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Published on 12/10/2018 12:35:42 PM | Source: Kedia Commodity Ltd

Silver trading range for the day is 38156-39406 - Kedia

Posted in Commodities Reports| #Kedia Commodity Ltd #Commodity Tips

Gold

Gold on MCX settled up 1.94% at 31991 as tumbling global stock markets sent investors rushing to the safe-haven asset. Wall Street extended its slide to a sixth session on Thursday after European stocks slumped to a 21-month low, pointing to growing risk aversion across global markets. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump, for a second day, criticized the Federal Reserve, calling its interest rate increases a “ridiculous” policy that was making it more expensive for his administration to finance its growing deficits. The Fed increased rates last month for the third time this year and is widely expected to raise them again in December.

Worries about the economic impact of the Sino-U.S. trade war, a spike in U.S. bond yields this week and caution ahead of earnings seasons have all been cited as potential reasons behind the selloff, the biggest market rout since February. U.S. President Donald Trump launched a second day of criticism against the Fed on Thursday, calling its interest rate increases a “ridiculous” policy that was making it more expensive for his administration to finance its escalating deficits. U.S. consumer prices rose less than expected in September, held back by a slower increase in the cost of rent and falling energy prices, as underlying inflation pressures appeared to cool slightly. Investors searching for perpetrators and victims in this week’s U.S. stock market selloff pointed to a familiar source: number-crunching fund managers and machines. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 16.69% to settled at 14759 while prices up 610 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 31610 and below same could see a test of 31229 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 32193, a move above could see prices testing 32395.       

Trading Ideas:   

*   Gold trading range for the day is 31229-32395.

*   Gold prices jumped as tumbling global stock markets sent investors rushing to the safe-haven asset.

*   Investors increasingly opting for the safety of the greenback as the U.S.-China trade war unfolded against a backdrop of rising U.S. interest rates.

*  The Federal Reserve’s policy rates are “in a good position” after several hikes and the central bank doesn’t need to do much more to normalise its once ultra-easy policy.

Silver

Silver on MCX settled up 1.05% at 38889 as tumbling stock markets on fears over rising bond yields and rates drove investors toward safe havens. Slowing global growth and trade tensions also helped return the yellow metal return to above $1,200 an ounce, a perch that has become a gold standard in itself for bullion in recent weeks, proving its standing as a strong hedge to fiat currencies. China’s latest attempts at restricting outward investment by its residents show just how nervous policymakers in the world’s second largest economy are about possible capital flight spurred by a broadening Sino-U.S. trade war. International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde warned countries against engaging in trade and currency wars that hurt global growth and imperil “innocent bystanders.” US consumer prices rose less than expected in September, held back by a slower increase in rent and falling energy prices, as underlying inflation pressures appeared to cool.

The consumer price index (CPI) increased 0.1% last month after rising 0.2% in August. In the 12 months through September, the CPI increased 2.3%, slowing from August's 2.7% advance. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week but remained near a 49-year low, and the increase appeared unlikely to refuted the view that the US labour market remains strong. Some data to monitor today include Germany’s consumer prices in September, and US import prices in September and consumer confidence in October. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.22% to settled at 22829 while prices up 404 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 38522 and below same could see a test of 38156 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 39147, a move above could see prices testing 39406.   

Trading Ideas:   

*Silver trading range for the day is 38156-39406.

* Silver jumped as tumbling stock markets on fears over rising bond yields and rates drove investors toward safe havens.

*  U.S. President Donald Trump, criticized the Fed, calling its interest rate increases a “ridiculous” policy that was making it more expensive for his administration.

*  Fed increased interest rates last month for the third time this year and is widely expected to hike again in December, with no suggestion its tightening policy will cease anytime soon.

