Published on 16/03/2017 11:41:17 AM | Source: Kedia Commodity Ltd

Silver trading range for the day is 39682-40298 - Kedia Commodity

Posted in Commodities Reports | #Kedia Commodity Ltd #Commodity Tips


Gold

Gold on MCX settled down -0.32% at 27985 just ahead of FED announcement while Comex Gold rallied to see gain's by 1.6 percent to settled at $1,217.81 an ounce after rising to $1,219.36, the highest since March 7. It was on track for its biggest one-day jump since September as support seen after the Federal Reserve announced an increase to its key short-term interest rate on Wednesday, but the metal’s price reaction isn’t quite the head scratcher that it seems to be.

The central bank said in its policy statement that further hikes would only be "gradual," with officials sticking to their outlook for two more rate hikes this year and three more in 2018. The US dollar index fell to a two-week low, helping lift gold which is denominated in dollars and so became cheaper for holders of other currencies, while the 10-year Treasury yields tumbled and U.S. stock markets extended gains. Meanwhile in Britain, concerns have increased over a second Scottish independence referendum and the triggering of Article 50, which would formally begin British negotiations to leave the European Union. Investors was also focusing on Dutch elections, which have been boosting gold's safe-haven appeal.

As the Party for Freedom is seen as having little chance of coming to power, but a strong election performance for the group that says it wants to "de-Islamicise" the Netherlands would fuel worries over a surprise result in French presidential elections in April and May. Now Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust rose 0.36 percent to 834.99 tonnes on Tuesday from Monday.

Holdings rose for a second straight session after outflows last week. Technically market is getting support at 27910 and below same could see a test of 27835 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 28057, a move above could see prices testing 28129.     

Trading Ideas:  

*Gold trading range for the day is 27835-28129.

*Gold prices rose as the dollar fell after the U.S. Federal Reserve stuck to a less hawkish stance on further interest rate hikes this year.

*Fed raised interest rates for the second time in three months, a move spurred by steady economic growth and strong job gains.

*In Britain, concerns have increased over a prolonged and painful process of the U.K.'s exit from EU, as Scotland mulled a possible second independence referendum.

               

Silver

Silver on MCX settled down -0.09% at 40045 traded in the range as investors prepared for a rate hike by the Fed while awaiting what Chair Janet Yellen says about the future path of interest rates. While Comex Silver rose 2.3 percent at $17.22 an ounce as the Fed raised interest rates but kept its rate hike outlook on hold through 2019. Overnight, the market noted the widely expected fed rate hike of 0.25% on Wednesday by the FOMC, which marked the highest Fed Funds rate since October 2008, with up to three increases seen this year.

"The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data," the latest statement said. Fed Chair Janet Yellen fielded a raft of questions concerning the Fed’s decision to raise rates; future monetary policy decisions and the current as well as future prospects of the U.S. economy.

Yellen struck a somewhat dovish tone, as she said the US central bank would continue to provide accommodative monetary policy to support the US economy but warned against a prolonged period of lower rates in order to avoid a situation which forces the Fed to “raise rates rapidly." Meanwhile the bullion held up relatively well amid a raft of U.S. economic data releases, as inflation data and U.S. retail sales matched forecasts. Technically market is getting support at 39864 and below same could see a test of 39682 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 40172, a move above could see prices testing 40298.      

Trading Ideas:  

*Silver trading range for the day is 39682-40298.

*Silver prices gained shrugging off a Fed rate hike and language that suggested at least two more ahead this year.

* Fed said in its policy statement that further hikes would only be "gradual," with officials sticking to their outlook for two more rate hikes this year and three more in 2018.

*The Labor Department said consumer prices rose 0.2% in February, while the Commerce Department said retail sales climbed 0.1%.

               

Crudeoil

Crudeoil on MCX settled up 1.34% at 3178 rallied in yesterday session snapping a 7-session losing streak as government data confirmed a surprising drop in U.S. oil inventories. Prices surged on Wednesday after a slew of market reports and official data offered some hope that a near three-year global glut in oil is coming to an end, albeit more slowly than many anticipated. Crude oil prices bounced off their lowest levels since the OPEC agreed at the end of last year to cut crude production, with an an initial surge evaporating as stockpiles remained high.

