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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.78% at 48523 weighed down by fears that the U.S. Federal Reserve may provide a path for tapering its expansive monetary policy at its two-day meeting this week. Market participants will also closely scrutinise the Federal Reserve’s evolving outlook on unemployment, inflation and economic growth, as well as the likely date of a first rate hike. U.S. consumers are expecting the economy to boom over the next year, with expectations for inflation, home prices, earnings and the labor market all picking up in May, according to a monthly survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Median expectations for what inflation will look like over the next year rose for the seventh consecutive month to 4% in May. That is up from 3.4% in April and reaches a new high for the series, which launched in 2013. Expectations for inflation over the next three years increased more modestly to 3.6% from 3.1%. Speculators reduced their net long positions in COMEX gold in the week ended June 8 and raised their net long positions in silver. Physical gold demand crept up in top hubs India and China though dealers were still forced to offer discounts, while businesses limped back to life in India as some COVID-19 restrictions were eased. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.98% to settled at 10962 while prices down -380 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 48168 and below same could see a test of 47814 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 48813, a move above could see prices testing 49104.

Trading Ideas: 

* Gold trading range for the day is 47814-49104.

* Gold prices fell weighed down by a stronger dollar and easing concerns about inflation

* Investors awaited cues from the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy meeting due later this week.

* Specs cut gold bullish positions in week ended June 8- CFTC

 

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.48% at 71879 as a stronger dollar and the threat of a definite taper-talk by the Federal Reserve diminished the metal's glitter. Markets will keenly watch out for the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee's Wednesday meeting to review the Federal Funds Rate and projections. Any deviation from the rhetoric of transitory spike in inflation could harm the yellow metal's prospect in the days to come. Upbeat economic data, consumer sentiment above market expectations and jobless claims at pre-pandemic low are all threatening to set a downward course for the precious metal in the near future. Data showed that U.S. consumer prices rose 5 percent in May, the biggest annual since 2008 and more than economists had expected. But the data reinforced hopes that rising price pressures will be transitory and the central bank is unlikely to withdraw monetary support any time soon. After maintaining an elevated pace of pandemic emergency bond purchases (PEPP) for the third quarter, the European Central Bank said that inflation would remain below the central bank's target of just under 2 percent through 2023. The University of Michigan said its preliminary consumer sentiment index increased to 86.4 in the first half of this month from a final reading of 82.9 in May. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.64% to settled at 11085 while prices down -348 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 71176 and below same could see a test of 70474 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 72337, a move above could see prices testing 72796.

Trading Ideas: 

* Silver trading range for the day is 70474-72796.

* Silver dropped as a stronger dollar and the threat of a definite taper-talk by the Federal Reserve diminished the metal's glitter.

* Markets will keenly watch out for the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee's Wednesday meeting to review the Federal Funds Rate and projections.

* Speculators raised their net long positions in silver in the week ended June 8

 

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -0.21% at 5191 paring gains on profit booking after prices rose underpinned by an improved outlook for demand as increased COVID-19 vaccinations help lift travel curbs. Vehicle traffic is returning to pre-pandemic levels in North America and much of Europe and more planes are in the air as lockdowns and other restrictions are being eased, driving three weeks of gains for the oil benchmarks. The world will need a lot more oil from OPEC+ as global demand is on track to return to pre-pandemic levels at the end of next year, the International Energy Agency said on Friday, just a few weeks after saying long-term oil production must decline to reduce emissions. "OPEC+ needs to open the taps to keep the world oil markets adequately supplied," the Paris-based energy watchdog said, adding that rising demand and countries' short-term policies were at odds with the IEA's call to end new oil, gas and coal funding in a stark report issued last month. Meanwhile Goldman Sachs reiterated its projection of $80 for the Brent crude this summer as vaccine rollouts boost global economic activity and exacerbated the bullish sentiment for the commodity. U.S. oil rigs rose by six to 365, the highest since April 2020, energy services company Baker Hughes Co said in its weekly report. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -23.89% to settled at 8774 while prices down -11 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5162 and below same could see a test of 5134 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5236, a move above could see prices testing 5282.

Trading Ideas: 

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 5134-5282.

* Crude oil dropped on profit booking after prices rose underpinned by an improved outlook for demand as increased COVID-19 vaccinations help lift travel curbs.

* OPEC+ will need to boost output to meet 2022 demand recovery –IEA

* OPEC+ needs to open the taps to keep the world oil markets adequately supplied, the IEA said.