Crudeoil

Crudeoil on MCX settled down -3.65% at 5255 after another outsize weekly build in U.S. crude stocks and OPEC’s suggestions the global market could be in a glut by next year. The ominous warning of oversupply was a one-two punch for a market already reeling from a selloff in the stock market, including in shares of energy companies. Hurricane Michael's devastation and its part-shutdown of oil production on the U.S. Gulf Coast were ignored as traders considered the possibility of a market awash in crude by 2019. On the oil front, U.S. crude inventories rose by 6 million barrels last week, the Energy Information Administration said, more than double expectations of a 2.6 million-barrel increase.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries cut its forecast of global demand growth for oil next year for a third straight month, citing headwinds facing the broader economy from trade disputes and volatile emerging markets. OPEC sees the oil market as well supplied and is wary of creating a glut next year, the group's secretary-general said. In the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, producers had cut output by 40 percent on Thursday due to Hurricane Michael, according to the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement, even as some operators began returning crews to offshore platforms. The cuts represent 680,107 barrels per day of oil production, the bureau said, citing reports from 30 companies. Michael crashed ashore Florida on Wednesday as the third most powerful hurricane to strike the U.S. mainland, leaving seven people least. It has since weakened to a tropical storm. Technically now Crudeoil is getting support at 5203 and below same could see a test of 5151 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 5354, a move above could see prices testing 5453.            

Trading Ideas:   

*  Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5151-5453.

*   Crude oil prices tumbled after another outsize weekly build in U.S. crude stocks and OPEC’s suggestions the global market could be in a glut by next year.

*   U.S. crude inventories rose by 6 million barrels last week, the EIA said, more than double expectations of a 2.6 million-barrel increase.

*   UAE started to increase its oil production in the third quarter of this year and expects to further raise its output in October and November to meet market demand.

Naturalgas

Naturalgas on MCX settled down -2.06% at 237.90 prices whipsawed tumbling lower as came under pressure and then rebounding into the close. Inventories increased in line with expectations, but the colder than normal weather than is expected to cover most of the US for the next 2-weeks should increase heating demand driving up the price of natural gas.  The eminence of Hurricane Michael made its way into the mid-Atlantic and is expected to pick up steam as it re-enters the Atlantic Ocean. There were few production installations that were damaged by the storm. Tropical Storm Nadine is heading west, but it does not look like that storm will make it to the US. Earlier this month prices on MCX gained tracking firmness from Nymex natural gas prices which have jumped nearly 15 percent over the past month, rising to roughly $3.30 per million Btu (MMBtu).

The market has clearly grown a little concerned about adequate supplies heading into the winter and that is reflected in natural gas prices rising to their highest point since the beginning of the year. For the week ending on September 28, natural gas inventories stood at 2,866 billion cubic feet (Bcf), or 636 Bcf lower than at the same point a year earlier, as well as 607 Bcf below the five-year average. Inventories dropped to extraordinarily low levels last winter as much of North America became enveloped in exceptionally cold weather. Now technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -24.18% to settled at 3687 while prices down -5 rupees, now Naturalgas is getting support at 232.5 and below same could see a test of 227.2 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 243.9, a move above could see prices testing 250.           

Trading Ideas:

*   Naturalgas trading range for the day is 227.2-250.

*   Natural gas prices whipsawed tumbling lower as riskier asset came under pressure and then rebounding into the close.

*  Inventories increased in line with expectations, but the colder than normal weather than is expected to cover most of the US for the next 2-weeks should increase demand.

*   The Energy Information Administration reported that working gas in storage was 2,956 Bcf as of Friday, October 5, 2018.

Copper

Copper on MCX settled up 0.12% at 459.25 gained on fresh buying, as prices recovered from the day's low after prices caught up in a surge of selling on global stock markets. Stocks slumped and Chinese share indexes hit multi-year lows after Wall Street suffered its worst drubbing in eight months. Investors have been spooked by the prospect of rising U.S. interest rates, a spike in U.S. bond yields and uncertainty over trade and the global economic outlook. These market forces have overpowered a positive supply and demand situation for metals. Also concerns seen as US President Donald Trump warned on Thursday there was much more he could do that would hurt China’s economy further, showing no signs of backing off an escalating trade war with Beijing.

