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Published on 14/03/2018 11:08:36 AM | Source: Kedia Commodity Ltd

Turmeric trading range for the day is 6586-6922 - Kedia Commodity

Posted in Commodities Reports| #Kedia Commodity Ltd #Commodity Tips

Gold

Gold on MCX settled up 0.15% at 30377 as prices saw some safe-haven demand due to increasing concerns about turmoil in the Trump administration. U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson was fired by President Trump prompted some fresh safe-haven in gold and silver markets. The firing of a Trump cabinet official comes on the heels of Trump’s chief economic advisor quitting last week.

Other lower-level Trump administration officials have also hit the exit doors recently. Now more than ever there is the perception that the Trump presidency is in chaos. U.S. consumer prices cooled in February amid a decline in gasoline prices and a moderation in the cost of rental accommodation, the latest indication that an anticipated pickup in inflation probably will be only gradual.

Trump is seeking to impose tariffs on up to $60 billion of Chinese imports and will target the technology and telecommunications sectors, two people who had discussed the issue with the Trump administration said. Investors have moved to pricing in a March 2019 rate rise by the European Central Bank, whose dovish, go-slow message has persuaded markets to wipe out bets on an earlier move.

Gold was sold at a discount in India as demand remained subdued for a fourth straight week while buying in the rest of Asia picked up as prices fell for a third consecutive week. India's gold imports in February dropped a quarter from a year ago to 63 tonnes as higher prices curtailed demand in the world's second-biggest consumer of bullion.  Technically now Gold is getting support at 30273 and below same could see a test of 30169 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 30445, a move above could see prices testing 30513.  

Trading Ideas:   

* Gold trading range for the day is 30169-30513.

* Gold prices turned positive as the U.S. dollar lost ground after news that U.S. President Donald Trump replaced Secretary of State Rex Tillerson.

* U.S. consumer prices cooled in February, the latest indication that an anticipated pickup in inflation probably will be only gradual.

* Markets are looking to the next Fed meeting for direction on the pace of U.S. interest rate hikes this year.

Silver

Silver on MCX settled up 0.17% at 38821 amid an uptick in safe-haven demand on concerns about turmoil in the Trump administration after Secretary of State Rex Tillerson was fired. President Donald Trump fired Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, after a falling out on how best to tackle the Iran nuclear deal. Trump hired Central Intelligence Agency Director Mike Pompeo as Tillerson’s replacement.

Also adding to positive sentiment on prices was an inflation report that while in-line with forecasts did little to lift the prospect of a fourth rate hike being added to the Federal Reserve's rate-hike projections or so-called dot plot. US data showed consumer prices slowed down to 0.2% as expected from 0.5% in January, while core prices slowed down as well to 0.2% from 0.3% in January. 

On a yearly basis, consumer prices accelerated to 2.2% as expected from 2.1% in January, while core prices steadied at 1.8% in line with expectations.  New Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in his Congress testimony that hiking interest rates four times this year would be considered a "gradual pace", bolstering expectations of a March rate hike. 

The economy created 313 thousand new jobs last month, while wages slowed down, confirming Powell's expectations that labor would strengthen further before improvements in wages.   The Federal Open Market Committee will meet on March 20-21 under Powell for the first time, with policymakers expected to release three-year forecasts for inflation, growth, unemployment, and interest rates. 

Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.48% to settled at 19415 while prices up 66 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 38645 and below same could see a test of 38470 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 38970, a move above could see prices testing 39120.    

Trading Ideas:   

* Silver trading range for the day is 38470-39120.

* Silver prices rose amid an uptick in safe-haven demand on concerns about turmoil in the Trump administration after Secretary of State Rex Tillerson was fired.

* Also adding to positive sentiment on prices was an inflation report that while in-line with forecasts did little.

* President Donald Trump fired Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, after a falling out on how best to tackle the Iran nuclear deal.

Crudeoil      

Crudeoil on MCX settled down -1.46% at 3919 pressured by expectations for further gains in U.S. crude supply and production, with the EIA set to provide updated figures on Wednesday. Prices had gained earlier in the session as President Donald Trump's ouster of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson was seen as a move that would jeopardize the Iran nuclear agreement.