 

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 0.29% at 243.5 on forecasts for rising exports, hotter weather and higher air conditioning demand over the next two weeks. U.S. natural gas production will rise in 2021 after falling last year due to coronavirus demand destruction, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Domestic demand for gas, meanwhile, will decline for a second year in a row in 2021, EIA forecast. EIA projected dry gas production will rise to 92.18 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2021 and 93.93 bcfd in 2022 from 91.35 bcfd in 2020. That compares with an all-time high of 93.06 bcfd in 2019. Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 91.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June, up from 91.0 bcfd in May but still well below the monthly record high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. U.S. speculators boosted their net long futures and options positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchanges last week by the most since February to their highest since March as soaring global gas prices prompt buyers around the world to keep purchasing all the LNG the United States can produce. Gas prices in Europe and Asia both traded over $10 per mmBtu, with the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands at its highest since January 2014. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -11.32% to settled at 24022 while prices up 0.7 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 240.5 and below same could see a test of 237.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 245.4, a move above could see prices testing 247.4.

Trading Ideas: 

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 237.6-247.4.

* Natural gas gains on forecasts for rising exports, hotter weather and higher air conditioning demand over the next two weeks.

* U.S. natgas output to rise, demand to fall in 2021 – EIA

* U.S. speculators boosted their net long futures and options positions last week by the most since February to their highest since March

 

Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.37% at 745.85 as worries eased over supply disruption after a strike in Chile was avoided. Workers at BHP Group's Spence copper mine in top producer Chile said last week they had reached a new contract deal with the company, avoiding a strike. Yangshan copper premium fell to $22 a tonne, its lowest since 2016, indicating weak demand for imported metal into China. Copper inventories in warehouses tracked by ShFE fell for the fourth straight week on Friday to 180,967 tonnes, the lowest level since March 12. Stocks of copper in LME registered warehouses at 138,300 tonnes, up 24% since May 12 has eased worries about supplies on the LME market. This is seen in the $28 a tonne discount for the cash over the three-month contract compared with a $20 a tonne premium on April 26. Clues to Chinese demand for base metals will come this week with industrial production data for May. China plans to release state reserves of nonferrous metals copper, aluminium and zinc in a programme set to last until the end of 2021. China’s state planner last week renewed its pledge to step up monitoring of commodity prices, as domestic producer inflation hit its highest in more than 12 years. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.8% to settled at 4178 while prices down -2.8 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 742.8 and below same could see a test of 739.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 749.1, a move above could see prices testing 752.2.

Trading Ideas: 

* Copper trading range for the day is 739.6-752.2.

* Copper prices dropped as worries eased over supply disruption after a strike in Chile was avoided.

* Yangshan copper premium fell to $22 a tonne, its lowest since 2016, indicating weak demand for imported metal into China.

* Stocks of copper in LME registered warehouses at 138,300 tonnes, up 24% since May 12 has eased worries about supplies on the LME market.

 

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.27% at 242.7 after data showed that social inventories of refined zinc ingots across Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong and Hebei decreased 16,100 mt in the week ended June 11 to 136,100 mt. The stocks fell 6,600 mt from Monday June 7. Stocks in Shanghai decreased slightly as arrivals of import zinc increased and the downstream still had stockpiling demand before the holiday. In south China's Guangdong, the proportion of direct delivery to the downstream of smelters decreased, while the delivery of goods from warehouses in the downstream increased, which led to the continuous decrease in stocks. Stocks in Tianjin fell as zinc prices fell sharply yesterday, and the downstream purchases at low prices increased. U.S. consumer sentiment rebounded in early June as inflation fears subsided and households grew more optimistic about future economic growth and employment, a survey showed. The University of Michigan said its preliminary consumer sentiment index increased to 86.4 in the first half of this month from a final reading of 82.9 in May. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.29% to settled at 2752 while prices up 0.65 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 241.1 and below same could see a test of 239.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 244.2, a move above could see prices testing 245.7.

Trading Ideas: 

* Zinc trading range for the day is 239.5-245.7.

* Zinc prices gained after data showed that social inventories of refined zinc ingots decreased 16,100 mt.

* US CPI for May reached a record high in 13 years, and inflation continued to expand amid the strong economic recovery.

* European Central Bank maintained the three key interest ratios unchanged.