 Last night the dollar fell to low in two weeks as traders pared greenback holdings on lower US Treasury yields and further losses on Wall Street. A weaker-than-forecast rise in US consumer prices in September also reduced bets for a faster pace of interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve, further eroding the dollar's appeal. The euro climbed to a week-high against the dollar as minutes of the ECB's policy meeting last month suggested that policy-makers have not abandoned their plan to end the ECB's 2.6 trillion-euro bond-purchase programme this year. Now a day ahead some data to monitor today include Germany’s consumer prices in September, and US import prices in September and consumer confidence in October. Technically market is getting support at 450.7 and below same could see a test of 442.1 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 464.7, a move above could see prices testing 470.1.  

Trading Ideas:   

*   Copper trading range for the day is 442.1-470.1.

*   Copper remained under pressure tracking a broad sell-off on equity markets as a gloomy macro-economic outlook raised concerns over demand growth.

*   BHP, expects a plant at its Olympic Dam mine to restart this month following repairs.

* The International Monetary Fund cut China's 2019 growth forecast to 6.2 percent from 6.4 percent, leaving the 2018 forecast unchanged at 6.6 percent.

Zinc

Zinc on MCX settled up 0.05% at 196.30 on short covering while LME Zinc was 0.5 percent lower at $2,615.50 after metals were caught in a widespread market sell-off this week and ahead of Chinese trade data later in the session, but it was set for its biggest weekly drop since June as concerns over raw material costs eased. Zinc prices received some support from declines in LME inventories, but was under pressure from the five- and 10-day moving averages which adhered to each other. LME zinc is likely to hover at $2,585-2,635/mt today. A global measure of equity prices fell to a one-year low on Thursday as investors feared an escalating U.S. trade war with China and risks from a recent climb in interest rates. This has overpowered positive supply and demand signals for metals.

The U.S.-China trade dispute has reduced demand for riskier assets and helped push the LME index of industrial metals down 15 percent since June. The euro climbed to a week-high against the dollar as minutes of the ECB's policy meeting last month suggested that policy-makers have not abandoned their plan to end the ECB's 2.6 trillion-euro bond-purchase programme this year. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week but remained near a 49-year low, and the increase appeared unlikely to refuted the view that the US labour market remains strong. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 7,000 to a seasonally adjusted 214,000 for the week ended October 6, the Labor Department said on Thursday.  Technically market is getting support at 193.9 and below same could see a test of 191.5 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 198.5, a move above could see prices testing 200.7.         

Trading Ideas:   

*    Zinc trading range for the day is 191.5-200.7.

*    Zinc settled flat recovered from lows as prices received some support from declines in LME inventories

*    Zinc inventories in LME-registered warehouses fell below 200,000 tonnes from more than 250,000 tonnes in August and are nearing 10-year lows.

*    Stockpiles in Shanghai Futures Exchange storehouses at 29,204 tonnes are the smallest since 2007.

Nickel

 Nickel on MCX settled down -0.75% at 936.20 tracking weakness from Global Base metals prices fell sharply in Shanghai and London in early Asian trade, tracking a broad sell-off on equity markets as a gloomy macro-economic outlook raised concerns over demand growth. Global stocks slumped and Chinese share indexes hit multi-year lows after Wall Street suffered its worst drubbing in eight months. Investors have been spooked by the prospect of rising U.S. interest rates, a spike in U.S. bond yields and uncertainty over trade and the global economic outlook. Last night the dollar fell to low in two weeks as traders pared greenback holdings on lower US Treasury yields and further losses on Wall Street. A weaker-than-forecast rise in US consumer prices in September also reduced bets for a faster pace of interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve, further eroding the dollar's appeal.