Data from the US EIA showed U.S. crude stocks fell last week, the first weekly decline after nine straight increases. Crude inventories fell 237,000 barrels in the week to March 10. While market had forecast an increase of 3.7 million barrels. EIA/S The inventories have been closely watched by oil traders to determine whether the OPEC agreement to cut output is reducing the global glut.

Crude oil bulls were also encouraged after the International Energy Agency said in its monthly oil report that demand should overtake supply in the first half of this year. Although the IEA reported that global inventories increased in January for the first time in six months, it was more optimistic surrounding the 2017 outlook as a whole and commented that there would be a deficit of 500,000 bpd for the first six months of 2017 if OPEC complied with production curbs.

This was a more optimistic assessment that in Tuesday’s OPEC report and helped put upward pressure on prices with WTI advancing to the $49.80 area. Technically market is getting support at 3149 and below same could see a test of 3119 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 3210, a move above could see prices testing 3241.        

Trading Ideas:  

*Crudeoil trading range for the day is 3119-3241.

*Crude oil gained after industry data showed a surprise drawdown in U.S. crude stockpiles.

*The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that crude oil inventories declined by 237,000 barrels in the week ended March 10.

*Global oil inventories rose for the first time in January as the market grappled with a swell in production last year.

               

Naturalgas

Naturalgas on MCX settled up 0.72% at 195.40 pushed higher bouncing back from heavy losses in the prior session as forecasts showing cooler weather on the way boosted the heating fuel. Snow showers and gusty winds remain in the wake of Tuesday’s powerful winter storm that brought a wintry mess to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, according to forecasters at NatGasWeather.com.

Changes in seasonal temperatures are a pivotal factor for natural gas markets, and warmer winters mean weaker demand. Natural gas consumption spikes during winter months as millions of people crank up the heat, while consumption patterns descend into valleys in the spring and fall, with a smaller peak in the summer.

A bout of warm weather during winter can upend gas demand forecasts. And that is exactly what happened this year. According to NOAA, the U.S. just posted its second warmest February on record, dating back to when data collection began in the 19th century. Average temperatures were 7.3 degrees higher than average. Heading into winter, natural gas traders are expected colder temperatures to help draw down on record high inventory levels.

But it wasn’t to be. After mild temperatures swept across the continent for long stretches of February, natural gas spot prices crashed by the end of the month, down more than a third compared to December highs. Meanwhile, now participants looked ahead to weekly storage data due on Thursday, which is expected to show a draw of 60bcf in the week ended March 10.

That compares with a withdrawal of 68bcf in the preceding week, 1 billion a year earlier and a five-year average drop of 85bcf. Technically market is getting support at 192.1 and below same could see a test of 188.9 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 197.9, a move above could see prices testing 200.5.           

Trading Ideas:  

*Naturalgas trading range for the day is 188.9-200.5.

*Natural Gas recovered to close at 195.40 as forecasts showing cooler weather on the way boosted the heating fuel.

*Temperatures are expected to remain much colder than normal through the end of the week.

*Traders are looking ahead to weekly storage data which is expected to show a draw of 60bcf in the week ended March 10.

               

 Copper

Copper on MCX settled up 0.34% at 386.8 bolstered by a weaker dollar and continuing supply problems, including stoppages at the world's two biggest mines. Prices last week fell to their lowest level since Jan. 10 at $5,652 a tonne. The Fed raised interest rates on Wednesday for the second time in three months, a move spurred by steady economic growth, strong job gains and confidence that inflation is rising to the central bank's target.

China's Premier Li Keqiang reassured investors on Wednesday that the world's second-largest economy and top metals consumer was strong and not at risk of a hard landing following recent buoyant economic data. Escondida plans to restart operations after striking workers again rejected an invitation to return to negotiations.

A strike at Peru's top copper mine, Cerro Verde, may end next week if the labour ministry declares it illegal, the head of the union said on Tuesday. Chile-based Antofagasta said copper prices will continue rising this year after an increase of 17% in 2016. Antofagasta expects deficit in copper supply in 2017, so copper prices will not drop to a low seen in 2016.

Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.99% to settled at 15928 while prices up 1.3 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 383.8 and below same could see a test of 380.6 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 389.5, a move above could see prices testing 392.  

Trading Ideas:  

*Copper trading range for the day is 380.6-392.

*Copper gained bolstered by a weaker dollar and continuing supply issues including stoppages at the world's two biggest mines of the metal.

*Copper market may see deficit for 2017 after prolonged disruptions at the world's two largest copper mines, Grasberg in Indonesia and Escondida in Chile

*Escondida plans to restart operations after striking workers again rejected an invitation to return to negotiations.