 

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled up by 0.76% at 1354.9 as nickel ore inventories across all Chinese ports decreased 432,000 wmt from Jun 4 to 5.51 million wmt. Data also showed that nickel ore stocks across seven major Chinese ports decreased 492,000 wmt during the same period to 3.78 million wmt. Nickel ore inventories dropped significantly this week. Shipments in the Philippine declined due to the weather, and the output of domestic ferronickel plants increased slowly with rising demand for nickel ore, which accounted for the decrease in stocks. Inventories of refined nickel in the Shanghai bonded areas remained unchanged from a week ago and stood at 9,700 mt as of June 11, showed data. German output is rebounding from its pandemic-induced slump and inflation could rise faster than currently expected, potentially affecting behaviour in the economy, the German central bank said. The national refined nickel output decreased 590 mt or 4.53% month on month to 12,400 mt in May, and operating rates stood at 57%.Among them, Gansu smelter carried out overhaul of the top-blowing furnace, but maintained the overall normal production, with the affected output within 1,000 mt. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 15.36% to settled at 1825 while prices up 10.2 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1341.1 and below same could see a test of 1327.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1364.2, a move above could see prices testing 1373.6.

Trading Ideas: 

* Nickel trading range for the day is 1327.4-1373.6.

* Nickel gained as nickel ore inventories across all Chinese ports decreased 432,000 wmt from Jun 4 to 5.51 million wmt

* Prices have been pushed up by stronger demand from the nickel-based stainless steel market in China and from the EV industry.

* Nornickel projects a 2021 market surplus of 52,000 tonnes, sharply below its prior forecast of 90,000 tonnes.

 

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.9% at 196.75 as support seen after as Euro zone industrial production was stronger than expected in April, driven by a more than doubling of durable consumer goods output from a year earlier as economies steadily reopened after COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns, data showed. China's state reserves administration plans to sell its reserves of aluminium in a programme expected to last until the end of 2021. Output of primary aluminium in China will increase until 2024, after which secondary, or recycled metal will start to claim a bigger share of plateauing consumption. China is by far the world's biggest aluminium maker, churning out a record 37.08 million tonnes in 2020. However, its government wants to cap annual smelting capacity at 45 million tonnes and producers, under pressure to reduce emissions, are looking to recycle more scrap metal instead. However downside seen limited in the glow of tightening stocks and continued robust demand from the automotive, packaging and construction sectors. Supply continues to remain quite scarce as mills have been struggling to find labour and transportation at a time when global aluminium consumption is seen rising 8% to around 69 million this year. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 8.49% to settled at 2427 while prices up 1.75 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 195.3 and below same could see a test of 193.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 197.8, a move above could see prices testing 198.7.

Trading Ideas: 

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 193.7-198.7.

* Aluminium prices gained as support seen after as Euro zone industrial production was stronger than expected in April

* China's state reserves administration plans to sell its reserves of aluminium in a programme expected to last until the end of 2021.

* Japan Q3 aluminium premium rises by 24 – 25% to 6 – yr high

 

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 1.54% at 966.7 due to rain harvesting of menthe crop will be affected and also production get affected. The crop is prone to rain because the leaves of the crop start falling due to waterlogging in the field. However upside seen limited as fresh season arrival started while the lock-down extension is impacting sentiments. Most of the farmers have planted Mentha crops and this rain is not less than acid for 50 percent of Mentha crop. As of now, daily arrival of fresh oil is relatively small (10-15 drums across Uttar Pradesh). Daily arrivals should gradually pick up to 400-500 drums in next 7-10 days. Overall post-lock-down demand will be likely to improve as demand from the health industry will likely continue also as per CIMAP (Central Institute of Medicinal and Aromatic Plants) Herbal products may boost immunity to avoid infection and demand for same has improved significantly since last year. Mentha exhibits important biological activities. For that reason, it has been used through the years as a remedy for respiratory diseases like bronchitis, sinusitis, tuberculosis, and the common cold. Due to favourable wheather condition,the production of mentha in the states has improved and is at much better terms compare to last year. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 45 Rupees to end at 1087.8 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.69% to settled at 24 while prices up 14.7 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 953.2 and below same could see a test of 939.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 979.6, a move above could see prices testing 992.5.

Trading Ideas: 

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 939.7-992.5.

* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 45 Rupees to end at 1087.8 Rupees per 360 kgs.

* Mentha gained due to rain harvesting of menthe crop will be affected and also production get affected.