The euro climbed to a week-high against the dollar as minutes of the ECB's policy meeting last month suggested that policy-makers have not abandoned their plan to end the ECB's 2.6 trillion-euro bond-purchase programme this year. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week but remained near a 49-year low, and the increase appeared unlikely to refuted the view that the US labour market remains strong. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 7,000 to a seasonally adjusted 214,000 for the week ended October 6, the Labor Department said on Thursday.  Now a day ahead some data to monitor today include Germany’s consumer prices in September, and US import prices in September and consumer confidence in October. Technically market is getting support at 921.8 and below same could see a test of 907.3 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 946.4, a move above could see prices testing 956.5.          

Trading Ideas:   

*   Nickel trading range for the day is 907.3-956.5.

*   Nickel dropped as investors feared an escalating U.S. trade war with China and risks from a recent climb in interest rates.

*   The International Monetary Fund also reduced its global economic growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019 to 3.7 percent from a July forecast of 3.9 percent for both years.

*  US producer prices increased 0.2% in September, reversing an unexpected decline of 0.1% in August.

 Aluminium 

Aluminium on MCX settled down -1.32% at 149.80 on fresh selling tracking weakness from Equity markets which were locked in a sharp sell-off, with concern around how far yields will rise, warnings from the IMF about financial stability risks and continued trade tension all driving uncertainty. Yesterday London Metal Exchange aluminium had edged down but holding above the $2,000 level that has been its base since April. Prices were on course for a loss of nearly 4 percent this week, extending 2018’s drop to 11 percent. Sentiments turned bearish after Rio Tinto is close to restarting a sale process for some of its aluminium assets, including a plant in Iceland, which have been valued at around $350 million, two sources familiar with the matter said.

Also Norway's Norsk Hydro is focused on a return to full output at its Alunorte alumina refinery in Brazil and is not contemplating layoffs there, CEO Svein Richard Brandtzaeg told Reuters. Last night the dollar fell to low in two weeks on Thursday against a basket of currencies as traders pared greenback holdings on lower US Treasury yields and further losses on Wall Street. A weaker-than-forecast rise in US consumer prices in September also reduced bets for a faster pace of interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve, further eroding the dollar's appeal. Most LME base metals rebounded into positive territory on Thursday. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 26.6% to settled at 2827 while prices down -2 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 149.1 and below same could see a test of 148.3 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 151.2, a move above could see prices testing 152.5.              

Trading Ideas:   

*     Aluminium trading range for the day is 148.3-152.5.

*     Aluminium dropped after Norsk Hydro said it would resume half production at its giant Brazilian alumina plant, just days after declaring it would shut down completely.

*    Chinese aluminium exports are expected to surge in coming months and next year after Beijing boosted tax rebates as part of a package to soften the impact of trade war.

*     Norway's Norsk Hydro is focused on a return to full output at its Alunorte alumina refinery in Brazil and is not contemplating layoffs there.

Mentha oil      

Mentha oil on MCX settled down by -1.5% at 1708.6 as spot markets are witnessing low demand amid adequate supply which weighed on prices. Low demand outlook in mentha oil in domestic as well as global market due to expectation of recovery in Indian Rupee against the U.S dollar. Bumper crop harvest has been discounted in the market and market is moving upwards on rising demand from end users. Arrivals in Sambhal stood at 400 drums compared to 350 drum a day ago while in Barabanki supplies rose to 500 drums from 450 drums a day earlier. According to preliminary estimates, mentha oil production in 2018-19 would be 40,000-45,000 ton against last year's production of 35,000 tons.

There could be chances of crop damage to certain extend due to unfavourable weather condition. Mandi Department, which assumes Mantha as an agricultural product and receives the mandatory duty of one and a half percent, the GST of the same commerce tax department, Mentha crop, is not considered as agricultural product and 15 percent GST is charged. Due to this double tax, the price of mentha product increases, whereas synthetic mentha is much cheaper, so many companies making mentha products have started using synthetic mentha. Considering the same misery of Mentha farmers, the committee has demanded to end the mandi duty on Mentha product, reduce GST from 15% to 5% and ban synthetic mentha by giving a memorandum to the Chief Minister. Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1853.50 per 1kg. Spot prices was down by Rs.-37.50/-.Technically now Menthaoil is getting support at 1695.4 and below same could see a test of 1682.2 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 1729.2, a move above could see prices testing 1749.8.              