Also sentiments turned bearish after the news that the U.S. government expects major shale regions to boost output by 131,000 barrels a day in April, spurring fears that surging supplies will undermine OPEC’s efforts to clear a glut. Sentiment is being soured further by a forecast increase in U.S. inventories, a third consecutive weekly gain.

“The EIA report yesterday about the expected increase in shale output next month certainly weighed on things,” John Kilduff, founding partner at Again Capital, said in a phone interview.“And apparent discourse among OPEC producers, specifically the Iranians, is showing that the patience is running out with the accord, partly because of what the shale players are doing in terms of grabbing more market share.”

Crude oil has struggled to recover losses from last month’s broader market slump after topping $66 a barrel in January. While a brighter economic outlook has underpinned demand expectations, expanding American production remains a challenge to the OPEC and its allies, which are trying to prop up prices via output curbs.

In the week ahead, market participants will eye fresh weekly information on U.S. stockpiles of crude and refined products on  Wednesday to gauge the strength of demand in the world’s largest oil consumer and how fast output levels will continue to rise. Technically market is getting support at 3878 and below same could see a test of 3838 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 3986, a move above could see prices testing 4054.    

Trading Ideas:   

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 3838-4054.

* Crude oil prices settled lower as investors feared a ramp up in U.S. shale output would undermine OPEC’s efforts to cut global supplies.

* U.S. crude production, pushed up largely by shale oil drilling, is expected to rise above 11 million bpd by late 2018, taking the top spot from Russia.

* U.S. crude inventories rose by 1.2 million barrels in the week to March 9, to 428 million barrels, the American Petroleum Institute said.

Naturalgas

Naturalgas on MCX settled down -0.33% at 180.80 while prices were holding 180 level as colder than normal weather is forecast to cover most of the United States over the next 8-14 days according to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration. Inventories of natural gas remain below the 5-year average but above the 5-year average range.

Colder than normal weather will increase heating demand, which should cap natural gas inventories.  A strong weather system and cold blast will track up the Mid-Atlantic Coast and into the Northeast the next few days with heavy rain, snow, and wind. This will result in stronger than normal demand as highs reach the 30s and 40s.

A break will follow Sunday through Tuesday as highs warm back into the 40s to 60s. The West will see a barrage of weather systems that bring heavy rain and snow, along with colder than normal temperatures. The southern US will be mostly mild to warm with highs of upper 50s to 70s. Overall, demand will be HIGH.

Meanwhile, market participants looked ahead to this week's storage data due on Thursday, which is expected to show a draw in a range between 92 and 104bcf in the week ended March 9. That compares with a decline of 57 bcf in the preceding week, a fall of 53 bcf a year earlier and a five-year average drop of 97 bcf. Total natural gas in storage currently stands at 1.625tcf, according to the U.S.

Energy Information Administration. Now technically market is getting support at 179.6 and below same could see a test of 178.4 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 182.5, a move above could see prices testing 184.2.               

Trading Ideas:   

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 178.4-184.2.

* Natural gas pared gains on profit booking after prices rose on expectations of colder-than-normal weather over the next two weeks.

* Inventories of natural gas remain below the 5-year average but above the 5-year average range.

* Meanwhile, market participants looked ahead to storage data due on Thursday, which is expected to show a draw in a range between 92 and 104bcf in the week   

Copper        

Copper on MCX settled up 0.16% at 450.95 recovered from the day's low as support seen after the update that reliable supply of copper from the world’s largest producer, Chile, is under threat as unions face broad wage renegotiations across top global miners. Three-month copper on the LME rose 1.9% as workers in the largest union at Antofagasta Plc’s Los Pelambres copper mine rejected an offer for a new labour contract, paving the way for striking action.

Workers and the company would still have to go through a meditation process with the government to reach a second deal. Strong demand from the growing electric economy could be undermined by supply disruptions if wage contracts can’t be negotiated across the major producer. Also China’s lower copper imports in February weakened the sentiment on copper.

Yesterday US data showed consumer prices slowed down to 0.2% as expected from 0.5% in January, while core prices slowed down as well to 0.2% from 0.3% in January. On a yearly basis, consumer prices accelerated to 2.2% as expected from 2.1% in January, while core prices steadied at 1.8% in line with expectations.

While New Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in his Congress testimony that hiking interest rates four times this year would be considered a "gradual pace", bolstering expectations of a March rate hike. While traders are eyeing on the Federal Open Market Committee will meet on March 20-21 under Powell for the first time, with policymakers expected to release three-year forecasts for inflation, growth, unemployment, and interest rates. 