                      

Zinc

Zinc on MCX settled up 1.89% at 183.7 as Chinese buying had been supporting the market. China’s inventories in Shanghai, Guangdong and Tianjin decreased. This may give some confidence to investors. China's economy is set to log steady growth and there is no scope for hard landing, Premier Li Keqiang said. Nonetheless, the economy faces significant external risks, he told reporters after the conclusion of the annual national legislative session. China targets about 6.5 percent economic growth this year, which is slower than the 6.7 percent expansion achieved in 2016.

Trader are eyeing on China as China historically been a major importer of zinc concentrates to top up domestic supply to its smelters. It should in theory be feeling the raw materials pinch, particularly since concentrates imports slumped 49 percent last year and were down again in January to the tune of 7 percent.

The Bank of Japan kept monetary policy steady and maintained a cautiously optimistic view on the economy, signalling that no expansion of monetary stimulus was forthcoming in the near future. In a widely expected move, the BOJ maintained the 0.1 percent interest it charges on a portion of excess reserves that financial institutions park at the central bank.

Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 15.34% to settled at 5676 while prices up 3.4 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 180.7 and below same could see a test of 177.7 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 185.4, a move above could see prices testing 187.1.    

Trading Ideas:  

*Zinc trading range for the day is 177.7-187.1.

*Zinc prices ended with gains as Chinese buying had been supporting the market.

*China's central bank raised short-term interest rates for the third time in as many months.

*Zinc daily stocks at Shanghai exchange came up by 572 tonnes.

               

Nickel

Nickel on MCX settled down -0.19% at 671.50 traded in the range as trader having a muted response to the Fed’s decision to hike rates.

The rate hike supported the US dollar, and while that should presure dollar-denominated nickel right now supply side developments are stealing the show. Nickel outlook cautiously turning positive on the speculation that deficit may widen to 100 thousand tonnes in 2017, but major uncertainties on the supply side to persist as Indonesia to resume export of unprocessed ore and demand from China likely to soften while nickel exchange inventories are running high.

After nickel market moved into a minor deficit in 2016, market expect the deficit to expand to a substantial 100 thousand tonnes in 2017. However,market see major risks, which could materially affect our base case forecast. From the demand perspective, the growth of Chinese stainless demand for nickel units is likely to slow down given remarkably strong growth in 2016.

Nickel prices experienced a sell-off earlier this week following the sentiment that the commission on Appointments might reject confirming Regina Lopez as the head of the DENR. Lopez was instrumental in implementing the mining inspections as well as the suspensions. Ms. Lopez’s crackdown on the mining industry has been met with stiff opposition.

At first, when the mining inspections were announced market participants doubted that the government would actually enforce strict regulations, not wanting to give up the revenue that comes from mining. But, this was not the case. Even now, Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte continues to aggressively target the industry. Technically market is getting support at 666.2 and below same could see a test of 660.8 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 677.9, a move above could see prices testing 684.2.           

Trading Ideas:  

*Nickel trading range for the day is 660.8-684.2.

*Nickel prices dropped after traded in the range as trader having a muted response to the Fed’s decision to hike rates.

*Nickel ore exports from the Philippines to China are expected to fall to 36.40 million WMT in 2017 due to the declines both in reserves and grades.

*Major market traders predicted that nickel ore available for exports in Indonesia are about 8-10 million tonnes or 80,000-100,000 tonnes in nickel content. 

               

Aluminium

Aluminium on MCX settled up 0.82% at 123.3 tracking LME aluminium prices gained 1.5 percent to end at $1,887 bolstered by a weaker dollar. As expected, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate in response to the improving economy. The Fed has lifted its target rate by a quarter point to a range of 0.75% to 1%.Earlier this month, Fed Chair Janet Yellen telegraphed today's action by saying the Fed would raise rates barring any unpleasant economic surprises.

China's central bank raised short-term interest rates for the third time in as many months, a day after the end of the annual session of parliament where leaders warned that tackling debt risks would be a top policy priority this year.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) raised interest rates by 10 basis points on both medium-term lending facility (MLF) loans and its open market operation reverse repurchase agreements. China's economy is set to log steady growth and there is no scope for hard landing, Premier Li Keqiang said. Nonetheless, the economy faces significant external risks, he told reporters after the conclusion of the annual national legislative session.