Trading Ideas:   

*    Menthaoil trading range for the day is 1682.2-1749.8.

*    Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1853.50 per 1kg. Spot prices was down by Rs.-37.50/-.

*    Mentha oil dropped as spot markets are witnessing low demand amid adequate supply which weighed on prices.

*    Bumper crop harvest has been discounted in the market and market is moving upwards on rising demand from end users.

*    Arrivals in Sambhal stood at 400 drums compared to 350 drum a day ago while in Barabanki supplies rose to 500 drums from 450 drums a day earlier.

Soyabean

Soyabean on NCDEX settled down by -0.4% at 3208 on increased crop output and higher supplies of new crop. Total arrivals across the country stood around 565,000 bags, around 225,000 bags in Madhya Pradesh, 150,000 bags in Maharashtra, 140,000 bags in Rajasthan and 50,000 bags in other states. Industry body SOPA projected India's 2018-19 soybean output higher at 11.48 million ton versus 8.35 million ton a year ago. India's soybean output is estimated at 11.48 million ton during 2018-19 as against 8.35 million ton a year ago. Also, agriculture ministry projected 2018-19 soybean output at 13.46 million ton, up 22.5% on year. Soybean arrivals across the country stood around 400,000 bags while Madhya Pradesh markets were closed.

The Soybean Processors Association of India's (SOPA) chairman, Davish Jain has said that soymeal export of India is likely to jump as much as 70% in 2018/19 from a year ago, on the back of expected purchases from the world’s biggest soybean buyer China. Jain said depreciation in the rupee and a jump in soybean output will help India gain market share in China, which is looking for new suppliers after imposing tariffs on key US farm commodities as part of a Sino-US trade row. He added that China's market is huge and it is likely to open for India in the next two-three months.  At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  17 Rupees to 3214 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.74% to settled at 130030 while prices down -13 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 3198 and below same could see a test of 3188 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 3216, a move above could see prices testing 3224.         

Trading Ideas:   

*     Soyabean trading range for the day is 3188-3224.

*    Soyabean prices dropped on increased crop output and higher supplies of new crop.

*    Industry body SOPA projected India's 2018-19 soybean output higher at 11.48 million ton versus 8.35 million ton a year ago.

*   NCDEX accredited warehouses soyabean stocks gained by 1709 tonnes to 4372 tonnes.

*     At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  17 Rupees to 3214 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Ref.Soyaoil 

Ref.Soyaoil on NCDEX settled up by 0.14% at 754 despite of higher stock positions in the country coupled with lower based import prices. According to an official notification, government decreases base import prices of all edible oils. For the first fortnight of October, base import price of crude soyoil cut to $701 per tn from $714 per tn. As per the data from SEA, import of vegetable (cooking) oils in August jumped to 15.12 lakh tonnes from 11.19 lakh tonnes in July, as pipelines were dried up due to lesser import during June and July 2018. India’s oilmeal exports for the month of September 2018 reported a decline of about 73 per cent, the provisional data released by the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA) showed.

The export of oilmeals in September 2018, provisionally reported at 81,511 tonnes as compared to 298,182 tonnes in September 2017, is down by 73 per cent. The overall export between April to September 2018 was reported at 1,403,382 tonnes compared to 1,284,788 tonnes during the same period last year, rising 9 per cent, an SEA statement said. However, provisional data revealed a decline in exports to major destinations such as South Korea, which imported 10,037 tonnes of oilmeal in September 2018, nearly 89 per cent less as against 89,856 tonnes in September 2017. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 747 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.14% to settled at 35510 while prices up 1.05 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 750 and below same could see a test of 746 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 756, a move above could see prices testing 758.         