Technically now Copper is getting support at 448.4 and below same could see a test of 445.9 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 452.6, a move above could see prices testing 454.3.               

Trading Ideas:   

* Copper trading range for the day is 445.9-454.3.

* Copper prices gained tracking firmness in LME prices finished 0.5 percent higher at $6,945 amid weakness in dollar.

* China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products in February stood at 352,000 mt, down 20% month on month while up 3.5% year on year.

* Copper speculators cut their net long position by 12,627 contracts to 28,776 contracts, according to the CFTC data.

Zinc

Zinc on MCX settled up 1.47% at 213.85 gained on fresh buying tracking firmness from LME Zinc which was the only metal to witness any gains despite with negative sentiment stemming from a weaker downstream stainless steel market weighing on prices.

Meanwhile in China, stainless steel prices have struggled – some market participants have lowered their prices further to draw down their inventories. Weak demand and soft prices may weigh on if Chinese apparent demand continues to soften in the months ahead. Over the last two weeks, some 300 series-producing stainless steel mills have claimed that they will cut production in March.

While  Chinese zinc smelters are increasingly turning towards North Korea as a source of concentrates supply rather than traditional overseas partners while treatment charges (TCs) in the international market remain soft, market observers claimed.

While Chinese imports of zinc ores and concentrates have fallen 32 percent in January-July from last year, according to official statistics, North Korean imports have jumped 184 percent, making it China’s third-largest supplier – it has leapfrogged Mongolia, Morocco and Bolivia.

North Korea’s emergence as a partner for Chinese zinc smelters and strong growth in Chinese mined production this year could negate mine output cuts from Glencore, Nyrstar and MMG, which have been the main drivers of zinc’s 45-percent price gain this year. Now technically market is getting support at 212.3 and below same could see a test of 210.6 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 214.9, a move above could see prices testing 215.8.               

Trading Ideas:   

* Zinc trading range for the day is 210.6-215.8.

* Zinc prices gained after LME zinc rose 1.4 percent to $3,286 due to low level buying amid firmness in other base metals counters.

* Brazilian miner Nexa Resources SA said that it has reached a deal to end a workers' strike at its Cajamarquilla zinc smelter in Peru. 

* The spread of cash zinc to the three-month contract moved to a $3.50 discount for cash from a premium of nearly $50 in late February

Nickel

Nickel on MCX settled up 1.27% at 898.1 supported by lower inventories of nickel and China's top steelmaking city deepens output curbs to extend war on smog. China's top steelmaking city of Tangshan will order some steel mills to cut production by as much as half to improve air quality, after curbs put in place during winter expire in March, the government said.

Some steel mills that have been slow in tackling environmental pollution will have to cut production by up to half based on air quality, the Tangshan Development and Reform Commission said in a statement. As part of China's war against air pollution, Tangshan will set up different rates of production curbs in the central part of the city based on air quality, location and capacity size, the reform commission said.

China ordered 28 northern cities to cut steel output by up to half during the winter heating season from Nov. 15 to March 15 as part of an anti-pollution campaign. China’s daily steel output in January and February rose to its highest since October, according to data, even as Beijing cracked down on output due to its war on winter smog.

Mills in the world’s top producer produced 136.82 million tonnes of crude steel in January-February, up 5.9 percent from a year earlier, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed.

Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 31.49% to settled at 12410 while prices up 11.3 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 887.1 and below same could see a test of 876.2 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 904.2, a move above could see prices testing 910.4.               

Trading Ideas:   

* Nickel trading range for the day is 876.2-910.4.

* Nickel prices gained supported by lower inventories of nickel and China's top steelmaking city deepens output curbs to extend war on smog.

* Nickel ore export from the Philippines is expected to drop to 550,000 wmt in February, due to adverse weather conditions.

* China’s nickel concentrate supplies to grow as new mines in Qinghai province and Russia are set to open in 2020.

Aluminium 

Aluminium on MCX settled up 0.04% at 135.55 recovered from the day's low on speculation China may sustain supply cuts after winter production curbs expire in two days. Benchmark aluminium on the London Metal Exchange ended 0.6 per cent higher at $2,103 per tonne, after touching a December 19 low of $US2,087.50.