China targets about 6.5 percent economic growth this year, which is slower than the 6.7 percent expansion achieved in 2016. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.71% to settled at 1814 while prices up 1 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 122.4 and below same could see a test of 121.4 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 123.9, a move above could see prices testing 124.4.       

Trading Ideas:  

*Aluminium trading range for the day is 121.4-124.4.

*Aluminium gained tracking LME aluminium prices gained 1.5 percent to end at $1,887 bolstered by a weaker dollar.

*China's Premier Li Keqiang reassured investors that the economy was strong and not at risk of a hard landing following recent buoyant economic data.

* Aluminum daily stocks at Shanghai exchange came up by 39758 tonnes.

               

Mentha oil

Mentha oil on MCX settled down by -1.96% at 1003.9 on fresh selling after the speculation that sowing activity had been inceresed in key production area of UP. Pressure also seen on account of muted demand from major consuming industries in the domestic spot market. Further, ample stocks position on higher supplies from major producing belts of Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh, too influenced mentha oil prices. Sources mentioned that nearly 14500 MT of mint products were exported in six months of the current financial year.

This implies that export demand for the complete financial year can be between 27000 and 29000 MT quite cheaper, versus 23000 of total exports last year. Farmers are keeping most of the stocks in their hands. Most buyers are willing to buy at these levels. Since farmers are keeping most of stocks, thus whenever requirement arises, industry people will be purchasing from the farmers. This will be another bullish price driver. Indian markets had reported higher sowing for current year.

Traders had estimated earlier that the total production in the range of 35000-37000 tons for this year, and currently it appears that the average estimate might be reduced to 30000 tons due to lower plantings on falling prices in the last two years. At Sambhal market arrivals were reported at 70 Drums(1-drum=180kg), higher by 20 Drums(1-drum=180kg) from previous trading day. Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1153.30 per 1kg. Spot prices was down by Rs.-2.40/-.

Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.13% to settled at 3356 while prices down -20.1 rupees, now Menthaoil is getting support at 994.6 and below same could see a test of 985.3 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 1019.6, a move above could see prices testing 1035.3.  

Trading Ideas:  

*Menthaoil trading range for the day is 985.3-1035.3.

*Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1153.30 per 1kg. Spot prices was down by Rs.-2.40/-.

*Menthaoil prices dropped on fresh selling after the speculation that sowing activity had been inceresed in key production area of UP.

* Further, ample stocks position on higher supplies from major producing belts of Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh, too influenced prices.

*At Sambhal market arrivals were reported at 70 Drums(1-drum=180kg), higher by 20 Drums(1-drum=180kg) from previous trading day.

               

Soyabean

Soyabean on NCDEX settled up by 0.98% at 2885 on short covering boosted by increase in meal exports. Reports from SEA showed that India exported 207,977 tonnes soymeal in February, up from 29,950 tonnes in the year - ago period. Further, higher prices in international markets for soyabean too added support to domestic soyabean prices.

Though, expectations of plentiful South American supply capped some gains. Data published by the Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA) showed bean arrivals in local mandis during February fell by 28% compared to previous month as farmers were not willing to sell crops at lower prices. Arrivals during February fell to 650,000 tons as compared to 900,000 tons in January. Soybean crushing has also dropped to 750,000 tons as compared to 900,000 tons in the same period a month ago, SOPA said in its Estimated Supply & Demand of Soybean and Soybean Meal till February.

China’s February soybean imports surged by 23% year-on-year to 5.54 million tonnes it is the highest volume since the year 2010, according to the figures released by the General Administration of Customs of China. However, the imports are 28% lower from 7.66 million tonnes in January this year.

China’s cumulative soybean imports for January and February 2017 stood at 13.19 million tonnes, up 30% (10.17 million tonnes) from the corresponding period last year. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  5 Rupees to 2991 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically now Soyabean is getting support at 2866 and below same could see a test of 2848 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 2897, a move above could see prices testing 2910.     

Trading Ideas:  

*Soyabean trading range for the day is 2848-2910.

*Soyabean prices ended with gains on short covering boosted by increase in meal exports.

*Arrivals during February fell to 650,000 tons as compared to 900,000 tons in January.

*NCDEX accredited warehouses soyabean stocks gained by 1159 tonnes to 216028 tonnes.

*At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  5 Rupees to 2991 Rupees per 100 kgs.