Trading Ideas:   

*    Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 746-758.

*    Ref.Soyaoil gained despite of higher stock positions in the country coupled with lower based import prices.

*     For the first fortnight of October, base import price of crude soyoil cut to $701 per tn from $714 per tn.

*    India’s oilmeal exports for the month of September 2018 reported a decline of about 73 per cent.

*     At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 747 Rupees per 10 kgs.

 Crude palm Oil 

Crude palm Oil on MCX settled down by -0.41% at 585.8 amid higher stocks in the country and weak CPO prices in international markets. Malaysia's palm oil inventories edged up in September to their highest in eight months, surpassing market expectations as production levels came in higher than exports despite a surge in overseas demand, government data showed. Stockpiles in the world's No.2 producer and exporter of palm oil, used to make products ranging from cooking oil to chocolate, rose 1.5 percent from the previous month to 2.54 million tonnes, according to the data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB). India's demand was also stoked by stronger buying ahead of the Hindu festival of Diwali celebrated in early November, while a weaker ringgit made palm oil more affordable for Chinese buyers.

The MPOB also reported that September production rose 14.4 percent from August to its strongest in 10 months at 1.85 million tonnes. Indonesian palm oil production is expected to hit 40 million tonnes in 2018, up from an earlier forecast of 38.5 million tonnes. Due to the seasonal rise in palm oil production at the end of the year, Mistry said palm stocks for the last quarter of 2018 "look heavy”. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for October 1 – 10 fell 39.3 percent to 297,265 tonnes from 489,492 tonnes shipped during September 1 – 10, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.38% to settled at 5844 while prices down -2.4 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 582.7 and below same could see a test of 579.7 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 587.4, a move above could see prices testing 589.1.               

Trading Ideas:   

*   CPO trading range for the day is 579.7-589.1.

*   Crude palm oil dropped amid higher stocks in the country and weak CPO prices in international markets.

*    Malaysia's palm oil inventories edged up in September to their highest in eight months, surpassing market expectations as production levels came in higher than exports.

*      Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for October 1 – 10 fell 39.3 percent to 297,265 tonnes from 489,492 tonnes shipped during September 1 – 10.

*  Crude palm oil prices in spot market dropped by 5.20 rupees and settled at 586.00 rupees.

 Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed on NCDEX settled down by -0.34% at 4139 on reports of bumper oilseed crop in kharif and there are sufficient stocks in the physical market.  Moreover, pending decisions for meal exports to China is also making the market to fallThe minimum support price for mustard increased by 200 rupees to 4,200 rupees per 100 kg by the govt. As per SEA data, India's rapeseed meal exports up 24% on year to 88,236 tn in August due to good export demand. For Apr-Aug, India's rape meal exports up by 107% on year at 4.90 lt. According to MOPA, country crushed about 5 lt of mustard in September, 18% higher on year. In 2018, about 49 lakh tonnes of mustard were crushed, up 13.3% on year.

The area under the mustard crop across the country may decline 10% on year in 2018-19 (Jul-Jun) owing to patchy rainfall in major growing regions. Weak monsoon rain in some parts of Rajasthan (the largest producer) is inadequate to support the proper vegetative growth of mustard crop. Farmers may not go for higher area this year. Even area under the crop would fall by around 10% from last year. So far this monsoon season, rains in Rajasthan have been 6% below normal, according to India Meteorological Department.   In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -5 Rupees to end at 4288.95 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.5% to settled at 62410 while prices down -14 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 4127 and below same could see a test of 4116 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 4149, a move above could see prices testing 4160.           

Trading Ideas:   

*     Rmseed trading range for the day is 4116-4160.

*    Mustard seed dropped on profit booking after prices gained on expectation of improved export demand for meal.