Also China ordered smelters in 28 northern cities to cut aluminium output by at least 30 per cent from mid-November to mid-March as part of an anti-pollution campaign. China's top steelmaking city of Tangshan will order some steel mills to cut production by as much as half to improve air quality, after curbs put in place during winter expire in March, the government said on Tuesday.

Meanwhile the discount of LME cash aluminium to the three-month contract moved to $US22 a tonne, the biggest discount in nearly five-months. This could encourage deliveries into LME warehouses and takes pressure of prices. 

While traders are eyeing on fresh update after President Donald Trump said this month he would impose tariffs of 10 per cent on aluminium imports and 25 per cent on steel imports into the United States, sparking fears of a global trade war as he risks retaliation from the likes of China, Europe and Canada.

Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7.29% to settled at 3811 while prices up 0.05 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 134.9 and below same could see a test of 134 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 136.4, a move above could see prices testing 137.          

Trading Ideas:   

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 134-137.

* Aluminium prices ended with gains on speculation China may sustain supply cuts after winter production curbs expire in two days.

* Inventories in Shanghai reached a fresh record high of 846,913 tonnes, putting pressure on prices.

* Expectations of growing surpluses of aluminium has reinforced the trend of falling discounts for the cash contract over the three-month forward, at around two-month lows of $18.

Mentha oil

Mentha oil on MCX settled down by -3.71% at 1182.9 driven by sluggish industrial demand at the spot market. Further, ample stocks position on higher supplies from Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh too weighed on mentha oil prices. As per traders, the demand for mentha from both the domestic consuming industries as well as from the export front has not shown any growth or positive result.

Also the farmers are bringing their produce in moderate amount to the market which is limiting the upside movement of prices. The presence and growth of usage of synthetic mentha is also hampering the demand and ultimately the price movement of mentha. Stock positions of mentha in MCX accredited warehouses were around 2644 drums which is same in comparison to previous day.

According to the information received from traders, there is currently not much demand for mentha from the domestic consuming industries as well as stockists. From export front, there is expectation of not any positive development in the recent times. Due to the increased production and usage of synthetic mentha in the recent years, demand for natural mentha has decreased.

The presence and growth of usage of synthetic mentha is also hampering the demand and ultimately the price movement of mentha. Also as winter season is about to end soon, the seasonal demand for mentha will also decline.  Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1386.50 per 1kg. Spot prices was down by Rs.-32.20/-.

Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.74% to settled at 1109 while prices down -45.6 rupees, now Menthaoil is getting support at 1163.2 and below same could see a test of 1143.5 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 1218.8, a move above could see prices testing 1254.7.         

Trading Ideas:   

* Menthaoil trading range for the day is 1143.5-1254.7.

* Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1386.50 per 1kg. Spot prices was down by Rs.-32.20/-.

* Mentha oil prices dropped driven by sluggish industrial demand at the spot market.

* Further, ample stocks position on higher supplies from Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh too weighed on mentha oil prices.

* Also the farmers are bringing their produce in moderate amount to the market which is limiting the upside movement of prices.

Soyabean

Soyabean on NCDEX settled up by 1.45% at 3791  amid lower buying interest from crusher as consumption of meal and oil hit by higher temperature. India’s soybean imports have hit a record high this year and more buying is expected as domestic supplies tighten following lower production last year.

Traders have signed deals to sell up to 100,000 tonnes of soybeans to India since December, shipping mainly from the African countries of Ethiopia and Benin with which the South Asian nation has concessional import duty agreements. India’s soybean imports have never previously approached 100,000 tonnes, the two sources said.

India produced around 8.3 million to 8.5 million tonnes of soybeans at the end of 2017, down from more than 11 million tonnes a year ago. Thomas Mielke, Director of Oil World, trimmed its India's soybean output forecast by 24% for 2017-18. India's 2017-18 soybean output to eight million tons compared to 10.50 million tons estimated for 2016-17.

He also trimmed global soybean for 2017-181 output to 3338.64 million tons compared to 347.98 million tons on lower output in South America. Global soybean output in 201718 turning out considerably below potential which will be caused by South American crop losses. Soybean output in South America may drop by 15.7 million tons to 169.10 million tons in 2017-18 compared to 184.83 million tons a year ago.