* However upside seen limited as fresh season arrival started while the lock-down extension is impacting sentiments.

* Daily arrivals should gradually pick up to 400-500 drums in next 7-10 days.

 

Soyabean

Soyabean yesterday settled down by -1.69% at 6499 as Indian farmers are likely to expand their soybean planting area by more than a tenth in 2021 as record high prices for the oilseed could prompt some to switch from cultivating competing commodities such as cotton and pulses, industry officials said. China’s soybean imports in May rose from the previous month, customs data showed, as more cargoes from top supplier Brazil cleared customs. China, the world’s top importer of soybeans, brought in 9.61 million tonnes of the oilseed in May, up 29% from 7.45 million tonnes in April, when some Brazilian shipments were delayed, data from the General Administration of Customs showed. Indian farmers are likely to expand their soybean planting area by more than a tenth in 2021 as record high prices for the oilseed could prompt some to switch from cultivating competing commodities such as cotton and pulses, industry officials said. Increased production of India's main summer-sown oilseed could help the world's biggest vegetable oil importer trim costly purchases of palm oil, soyoil and sunflower oil from Indonesia, Malaysia, Argentina and Ukraine. It could also boost Indian exports of animal feed ingredient soymeal to places such as Bangladesh, Japan, Vietnam and Iran, industry officials said. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped -262 Rupees to 6846 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.33% to settled at 36485 while prices down -112 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 6371 and below same could see a test of 6244 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6601, a move above could see prices testing 6704.

Trading Ideas: 

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 6244-6704.

* Soyabean prices dropped as India's soybean planting could rise by over 10% on record prices

* China Jan-May soybean imports up 12.8% at 38.23 million tonnes

* Indian farmers are likely to expand their soybean planting area by more than a tenth in 2021

* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped  -262 Rupees to 6846 Rupees per 100 kgs.

 

Ref.Soyaoil

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled down by -0.21% at 1254 amid worries over a possible U.S. move to reduce biodiesel production. Pressure also seen after update that the government will reduce the import duty on edible oil and decision could be made soon. India is considering reducing import taxes on edible oils after cooking oil prices hit record highs last month, to reduce food costs in the world's biggest vegetable oil importer. While no decision has been made, the tax reduction could lower local prices and boost consumption, giving support to Malaysian palm oil, along with soy and sunflower oil prices, and dampening prices of local oilseeds such as rapeseed, soybean and groundnut. Indian farmers are likely to expand their soybean planting area by more than a tenth in 2021 as record high prices for the oilseed could prompt some to switch from cultivating competing commodities such as cotton and pulses, industry officials said. Increased production of India's main summer-sown oilseed could help the world's biggest vegetable oil importer trim costly purchases of palm oil, soyoil and sunflower oil from Indonesia, Malaysia, Argentina and Ukraine. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1282.6 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.29% to settled at 37715 while prices down -2.6 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1220 and below same could see a test of 1185 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1276, a move above could see prices testing 1297.

Trading Ideas: 

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1185-1297.

* Ref soyoil prices dropped amid worries over a possible U.S. move to reduce biodiesel production. 

* Pressure also seen after update that the government will reduce the import duty on edible oil and decision could be made soon. 

* Indian farmers are likely to expand their soybean planting area by more than a tenth in 2021

* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1282.6 Rupees per 10 kgs.

 

Crude palm Oil

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled down by -0.16% at 1024 as India is considering reducing import taxes on edible oils after cooking oil prices hit record highs last month, to reduce food costs in the world's biggest vegetable oil importer. Pressure also seen as Malaysia’s May stockpile to climb to an eight-month peak. Indonesia, the world's biggest palm oil producer, exported 2.64 million tonnes of palm oil and its refined products in April, down from a month earlier, data from the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) showed. That compares to 3.23 million tonnes exported in March, while April production of the vegetable oil "was relatively unchanged from March" at nearly 4.1 million tonnes, GAPKI said. The end-April stock of palm oil edged lower to 3.14 million tonnes, from 3.27 million at the end of March. Malaysia's palm oil stockpiles at the end of May likely jumped 6.3% on-month to their highest in eight months, as production rose amid sluggish exports. Inventories at the world's second-largest producer are seen at 1.64 million tonnes, their highest since last September. Production is pegged to rise 3.4% from April to 1.58 million tonnes, its highest in seven months, as plantations enter the seasonal higher production months. In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped by -62.5 Rupees to end at 1045.5 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.49% to settled at 3821 while prices down -1.6 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 980.4 and below same could see a test of 936.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1051.3, a move above could see prices testing 1078.6.