*    The minimum support price for mustard increased by 200 rupees to 4,200 rupees per 100 kg by the govt.

*    NCDEX accredited warehouses mustard seed stocks gained by 334 tonnes to 18152 tonnes.

*   In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -5 Rupees to end at 4288.95 Rupees per 100 kg.

Turmeric

Turmeric on NCDEX settled down by -0.42% at 6618 on profit booking after prices gained amid strong demand in the physical market and lower arrivals. Moreover, this season exports are likely to be higher for the best quality produce. Meanwhile, the arrivals are reported lower as the supply of poor quality turmeric is in larger amount for which there is no demand from the stockists.  However, upside seen limited due to improved sowing in turmeric growing areas of Tamilnadu, Karnataka and Maharashtra. Turmeric arrivals in Sangli mandi were 1,000-1,200 bags (60 Kg/bag) compared to 1,500 bags. Turmeric was sown on 18,000 hectares till October 3 compared to 15,000 hectares in the same period a year ago. In Telangana, turmeric sowing was reported at 47,791 hectares as compared to 44,956 hectares in the corresponding period last year. Current sowing stands at 87% of normal for the season.

Normal area reported 54,878 hectares. In Andhra Pradesh, Turmeric sowing reported 17,778 hectares as compared to 14,575 hectares in the corresponding period last year, 99% sowing completed from season normal. Among major turmeric growing districts, Visakhapatnam has reported 5,646 hectares in acreage compared to last year’s 3,524 hectares, Guntur has reported 3,966 hectares in acreage compared to last year’s 4,270 hectares, YSR Kadapa has reported 3,137 hectares in acreage compared to last year’s 2,909 hectares and Krishna has reported 2,187 hectares in acreage compared to last year’s 1,778 hectares.  In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6828.95 Rupees dropped -25 Rupees.Technically now Turmeric is getting support at 6578 and below same could see a test of 6540 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 6676, a move above could see prices testing 6736.             

Trading Ideas:   

*      Turmeric trading range for the day is 6540-6736.

*       Turmeric dropped on profit booking after prices gained amid strong demand in the physical market and lower arrivals.

*        Moreover, this season exports are likely to be higher for the best quality produce.

*        NCDEX accredited warehouses turmeric stocks gained by 179 tonnes to 2861 tonnes.

*          In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6828.95 Rupees dropped -25 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera on NCDEX settled up by 0.33% at 19485 on short covering after prices dropped amid good stocks and higher prices in the domestic market. India's jeera exports have been on a rise as the country has become the sole supplier in the world market. Jeera from Turkey is expensive as it is offering jeera at $3,200 per ton, the costliest as of now. Export of jeera surged 74.03% to 12,299 tons in the month of July, compared to 7,067 tons in the same period a year ago. Meanwhile, jeera arrivals in Unjha mandi, Gujarat, was 7,160 bags, compared to 5,282 bags. In the physical market, stockists have started to clear their stocks before the new sowing season starts in next two months. According to India Meteorological Department, the state received 484.6 mm of rains so far, 28% below the normal weighted average of 672.7 mm. Jeera buying in the spot market is sluggish as traders are not ready to buy produce at higher prices.

Jeera arrivals of 3,258 bags were seen in Unjha mandi, Gujarat compared to 2,052 bags. As per trade information, crop damaged reported in Syria and Turkey due to heavy rainfall in support Indian Jeera in International market. Quality wise (due to heavy rainfall) and price wise Indian Jeera more affordable than other producing country. Lower Jeera supply reported in the spot market during the period, as stockists were holding back their stocks on expectations of higher prices in coming days.  In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -66.65 Rupees to end at 19433.35 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically now Jeera is getting support at 19320 and below same could see a test of 19160 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 19580, a move above could see prices testing 19680.  

Trading Ideas:   

*    Jeera trading range for the day is 19160-19680.

*       Jeera prices gained on short covering after prices dropped amid good stocks and higher prices in the domestic market.