 

Ref.Soyaoil

Ref.Soyaoil on NCDEX settled up by 0.58% at 634.1 amid buying at lower level tracking firmness in spot demand. Market participants are avoiding big commitment for commodity as supply of edible oil seen easily available throughout the year without any disruption and uncertainty about prices due to weakening futures market. On the other hand, demand for refined soy oil from retailers is as per requirement, while big players are divided for import of edible oil due to low price gap within oil complex.

India's booming edible oil imports are expected to decline or hold flat in the year to October 2017, failing to grow for the first time in six years, as near record domestic oilseed output boosts supplies, industry executives said. India, the world's biggest edible oil importer, is expected to purchase about 14 to 14.5 million tonnes of vegetable oil this year, compared with 14.5 million tonnes in 2015/16. India's edible oil purchases - mainly palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia and soyabean oil from Argentina - have risen each year since 2010/11, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data, growing at an average of around 11 per cent a year. B.V. Mehta, executive director of Solvent Extractors Association of India estimated Indian edible imports this year will fall to around 14 million tonnes this year.

At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 657.2 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.44% to settled at 54640 while prices up 3.65 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 631 and below same could see a test of 627 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 639, a move above could see prices testing 643.      

Trading Ideas:  

*Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 627-643.

*Ref soyoil prices ended with gains amid buying at lower level tracking firmness in spot demand.

* India's booming edible oil imports are expected to decline or hold flat in the year to October 2017, failing to grow for the first time in six years.

*India's vegetable oil imports have declined by 19 per cent to 1.02 million tonnes for the month of January 2017.

*At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 657.2 Rupees per 10 kgs.

 

Crude palm Oil

Crude palm Oil on MCX settled up by 1.3% at 528.6 tracking firmness in spot demand amid supply shortage worries from Malaysia. Palm oil output in Malaysia dropped by 1.43% to 1.25 million tons as compared to 1.27 million tons in January, data published by Malaysian Palm Oil Board showed. Closing stockpiles for month of February also dropped 5.32% to 1.45 million tons as compared to 1.54 million in January. Malaysia is still negotiating with Indonesia on standardising the export duty structure for crude palm oil (CPO).

Malaysia hopes to work together with Indonesia on standardising the price structure, Minister of Plantation Industries and Commodities Datuk Seri Mah Siew Keong told. He said Malaysia hoped to discuss the possibility of having a common tax structure with Indonesia so as not to be in conflict with the world’s palm oil trade,” he said. Refiners in Malaysia are disgruntled that they were not getting competitively-priced CPO due to the mismatch in duty structure between Malaysia and Indonesia. The mismatch in the CPO export duty structure had led to a discount of between US$15 and US$30 per tonne in the trading of various palm oil products between Indonesia and Malaysia.

Mah was confident the CPO export duty structure could be harmonised for the benefit of the industry. Malaysia is the second largest producer and export of CPO and palm related products after Indonesia. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.52% to settled at 3759 while prices up 6.8 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 524.9 and below same could see a test of 521.2 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 532.4, a move above could see prices testing 536.2.           

Trading Ideas:  

*CPO trading range for the day is 521.2-536.2.

*Crude palm oil prices ended with gains tracking firmness in spot demand amid supply shortage worries from Malaysia.

*Palm oil output in Malaysia dropped by 1.43% to 1.25 million tons as compared to 1.27 million tons in January, data published by MPOB showed.

*Closing stockpiles for month of February also dropped 5.32% to 1.45 million tons as compared to 1.54 million in January.

*Crude palm oil prices in spot market gained by 3.10 rupees and settled at 541.70 rupees.

                         

Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed on NCDEX settled up by 0.66% at 3827 on short covering tracking firm in demand after prices dropped on oversupply woes. Crushers have covered their near term requirement in last few days at lower level due to which they are reluctant to purchase at higher level. Further, market participants expects arrivals to rise in the most of the local madis as 75% of harvesting will get completed in key mustard growing areas.

Meanwhile, new mustard seed arrivals across the country totaled at 225,000 bags against 485,000 on previous session and crop quality is better than last year. India's mustard output is estimated to rise to 6.9 mln tn in 2016-17 (Jul-Jun), from 5.8 mln tn a year ago, due to better yield and favourable weather, a survey done by the Central Organisation for Oil Industry and Trade and Mustard Oil Producers Association showed.