At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  15 Rupees to 3777 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.17% to settled at 247920 while prices up 54 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 3738 and below same could see a test of 3685 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 3821, a move above could see prices testing 3851.     

Trading Ideas:   

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 3685-3851.

* Soyabean ended with gains amid lower buying interest from crusher as consumption of meal and oil hit by higher temperature.

* India’s soybean imports have hit a record high this year and more buying is expected as domestic supplies tighten following lower production last year.

* NCDEX accredited warehouses soyabean stocks dropped by 137 tonnes to 163993 tonnes.

* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  15 Rupees to 3777 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Ref.Soyaoil

Ref.Soyaoil on NCDEX settled up by 0.88% at 790.05 on short covering after prices dropped tracking global cues amid forecast of higher stockpiles by USDA. Demand from crushers during this period is generally low, additionally  rates of oil and meal with introduction of higher import duty also hit seed purchase.

Exports of soymeal during Feb slumped multi-fold to 73,816 tons compared to 207,977 tons same period a year ago on higher prices, provisional data released by Solvent Extractors Association of India (SEA) showed.  USDA hiked 2017-18 US soybean ending stockpiles estimates to 15.10 million tons for March compared to 15.10 million tons in previous month.

It is also higher than 8.21 million tons estimated in the same period a year ago. According to United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) March estimate, India is estimated to import 35.45 lakh tons compared to earlier estimate of 36.45 lakh tons. Consumption estimate has been kept unchanged at 52.0 lakh tons.

End stocks are estimated at 2.18 lakh tons compared to earlier estimate of 3.20 lakh tons. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 767.65 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 13.51% to settled at 56050 while prices up 6.9 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 781 and below same could see a test of 772 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 796, a move above could see prices testing 802.       

Trading Ideas:   

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 772-802.

* Ref soyoil gained on short covering after prices dropped tracking global cues amid forecast of higher stockpiles by USDA.

* Exports of soymeal during Feb slumped multi-fold to 73,816 tons compared to 207,977 tons same period a year ago on higher prices.

* USDA hiked 2017-18 US soybean ending stockpiles estimates to 15.10 million tons for March compared to 15.10 million tons in previous month.

* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 767.65 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil 

Crude palm Oil on MCX settled up by 1.01% at 639.2 due to increased buying of inventories at cheapest rates available. Data released by Malaysian Palm Oil Board showed Closing stockpiles of CPO in February stood at 2.47 million tons compared to market expectation of 2-2.2 million tons fall. In January month CPO stockpiles stood at 2.55 million tons, data showed.

Exports of palm oil also slumped by 13.33% to 1.31 million tons compared to 1.51 million tons previous month, MPOB data showed. Malaysia's palm oil inventories slipped to a four-month low at the end of February as production declined more than export volumes, government data showed.

Stocks in the world's largest producer of palm oil after Indonesia fell 2.9 percent from a month earlier to 2.48 million tonnes, the lowest since October, data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) showed. Palm oil output is expected to rise on an annual basis this year, as crops shake off a 2015 dry weather El Nino impact which can last for up to two years.

Malaysian output will range between 20 million tonnes and 21 million tonnes in 2018, compared with 19.9 million tonnes last year.  Exports in February declined 13.3 percent from the previous month to 1.31 million tonnes.

Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.08% to settled at 4336 while prices up 6.4 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 631.4 and below same could see a test of 623.5 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 643.8, a move above could see prices testing 648.3.      

Trading Ideas:   

* CPO trading range for the day is 623.5-648.3.

* Crude palm oil ended with gains due to increased buying of inventories at cheapest rates available.

* Data released by Malaysian Palm Oil Board showed Closing stockpiles of CPO in February stood at 2.47 million tons.

* Exports of palm oil also slumped by 13.33% to 1.31 million tons compared to 1.51 million tons previous month, MPOB data showed.

                Crude palm oil prices in spot market dropped by 1.70 rupees and settled at 630.30 rupees.

Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed on NCDEX settled up by 0.53% at 4159 amid weak demand from crushers and higher arrivals. Increased pace of fresh crops and weak demand from crushers kept seed prices under pressure.

Mustard seed arrivals 500,000-600,000 bags compared 350,000-400,000 bags on the previous day. Restricted supplies and active buying interest from crushers and stockists is expected to render support to the market. For the year 2017-18, India’s mustard seed crop is projected at 63.3 lakh tons.

