* Monsoon been delayed this year and now slower progress of monsoon could impact the planting activities of kharif crops including cotton.

* India’s exports are likely to drop till the end of cotton season up to September 30, 2019, to 40-50 lakh bales.

* Cotton prices in spot market dropped by 30.00 rupees and settled at 21230.00 rupees. 
               

Chana

Chana on NCDEX settled down by -0.25% at 4353 on late profit booking after prices gained due to improvement in demand in the physical market may support price but there are ample supplies in the physical market. Chana prices also got support due to the estimation of lower output this year. NAFED procured 762,781.46 tons of chana in Telangana, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Karnataka and Gujarat under Price Support Scheme (PSS). Chana output forecast revised slightly lower at 100.90 lakh tons in third advance estimates compared to 103.2 lakh tons in second advance estimates by the government. In 2018/19, chana output forecast at 103.2 lt in 2ndadvance estimated by Government, down 8% on year due to 10% less area. Currently, chana attracts 60% import duty since Mar 2018 which restricted imports. Chana, imports are down 85.1% to 1.43 lt in 2018/19 (Apr-Jan) compared to 9.58 lt last year, while exported are close to 2 lt of chana compared to 68,000 tonnes last year. According to the second advance estimate released by the government, chana production estimate for 2018-19 is 10.32 million MT which is 8.10percent lower than the 4th advance estimate of 11.23 million MT of 2017-18. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.59% to settled at 126550 while prices down -11 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 4336 and below same could see a test of 4319 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4380, a move above could see prices testing 4407.  

Trading Ideas:

* Chana trading range for the day is 4319-4407.

* Chana dropped on late profit booking after prices gained due to improvement in demand in the physical market  

* In 2018/19, chana output forecast at 103.2 lt in 2ndadvance estimated by Government, down 8% on year due to 10% less area.

* Chana output forecast revised slightly lower at 100.90 lakh tons in third  advance estimates compared to 103.2 lakh tons

* In Delhi spot market, chana gained  by 7.1 Rupees to end at 4260 Rupees per 100 kgs.

 

-www.kediaadvisory.com

 

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