*      Lower Jeera supply reported in the spot market during the period, as stockists were holding back their stocks on expectations of higher prices in coming days.

*         NCDEX accredited warehouses jeera stocks gained by 121 tonnes to 2440 tonnes.

*          In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -66.65 Rupees to end at 19433.35 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cardamom

Cardamom on MCX settled down by -0.3% at 1363.9 on profit booking after prices gained because of heavy loses to crop due to recent floods and good export hopes after the steep fall in rupee. Though there is a concern about demand from UAE due to strict pesticide rule, demand from other countries is likely to be robust because of fall in rupee. Export of cardamom from the country during 2017-18 spurted 48% to 5,680 ton from 3,850 ton a year ago.  Volume wise exports recorded a growth of 45% at Rs 6.09 billion though average per unit prices were down, data from Spices Board showed.

Arrivals of the new crop of cardamom have started at the auction centres in Bodinayakanur in Tamil Nadu and Vandanmedu in Kerala. Around 25 tn of new arrivals are coming at auctions daily, which is 25-30% of the total arrivals. Heavy showers for a prolonged period have led to fungal diseases in plantations. As of Monday, plantations spread over 1,337.60 ha in Kerala's Idukki district had been damaged, according to the state's farm department. Despite record higher exports in 2017-18, exports figure in 2018-19 may not touch that volume as there are issues regarding pesticide to the stocks exported to Saudi Arabia.    Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.78% to settled at 185 while prices down -4.1 rupees, now Cardamom is getting support at 1339 and below same could see a test of 1314.2 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 1381.8, a move above could see prices testing 1399.8.              

Trading Ideas:   

*       Cardamom trading range for the day is 1314.2-1399.8.

*      Cardamom prices dropped on profit booking after prices gained because of heavy loses to crop due to recent floods and good export hopes.

*    Despite last year’s record exports, exports in the current year are likely to be affected due to strict measures by Saudi Arabia due to pesticide issue.

*     Around 25 tn of new arrivals are coming at auctions daily, which is 25-30% of the total arrivals.

*    Cardamom prices in spot market dropped by 10.00 rupees and settled at 1330.70 rupees. 

Cotton

 Cotton on MCX settled up by 0.09% at 22370 as CAI projected fall in output in its first cotton estimate while the demand is seen modest in the physical market. Cotton Association of India (CAI) trimmed cotton crop estimates for 2018-19 season to 34.8 million bales from 36.5 million bales in 2017-18. Cotton sowing was reported at 12.06 million hectares for 2018-19 compared to 12.17 million hectare last year, according to Central government data. Moreover, Gujarat, the largest cotton growing state reported 9 million bales of cotton for 2018-19 crop season against 10.5 million bales in the last year while Maharashtra sees the decline at 8.1 million bales compared to 8.3 million bales a year ago.

Export demand may also rise as cotton yarn exports during fourth quarter of FY19 driven by a more than two-fold increase in exports to China, is partly attributable to the low base effect, as exports were down by 56% in the fourth quarter of FY18, it has also been driven by competitive Indian cotton and yarn prices, reports said. The drop in output could limit exports from the world’s biggest producer of the fibre amid rising demand from top consumer China and in turn support global prices, which are hovering near their lowest level in more than nine months hit last week. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.3% to settled at 2737 while prices up 20 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 22290 and below same could see a test of 22220 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 22420, a move above could see prices testing 22480.        

Trading Ideas:   

*     Cotton trading range for the day is 22220-22480.

*    Cotton prices gained as CAI projected fall in output in its first cotton estimate while the demand is seen modest in the physical market.

*     CAI trimmed cotton crop estimates for 2018-19 season to 34.8 million bales from 36.5 million bales in 2017-18.

*   Cotton sowing was reported at 12.06 million hectares for 2018-19 compared to 12.17 million hectare last year.

*    Cotton prices in spot market gained by 110.00 rupees and settled at 22070.00 rupees. 

               

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