Trading Ideas: 

* CPO trading range for the day is 936.8-1078.6.

* Crude palm oil dropped as India is considering reducing import taxes on edible oils after cooking oil prices hit record highs last month 

* Indonesia's April palm oil exports at 2.64 mln tonnes – GAPKI

* May palm oil stocks rose 1.5% to 1.57 mln T – MPOB

* In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped  by -62.5 Rupees to end at 1045.5 Rupees.

 

Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed yesterday settled down by -1.18% at 6522 as U.S. rapeseed production is forecast to reach a record 1.8 million tons on record area and trend yield. Pressure also seen as Canada rapeseed production is projected at 20.5 million tons, up 1.5 million on greater area. COOIT was against any reduction in import duties on edible oils but wanted the Centre to remove the GST of 5 per cent on mustard seed and oil as it will help farmers and consumers both. European Union rapeseed production is projected to show a modest gain in 2021/22 on increased planted area and improved yield but will remain below the levels observed from 2016 to 2018. Prices rallied in recent session lifted by higher soy prices and concerns about dry Canadian planting conditions. Support also seen as crushing as increased due to rise in mustard oil demand. Stock of mustard with farmers is estimated to be 62.50 lakh tonnes and processors and stockists have a stock of six lakh tonnes of mustard. India mustard output this year is projected at 104.27 lakh tonnes. However, the Central Organisation for Oil Industry and Trade (COOIT) and the Mustard Oil Producers' Association (MOPA) have estimated the production at 89.50 lakh tonnes. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -199.5 Rupees to end at 6758.5 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.18% to settled at 60540 while prices down -78 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 6429 and below same could see a test of 6337 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6584, a move above could see prices testing 6647.

Trading Ideas: 

* Rmseed trading range for the day is 6337-6647.

* Mustard seed dropped as U.S. rapeseed production is forecast to reach a record 1.8 million tons on record area and trend yield. 

* Canada rapeseed production is projected at 20.5 million tons, up 1.5 million on greater area.

* The arrival of mustard in the mandis has decreased at all places in the country.

* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -199.5 Rupees to end at 6758.5 Rupees per 100 kg.

 

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -2.51% at 7610 as the curbs and lockdowns announced to control the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic affected trading. However downside seen limited on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh. In Nizamabad APMC in Telangana, the modal price of the finger variety turmeric was quoted at ₹6,950 a quintal. Prices are up about ₹400 since the beginning of this month. At Bangalore in Karnataka, turmeric is quoted at ₹11,500 at the APMC yard with most markets closed in the State to control the Covid-19 pandemic. In Tamil Nadu, too, the agricultural markets are closed as part of the lockdown to tackle the pandemic. Demand for exports to Bangladesh and Europe are helping turmeric prices to gain. Exporters are looking to pick up stocks from Nanded in view of its quality. Turmeric has been in demand over the last two years as it is reported to be effective in medical use, particularly in combating Covid-19. According to Spices Board data, turmeric exports during the April-December period of the last fiscal increased 34 per cent to 1.39 lakh tonnes valued at ₹1,251 crore compared with 1.03 lakh tonnes valued at ₹1,047 crore. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7498.85 Rupees dropped -44.35 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 8.48% to settled at 11380 while prices down -196 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7502 and below same could see a test of 7394 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7778, a move above could see prices testing 7946.

Trading Ideas: 

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7394-7946.

* Turmeric dropped as the curbs and lockdowns announced to control the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic affected trading. 

* However downside seen limited on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh. 

* At least 50 per cent of the crop cultivated in the Maharashtra growing regions are estimated to have arrived at the terminal agricultural markets.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7498.85 Rupees dropped -44.35 Rupees.