Rajasthan State government has released second advance estimated pegged total production at 31.88 lakh tonnes for year 2017-18 against the 38.08 lakh tones of prior year. The latest production estimate for rapeseed-mustard during the current rabi season is down 3.7 per cent at the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA), with a decline in sowing and productivity.

While acreage fell 0.06 per cent, yield in terms of kg per hectare decreased 5.7 per cent. As against total production of 6.57 million tonnes in the country during 2016-17, that for the current year is 6.33 mt. The area sown is estimated at 6.412 million hectares in 2017-18. Yield, from 7,399 per kg last year, is an estimated 6,979 kg in 2017-18.

In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 10 Rupees to end at 3973.5 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.81% to settled at 39560 while prices up 22 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 4120 and below same could see a test of 4080 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 4183, a move above could see prices testing 4206. 

Trading Ideas:   

* Rmseed trading range for the day is 4080-4206.

* Mustard seed prices dropped amid weak demand from crushers and higher arrivals.

* Mustard seed arrivals 500,000-600,000 bags compared 350,000-400,000 bags on the previous day.

* Daily arrivals of mustard seed increased to 300,000-400,000 bags during this week from 200,000-250,000 bags a week ago.

* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 10 Rupees to end at 3973.5 Rupees per 100 kg.

Turmeric

Turmeric on NCDEX settled up by 0.65% at 6764 due to increase in demand from spot domestic and overseas market. Moreover, the report that supplies from the new season turmeric have been lower during first 10 days March at 22,360 tonnes compared to 31,536 tonnes last year, also supported the upward trend in turmeric prices.

As per market sources, Nizamabad turmeric stocks as on now were estimated around 1.25 lakh bags as compared to around 2.00 lakh bags same time last year.  Farmers in Tamil Nadu currently have around 5 lakh bags (1 bag = 75kgs) turmeric stocks as compared to last year’s 9 lakh bags.

New crop supply (both early sown/ short duration crop and regular crop) is coming to the market. Sources expects lower Turmeric production current year amid lower stocks available in the spot market. The price of turmeric was increased. All the arrived 800 bags of hybrid turmeric were sold for increased price. 4,500 bags arrived for sale on Monday including 3,200 bags of new turmeric.

The buyers have purchased 80 per cent of the new and hybrid turmeric. The arrival of turmeric in the Regulated Marketing Committee was low with 302 bags and only 35 per cent was sold due to quality. Regarding the price of turmeric it was increased by Rs. 200 a quintal of finger turmeric and Rs. 100 a quintal of root variety in all the markets.

In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6800 Rupees gained 23.1 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.69% to settled at 9360 while prices up 44 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6674 and below same could see a test of 6586 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 6842, a move above could see prices testing 6922.      

Trading Ideas:   

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6586-6922.

* Turmeric prices gained due to increase in demand from spot domestic and overseas market.

* Moreover, the report that supplies from the new season turmeric have been lower during first 10 days March at 22,360 tonnes.

* NCDEX accredited warehouses turmeric stocks gained by 99 tonnes to 407 tonnes.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6800 Rupees gained 23.1 Rupees.

Jeera  

Jeera on NCDEX settled up by 0.44% at 14745 on expectations of strong demand for new crop. Rise in output can be attributed to conducive weather conditions and higher sowing area. However upside seen limited on expectations of higher supplies of new crop amid increased production outlook.

As per sowing report, current year Jeera sowing area reported increased in Gujarat and Rajasthan due to higher prices throughout the year. Expected sowing area to go up by 15-25% in Rajasthan and Gujarat, in the current year. As per production estimate Jeera production for 2018-19 is estimated at 379,500 MT compared to previous year’s 314,050 MT.

According to farmer estimates, jeera production in Gujarat was estimated at around 2.75 lakh tonnes (approximately 50 lakh bags weighing 55 kg each) last year, which is likely to touch 4.12 lakh tonnes this year. The carryover stock is less at about 5,500 tonnes this year. An impact of the higher crop will be seen once the crop starts arriving in bulk at the markets post February.

Jeera arrivals have started in Gujarat market, but in small quantities. New crop of jeera has started trickling in the benchmark market of Unjha in Gujarat from last week. 100-150 bags (1 bag = 55 kg) of the new crop arrived in the market and was sold at 20,200-20,500 rupees per 100 kg. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -93.8 Rupees to end at 16311.75 Rupees per 100 kg.

Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.26% to settled at 8808 while prices up 65 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 14600 and below same could see a test of 14450 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 14850, a move above could see prices testing 14950.           

Trading Ideas:   

* Jeera trading range for the day is 14450-14950.

* Jeera ended with gains on expectations of strong demand for new crop.

* However upside seen limited on expectations of higher supplies of new crop amid increased production outlook.

* NCDEX accredited warehouses jeera stocks dropped by 89 tonnes to 8504 tonnes.

* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -93.8 Rupees to end at 16311.75 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cardamom  

Cardamom on MCX settled down by -1.12% at 1070.5 on profit booking after prices gained amid falling supplies due to end of season. Reports of weak rains may hit next year's crop prospects. Expectations of revival of buying activities in the coming days on festive and marriage also supporting prices. India exported 2,230 ton cardamom during Apr-Sept 2017-18 up from 1,624 ton a year ago- showing a significant increase of 37%.

Value wise export recorded a growth of 79% due to higher per kg realization. Arrivals are expected to decline and stay limited in the coming days due to lean season and fresh crop may hit the market only from July onwards. However, recent rainfall in the cardamom growing regions that is supportive for the next season crop growth may result in some downtrend along with the forecasts of good rainfall in the cardamom-growing region during the week.

India exported 2,230 ton cardamom during Apr-Sept 2017-18 up from 1,624 ton a year ago- showing a significant increase of 37%. The Spices Board has held an e-auction of small cardamom at Puttady Spice Park in Idukki, where operations were temporarily suspended for technical maintenance and upgrades.

One e-auction will be held every week at the park till the maintenance work is completed, said A Jayatilak, Chairman, Spices Board, dispelling rumours that the facility has been shifted to Tamil Nadu.   Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 14.54% to settled at 260 while prices down -12.1 rupees, now Cardamom is getting support at 1060 and below same could see a test of 1049.5 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 1078, a move above could see prices testing 1085.5.              

Trading Ideas:   

* Cardamom trading range for the day is 1049.5-1085.5.

* Cardamom settled down on profit booking after prices gained amid falling supplies due to end of season.

* Expectations of revival of buying activities in the coming days on festive and marriage also supporting prices.

* India exported 2,230 ton cardamom during Apr-Sept 2017-18 up from 1,624 ton a year ago- showing a significant increase of 37%.

* Cardamom prices in spot market gained by 4.30 rupees and settled at 1079.30 rupees. 

Cotton

Cotton on MCX settled up by 0.1% at 20660 recovered from lows amid lower output forecast.  CAI reduced production forecast for 2017-18 crops by 500,000 bales (170 kgs) to 36.2 million compared to its February projection. The downward revision in estimates is on account of pink bollworm impact and water shortage in some states.

CAI has trimmed output estimates for both Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka by 200,000 bales each. Moreover, CAI expects closing stock in current season to drop to 2.2 million from 4.2 million bales estimated in January while opening stock is unchanged at three million bales. Consequently, association expects net reduction of stocks by 800,000 bales compared to rise of 1.2 million bales implied by earlier opening and closing stock projection.

Exports are affected on quality concerns caused by severe pink bollworm infestation in major cotton growing region. Further, higher input cost owing to rally in domestic price is likely to affect buying capacity of millers. Meanwhile, CAI hiked its domestic consumption forecast by one million bales to 33 million and exports projection is raised by 500,000 bales on month to six million.

The Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) purchased nearly 485,000 bales cotton at minimum support price (MSP) fixed by government as prices are ruling firm, said sources.  In a bid to protect the interest of farmers government asked the state agency to purchase natural fibre at state fixed MSP if prices fall below that level.

Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.92% to settled at 7701 while prices up 20 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 20540 and below same could see a test of 20420 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 20760, a move above could see prices testing 20860.       

Trading Ideas:   

* Cotton trading range for the day is 20420-20860.

* Cotton prices recovered from lows amid lower output forecast. 

* CAI reduced production forecast for 2017-18 crops by 500,000 bales (170 kgs) to 36.2 million compared to its February projection.

* CAI has trimmed output estimates for both Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka by 200,000 bales each.

* Cotton prices in spot market dropped by 150.00 rupees and settled at 19870.00 rupees. 

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