Mustard output in Rajasthan, the largest producer, is seen at 3.1 mln tn this year, up from 2.6 mln tn last year, the survey showed. India's carryover stock of mustard seed at the end of February is seen at 250,000 tn, higher from 150,000 tn a year ago, due to lower demand for the crop from millers and meal exporters last year, industry officials said.

Taking into account production and carryover stocks of the oilseed, total availability of mustard was estimated at 7.1 mln tn in 2016-17. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 12.9 Rupees to end at 3754.65 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically now Rmseed is getting support at 3809 and below same could see a test of 3790 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 3842, a move above could see prices testing 3856.             

Trading Ideas:  

*Rmseed trading range for the day is 3790-3856.

*Mustard seed prices gained on short covering tracking firm in demand after prices dropped on oversupply woes.

*New mustard seed arrivals across the country totaled at 225,000 bags against 485,000 on previous session.

*Further, market participants expects arrivals to rise in the most of the local madis as 75% of harvesting will get completed

* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 12.9 Rupees to end at 3754.65 Rupees per 100 kg.

               

Turmeric               

Turmeric on NCDEX settled down by -1.03% at 6550 as arrivals may gather further momentum amid weak domestic and export buying. Demand from stockists is unlikely to pick in the near term as they are expecting prices to decline further in view of bumper output reports.

Traders are expecting a bumper crop this year as not only the acreage was higher but weather remained favourable. India's Apr-Sept turmeric export stood at 59,000 ton up 47% on year, according to Spices Board data. New crop arrivals have started in all the major producing centres of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Maharashtra, Odisha. Production in the ongoing season is expected to increase mainly on higher sowing area and favourable weather conditions in Maharashtra, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh etc. According to trade sources turmeric output is expected to be around 7.5-8 million bags. India's Apr-Sept turmeric export stood at 59,000 ton up 47% on year, according to Spices Board data. At Nizamabad market, arrivals were reported at 30000 quintals, higher by 15000 quintals from previous day’s arrivals.

The price of the spot turmeric was decreased.The new turmeric fetched at Rs. 8,200 a quintal. The finger turmeric decreased by Rs. 150 to 200 a quintal and root variety by Rs. 100 a quintal. At the Erode Turmeric Merchants Association Sales yard finger turmeric sold at Rs. 5,299 to 8,709 a quintal, root variety sold at Rs. 5,091 to 7,212 a quintal.  

In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6512.5 Rupees dropped -30.35 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.2% to settled at 11820 while prices down -68 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6496 and below same could see a test of 6444 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 6630, a move above could see prices testing 6712.  

Trading Ideas:  

*Turmeric trading range for the day is 6444-6712.

*Turmeric prices dropped as arrivals may gather further momentum amid weak domestic and export buying.

*At Nizamabad market, arrivals were reported at 30000 quintals, higher by 15000 quintals from previous day’s arrivals.

*NCDEX accredited warehouses turmeric stocks gained by 278 tonnes to 647 tonnes.

*In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6512.5 Rupees dropped -30.35 Rupees.

               

Jeera

Jeera on NCDEX settled up by 0.69% at 16855 on reports of lower production estimates in Gujarat and improved exports in 2016/17 financial year. On the export front, Jeera exports from country increase by 26.9% to 1.33 lt for the calendar year 2016 while the exports increase by 36.7% to 93,724 tons in first 9 month of marketing year 2016/17.

Lower carryover stock coupled with higher export demand may push up jeera prices, as traders fear tight supply conditions in the coming months. The carryover stock has dipped to about 2 lakh bags as against the normal 20-25 lakh bags, thereby reducing the availability even as the demand for exports and domestic consumption remains firm, sources said.

Turkey and Syria, India’s key competitors in the international market, are less likely to add supplies as the production in these countries is believed to hover at around 12,000 tonnes and 20,000 tonnes, respectively. Rajkot market in Rajkot(Guj.), estimated market supply was at 3720 quintal, up by 120 quintal from previous trading day. At Anandpur Kalu(Raj.) market in Pali(Raj.), total arrivals are at 500 quintals, higher by 100 quintals as compared to previous day.

At Unjha market in Mehsana , sources reported arrivals at 22000 quintals, down by 20000 quintals as compared to previous day. Jeera production in the country is likely to be around 3.4-3.8 lakh tonnes, which is about 10-12 per cent lower than last year. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -126.05 Rupees to end at 17090.6 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically now Jeera is getting support at 16760 and below same could see a test of 16660 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 16960, a move above could see prices testing 17060.     