 

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -1.13% at 13615 as lockdown restrictions increased against rising Covid cases, slowing spot trade interest weakened market sentiments. The wholesale offers for the NCDEX grade Jeera are currently offered around Rs.14000/qtl in Unjha and in Jodhpur, the mandi offers average near Rs.13900/qtl. Over a month, the wholesale prices in Unjha and Jodhpur have gone down by Rs.400/qtl and Rs.700/qtl respectively. As India struggles against curbing the Corona pandemic, exports markets have turned subdued. The importers prefer to wait for the situation to normalize before negotiating for fresh deals. They rather prefer to clear their older stocks first and presently they feel that the older inventory may be sufficient to balance the existing demand for next few weeks easily. The new season arrivals shall continue with good numbers hence there will be ample availability in the market. However from a broader perspective, India’s exports outlook has brightened while crop is expected to be lower versus year on year. Also, the nearest export competitors i.e. Turkey and Syria may not supply much to the world due to lower exportable surplus. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -50 Rupees to end at 13800 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 10.8% to settled at 6927 while prices down -155 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13550 and below same could see a test of 13485 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 13730, a move above could see prices testing 13845.

Trading Ideas: 

* Jeera trading range for the day is 13485-13845.

* Jeera prices dropped as lockdown restrictions increased against rising Covid cases.

* As India struggles against curbing the Corona pandemic, exports markets have turned subdued.

* The importers prefer to wait for the situation to normalize before negotiating for fresh deals.

* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -50 Rupees to end at 13800 Rupees per 100 kg.

 

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.96% at 23710 as crop sowing accelerates as India's annual monsoon rains have covered two-third of the country, nearly a fortnight ahead of the normal schedule, a weather department official said, adding that conditions are favourable for further advancement into the north-western parts this week. USDA kept the production estimate unchanged but hiked its projections for U.S. 2021/22 exports, cut ending stocks. Cotton sowing area grows despite of delays. Despite sowing of cotton stretching beyond the ideal sowing time in Punjab, it is close to reaching the target for 2021-22. The state agriculture department had the target of sowing cotton on 3.25 lakh hectares the crop had been sown over 3.01 lakh hectares. New figures show global cotton stock levels are set to increase to 22m tonnes by the end of 2020/21 as the stocks-to-use ratio declines. According to the latest update from the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC), China’s stocks, however, are expected to decline as the rest of the world’s expands slightly. Cotton consumption is expected to increase by 2% to 25.3m tonnes as the global economy continues to recover. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -230 Rupees to end at 24240 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.99% to settled at 4164 while prices down -230 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 23430 and below same could see a test of 23160 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 24110, a move above could see prices testing 24520.

Trading Ideas: 

* Cotton trading range for the day is 23160-24520.

* Cotton prices dropped as crop sowing accelerates as monsoon covers two – third of India earlier than usual.

* USDA kept the production estimate unchanged but hiked its projections for U.S. 2021/22 exports, cut ending stocks.

* Cotton stock levels are set to increase to 22m tonnes by the end of 2020/21

* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -230 Rupees to end at 24240 Rupees.

 

Chana

Chana yesterday settled down by -0.39% at 5151 on profit booking ahead of sowing report which can report higher sowing under Pulses area compare with last year. However there is a strong possibility of shortage in pulses production, especially due to uncertainty over sowing this crop year due to the pandemic. The country is most likely to face scarcity of pulses this year including masoor, chana and other pulses. There could be a shortage of around 10 lakh tonne in the production of tur this year. As the apex body for the trade, IPGA is bringing it to the notice of the government well in advance to augment the supply side. However, as per trade estimates, the production for tur has been around 2.90 million tonne, urad approximately 2.06 million tonne, moong around 2 million tonne, Chana around 9 million tonne and masoor around 0.95 million tonne. India’s supply of Kabuli chickpea is expected to plunge 32 percent to 396,000 tonnes due to low carryout and very poor production prospects for all of India’s rabi (winter) season crops. Exports will fall to an estimated 50,000 tonnes, down from 115,000 tonnes each of the previous two years. The situation is so dire that India is expected to import 50,000 tonnes from Canada, Argentina and Turkey. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -45.1 Rupees to end at 5048.95 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.2% to settled at 140920 while prices down -20 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 5067 and below same could see a test of 4983 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5220, a move above could see prices testing 5289.

Trading Ideas: 

* Chana trading range for the day is 4983-5289.

* Chana dropped on profit booking ahead of sowing report which can report higher sowing under Pulses area compare with last year. 

* The country is most likely to face scarcity of pulses this year including masoor, chana and other pulses.

* India’s supply of Kabuli chickpea is expected to plunge 32 percent to 396,000 tonnes due to low carryout and very poor production prospects

* In Delhi spot market, chana dropped  by -45.1 Rupees to end at 5048.95 Rupees per 100 kgs.

 

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