Trading Ideas:  

*Jeera trading range for the day is 16660-17060.

*Jeera prices ended with gains on reports of lower production estimates in Gujarat and improved exports.

*The carryover stock has dipped to about 2 lakh bags as against the normal 20-25 lakh bags.

*NCDEX accredited warehouses jeera stocks gained by 75 tonnes to 87 tonnes.

*In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -126.05 Rupees to end at 17090.6 Rupees per 100 kg.

               

Cardamom

Cardamom on MCX settled up by 0.17% at 1394.8 on late short covering after prices dropped due to weak demand and report of availability of Guatemala cardamom in some parts of north India. At present demand from stockists is poor because of year-end consideration though stocks are tight with them. However, some exporters active in producing centres hoping fresh export contract for the coming Ramzan festival.

Poor South West and North East monsoon is likely to impact adversely on the production of cardamom for the coming season as well. Cardamom prices are likely to trade range bound to firm for the coming couple of weeks. According to estimates, cardamom production for the current year is around 18,000 ton down from 28,000 tons a year ago showing a fall of 35.7% on year.

India exported 1,625 ton cardamom during Apr-Sept versus 2,026 ton a year ago. Upcountry dealers as well as exporters were covering as it has become clear that no arrival of fresh cardamom will take place till the next season picking begins, by mid-June. Arrivals last week stood at 295 tonnes as against 390 tonnes the previous week. The auction average moved up, vacillating between Rs. 1,192 and Rs. 1,280 a kg.

Exports of small cardamom during April-September 2016 have dropped by 20 per cent in volume and 22 per cent in value realisation from that of the same period the last fiscal. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.49% to settled at 768 while prices up 2.4 rupees, now Cardamom is getting support at 1384.6 and below same could see a test of 1374.3 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 1402.6, a move above could see prices testing 1410.3.     

Trading Ideas:  

*Cardamom trading range for the day is 1374.3-1410.3.

*Cardamom gained on late short covering after prices dropped due to weak demand and report of availability of Guatemala cardamom.

*At present demand from stockists is poor because of year-end consideration though stocks are tight with them.

*Poor South West and North East monsoon is likely to impact adversely on the production of cardamom for the coming season as well.

* Cardamom prices in spot market dropped by 5.00 rupees and settled at 1430.40 rupees. 

   

Cotton

Cotton on MCX settled up by 1.19% at 21310 on late short covering afterprices dropped due to weak demand from traders and stockists at the spot market. Besides, improved supplies from major producing belts also influenced cotton. Lower prices have attracted good export order from Bangladesh and Vietnam, whereas large quantity of cotton is expected to export to Australia.

Demand for Indian cotton is expected to rise after India's FOB basis over the ICE first month futures marginally narrowed to 682 as compared to 700 on previous working day in India. International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) forecasted India's cotton production to rise by 2% to 5.9 million tons, as area expands by 7% to 11.2 million hectares.

About 22.708 million bales of cotton have arrived across India till March 9 where 6.44 million bales arrived in Maharashtra and 5.352 million bales came in Gujarat, per Cotton Corporation of India. Arrivals of cotton in northern India increased 37% on year during Oct-Feb to 3.63 mln bales (1 bale = 170 kg), Bathinda-based Indian Cotton Association said in a monthly report. However, the rise in supplies is a result of low base effect as over 50% of crop in Punjab was destroyed by severe white fly attack last year.

Traders said arrivals so far in north India were around 20% below normal for this time of the year. According to Cotton Association of India, the country's arrival is estimated at 15.78 mln bales as on January end, 17% lower than 19.11 mln bales a year ago. Technically now Cotton is getting support at 21080 and below same could see a test of 20850 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 21440, a move above could see prices testing 21570. 

Trading Ideas:  

*Cotton trading range for the day is 20850-21570.

*Cotton prices ended with gains on late short covering afterprices dropped due to weak demand from traders and stockists at the spot market.

*Lower prices have attracted good export order from Bangladesh and Vietnam, whereas large quantity of cotton is expected to export to Australia.

*International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) forecasted India's cotton production to rise by 2% to 5.9 million tons.

**Cotton prices in spot market dropped by 100.00 rupees and settled at 20630.00 rupees.

               

-www.kediaadvisory.com

 

Views express by all participants are for information & acadamic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before refering below views. Click Here For Disclaimer